Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Week 3 is upon us already, and we have learned some harsh lessons through two weeks. As we consider to gather data points, keep your mind open to the many possibilities and stay on top of injury news to optimize your wagers.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday) TENNESSEE (-2) at JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 40)
Not exactly a barnburner of a Thursday Night Football game, so NFL Network will have to pull out all the stops with the promotional content. After two AFC South clashes in Week 2, another creeps up on us as the cult figure that is Gardner Minshew comes home where the water is warm, and the jock strap-only warm-ups are plentiful.
It is a very Titans thing to lose at home to the Colts only a week after blowing out an opponent on the road. Mismanagement of the clock at the end of the game stymied any lingering hopes Marcus Mariota and company might have had, and there is still a real sense of trepidation in trusting this quarterback to deliver. Being made road favorites is completely understandable, but is Minshew any less capable than Mariota of playing the position competently? I’m not so sure.
While Jacksonville got turned over convincingly in their first home game, the caveat is the opponent: Kansas City. The Chiefs look nigh on unstoppable and Jacksonville’s embattled defense limited the Texans’ potent offense to just 13 points. If Minshew can maintain his poise – and he looked awfully chilled on that potential game-winning drive last week – the Jaguars look like they could be a live underdog here. I’m buying in on the mustachioed one. Getting three points would be ideal, so watch this line to see if there is any movement.
Pick: Jacksonville
DETROIT at PHILADELPHIA (-7 to -7.5) (Over/Under 48.5)
Since Matt Patricia took the reins in Detroit last season, the Lions have an impressive 6-3-0 record against the spread as the away team. That is a 66.7% cover rate, by the way. What is frustrating and confounding about this team is its Jekyll and Hyde nature. Just when you believe you have their identity pinned down, they take off the mask and one side of the ball or the other lays an egg.
Despite the Eagles’ late loss to the Falcons on Sunday Night Football, a lot of credit must go to Carson Wentz. Losing not only his center Jason Kelce, but two of his primary receiving options in DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery, was a huge blow – and yet he persevered and completed some ludicrous passes with defenders hanging out of him. This is a very solid team, and likely a contender in the NFC, so they should be fancied at home. The injuries bear watching, of course, though one has to wonder if 7.5 points is a little too much respect.
What this game ultimately comes down to is trust, and that applies to making wagers as well. It pains me to lay the points here when the line is so large, but I have more faith in a banged-up Eagles team than I do in a Lions team that hasn’t yet established an identity.
Pick: Philadelphia
CINCINNATI at BUFFALO (-4 to -6) (Over/Under 42)
Raise your hand if you expected the shellacking the Bengals suffered last week. I imagine a lot of you are pointing towards the sky right now, because that was, quite frankly, an abomination. It should be a valuable lesson to all of us not to overrate what you see from week to week – but especially Week 1. The Bengals went toe to toe with the Seahawks and by rights should have stolen a road win. The hype train around Zac Taylor went from a pedestrian trundle to a full-speed behemoth.
And then the 49ers came to the Queen City and the train veered horribly off the tracks. The tests don’t get any easier for the Bengals with a visit to Buffalo this week, with Sean McDermott’s team riding high at 2-0 having not even played a home game. Under McDermott, the Bills have covered just 53.3% of the time at home – not something to hang your hat on, certainly. Still, this Bills team appears to have found their groove, content being the spoiler and the unconventional team.
Facing Buffalo’s defense may be a test many a quarterback this season can’t pass; this unit figures to be one of the stingiest in the league. In front of a fired-up home crowd with a mistake-prone quarterback in Andy Dalton facing them, I can see only one outcome here. Jump on this line before it inflates further out to seven points.
Pick: Buffalo
NEW YORK JETS at NEW ENGLAND (-17.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
The Monday Night Football injury to Trevor Siemian, a gruesome ankle injury that will likely keep him sidelined for weeks, will see Luke Falk take the controls for this test of tests. To avoid an 0-3 start, the Jets must successfully navigate their way past a Patriots juggernaut showing no signs of slowing. Adam Gase’s playcalling on Monday night, albeit with an unprepared Falk, spoke volumes about his faith in his quarterback: a safe, check down style that New England will devour.
The Patriots under Bill Belichick have covered the spread 60.1% of the time at home since 2003, unsurprisingly the best mark in the league over that period. There is no need to delve into the tactical mismatches the Patriots boast against their division rivals; this should be a cakewalk, pure and simple. As with last week against Miami, the only question is how large the margin of victory is. With an eye on the long haul ahead, don’t be surprised if Jarrett Stidham gets some time in relief of Tom Brady.
Though this spread is large – and likely to increase – picking the Patriots is the only way to proceed.
Pick: New England
OAKLAND at MINNESOTA (-7 to -7.5) (Over/Under 43.5)
Raider Nation was glued to their seats last Sunday, the shimmer of expectation in the air – or was that just the sun beating down on them in the cloying heat? Turns out it was the latter, as the only shimmer on the field belonged to the Kansas City Chiefs, who quickly reminded the Raiders how much work they have ahead. It also served to recontextualize the victory over Denver who, to be frank, have little to offer.
Another test awaits the Silver and Black in Minnesota this week. The line on this contest went up from -7 to -7.5, a nod to the Vikings’ excellent home record and the classic West-Coast-team-traveling-east trend. Since 2014, the Vikings under Mike Zimmer have covered the spread at home an incredible 69% of the time. Against non-conference opponents over that same stretch, they are 75% against the spread. Minnesota is as sure a bet as any in the early window.
Pick: Minnesota
BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY (-6 to -6.5) (Over/Under 55)
The main event among the early games pits two of the AFC’s legitimate contenders against each other, though the Chiefs will perhaps argue their recent resumé deserves more plaudits. With two talented young quarterbacks duking it out, combined with a pair of susceptible defenses, you can see why Vegas has set the total at 55.
Digging down into this matchup makes you wonder: if this game were played on a neutral field, the implied line would be Chiefs by 3.5. That may look absurd when we look back next week as this clash comes down to the wire. No matter how much preparation you do for Lamar Jackson, after all, his offense poses questions the Chiefs will never have answered.
Patrick Mahomes II should have success picking on the Ravens secondary which is missing some key players. What this comes down to is how each quarterback operates in the eye of the storm; thus far in their young careers, Mahomes has the edge in that department. But to count out the Ravens and lay the 6.5 points would be risky.
Pick: Baltimore
ATLANTA at INDIANAPOLIS (-2 to -2.5) (Over/Under 47.5)
The Falcons came out on top in the Battle of the Birds on Sunday night, impressively outlasting the Eagles despite Carson Wentz’s heroics. Dan Quinn’s team showed grit after that humiliating road defeat in Week 1, and that counts for something. Another trek is on the cards for Atlanta this week as they head to Indianapolis for the first home game without Andrew Luck as quarterback.
Jacoby Brissett has performed well as the Colts’ starter, keeping the team on schedule offensively and throwing just one interception in two games so far against five touchdown passes. Frank Reich has necessarily had to adjust the play-calling to suit Brissett’s strengths, but that relationship should only grow as the weeks progress.
In what is potentially another shootout in the early window of games, expect Matt Ryan and Jacoby Brissett to go tit for tat, using short passes and a steadying ground game to control things. The Colts’ defense, however, may be the deciding factor here. At home, they will have a vociferous crowd behind them to cause Atlanta’s banged-up offensive lines problems.
Pick: Indianapolis
DENVER at GREEN BAY (-6.5 to -8) (Over/Under 43)
If the Broncos fans had taken a drink of their beer every time a holding penalty was called on Sunday, I imagine several would still have sore heads. The Denver offense shot itself in the foot countless times, taking big plays off the board and creating an impossible situation for veteran Joe Flacco to navigate. Even when the play is structured and runs on schedule, Joe Cool has been known to flub a few opportunities.
Denver’s defense held up its end of the bargain against the Bears – and Mitchell Trubisky – but Aaron Rodgers will not go so easy on them. Laying eight points at Lambeau Field is standard fare for these Packers, covering 60% of the time at home since 2010 with an average margin of victory of 8.7 points. There is still evidence of tension between the irascible Rodgers and new head coach Matt LaFleur, but this could be just the type of game to get back on track. Flacco in comeback mode could get ugly.
Pick: Green Bay
MIAMI at DALLAS (-16 to -21) (Over/Under 47.5)
One of the many lopsided spreads this week as the 2-0 Cowboys welcome the 0-2 (and possibly soon to be 0-16) Miami Dolphins to Jerry World. The revolving door continues to spin in Miami, with Minkah Fitzpatrick the latest player to leave for draft pick compensation. Whether the Dolphins brass has a cogent plan or not, it is difficult to say. What we know is that they have a talent-poor roster that is frankly incapable of competing in today’s NFL.
Dak Prescott will be more than happy to take full advantage of a reeling team, as the Cowboys have done multiple times in the past. The 21-point spread is not out of line with the talent gap in this game, especially considering how strong Dallas’ defense is. We are likely to see Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen take snaps at quarterback as the Dolphins flounder once again. Expect a comfortable Dallas win. I have learned my lesson from last week not to take the points with Miami.
Pick: Dallas
NEW YORK GIANTS at TAMPA BAY (-4 to -6.5) (Over/Under 48)
Danny Dimes’ moment has finally arrived for the Giants. It was announced this week that first-round pick - and the apple of Dave Gettleman’s eye - Daniel Jones would make his debut against the Buccaneers. Eli Manning, no doubt despondent after his benching, said all the right things in the aftermath of the decision, but you have to think his agent will be sniffing out potential trade offers for the veteran, who obviously believes he has more to offer.
Jones will instantly give the Giants offense a little bit more pep in their step, but he will have to be on guard against this Buccaneers defense that few are speaking out. Todd Bowles has this unit playing excellent football, mixing pressure and coverages effectively to bamboozle quarterbacks. The rookie, in other words, will have his hands full and his head will be swimming in the Tampa heat.
The Giants are still without Golden Tate and it remains to be seen whether Sterling Shepard can play after sustaining a concussion. The Bucs are prone to their own mistakes offensively, but Bruce Arians is too smart to let this golden opportunity slip away.
Pick: Tampa Bay
CAROLINA (-3) at ARIZONA (Over/Under 45.5)
Another one bites the dust, it appears, as news emerged this week from Charlotte that Cam Newton reaggravated the foot injury he sustained in the preseason. The Panthers’ medical staff will do all they can to have Newton ready to play, but it would defy reason to start him on one leg. Kyle Allen, a second-year pro who impressed in a Week 17 clash with the Saints last season, will take over if Newton can’t play – and that may not be the death knell it sounds like for Carolina’s chances.
Even if Allen’s overall game is a few notches below that of Newton’s, the young gunslinger has a nice deep ball and will get the ball out on time. Opportunities will present themselves to take a few shots downfield with an undermanned Cardinals defense still missing Patrick Peterson.
The Arizona offense will be a different matter entirely, with their fast pace causing real issues for teams. While they have started slowly the first two games, future Hall of Fame wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald shared this week that he could hear Detroit defensive backs panting with exertion late in the opening game. Carolina’s defense will have their hands full, but this is a must-win game – and Ron Rivera’s team tends to respond well to being backed into a corner, covering 57.4% of the time after a loss since he took over.
Pick: Carolina
PITTSBURGH at SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) (Over/Under 43.5)
What fate awaits the reeling Steelers after Ben Roethlisberger was lost for the season, as quarterbacks continue to drop like flies? The infrastructure to succeed is certainly in place for Mason Rudolph, who has a top-tier offensive line and an at-times stifling defense to pick him up when he gets knocked down. Rudolph will also be chucking passes to his college teammate James Washington, who could see his development curve spike for the remainder of the season.
The 49ers are off to an impressive 2-0 start, with each win showcasing a different side of the ball; against the Bucs, the defense shone, while the offense flexed their muscles against the Bengals. How Kyle Shanahan chooses to attack the Steelers will be fascinating, and one must wonder how the Niners will cope with the expectations here. This is a key test for the Shanahan/Garoppolo marriage, one that they should pass against a de-facto rookie quarterback.
Pick: San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS at SEATTLE (-5) (Over/Under 44.5)
Like the Steelers, the Saints have some rejigging of their game plan to conduct in the wake of a quarterback injury. Fortunately for New Orleans, Drew Brees is slated to miss just six to eight weeks with a torn ligament in his thumb, though the tests are stiff while the veteran is on the sideline. It all starts this week in Seattle, who are off to a 2-0 start. The Seahawks under Pete Carroll have covered the spread at home 61% of the time, behind only New England.
In other words, the Saints have a mountain to climb in the Pacific North-West. Even with Brees in tow, this would have represented one of their stiffest challenges of the season. New Orleans’ defense gives them a chance to hang in – the Seahawks have been struggling to protect Russell Wilson – but much will depend on Teddy Bridgewater putting the team in positive game scripts. If the Seahawks can establish a lead and play keep away, it could be a long afternoon.
Pick: Seattle
HOUSTON at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-4 to -3.5) (Over/Under 47.5)
Under Anthony Lynn, the Chargers are just 6-9-1 at home, with the caveat that they aren’t playing at their long-term home stadium. While most weeks you will catch a glimpse of a sea of the opposing team’s jerseys in the crowd, that may not be the case this time around with Houston, a team without a long-established fan base, coming to town.
This is a sneaky interesting game in the late afternoon, with both teams likely to be in the AFC playoff hunt come money time at the end of the season. The tiebreaker here could be the clincher. The Texans have played two dramatic games so far, surviving one and being knocked out in the other, while the Chargers haven’t exactly been convincing either.
Both offensive lines have major question marks, which could make this a surprisingly low scoring affair. In a toss-up game, the wise move is to take the points.
Pick: Houston
(Sunday Night) LOS ANGELES RAMS (-2.5 to -3) at CLEVELAND (Over/Under 51)
The Browns are… back? Not so fast, perhaps, but it was encouraging to see Cleveland put together a solid performance on Monday Night Football – even if it was against the Jets. A home game off a short week is next up for Freddie Kitchens and his merry men, with the 2-0 L.A. Rams waltzing in. Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth will be in the building for the Browns’ first Sunday Night Football game in who knows how long.
It all adds up to one question: how will Cleveland cope with the expectations, the extra attention, the lights, the cameras? It is a legitimate issue that will plague them all season, especially if they lose in embarrassing fashion like in Week 1. The Rams have pulled off two excellent victories against quality NFC South opponents and are flying high, looking every bit an NFC contender. The Browns have more to prove, but the Rams have proven it already.
Pick: Los Angeles
(Monday Night) CHICAGO (-5 to -4.5) at WASHINGTON (Over/Under 41.5)
The Bears squeaked through in Denver thanks to a little bit of fortune with the clock, but they will take the road win. Still, huge doubts remain over Mitchell Trubisky’s ability to move this offense up and down the field. A casual remark in the commentary of last week’s Bears game caught the attention of many: that Matt Nagy had simplified the offense from Week 1 to Week 2. Trubisky’s development seems to be stagnating and that is not good news.
The Redskins should be able to rally for a prideful display on Monday Night Football, but how close will they keep it on the scoreboard? Case Keenum has shown grit and toughness in the opening pair of defeats, but the Bears defense has the clear edge on a porous Washington offensive line. The Washington defense, however, may fancy their chances to unsettle and harry Trubisky. The total of 41.5 is suddenly making a lot more sense. Ultimately, though, the quarterback I trust more is Keenum and we must always be wary of the 0-2 home underdog.
Pick: Washington
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Though we may have more clarity after two weeks of play, things are still developing in the 2019 story. Week 3 is likely to throw up a few shocks, so it is wise to keep the best bets to a minimum. As usual, Las Vegas has done a very good job of making lines, even with all the personnel changes in recent weeks. The way to best play this week is to look at the teams most likely to come away with a win and then tease them together (similar to how to best play the NFL playoffs). That narrows the focus down to four games for 6-point teasers. Here is how they rank:
- 1 GREEN BAY (-8) vs. DENVER
- 2 MINNESOTA (-7.5) vs. OAKLAND
- 3 TAMPA BAY (-6.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- 4 SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) vs. PITTSBURGH
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 3 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- TAMPA BAY (-0.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- SAN FRANCISCO (-0.5) vs. PITTSBURGH
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- TAMPA BAY (-0.5)
- SAN FRANCISCO (-0.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- GREEN BAY (-2) vs. DENVER
- MINNESOTA (-1.5) vs. OAKLAND
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (-2)
- MINNESOTA (-1.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Green Bay, Minnesota, Houston, LA Rams
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 8-8
- SEASON OVERALL: 19-13 (59.3%)
- BEST BETS: 6-4 (60%), last week 1-3
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 7-6 (53.8%), last week 3-3
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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