Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Just as we think we have clarity on this fickle game of pro football, we are reminded how little we truly see clearly. Like an inebriated person stumbling from a bar after one too many, we perceive ourselves to be all-knowing, all-seeing and capable of picking the lock of every conceivable bet we place. The trick is to shake off the cobwebs and, no matter how poorly last week went, to have a short memory. The lines only get sharper at this time of the season, so don’t forget that ‘no play’ is a valid strategy as well to keep your bankroll ticking over.
The bye teams this week are the Falcons, Bengals, Saints, and Rams.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday) SAN FRANCISCO (-8) at ARIZONA (Over/Under 44)
The San Francisco 49ers wore their throwback jerseys on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. It proved an appropriate choice as Kyle Shanahan’s team looked like a vintage 49ers team of the glorious 80s in an utterly dominant performance from wire to wire. Scoring 51 points against an NFL team is no mean feat, especially when you consider how strong the Panthers defense has been. This 49ers team looks every bit like a number one seed – now all that’s left is for them to prove it.
Arizona produced a brave display against the Saints in the Superdome – better than most teams would muster, certainly – but what kind of effort can we expect against their division rivals on a short week? The Cardinals have the advantage of playing at home, at least, but Kyler Murray will need all his ingenuity and skill to overcome this team. Arizona’s defense is leaky against the run, so expect the Niners to grind this one out.
Pick: San Francisco
(London) HOUSTON (-2.5) at JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 47)
London could be in for a treat with this early Sunday kick-off as two of the AFC’s more entertaining quarterbacks duke it out. Deshaun Watson’s third touchdown pass – spinning away from a sack, getting kicked in the eye and somehow flicking the ball up perfectly – was a work of art. If Houston ends up rallying to make the playoffs, they will look back on moments like that. The Texans received the crippling news that J.J. Watt will miss the rest of the season, however, a bitter blow to their defense and overall team leadership.
Will Jacksonville be able to take advantage of Watt’s absence? Gardner Minshew will fancy his chances. The mustachioed passer has been nothing short of a revelation for the Jaguars, showing a knack for escaping pressure that closely resembles the style of Russell Wilson. Leonard Fournette continues to show his worth, while the Jacksonville defense is still quietly playing their part, caught up as they may be in the hype of Minshew Mania. Wait to see if this line moves to three, but this feels like a toss-up.
Pick: Jacksonville
CHICAGO at PHILADELPHIA (-5) (Over/Under 44)
NFL pundit and podcast maven Bill Simmons affectionately refers to those few devotees of Mitchell Trubisky as the Trubiskaholics. This motley crew of supporters insists the young quarterback is simply going through some growing pains. What they are willfully ignoring is how inept Trubisky has been at the helm of the Bears offense. Instead of lightly pressing buttons on the offensive console, Trubisky has been haphazardly mashing them like a toddler unruly on his high-chair. Just when a touch pass is called for, Trubisky pulls out a sailed ball over the head of his intended receiver. The boos are getting louder, more intense and more vitriol-laced as the weeks go by.
While the clock continues to tick on Trubisky’s time as a starter, the Eagles have steadied the ship. The win in Buffalo was a massive statement, confirming that within this locker room there is still the potential and talent to knock off fancied opponents. Carson Wentz played winning football last week and did not turn the ball over in the wild conditions. One wonders if the Eagles will stick to the formula that served them so well against the Bills – a steady dose of ground and pound. The Bears may put up a good fight defensively, but this team doesn’t believe in their quarterback and it will bite them – and the Trubiskaholics – eventually.
Pick: Philadelphia
INDIANAPOLIS (-1) at PITTSBURGH (Over/Under 43)
The one-point line here in the Colts' favor is an admission by the experts in Vegas that they are, quite frankly, stumped by this game. Indianapolis needed a miraculous play from Jacoby Brissett – and a heroic kick from ageless wonder Adam Vinatieri – to put the Broncos away last week. It could be dismissed as a game the Colts were looking past, but there is no denying this team’s formula invites close games that often come down to the wire.
Pittsburgh will gobble that up. After all, the Steelers are having to play a conservative offensive game with Mason Rudolph, who looked rusty on Monday night, running the show. The news that James Conner, who hurt his shoulder on a late carry against Miami, could miss the game would be a blow – but perhaps not a disaster considering the quality of Pittsburgh’s offensive line. Heinz Field is a tricky stadium for a dome team to contend with, so the Steelers have to be fancied in a tight contest. If Vinatieri had trouble kicking indoors, the unpredictable gusts of the Steel City will be inhospitable, to say the least.
Pick: Pittsburgh
NEW YORK JETS (-4.5) at MIAMI (Over/Under 41.5)
The Jets simply can’t get out of their own way right now. It is a tragedy to see a talent as precocious and brilliant as Sam Darnold reduced to this, all stemming from a lack of offensive line talent. Darnold has some blame to take in this debacle as well, but the line play has plagued this offense – and there is not much Adam Gase can do to quickly fix it. Le’Veon Bell should get a heavier workload in a game where the Jets are fancied to get the job done, but is it wise to trust this team?
Miami fought hard on Monday Night Football, cognizant of the lights and cameras focused on them for a fleeting moment in what has otherwise been a season of anonymity and heartbreak. Ryan Fitzpatrick gives this team a bit of life, but his turnover-prone play is always one second away from rearing its ugly head and putting the Dolphins in a bind. And yet, against a division rival – and let’s not forget, one of Fitzpatrick’s many former teams – the script is there for Miami to get up for this game and give the Jets all they can handle. Take the punt on Miami to keep it close.
Pick: Miami
MINNESOTA (-2.5) at KANSAS CITY (Over/Under 49)
To Mahomes or not to Mahomes, that is the question. The Chiefs’ star quarterback practiced lightly this past week but wasn’t quite ready for prime time. With another week to get his knee right, could we see the return of the man himself? Expect a line shift if Mahomes returns, but even if he misses out Matt Moore has proved himself a steady backup who provides more than just adherence to Andy Reid’s script. The weaponry at Moore’s disposal is formidable, after all, and Minnesota’s defense has looked suspect at times this season.
This represents an important game for Minnesota, speaking of the men in purple. Kirk Cousins has played some outstanding football over the past few games, producing the types of performances that the Vikings envisaged when they signed him to a fully guaranteed contract. With how soft the Chiefs have been against the run, Dalvin Cook should feast and could singlehandedly win this game. A Cousins-Mahomes duel would be an entertaining clash, but this game feels like a toss-up even if Moore is playing in Mahomes’ stead. Indulge in some home cooking here – and if the line jumps to +3, pounce.
Pick: Kansas City
TENNESSEE at CAROLINA (-3.5) (Over/Under 41)
The Panthers under Ron Rivera (since 2011) have covered the spread 58.2% of the time after a loss, so the odds are on the home team’s side here to bounce back from a dismal display in San Francisco. The 49ers are going to punish many teams this season, but Rivera can’t be thrilled with how soft his team played against the run. Facing Derrick Henry this week, the Panthers front seven will have to be assignment-sound and arrive in numbers. Cam Newton still isn’t ready to start, so it will be Kyle Allen once again. Will the young passer be shaken by last week or can he overcome?
Mike Vrabel will be stroking his mustache as he surveys the film of last week’s game, hoping he can plant a few seeds of doubt in Allen, who threw his first career interceptions. Tennessee’s defense has come to life somewhat in the past few weeks, energized by Ryan Tannehill’s play, but this unit is exploitable as well. Carolina’s offensive line is in flux now, but last week’s collapse feels more like an aberration than a trend. The Panthers will ride Christian McCaffrey and an infuriated defense to a victory.
Pick: Carolina
WASHINGTON at BUFFALO (-10.5) (Over/Under 36.5)
Is it just me or have the Bills had a rather easy time of it schedule-wise lately? Home games against Miami and Washington won’t exactly sharpen their skills for the inevitable playoff game ahead. The AFC is weak enough that even at nine wins, Buffalo could squeeze in. The early weather report makes this a 36F affair with 13mph winds, so the 10.5-point line might be a little excessive. After all, weather is the great equalizer.
And yet, the Redskins have offered very little in recent weeks and nothing would suggest they are up to an upset in Buffalo. Case Keenum can keep things afloat, but they tend to crumble as games wear on. The Bills will be smarting after a home loss to the Eagles last week. Many in the league are dismissing them as a team that has benefited from their soft schedule – and some of that is valid – but this feels like just the spot to silence the doubters. Bang the under and let’s go Buff-a-lo.
Pick: Buffalo
TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE (-6.5) (Over/Under 53.5)
No game this week has the potential for a shootout like this clash, according to Vegas. The 53.5-point total is the highest of the week and you can understand why: Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson, while miles apart in some ways, both can produce jaw-dropping plays and pile up points in bunches. Winston remains a frustrating player to watch, but there is no denying that the weapons at his disposal provide him with an opportunity to keep this game close. The Bucs defense, too, has difference makers – especially with the return of Jason Pierre-Paul.
As for the Seahawks, the news that starting center Justin Britt (ACL) will miss the remainder of the season is a crushing blow. Offensive lines can generally transition smoothly when they lose a player other than the center, but being robbed of that voice in the huddle could be damaging. Wilson can manage the pocket with the best of them, but this could make his assignment very tricky. Seattle should be able to grind a win out at home, with the Bucs staying close.
Pick: Tampa Bay
DETROIT at OAKLAND (-2) (Over/Under 51.5)
This could turn out to be one of the sneaky good games on this week’s slate. The Raiders finally return home to Oakland after a multi-week absence; the Black Hole will look so welcoming to those players, one would guess, after hostile fans greeting them at each stop for a while. Jon Gruden’s team has character and a pugilistic mentality that will keep them in many games. Their defense doesn’t quite have the pieces to close games (see last week), which can be their undoing.
Detroit’s .500 record won’t cut it in the uber-competitive NFC, so only a road win will do here to stay in the hunt. Matthew Stafford, like his counterpart in this game, has played some of his finest football in recent games and will be asked to shoulder the load considering the Lions’ issues at running back. Defensively, Detroit has the ability to slow, but rarely stop, offenses. Oakland should be able to take advantage and notch a valuable home win.
Pick: Oakland
GREEN BAY (-3.5) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (Over/Under 47)
The Los Angeles Chargers are 2-8-1 against the spread since moving into their temporary stadium in Carson, California last season. In other words, they have no home-field advantage whatsoever. This week, the Cheeseheads are coming to town to bask in the sunshine and fill the stadium with yellow and green. There may not be a Chargers fan in sight.
The Chargers got away with one last week in Chicago, but the Packers once again flexed their muscles in Kansas City. Aaron Rodgers and Matt LeFleur have finally found their groove – and it is a sweet one. The ground game for Green Bay has been creative, destructive and demoralizing for opponents. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are putting on quite a show. The Green Bay defense should make short work of an undermanned Chargers offensive line. The 3.5-point line seems a little disrespectful to the superior team.
Pick: Green Bay
CLEVELAND (-3) at DENVER (Over/Under 43)
Cleveland gets a break with the news that Joe Flacco will be out for this game, forcing Brandon Allen into action. The Browns gave New England a decent game last week, all things considered, exposing a chink the armor of Bill Belichick’s defense against the run. Nick Chubb should be given all he can handle in this game, an eminently winnable affair that could get the Browns back on track. The bottom line is that nothing but a victory will be acceptable; the pressure is on Freddie Kitchens and Co. to deliver.
Denver’s woes continue at a blistering pace. The fact that rookie Drew Lock is not being considered as the starter after Flacco’s injury is a tacit admission by John Elway that he may have whiffed on the pick. Perhaps it is too soon to pass judgment, but rookie quarterbacks tend to find a way into the line-up if they are good enough. This feels like the type of game you want to avoid betting on, but the Browns have to get the slight nod if you’re feeling brave.
Pick: Cleveland
(Sunday Night) NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) at BALTIMORE (Over/Under 44.5)
The Patriots have made defense look easy in a league where offense is king. Bill Belichick’s men are getting the bounces here and there, certainly, but it cannot be argued just how dominant this unit has been. Giving up just 61 points in eight games is absurd efficiency. As the schedule toughens up, however, starting this week in Baltimore, the question is whether this is sustainable. The run defense appears to be a slight chink in the armor – and something the run-heavy Ravens will pounce on.
After all, Baltimore’s strength is a strong rushing attack led by budding superstar Lamar Jackson. The Patriots do not often have to game plan for players as slippery as Jackson, who has a knack for making defenders miss and gliding for yardage like it was nothing. The issues for Baltimore will lie in how Jackson can fit the football into tight windows as a passer. Belichick will show the young quarterback looks he hasn’t seen before. With the Patriots laying just 3.5 points, there is only one way to go.
Pick: New England
(Monday Night) DALLAS (-7) at NEW YORK GIANTS (Over/Under 48)
The acquisition of Leonard Williams by the Giants this week tells the NFL world, loudly and clearly, that Dave Gettleman isn’t about to mail in this season. The embattled general manager believes his team is on an upward trajectory and decided the risk of loaning Williams – with the likelihood he will be re-signed by Big Blue – was worth the downside. New York’s front seven has some nice pieces; it is how they fit together that will determine their long-term success. Daniel Jones continues to show promise, though he still produces questionable plays that are often not punished as turnovers.
Dallas will be aware of what Jones is capable of, having studied his last few games. There is enough tape on Jones to put together a profile of his strengths and weaknesses, but the young passer has room to grow and can break through that glass ceiling as he gets more reps. The Cowboys defense is a nasty unit to contend with, but a home underdog getting seven points in prime time is too much to look past. The Jets pulled out a victory in this stadium against this Cowboys team just weeks ago; why can’t the G-Men do the same?
Pick: New York Giants
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Though we may have more clarity at the season’s midway point, things are still developing in the 2019 story. Week 8 was a humbling one with the best bets going 1-3, but this week provides plenty of fascinating clashes to sink our teeth into. With a lot of efficient lines this week – and few open to teasers – we are going to focus on the best spreads:
- 1 NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) at BALTIMORE
- 2 GREEN BAY (-3.5) at LOS ANGELES
- 3 CAROLINA (-3.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- 4 PHILADELPHIA (-5) vs. CHICAGO
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 9 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- PHILADELPHIA (-5)
- CAROLINA (-3.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 3-TEAM SPREAD BET (5.67-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-3.5)
- PHILADELPHIA (-5)
- NEW ENGLAND (-3.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM SPREAD BET (6-1 ODDS)
- GREEN BAY (-3.5)
- CAROLINA (-3.5)
- NEW ENGLAND (-3.5)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Philadelphia, Carolina, New England, Green Bay, Oakland
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 7-8
- SEASON OVERALL: 62-59 (51.2%)
- BEST BETS: 14-15 (48.2%), last week 1-3
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 20-15 (57%), last week 3-2
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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