Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
At this point in the season, hopefully you have accumulated a decent bankroll and are actively seeking opportunities to expand said bankroll. It is never a straightforward exercise to build a fortune wagering on this fickle game of pro football, but in my experience, it gets easier as the season wears on.
The Las Vegas lines remain efficient, but at times waning team motivations and quarterback and coaching unrest, among other things, can open some windows for us. Picking your spot is the key; there is no shame in avoiding a game completely if you feel the line is right where it should be. Seek edges wherever you can find them, though.
The bye teams this week are the Broncos, Texans, Patriots, Jaguars, Eagles and Redskins.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday) LA CHARGERS (-1) at OAKLAND (Over/Under 47.5)
The Chargers proved all the doubters wrong last week, throttling the much-fancied Green Bay Packers in front of a majority Cheesehead crowd. Suddenly, the marquee players are showing up for Los Angeles – Hunter Henry is fully healthy and is as talented as any tight end in football; Melvin Gordon has some juice back in his legs; Russell Okung is back protecting Philip Rivers’ blind side; Melvin Ingram III is injecting some life into the pass rush. All of this points to a resurgent team poised to go on a run in an AFC that is ripe for the picking.
And yet we have seen this script before with the Chargers on so many occasions. A circle the wagons home win could be followed by a major disappointment. The Raiders, currently an underdog according to Vegas, will relish in creating said upset. Jon Gruden, ever the shrewd tactician, will remind his players of how good this Chargers team is, using the Packers win as an example. While Rivers may have his moments to carve the Raiders up – most every quarterback has against Oakland – the spot here favors the home team. The short week tends to favor the team that doesn’t have to travel. Derek Carr is more than capable of trading blows with Rivers, so take the points in this intriguing AFC West duel.
Pick: Oakland
BALTIMORE (-10) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 46.5)
The season’s first meeting between these teams was closer than many predicted, with the Ravens winning by only six points at home. Things have changed since then. Cincinnati’s head coach Zac Taylor made the decision during the team’s bye week to bench veteran starting quarterback Andy Dalton, handing the job to rookie Ryan Finley. It remains to be seen what kind of effect the move will have on the locker room. It is entirely possible that players will naturally let their effort level drop in protest, or simply because this is a winless team on the road to nowhere (except the number one pick in April’s NFL Draft).
The Ravens, therefore, make perfect sense as 10-point favorites, even on the road. John Harbaugh has done a masterful job of pivoting the offense to unlock the tremendous talents of Lamar Jackson, who gave the Patriots fits last week. Baltimore is in prime position to secure a bye in the playoffs and could even pip New England to the number one seed if things fall in place, now that they own the tiebreaker. Laying the 10 points is a tough pill to swallow, but this is a great spot for the road team.
Pick: Baltimore
BUFFALO at CLEVELAND (-2) (Over/Under 41.5)
The lookahead forecast for Cleveland calls for high winds and light rain as the winter of discontent sets in for the beleaguered Browns faithful. The loss to Denver basically put the beginnings of a nail in the coffin that is their season, but a late rally was the order of the day for them last season; could they repeat the feat in 2019? The conditions here will call for a steady helping of Nick Chubb, who has been one of the standout players offensively in an otherwise forgettable campaign. Baker Mayfield has simply not played well enough, and there is a risk of a meltdown between him and his receivers if things do not improve.
The Bills are 6-2 and riding high. Realistically, a .500 record down the stretch will get them into the playoffs in an AFC field that is crying out for teams to fill the wildcard spots. This will be a decent challenge on the road for this team after largely facing inferior opponents thus far. Josh Allen doesn’t inspire much confidence with his play, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see an implosion by one or both quarterbacks in this game. Defenses should dominate, so the under 41.5 looks the most tempting option.
Pick: Cleveland
DETROIT at CHICAGO (-3) (Over/Under 43)
A de-facto elimination game in the NFC playoff picture pits the Lions, who just can’t get out of their own way at times, against the Bears, whose way has been clouded by ineptitude at the quarterback position. Matt Nagy must be losing his patience with Mitchell Trubisky who, if not for draft pedigree, would likely have been ousted from this job many moons ago. The Bears defense kept them in the game against Philadelphia; Trubisky couldn’t keep up his end of the deal, though. The clock is about to strike midnight on Trubisky’s time as a starter – and it could come as early as this week.
The Lions will fancy their chances of stealing a march on Chicago in Soldier Field, though conditions (36F with 13mph winds) don’t exactly suit a team as pass-happy as they are. Matt Patricia’s defense has been toothless for the most part this season; even Trubisky might be eyeing up the Lions and picturing a big game to get his career back on track. The Bears have shown a commitment to the run with David Montgomery that may swing this one in their favor. An unbalanced offensive approach will not yield good results against a Chicago defense that is, while certainly not at 2018 levels, still a formidable unit.
Pick: Chicago
NY GIANTS (-2.5) at NY JETS (Over/Under 43)
Insert the obligatory black cat cursing the Giants joke here. The Giants went toe to toe with the Cowboys for long stretches on Monday night, but ultimately they lacked the composure, precision, and in-game intelligence in key situations to steal a win from their division rivals. Buried at 2-7, the season of evaluation has begun for Big Blue, as catty fans hiss derisively at the on-field product.
The Jets are not faring much better. In fact, the black cat’s presence could curse both these teams in their shared home stadium of MetLife. Losing to the Dolphins represents a significant, and perhaps irreparable, setback in the Adam Gase experiment. The concern is that this team has lost faith – in its coach, in the front office and maybe even in the developing quarterback. As talented as Sam Darnold is, he simply hasn’t had the infrastructure around him to grow. The soil, if you will, is rotten – and this beautiful plant hasn’t been allowed to get enough sunshine.
Pick: New York Giants
KANSAS CITY (-4) at TENNESSEE (Over/Under 43.5)
The NFL has been a less entertaining place without the skills of Patrick Mahomes II. If the rambunctious, bouncing Mahomes we saw after the Chiefs’ win at the buzzer last week is anything to go by, the quarterback is ready to return. Matt Moore has done an admirable job in the absence of the superstar passer, ably guiding the offense and keeping things on schedule, with Andy Reid’s masterful play-calling helping. The Chiefs are only four-point road favorites, perhaps an acknowledgment by Vegas that Mahomes may not be fully himself.
The Titans could certainly provide some resistance, especially considering how porous the Chiefs defense has been against the run. To Kansas City’s credit, however, they limited the explosive Dalvin Cook last week; this week, it will be the power of Derrick Henry they will have to contend with. Ryan Tannehill continues to provide this team with the best overall option at quarterback, but if this comes down to an arms race there will be only one winner. Tennessee is 3-2 against the spread as the home underdog under Mike Vrabel. If the Titans can get this on their script, it will be a tight affair.
Pick: Tennessee
ARIZONA at TAMPA BAY (-5) (Over/Under 54)
The Buccaneers must have felt sick in the locker room moments after yet another narrow loss. Bruce Arians’ team has made a habit of falling short in close games this season, though there were bright spots in the form of a gunslinging Jameis Winston and the fact they went toe to toe with the Seahawks in their house. Still, there are no moral victories in the NFL – and the Bucs are 2-6 and out of contention. The visit of the Cardinals may lift their spirits, however. Arizona’s defense has been a leaky unit as of late, their bullish performance against the undefeated 49ers notwithstanding. The Bucs pass rush, with the NFL’s sack leader Shaquil Barrett creating havoc, could have a field day against the Arizona offensive line as well.
And yet the Cardinals are 3-1 as the away team against the spread this season, with an offense that causes as many defensive headaches because of its pace as its ingenuity. With Tampa Bay’s defense doing its best sieve impression over the past few weeks, it is not outside the realm of possibility that Arizona could win this game outright, let alone cover a five-point spread. Kyler Murray could give the Bucs some flashbacks of Russell Wilson with his pocket movement and aggressive downfield mentality.
Pick: Arizona
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS (-12) (Over/Under 51.5)
The Saints have covered 54% of the time at home in the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era, with an average margin of victory of 6.5 points. Vegas has adjusted upward over the years, knowing full well that often when it rains, it also pours for visitors to the Superdome. Drew Brees has had an extra week of rest after returning prior to the bye, showing scant signs of rust in a demolition of the Cardinals. The home stretch for New Orleans looks favorable, so they may be able to take their foot off the pedal here by the second half.
It is expected that Matt Ryan will return from an ankle injury, but nothing is assured. Assuming Ryan plays, the Falcons are at least a live underdog with a 12-point spread. If you can rely on one thing with Atlanta, it is that their offense will be respectable. A back-door cover is very much in play with the array of weapons at their disposal. The defense is the major malfunction on this team, which could scupper any bet. The smart option is no play, but the 12 points are too tempting if you are taking a side.
Pick: Atlanta
MIAMI at INDIANAPOLIS (-12) (Over/Under 43.5)
Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed three touchdowns in a convincing victory over the Jets last week, finally getting Miami out of their barren winless run. While the pride hasn’t exactly been restored, the Dolphins – and head coach Brian Flores – should get some credit for bringing a game effort each week. The same can’t be said for their division rival Jets. Fitzpatrick and the Miami offense could create some problems here for Indianapolis, a team that struggled to put away Joe Flacco and the Broncos at home. The suspension of Mark Walton is a slight blow, but it not fatal by any means; if Miami can keep it close into the third quarter, this game could still be in play.
Much will depend on whether it is Jacoby Brissett (MCL strain) or Brian Hoyer (a.k.a. Hoyer The Destroyer) in the saddle for the Colts. Neither quarterback inspires a ton of confidence, but Brissett would be the preferable option. Still, a hobbled Brissett will not intimidate the Dolphins’ patchwork defense. When you consider the shaky play of Adam Vinatieri, suddenly the 12-point line looks ridiculous. For the second week in a row, I’m riding with the Dolphins.
Pick: Miami
LA RAMS (-4) at PITTSBURGH (Over/Under 45.5)
The Rams come off their bye with a tough task ahead of them: catching up with division rivals San Francisco (8-0) and Seattle (7-2) and booking a place in the crowded NFC playoff picture. The Super Bowl loser curse has struck for this team, though they have steadied the ship in recent weeks. The addition of Jalen Ramsey has had a domino effect of positivity and swagger on the defense, a unit that badly needed something – anything – to give them a boost. It should be noted that the Rams are 10-6 (62.5%) against the spread as the away favorite under Sean McVay.
Pittsburgh’s prayers were answered last week when Adam Vinatieri’s game-winning field goal attempt went way wide, keeping them in the AFC playoff race at 4-4. Mason Rudolph continues to get by, but how long before the Steelers pull the plug and realize he lacks a certain feel, a je ne sais quoi, for the position that he may never find. The James Conner injury situation bears watching; his presence could be a boon for a Steelers offense that needs to run the ball to win. The defense gives Pittsburgh a chance in any game – and certainly against a quarterback like Jared Goff, whose play against pressure this season has been subpar. It’s set to be 41F and windy in Heinz Field – not a great spot for the men from L.A.
Pick: Pittsburgh
CAROLINA at GREEN BAY (-6) (Over/Under 48)
It makes sense that Vegas has placed its faith in the Packers with a six-point spread. After all, Green Bay has covered the spread as the home team 59.5% of the time since 2010. As the home favorite, that number shoots up to 62.9%. In other words, it is a tall task to get the better of the Pack at Lambeau Field. Green Bay laid an egg in Los Angeles last week, resulting in one of the upsets of the season and undoubtedly infuriating many elimination pool competitors. A bounce-back could be on the cards on a day that is expected to be frigid (or as they know it in Wisconsin, ‘football weather’).
The Panthers will feel they can hold their own with the Packers. Ron Rivera’s team is a resilient bunch, with a nice mix of veterans and young up-and-comers. Carolina has few injury concerns coming into this game, apart from the obvious one in Cam Newton. Watch the status of standout cornerback James Bradberry, however; he injured his groin last week and could be iffy for this clash. If Bradberry misses out, Aaron Rodgers could have a field day. Much like the San Francisco road test, Kyle Allen will have a lot thrown at him here. It is too early in his career to expect the young passer to climb this mountain.
Pick: Green Bay
(Sunday Night) MINNESOTA at DALLAS (-3) (Over/Under 47)
The Vikings faltered last week in Kansas City. And while there is no shame losing at Arrowhead, the narrative surrounding Kirk Cousins – that he can’t win the ‘big’ games’ – will persist, rightly or wrongly. It comes with the territory when you are an $84m man. Losing Adam Thielen hurts this offense, which will force a pivot to more 12 personnel featuring rookie tight end Irv Smith Jr. Dalvin Cook will get his, but the reason this offense was clicking was partially due to the synergy of run and pass games; without Thielen, that becomes more difficult.
A trek to Dallas isn’t exactly a simple task for Cousins and Company, especially in prime time. It should be noted that the Cowboys have covered just 52.2% of the time at home with Dak Prescott as their quarterback. Often Vegas will inflate a public team like the Cowboys when the whole NFL world is watching, but three points is a smart line and makes sense considering how well-matched these two NFC playoff contenders are. It is bound to be a tight affair and in that case, the wise move is to side with the home team.
Pick: Dallas
(Monday Night) SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) (Over/Under 44.5)
Game of the Week? More like Game of the Year. This, ladies and gentlemen, could even be a preview of the eventual NFC Championship game. The 49ers have dominated most opponents this season, but how will they fare against the man many believe is the MVP through nine weeks in Russell Wilson? The Seahawks have many holes on their roster, but Wilson is the tide that lifts all ships, giving them a chance in any game – even this one in a tough spot on the road.
Kyle Shanahan’s offense puts defenses in a bind with motion, disguise, and excellent eye manipulation by Jimmy Garoppolo. This is not the Legion of Boom defense; far from it, in fact. The Seahawks defense hasn’t offered much resistance to offenses this season and could open the gates for the 49ers. The question is how effective Wilson will be able to counter. If this turns into a classic Monday Night Football barnburner, Wilson’s experience could prove a significant edge. Six points feels too much.
Pick: Seattle
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Though we may have more clarity after the season’s midway point, the challenges keep coming as the lines get sharper. Week 9 presented its fair share of upsets and near-things from a gambling perspective, but now is not the time to be cowed. With a lot of efficient lines this week – and few open to teasers – we are going to focus on the best spreads:
- 1 OAKLAND (+1) vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
- 2 GREEN BAY (-6) vs. CAROLINA
- 3 DALLAS (-3) vs. MINNESOTA
- 4 SEATTLE (+6) at SAN FRANCISCO
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 10 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- SEATTLE (+6)
- DALLAS (-3)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 3-TEAM SPREAD BET (5.67-1 ODDS):
- OAKLAND (+1)
- SEATTLE (+6)
- DALLAS (-3)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- GREEN BAY (-6)
- OAKLAND (+1)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Dallas, Green Bay, Oakland, Seattle, Miami
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 8-6
- SEASON OVERALL: 70-65 (51.8%)
- BEST BETS: 16-17 (48.2%), last week 2-2
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 23-17 (57%), last week 3-2
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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