Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
The last couple of weeks have been a shock to the system, with injuries and changing situations throwing up some curve balls at the gambling public. Lines are sharper, so even the craftiest among us are being forced to question our every decision. While the landscape is changing beneath our feet, this is no time to wallow and hide in a corner. Spot the inefficiencies (and they will be there) and let’s get out of the hole this week.
The bye teams this week are Baltimore and Dallas.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday) WASHINGTON at MINNESOTA (-14) (Over/Under 40)
Woe is Washington after yet another bumbling, stumbling, rain-soaked loss. The stands are emptying in the nation’s capital, though this franchise will remain in a cruel state of flux until the offseason when, presumably, a new coach will take the poison chalice that is the Redskins football coaching job. The race is on for Washington, Cincinnati, and Miami – that is, the race to the bottom. To put it bluntly, if Washington can hang in this game for more than a quarter, it would surprise me.
As for the Vikings, things could hardly be better. Yes, they may have had to endure some tricky times earlier in the season with rumors of discontent within the camp, but that has all disappeared now beneath of cloud of wins and Kirk Cousins' brilliance. Play action has been Cousins’ best friend in recent weeks; expect to see plenty more of it here, as well as a split backfield workload between Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. Fourteen points is steep, but the Redskins are beyond hope.
Pick: Minnesota
SEATTLE (-3.5) at ATLANTA (Over/Under 54)
No Matt Ryan for Atlanta and yet the Seahawks are still only favored by 3.5 points? That may change before Sunday as Vegas realizes just how much of a liability Matt Schaub is. In Seattle’s favor here is the fact that only last week they dropped a home game to the Ravens in a rainstorm as their rushing attack faltered and Russell Wilson was forced to play the hero. The only problem was there was a hero on the other sideline named Lamar Jackson who scuppered their best-laid plans.
A trip to what I have heard called the Welcome Mat of the NFL in Atlanta will be just the ticket to cure what ails the Seahawks. The Falcons brass may have their fingers positioned above the big red button labeled "eject" as this game goes on; they may press it by the end, as Dan Quinn nervously shuffles along the sideline without a starting quarterback of quality to rescue him. This one only ends one way.
Pick: Seattle
DENVER at INDIANAPOLIS (-6) (Over/Under 44)
The key question hovering over this game is how Denver’s players respond after a thorough and embarrassing beatdown at the hands of the Chiefs on last week’s Thursday Night Football. The Broncos, prior to that loss, had won two in a row and appeared to be finding their rhythm – only to have it cruelly snatched away. Joe Flacco had a part to play in that debacle of a game, his inability to avoid pressure a huge liability. Can Vic Fangio rally his troops here, knowing well that their season is, essentially, on life support?
The Colts, meanwhile, will not care one jot about the Denver drama. They will be focused on retaining their first-placed berth in the AFC South and building momentum for what is a handy stretch of their schedule. Jacoby Brissett continues to prove any who doubted him wrong and the players clearly gravitate towards his personality. Expect the home team to flex their muscles here.
Pick: Indianapolis
TAMPA BAY at TENNESSEE (-2.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
The Buccaneers traveled home from London two weeks ago with their tails between their legs, a team carrying many burdens and few solutions. One of the main burdens, oddly, is starting quarterback Jameis Winston, whose turnover-prone play has tested the patience of many a fan and coach. What the Bucs have on paper is a solid defense, though that unit has disappointed of late. Perhaps a bye week will allow Bruce Arians to revitalize his program.
As for the Titans, Vegas believes the Bucs are the better team on a neutral field if you look at the 2.5-point line, so they will use that as motivation. After all, Ryan Tannehill – as much of a journeyman as he is – took control of the offense last week and looked competent. Unlike Marcus Mariota, Tannehill wasn’t afraid to test the defense downfield and generally played with good timing. The Titans, at 3-4, are well in the hunt in the top-heavy AFC, so expect a stirring effort at home here.
Pick: Tennessee
ARIZONA at NEW ORLEANS (-9.5) (Over/Under 48)
Could this be the week the Saints welcome back Drew Brees? They may not have to, as it turns out, what with how well Teddy Bridgewater has been minding the house. The floor is clean, the shelves neat and tidy and the win column is oh-so-nice. One gets the feeling that if there is even the slightest concern over Brees’ thumb that Bridgewater will get the nod again. This presents as the type of match-up – as 9-5-point home favorites – that New Orleans can cruise through.
Arizona has fought back to a 3-3-1 record to the surprise of many observers, who were ready to fire Kliff Kingsbury before even giving him a chance. Kyler Murray will have to work his comeback magic in this game against a defense that has been stifling, unforgiving and nearly impossible to contend with. Quick releases and a steady ground game will be the tonic for the Cardinals to offset the defense’s all-around threat, but that game plan can only get you so far.
Pick: New Orleans
CINCINNATI at LOS ANGELES RAMS (-12.5) (LONDON) (Over/Under 48.5)
Something tells me that, despite the long odds, the Bengals faithful that arrives in London this week is going to, ahem, enjoy themselves. Of course, that presumes that there will be a contingent of fans traveling from the Queen City, no guarantee if you survey the stands on a Sunday afternoon to see vast swathes of empty seats. Still winless, the clock is ticking on Andy Dalton and his starting role; one wonders whether Zac Taylor might pull the trigger soon and give rookie Ryan Finley a chance.
The Rams got back on track with a morale-boosting victory in Atlanta, but they will know the ship is stabilized more than it is steady and smooth sailing. This team is a far cry from the peaks of the past two seasons that resulted in playoff appearances and a Super Bowl berth. Sean McVay’s team should be able to get their business taken care of on this extended road trip, but 12.5 points seems excessive considering how inconsistent L.A. has been.
Pick: Cincinnati
PHILADELPHIA at BUFFALO (-1.5) (Over/Under 43)
To coin a well-worn phrase, it’s getting late early for the Philadelphia Eagles. The loss to the Cowboys wasn’t unexpected on Sunday Night Football, but the manner of it will have irked many of the Eagles brass. The expectations for this team are high – and rightly so considering the roster they have – and this road test in Buffalo feels like a real gut check for them. Will they wilt under the weight of the Bills pass rush, or can the defense rise to the occasion and can Carson Wentz produce some memorable moments to steal a win?
The Bills are short home favorites, so Vegas is leaning to the road team here. My gut tells me this stems from a lack of trust in Bills quarterback Josh Allen, whose performances this year have been rather like a rollercoaster, with more ups and downs than you would care to keep track of. The game script for Buffalo is a complementary one, with the defense feeding off the offense and vice versa. When you look at both teams, though, the Eagles need this more and are catching points on the road as the better team. Fly with the birds.
Pick: Philadelphia
NEW YORK GIANTS at DETROIT (-7) (Over/Under 50)
According to Pro Football Focus, New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones leads the league in what they term turnover-worthy throws. In other words, Jones is putting the football in harm’s way – and he’s doing it a lot. The Giants know that if they are to have any chance of pulling off an upset here, Jones will have to take care of the ball. Young quarterbacks always struggle with the ‘speed of the game’ in the NFL, and this is no different. However, the former Duke player also has his surrounding cast of weapons back, lightening his load a little.
The Lions must feel like they are cursed after losing yet another hard-fought game last week to fall below .500. After such a promising, if erratic, start to the season, Detroit will have to swim back to the surface of NFL mediocrity before they can consider a playoff push. It all starts with a victory at home this week, but the Lions’ DNA is clear at this point – could a let-down be on the cards? Take the points here and wait for 7.5 if you can.
Pick: New York Giants
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at CHICAGO (-4.5) (Over/Under 40)
The Chargers are in the midst of another lost campaign. How they manage to make a habit of losing close games in increasingly bizarre fashion is hard to comprehend. The AFC West is not completely out of their grasp just yet, though the Chiefs have a nice cushion. Anthony Lynn’s team has much to do if they want to vault back into relevance and an improbable playoff spot. Perhaps a visit to a reeling Chicago team could be the solution.
The boos were raining down on Mitchell Trubisky last week as the patience of the Chicago faithful in Soldier Field finally wore out. The young quarterback has shown flashes of progression, but nothing more than that. A brief glimmer of hope, followed by odd throws and odder decisions. The defense stood its ground for a little while last week before being summarily dismissed by a superior Saints offensive line. Honestly, neither team inspires a huge amount of confidence in this clash. In that case, the best call is to take the points and wash your hands of it.
Pick: Los Angeles
NEW YORK JETS at JACKSONVILLE (-4.5) (Over/Under 41)
The Jets might still be seeing ghosts after a Monday Night Football game straight from their worst nightmares. In fact, had Sam Darnold woken up in a cold sweat the night before the game, he may have described the very scenario that played out. To get over a humiliating defeat like that can take time, so one has to wonder at the state of this team’s psyche – and whether Adam Gase can rally them.
Gardner Minshew continues to get the job done for the Jaguars, meanwhile. The time is drawing close to when Nick Foles will be ready to return, but like the situation in Carolina with Kyle Allen and Cam Newton, the question must be asked: will the previous starter get the job back? Minshew is a fiery competitor and will not cede the role easily, so this test against Gang Green will be yet another showcase for him. There does appear to be an overreaction in the line, however, and 4.5 points at home for the Jaguars – a comparable team to New York – seems excessive. Trust in Darnold and Company to rebound.
Pick: New York Jets
CAROLINA at SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5) (Over/Under 41)
The Panthers under Ron Rivera have an excellent record when they are counted out on the road. Since 2011, Carolina is 25-15 (62.5%) against the spread as the road underdog, and there is a real sense that Rivera-coached teams have a habit of raising their game when the odds are stacked against them. On the other side of the ledger, Carolina is 11-17 against the spread over that same period when they have a rest advantage over their opponent. Which Panthers team shows up, we don’t know. What we do know is that it will be Kyle Allen starting again at quarterback in what will be the youngster’s biggest test by far.
The 49ers have earned the plaudits of the football world for their 6-0 start, riding a balanced offense that keeps opponents off balance and a defense that is relentless in its hustle. Kyle Shanahan’s team is laying 5.5 points here, a sign that Vegas is buying what they are selling out west. Carolina’s defense has been playing some excellent football, however, and could stifle Jimmy Garoppolo enough to keep this close.
Pick: Carolina
OAKLAND at HOUSTON (-6.5) (Over/Under 51.5)
I can’t help but be impressed by what Jon Gruden is building in Oakland. It is not a finished product by any means, but Gruden’s tenacious attitude is infectious and has clearly filtered down to the players. The effort is never in question for these Raiders, but fatigue could be. The Silver and Black have not played a home game since Week 2, with a London trip wedged in there, so they could be forgiven for being a bit flat. They certainly were last week in Green Bay.
As for the Texans, a loss to the Colts could be a decisive one in the final standings when playoff seedings are in the balance. Then again, there is ample time to get things turned around – and a home game against Indianapolis to come. Deshaun Watson continues to produce plays that very few quarterbacks can. It defies belief that Watson’s incredible touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins was ruled out last week for an ‘in the grass’ sack. Houston should be able to take advantage of a travel-weary Raiders team.
Pick: Houston
CLEVELAND at NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
What more can be said about the New England defense? Should we all just bow down and crown them champions? It is too early for that, perhaps, but Bill Belichick appears to be in such a groove with this unit right now, putting the rest of the league on notice. The offense is doing enough, but the trade for Mohamed Sanu is perhaps an insight into how they feel about their receiving corps: that it is limited and one injury away from being a liability. Sanu offsets that somewhat – and he and Josh McDaniels may be having a chat over some trick plays they could draw up.
The Browns are coming off their bye in this nightmare of a game, one that is likely to have Baker Mayfield seeing ghosts like his Jets counterpart on Monday night. We should see a renewed focus on establishing the run from Cleveland, whose offensive line simply will not hold up if they ask them to pass protect 40+ times. It is rarely a smart move to bet against the Patriots at home, but 10.5 points seems a little excessive considering the talent Cleveland has on their roster.
Pick: Cleveland
(Sunday Night) GREEN BAY (-4.5) at KANSAS CITY (Over/Under 48)
Oh, what could have been! The injury to Patrick Mahomes II must have the executives overseeing Sunday Night Football seething as they rue the missed opportunity of a match-up with Aaron Rodgers and the reigning NFL MVP. Not that the Packers will be crying over their bratwurst; this team is hitting its stride in a major way and produced a muscle-flexing performance against Oakland. It was like the light suddenly flicked on in the Matt LaFleur-Rodgers bond.
Matt Moore will do his best Mahomes impression, guided by the wily and creative mind of Andy Reid, but it may not be enough. Yes, the Chiefs have a talented array of weapons, but with a week to prepare and a decent defense, the Packers will not fear this situation. Arrowhead has hardly been a fortress for the Chiefs this year; expect Rodgers to stay cool under pressure and deliver in prime time.
Pick: Green Bay
(Monday Night) MIAMI at PITTSBURGH (-14.5) (Over/Under 43.5)
The Dolphins are living in a winless world and that world will keep spinning on Monday Night Football – into another loss. This team just can’t catch a break. An encouraging performance in Buffalo last week has to be applauded (lightly), but it is clear the talent just isn’t there on this roster to pull off anything special. An upset in Heinz Field would be a monumental achievement, that said.
The Steelers are unlikely to be too welcoming in that regard, however. Duck (a.k.a. Devlin Hodges) goes back to the bench as Mason Rudolph, recovered from his concussion, steps back into the starting role. Rudolph can reset with this game, getting his feet back under him and keeping the offense ticking over. Pittsburgh’s defense should be able to feast on a Miami offensive line that routinely rolls out the welcome mat for pass rushers.
Pick: Pittsburgh
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Though we may have more clarity after two weeks of play, things are still developing in the 2019 story. Week 7 was a humbling one, but this week provides plenty of fascinating clashes to sink our teeth into. With a lot of efficient lines this week – and few open to teasers – we are going to focus on the best spreads:
- 1 NEW YORK JETS (+4.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- 2 CAROLINA (+5.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
- 3 HOUSTON (-6.5) vs. OAKLAND
- 4 PHILADELPHIA (+1.5) at BUFFALO
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 8 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- HOUSTON (-6.5)
- NEW YORK JETS (+4.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 3-TEAM SPREAD BET (5.67-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (+5.5)
- PHILADELPHIA (+1.5)
- HOUSTON (-6.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Philadelphia, New Orleans, Seattle, Carolina, New York Jets
Seasons RESULTS
Last Week / Season
LAST WEEK: 7-7
- SEASON OVERALL: 55-51 (52%)
- BEST BETS: 13-12 (52%), last week 3-1
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 17-13 (56%), last week 3-1
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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