Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Just when we thought normal service would resume, this league threw us another curveball – right in the face. Last week proved to be a tricky one, as it turned out, with my personal record of 7-8 something I am not entirely proud of. You live and you learn, however, especially with wagering – though there were some bad beats along the way.
We learned that London games are strange (watch out with those for the next few weeks); that 0-4 teams can be dangerous against subpar teams without a homefield advantage (Chargers, I’m looking at you) and that the Bengals are truly awful and should never be trusted again. Week 6 holds better things, so let’s get to it.
The bye teams this week are Chicago, Oakland, Buffalo and Indianapolis
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday) NY GIANTS at NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) (Over/Under 42.5)
The Giants, as well as throwing their rookie quarterback to the wolves, will be doing so with an undermanned set of weapons around him. The wolves in question are the ravenous Patriots defensive players, who even now are sharpening their teeth to feast on the green passer. Sterling Shepard’s absence is significant, not only because it is another concussion but because of his reliability as a target for Daniel Jones. Defensively, the Giants struggled horribly against crossing patterns last week, leaving vast swathes of open field to throw into. That formula will not be fruitful against New England.
Tom Brady is not fond of taking hits at this point in his career, opting instead for the patented Peyton Manning fold technique or a throwaway. In this game, he may not have much to worry about. The Giants are simply not equipped to deal with this offense, whether it be James White as a receiver, Sony Michel as a runner or perhaps Josh Gordon – yes, him – as a downfield threat. The spreads in Patriots games continue to be huge, and yet how can you pick against them?
Pick: New England
CAROLINA (pick to -2) at TAMPA BAY (LONDON) (Over/Under 48)
In what may be an overreaction to the Panthers’ dramatic victory over Jacksonville, the line on this London contest moved two points in the ‘road’ team’s favor. It may also have been Vegas silently chastising themselves for believing in the Buccaneers, whose inconsistency cropped up again last week in New Orleans, albeit against a quality opponent. Carolina’s first trip to London in the franchise’s history may create additional headaches for head coach Ron Rivera, a man notoriously fond of his regular routines when it comes to preparation and kick-off time.
While both teams will be adjusting their body clocks throughout the week, the talent of both teams would indicate a close, hard-fought game. The most recent meeting, a Week 2 victory for the Bucs in Charlotte, saw a goal-line stand decide things, but even in four weeks, the DNA of these NFC South rivals has irrevocably changed. Christian McCaffrey is singlehandedly running the Carolina offense, Kyle Allen is undefeated as a starter (3-0); for the Bucs, Jameis Winston appears to be found his groove while the Bucs defense has a strong identity. Tampa gets the raw deal here by losing a home game; on paper, Carolina is the better team and should squeak it.
Pick: Carolina
WASHINGTON (-3.5) at MIAMI (Over/Under 41)
This is the de facto Number One Draft Pick Bowl, whether we like it or not. Yes, other teams will lay claim to the not-so-coveted title of worst team in the league, but few will come close to the sheer ineptitude of these two lost franchises. The Redskins finally pulled the plug on head coach Jay Gruden’s tenure this past week, a move we could have predicted. On the other side of the ledger, Miami head coach Brian Flores is overseeing a full-on rebuilding project and will be safe for this season at least.
Stability could be crucial, in other words. The Redskins laying 3.5 points on the road is a nod in their direction, but do they deserve it? Probably not. Miami has been truly horrendous in the second half of games, getting completely shut out. One wonders if the bye week allowed the Dolphins to reassess things internally. Teams tend to come out strongly after a break, so grab the points and watch the carnage unfold. Who wants it… less?
Pick: Miami
PHILADELPHIA at MINNESOTA (-3) (Over/Under 44)
The Eagles are back in a tie for first place in the NFC East after many wrote them off moments after their home loss to Detroit. Since then, all they have done is notch a road win against the Packers and delivered a fierce uppercut to the Jets to knock them clean out of the stadium. Carson Wentz didn’t have to do much last week; this week will be a different story. The Vikings defense will be primed and ready for the challenge of Wentz and the Philadelphia offense, which could see the return of DeSean Jackson. The downfield element has been sorely missing in recent weeks; Jackson’s return would be a huge boon.
As for the embattled Kirk Cousins, he responded exactly the way he had to in New Jersey last week: with a dominant performance against an inferior opponent. That, my friends, is where Cousins excels and is comfortable; the problems arise when he is under pressure or has to mount a comeback. It is noteworthy, however, that the Vikings are 6-3-1 against the spread as the home team since Cousins took over as the starter in 2018.
Pick: Minnesota
HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY (-5.5) (Over/Under 55)
Get your popcorn ready, folks. This one figures to be every bit as entertaining as the Atlanta-Houston clash last week, when footballs filled the skies and points were plentiful. The Chiefs are generally considered invincible at home (17-6 straight up record at Arrowhead since 2018), so to fall so convincingly to the Colts in primetime was, frankly, a shock for the football world. Patrick Mahomes II limping is not a sight we as fans wish to behold too often. This feels like a nice spot for the Chiefs, who will be extra motivated to show their home fans that this won’t be yet another promising season that goes up in smoke.
Though the Chiefs’ margin of victory average at home since 2018 is an impressive 10.5 points, they have covered the spread as the home team just 50% of the time. Houston has the weaponry to create major problems for this Chiefs defense, which could be without key starter Chris Jones. Will Bill O’Brien embrace the shootout aspect, or simply try to grind the clock like his division rivals Indianapolis? A mixture of both should yield a close game.
Pick: Houston
NEW ORLEANS at JACKSONVILLE (-1) (Over/Under 44.5)
Minshew Mania came to an abrupt stop in Charlotte last week, but the hype train won’t be delayed for long. Quite the contrary; it is just refueling for its next voyage. The Jaguars deserve credit for continuing to punch back against the Panthers, with Minshew delivering some gorgeous passes and often creating something out of nothing. Leonard Fournette is playing every snap like it is his last, which makes for some unpleasant tackles for defenders. Defensively, this team has a lot to look over before the visit of the Saints, however. After watching what Christian McCaffrey did to them last week, Alvin Kamara will be nodding with glee.
The Saints have covered just 50.6% of the time as the away team since 2010 compared to 57.7% at home. Teddy Bridgewater made the NFL world do a double-take last week after a four-touchdown performance, but that has proven to be the exception and not the rule for the former Viking. In what could be yet another highly entertaining NFC South vs. AFC South clash, expect a backlash from the Jaguars defense and enough Minshew magic to win the day for the home team.
Pick: Jacksonville
SEATTLE (-1) at CLEVELAND (Over/Under 47.5)
The Monday Night Football debacle that was Cleveland’s loss to the 49ers shall not be dwelt on for long by this coaching staff, one would suspect. Freddie Kitchens and his lieutenants have much to look back on, but by now it is clear that this offensive line is a huge liability. The only way for the Browns to run a consistent offense is through Nick Chubb. A short week may not be helpful as far as recovery, but this team may relish a chance to get back on the field quickly to redeem themselves.
The Seahawks come into this game off 10 days of rest after a heart-stopping victory over the Rams on Thursday night. Russell Wilson proved once again why he is considered one of the best passers in the league in that game, dropping some absolute dimes. There is a sense that if Seattle let Wilson do his thing for an entire game, he could obliterate opponents, but balance is key for Pete Carroll’s team. The Browns will offer up a feisty riposte to Seattle aggression, but wait for this line to go out to +3 in the home team’s favor if possible.
Pick: Cleveland
CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (-11.5) (Over/Under 48.5)
The winless Bengals have lost the trust of the betting public after a dismal display at home in front of a sparse crowd last week. Did I mention that loss came to Arizona? Yes, things are spiraling downwards quickly for Zac Taylor’s team. The injuries they have experienced are an inconvenience, certainly, but this team was lifeless. It had no snap, no crackle, and no pop. Taylor will need to energize this roster for this divisional clash.
Lamar Jackson will fancy his chances to do some serious damage here. The young passer had his way with vastly inferior opponents earlier this season, dispatching Miami and Arizona with ease. Since then the road has been rockier, but the Ravens still have their heads above water. AFC North games can sometimes throw up unusual results, so the safer option here is to take the 11.5 points and look for a back-door cover from the Bengals.
Pick: Cincinnati
SAN FRANCISCO at LA RAMS (-3.5) (Over/Under 49.5)
How ‘bout them 49ers! Yes, I realize it is somewhat difficult to be enthusiastic about a team that we don’t quite trust yet, but this roster is legitimately good and can cause ructions in the NFC playoff picture. John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan have built a team with swagger, pass rush prowess and a run-heavy offense that keeps defenses on their heels. The stable of running backs at their disposal means every carry could be something completely different for defenders to deal with. The receiving corps offers the same variety, while the man at the helm Jimmy Garoppolo has Shanahan whispering the plays in his air – with excellent returns.
This is a massive game for the Rams, however, who would be 2.5 games back on the 49ers with a defeat. A win, and suddenly the division is open for business once again. Los Angeles’ mojo seems to have deserted them recently; a 10-day layoff might help them find it again. Jared Goff’s protection has been wanting at times, while the ground game has lacked a spark. Defensively, this team is exploitable. The 3.5 points means we can only look one way here.
Pick: San Francisco
ATLANTA (-2.5) at ARIZONA (Over/Under 52)
Dan Quinn Watch has officially begun in Atlanta, though many fans will say it should have started a long time ago. Falcons owner Arthur Blank gave his coaching staff the dreaded vote of confidence this week, but this doesn’t feel like a franchise that will make a rash move in-season and hence waylaying the rest of their campaign with a lame duck at the helm. On the field, the offense continues to be forced into shootouts by the defense’s weaknesses, and one wonders how long this pattern can continue.
Arizona will be buoyed off their first victory – a road win, no less – and return home to try to kick Atlanta while they are down. David Johnson could miss this game through injury, so underrated back Chase Edmonds, who scored on a long touchdown run last week, will assume the starting role. If Kyler Murray can make mature decisions and Arizona’s defense can hold up their end of the bargain, anything is possible. Still, Atlanta has enough credit in the bank – and desperation – to sneak this one.
Pick: Atlanta
DALLAS (-9) at NEW YORK JETS (Over/Under 43.5)
The return of Sam Darnold to the fold for the Jets comes as welcome news to a beleaguered squad much in need of a boost. With Luke Falk, and briefly Trevor Siemian, at the controls, the Jets have been beyond abject. True, their schedule has not been the easiest, but the lack of any kind of fight is concerning. Even with Darnold returning, questions remain over how confident he will be to take hits with his spleen having just recovered.
The Cowboys won’t pay any heed to the Jets’ recent woes. After all, Dallas has had a rough ride of it themselves. Back to back losses to the Saints and Packers is no reason to push the panic button, of course, but Jason Garrett’s charges can’t afford to get too far behind the NFC pack, not to mention the fact the Eagles are tied with them now atop the NFC East. While it is tricky to lay nine points on the road, an angry Dallas team simply has too much firepower for the Jets to deal with.
Pick: Dallas
TENNESSEE at DENVER (-2.5) (Over/Under 39)
One of the most uninspiring contests of the late games features the up-and-down Titans visiting the lowly Broncos. Denver might be 1-4 record-wise, but they have fought hard in each of their games and, were it not for a few plays here and there, could easily be 3-2. It is a reason to not count them out just yet, especially after a pugilistic effort in Los Angeles last week where their defense dominated.
The Titans are the very definition of a coin toss team. You toss heads and they wreck the other team, riding their defense and a controlled Marcus Mariota-led offense to a scrappy win; tails and it’s a sloppy affair with mistakes aplenty. Stunning, Mariota hasn’t yet turned the ball over, though he has taken many sacks. Things might even themselves out this week, though isn’t this Tennessee’s week for a good game? When in doubt, take the points.
Pick: Tennessee
(Sunday Night) PITTSBURGH at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-6.5) (Over/Under 41)
The name’s Hodges, Devlin Hodges. That’s right, it’s Week 6 and the Steelers quarterback on Sunday Night Football is a player many of us hadn’t even heard of prior to last weekend. The undrafted player has a mountain to climb this week, though the Steelers’ offensive line and stable of weapons will give him all the help he needs. Defensively, Pittsburgh has the horses to keep this one close.
And yet, we have seen this script so many times before. An inexperienced quarterback on a big occasion can sometimes make the inexplicable play that can end up costing his team momentum, and ultimately, the game. The Chargers know they have to win games like these if they are to have any chance of getting into the AFC playoff picture. It’s tough to trust this team, but let’s take a chance.
Pick: Los Angeles
(Monday Night) DETROIT at GREEN BAY (-4.5) (Over/Under 47)
The well-rested Detroit Lions have had a nice break to ponder the challenge of the Packers on Monday night. Will Matt Patricia have concocted a winning game plan? After all, his team almost pulled off an upset against Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs. Clearly the Lions can play above themselves and cause some problems for Aaron Rodgers here, but it’s the Packers at home in primetime. The hill to climb is tall and steep.
As for Green Bay, they have covered the spread 59.7% of the time since 2010 as the home team, one of the best marks in the league over that period. Aaron Jones played his heart out last week, clearly relishing the lead back role. If the Lions can keep it close into the fourth quarter, they have every chance, but the wise move here is to trust the Pack.
Pick: Green Bay
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Week 5 threw us for a loop in many ways, but there are plenty of favorable lines this week to target. My favorites are the following:
- 1 MINNESOTA (-3)
- 2 HOUSTON (+5.5)
- 3 LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-6.5)
- 4 ATLANTA (-2.5)
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 5 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-6.5)
- ATLANTA (-2.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 3-TEAM SPREAD BET (5.67-1 ODDS):
- MINNESOTA (-3)
- HOUSTON (+5.5)
- LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-6.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Minnesota, Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta, San Francisco
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 7-8
- SEASON OVERALL: 43-36 (54%)
- BEST BETS: 9-12 (42%), last week 1-3
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 14-13 (51%), last week 2-3
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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