While the Divisional round games didn’t live up to the Wildcard ones in terms of excitement and drama, there were more than enough thrills and spills to keep us satiated. The most shocking encounter was undoubtedly the top-seeded Ravens being toppled by the Titans, but the rousing Chiefs comeback, the gritty Packers/Seahawks duel and the 49ers exercising their dominance for all to see were all highly entertaining. A personal record of 2-2 against the spread is an improvement on the 0-4 week I endured in the Wild Card round, at least, but this playoff field has proved tricky to forecast.
But we go again for the Conference championship clashes. With just two games on the docket, the Vegas sharps have ample opportunity to drill down and find every edge. Picking the right spots is crucial not only this week but throughout the playoffs. My predecessor on this column Jeff Pasquino often found success during the postseason with this column. My hope is that I can finish strong over the last three playoff games.
As you would expect at this point in the playoffs when the competition gets stiffer, the favorites are comfortably touchdown-plus in terms of points. However, we would be foolish to dismiss either underdog – Tennessee or Green Bay – after the wild ride we have been on in the past two weeks.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
TENNESSEE TITANS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) (Over/Under 52)
(Sunday 3:05 pm Eastern, CBS)
Last week in Baltimore, Derrick Henry wrote his name in the history books, becoming the first player in NFL history with at least 1,250 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns over any eight-game stretch. The back many are labeling as the league’s best after his epic run of games will be heavily relied upon this week in Kansas City. Since 1990, rushing for over 100 yards in the conference championship game has led to victories: such teams are 29-16 straight up and 31-13-3 against the spread. As the key statistic below shows, the Chiefs haven’t exactly been stout against the run, giving up 4.9 yards per tote.
As good as Henry has been, however, Ryan Tannehill is likely to be asked to take on more responsibility this week. The Chiefs’ explosive offense will force Tannehill and the Titans’ passing game – in hibernation this postseason for the most part – to extend themselves. In two postseason clashes, Tannehill has completed just 15 passes on 29 attempts. His efficiency has been outstanding, but he will need that well-rested arm to function at a high level with Patrick Mahomes II on the other side. Defensively, the Titans executed a well-conceived game plan to limit Lamar Jackson; even then, the MVP candidate rushed for over 140 yards. Mahomes is not the rushing threat Jackson is, of course, but he is a much better passer and will test the Titans defense at all levels. The early season meeting of these teams saw Mahomes throw for 446 yards on this unit – and that was his first game back from a kneecap dislocation.
The ingenuity of Mahomes – dragging the foot as he crossed the line of scrimmage for the third Travis Kelce touchdown pass – continues to astound the NFL world. It would be fitting after last season’s championship game disappointment for such a gifted young player to head to the Super Bowl. And yet the numbers suggest it may be a tough path. Since 1990, teams that have scored 40 or more points in the Divisional round have gone 6-12-1 against the spread in the Championship round, with home teams going just 3-9. The Chiefs will need to stay aggressive and attack the Titans with Kelce, Tyreek Hill and others, especially at the linebacker level, where the match-ups will be favorable.
The Chiefs allow more than 129 rushing yards per game at home, a statistic that they will be keenly aware of with King Henry coming to town. There is a difference between knowing what is coming and stopping it, though, and no team has been able to successfully stymie Henry and the Titans offensive line over the past two months. The best formula for Kansas City, therefore, appears to be one of building a lead and forcing the Titans out of their comfort zone. If Tannehill – as good as he has been – is forced to air it out 40+ times, the likelihood of an upset goes way down. A clean game will be a huge emphasis for Andy Reid, who will be determined to get his team over the hump and into the Super Bowl. Kansas City 27 Tennessee 21.
Key stats:
- Chief concerns: The Titans have averaged 5.1 yards per rush and have run the ball on 49.29% of plays, while the Chiefs have allowed 4.9 yards per rush this season.
- Titanic effort required: The Chiefs offense is averaging 6.3 yards per play and 0.486 points per play. Their average scoring margin is +9.6 points compared to Tennessee’s +5.2.
Pick: Tennessee
GREEN BAY PACKERS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-7 to -7.5) (Over/Under 45)
(Sunday 6:40 pm Eastern, FOX)
As the Packers look back on the film of their Week 12 clash with the 49ers this week, they will be reminded how dominant the home team was. It was a comprehensive demolition job, with Aaron Rodgers limited to 104 passing yards and racking up 37 points. Since then, the Packers have won every game, including an impressive one last week against the never-say-die Seahawks. The underdog mentality is not one the 13-3 Packers assumed much during the regular season, but it is a powerful one in the playoffs if channeled correctly. It is rare that you see a second meeting between non-division opponents turn out the same way.
Green Bay’s offense has morphed into a unit that wins in different ways, not simply on the arm of Rodgers. Aaron Jones’ hard-charging style has meshed well with a veteran offensive line; Davante Adams has made yards-after-catch plays to ignite things; even Jimmy Graham has stepped up. Defensively, this team has found its identity: one of grit, toughness and a mentality that every yard an opponent earns is going to be tough. The blueprint for success in San Francisco will start with defense – and specifically containing the 49ers’ varied rushing attack that has given opponents fits. Do that, and suddenly you have an advantage in the quarterback duel with the veteran Rodgers against Jimmy Garoppolo, playing in the biggest game of his life.
Home has been a happy hunting ground for the 49ers this season, going 8-1 straight up and 6-3 against the spread at Levi’s Stadium. The short work they made of the Vikings was predictable; this week may not be so straightforward. Kyle Shanahan’s offense’s utilization of pre-snap motion – no team does it more – creates such uncertainty at the linebacker level, opening easier throws for Garoppolo. Managing the quarterback’s emotions will be a test of the young coach’s abilities in such a massive game. Garoppolo has thrown 13 interceptions this season and tends to misread defenses at the second level, something the Packers will be targeting. Compare that to Rodgers, who has thrown just four picks, and suddenly the turnover ratio could be a major factor.
When you have the defense the 49ers have, however, such mistakes by the quarterback are not as defining in the scope of the game. The depth available to defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is a massive edge in this match-up. Limiting the Packers’ rushing attack will be a key priority for this unit; as good as Rodgers is, he is not the game-changing player he used to be, and he requires a solid base with the ground game. The omens are good here for the 49ers to advance to the Super Bowl: since 1970, home teams are 32-17 straight up in the title game and the favorites have gone 26-22-1 against the spread. San Francisco has gone 4-5 at home in the NFC Championship. The smart bet is that they will get back to .500 this Sunday. San Francisco 28 Green Bay 14.
Key stats:
- Margin of victory: San Francisco is just 4-4-1 against the spread as the home team in 2019, though their average margin of victory is 13.2 points.
- Hope for the Pack: In the last 10 years, visitors have shown more fight in the NFC title game as the home team was only able to produce a 6-4 record. However, the last four wins by road teams came by seven points or less, with three decided by exactly three points.
Pick: San Francisco
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Tennessee, San Francisco
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND PLAYS
With only two games on the slate this week, we have an opportunity to play around with teasers, prop bets and more. In lieu of the usual 1-3 star system, we will focus on the Best Bets and then some extras.
* BEST BETS *
- CHAMPIONSHIP DOUBLE DIP (1.12-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- LINE / TOTAL POINTS DOUBLE (2.6-1 ODDS):
- TENNESSEE (+7.5) & UNDER 51.5
** PROP BETS **
- ANY TIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER (ONE PER TEAM):
- A.J. BROWN (TITANS) – 7/5
- DEMARCUS ROBINSON (CHIEFS) – 9/2
- DAVANTE ADAMS (PACKERS) – 7/5
- KENDRICK BOURNE (49ers) – 13/5
- PASSING YARDS DOUBLE (2.25-1 ODDS):
- JIMMY GAROPPOLO UNDER 246.5 YARDS
- AARON RODGERS UNDER 238.5 YARDS
- RUSHING YARDS DOUBLE (2.33-1 ODDS):
- DAMIEN WILLIAMS OVER 57.5 YARDS
- AARON JONES UNDER 67.5 YARDS
RESULTS
Last Week / Postseason / Regular Season
- LAST WEEK: 2-2
- POSTSEASON OVERALL: 2-6
- REGULAR SEASON OVERALL: 135-131 (52.7%)
- BEST BETS: 32-33 (49.1%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 44-44 (50%), last week 2-2
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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