Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Week 1 produced its fair share of thrills and spills, but buying into the hype too early can leave your bankroll dented in a significant way. Similarly, punting on teams that looked more like a JV squad than an NFL team would be premature – even for the Dolphins. The key thing is to remain sanguine, trust your process and your existing knowledge of teams, players, schemes and that gut feeling that can often be the clincher.
Like Week 1, this week’s action features some heavy favorites with generous points spreads. These lines can be an opportunity to pounce, but we must pick our spots wisely and rely on historical trends for added context. Without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s slate of games.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday) TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA (-5 to -6.5) (Over/Under 51)
The Panthers will be keen to get the bad taste of the Rams loss out of their system with a quick turnaround on Thursday night. The four-day turnaround is tough on players, but there is a sense that getting this game out of the way early in the year, when presumably most players are as healthy as they will be all year, is worth it. Carolina’s record against the spread as the home favorite under Ron Rivera is 27-19-1 and is bettered only by New England and Green Bay over that period.
The Buccaneers limp into Charlotte with their tails between their legs after suffering a chastening home defeat to the 49ers, who themselves weren’t world-beaters. Jameis Winston’s charitable streak knew no bounds, with not just one pick-six, but two. The Ringer’s Bill Simmons called it the rarefied ‘pick 12’. The four-day run-in, coupled with the fact this is a road game, explains the line move by 1.5 points – Vegas is clearly jumping ship on the Bucs, if you’ll excuse the thinly disguised pirate pun.
The one saving grace for the Bucs might be their defense, which played some excellent football on Sunday. They will need to be assignment-sound on Thursday night to contain a Panthers offense that can explode for points in bunches.
Pick: Carolina
ARIZONA at BALTIMORE (-13.5 to -13) (Over/Under 42.5)
Prior to Arizona’s clash with Detroit, the popular opinion was that the Lions, a run-first, smashmouth offense, would pound away and beat their opponents into submission. They succeeded for a while, controlling the ball while their defense hassled and harried Kyler Murray. But inevitably, the Lions disappointed and couldn’t maintain their vice grip on proceedings. The Ravens will not make the same mistake.
Quite frankly, if Murray thought the onslaught from the Lions was rough, the Baltimore one will make it look like a walk in the park. The Ravens don’t boast the same defensive star power that they used to, but they have the horses and the scheme to cause real problems. In Murray’s first road game, with an offensive line ill-equipped to hold up before breaking, the number one pick might be running for his life.
Credit has to go to Baltimore for the win over Miami; it is no mean feat to score 50+ points against any NFL team, but there is definitely an element of ‘put an asterisk next to the Miami win’. Expect Lamar Jackson, who was salty in the post-game press conference (quipping ‘Not bad for a running back’ after tossing five touchdown passes) to come out firing, bending the feeble Cardinals defense to his will.
Pick: Baltimore
DALLAS (-7 to -4.5) at WASHINGTON (Over/Under 44)
Is that a Cheshire cat-like grin I see forming on Jerry Jones’ face? Why yes, I think it is. Everything is coming up Big D right now, with Ezekiel Elliott back in tow, a stifling defense flying around and a signal-caller in Dak Prescott playing to prove a point. The Cowboys have one of the most complete rosters in football, and their Week 1 victory was a muscle flex for all the league to see.
The Redskins kept swinging against the Eagles, bloodying their rival’s nose a couple of times early before wilting down the stretch, as is their wont. A home game may provide some solace, but there are too many questions with this roster. The offensive line played above itself against the Eagles; how sustainable is that, really? Case Keenum rolled back the years, chucking the ball around for fun to a bunch of no-name receivers; when will that magic run out? My guess would be sooner rather than later.
Washington has surprisingly covered on 54.1% of occasions in division games since 2009, but this team is simply not in the right space to tackle the Dallas buzz saw, which can cut you in so many ways.
Pick: Dallas
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (-3) (Over/Under 44)
The Titans were counted out by most before they even got off the bus in Cleveland, with the football world at large buying in to talk instead of results. The visitors channeled that perfectly, recording a statement victory that not only put the Browns in their place but sent out a warning to the AFC at large that they are not to be underrated. The results aren’t always pretty, but they have a toughness about them that is reminiscent of their head coach Mike Vrabel’s playing style many moons ago.
They face a totally different challenge this week in that the expectations will be firmly on their shoulders with the Jacoby Brissett-led Colts coming to town. The Colts should be encouraged by a valiant effort in Los Angeles; if the overtime coin toss had gone the other way, they might well have escaped with a victory. Kicking woes aside, Frank Reich and his staff have plenty to work with. The three-point spread here is a mark of respect for Indianapolis, who have some defensive gems growing every week.
These AFC South clashes can sometimes be low scoring, as reflected in the modest total, and this feels like a bit of a coin flip game. Still, the Titans may have the edge talent-wise and can certainly get Derrick Henry rumbling against a Colts defense that gave up rushing yards for fun last week. If you can get the Titans at -3, jump on it.
Pick: Tennessee
SEATTLE at PITTSBURGH (-4 to -3.5) (Over/Under 47)
There is a popular saying in the NFL that usually gets pulled out by pundits after a disappointing Week 1 loss by a team expected to be a playoff contender. ‘Team X can’t go 0-2,’ they cry. Well, nothing says it cannot happen, but some teams have a way of responding when their backs are firmly against the wall. Enter the Steelers, whose loss to the Patriots wasn’t just convincing, but embarrassing. Defensively inept and flailing at thin air most of the time, nothing seemed to be clicking. Ben Roethlisberger was often going to his third and fourth read, desperately trying to find someone – anyone – to throw the ball to.
The Seahawks may be on the end of a backlash this week in Heinz Field, with the Steelers covering 54.5% of the time at home since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007. The line move here would indicate a public reaction to the New England debacle, but it would be unwise to jump ship on the men from Pittsburgh just yet.
Granted, there are many issues they will need to address – and the Seahawks will not be fazed by the hostile home crowd, it has to be said – but the expectation is that Tomlin can rally his troops to get back on track and reassert themselves as an AFC contender. Beware the 0-1 team facing the 1-0 team.
Pick: Pittsburgh
BUFFALO (-2.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS (Over/Under 43)
Slowly and carefully, Sean McDermott has molded this Buffalo Bills roster into what he envisaged when he first took the job. Patience proved to be a virtue for McDermott, who had to wait his turn as he continued to coach top-10 defenses in Carolina. Last week’s game in the Meadowlands was a perfect encapsulation of McDermott’s team: hanging in, showing tenacity and eventually hitting the opponent with a forearm shiver just when they think they’ve got Buffalo dead to rights.
The Bills’ close to the vest, defensive style isn’t going to win many admirers among fans who adore high-flying attacks, points fests and incredible feats of athleticism. But it is nonetheless effective and a fitting counterpunch to the way the NFL is trending. The fact that the once-heralded Giants are giving 2.5 points at home is not only an indictment of New York’s talent but an endorsement of Buffalo’s.
Ugly football can be pretty when it produces wins. The Giants have been playing putrid football, one could argue, for the best part of three seasons and it has not produced wins. The Bills have the potential to implode if Josh Allen continues to play fast and loose, but the four-turnover performance last week could be exactly what the coaching staff needs to reel him in. The Giants are in no place defensively to deal with Buffalo’s formula.
Pick: Buffalo
SAN FRANCISCO (-1.5 to +1) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 45)
This line has moved a full 2.5 points in Cincinnati’s favor as Vegas catches up to the fact that new Bengals head coach Zac Taylor might be on to something. Holding their own in Seattle, the Bengals won some plaudits – and deservedly so. John Ross looked revitalized with a new number on his jersey, Andy Dalton looked poised and in control (apart from that fumble) and the defense was salty.
The 49ers possess a more complete skill position arsenal than the Seahawks do, but the man at the controls, Jimmy Garoppolo, may still hold them back. There is a sense that young quarterback is still finding his feet as a starter, a hesitance the Bengals should be able to pounce on - if you’ll excuse the low-hanging fruit animal pun.
A tight game awaits us in the Queen City, but the home team is being disrespected with the -1 line. This smacks of a game that Vegas has no idea what to do with; capitalize on the uncertainty.
Pick: Cincinnati
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-2.5 to -3) at DETROIT (Over/Under 48)
The Lions had it in their grasp. A win beckoned, which would have sent the hobbled Matt Patricia into raptures. After all, the Lions’ upcoming schedule is not kind; notching a win on the road in Week 1 would have been a massive confidence booster. Unfortunately, along came Jim Bob Cooter, who called a timeout when it appeared Matthew Stafford had basically clinched the game. Lions gonna lion, folks.
Detroit is just 3-5 against the spread at home under Matt Patricia. Granted, it is a small enough sample size, but has this team really removed the stench that is so often associated with them? Probably not. Along come the Chargers, who just about squeezed past the plucky Colts at home. Lost amid the scenes of jubilation in Los Angeles, however, is the ineptitude of the offensive line which hung Philip Rivers out to dry on many occasions. Tackle combination Trent Scott and Sam Tevi shouldn’t scare any edge player.
The Lions are no slouches in the front seven, but it should be noted the Chargers are 12-5-1 against the spread as the road team under Anthony Lynn. Still, those teams had functional offensive lines. Expect Detroit to cook up some pressure packages to create confusion and sneak a win here. Take the points. As before, beware the 0-1 team facing the 1-0 team, especially when the former is at home.
Pick: Detroit
MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY (-3) (Over/Under 46)
Not many in the football world are still talking about the consummate defensive display put forth by the Packers last Thursday night. Perhaps they should be. Not only did Green Bay look competent, but they also looked downright dangerous. The visit of the Vikings always produces fireworks, but as Kirk Cousins reviews film this week, he might gulp a little bit harder knowing the challenge he faces.
And let’s be honest about the Vikings win – Cousins had an armchair ride. He attempted only 10 passes as Dalvin Cook and the defense took the team home. At Lambeau Field, he will have to get his arm a little bit looser in what could be a shootout. Both teams have high-quality defenses, but Vegas’ total of 46 would suggest a classic 23-20 NFC North tilt is in store.
In division games since 2010, the Packers have covered an impressive 56.1% of the time. This team has new life, and at home, they should be able to show it despite Minnesota resistance.
Pick: Green Bay
JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON (-9.5 to -8.5) (Over/Under 43.5)
The Texans will still be sick after their loss at the Superdome, but Week 2 is fast approaching and they have little time to dwell. The good news is that they went toe to toe with a legitimate NFC superpower, in their house, and came this close to knocking them off. No mean feat. DeAndre Hopkins continues to dazzle, the defense looks stingy at times and Deshaun Watson is a superstar.
All of it adds up to a tough assignment on the road for Jacksonville, now led by rookie Gardner Minshew, which must be one of the better quarterback names in many a year. Minshew looked better than expected for a rookie in Week 1, but a road game in Houston figures to be a daunting assignment for the young pup. The Texans should be able to have their way at home and take out some of their lingering frustration from the Big Easy.
Pick: Houston
NEW ENGLAND (-14.5 to -18.5) at MIAMI (Over/Under 47)
Yes, you read that correctly. The Patriots are favored by 18.5 points in Miami, a line which has been betted up by four points as the football world writ large chew on the Dolphins’ ineptitude. There is no need to expend too much on the tactical nuances of this game; likely we are looking at a fish fry in Miami, with Tom Brady the head chef. The defending champions should slice and dice here, but it would go against all my wagering instincts to recommend laying 18.5 points in an NFL game.
The backdoor cover for Miami is a distinct possibility, and surely Brian Flores’ players will produce a more competent display than last week. That may be the hopeless optimist in me speaking, though.
Pick: Miami (reluctantly)
KANSAS CITY (-8.5 to -8) at OAKLAND (Over/Under 52.5)
Jon Gruden cooked up a surprisingly effective game plan against the Broncos, neutering the pass-rushing duo of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb and relying on a ground and pound approach to kill the game off. A different challenge awaits this week as the Chiefs, a little banged up from their trek out to Florida, go west. Patrick Mahomes II’ high ankle sprain has to be a concern for the team, especially if swelling isn’t kept under control. His mobility is a huge trump card.
The line is generous to the Chiefs on the road, but they clearly have the superior roster. Can Gruden, on a short week, realistically craft a strategy to limit Mahomes (limiting is the best he can hope for; stopping him completely is just crazy talk). The Monday night game will give some pause, but this is still a wide gulf in class.
Pick: Kansas City
NEW ORLEANS at LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3) (Over/Under 53)
Arguably the game of the week in Los Angeles as the Saints come to town for a potential NFC playoff matchup preview. The Rams have only covered the spread at home 43.8% of the time under Sean McVay, which could be explained by how many large spreads they have had to contend with. This week, it is just three points, a nod to the quality team facing them.
The Rams will have been buoyed by the performance of their offensive line in Carolina, especially as run blockers. They mashed the Panthers’ vaunted front seven on several occasions and kept Jared Goff clean to boot. The Saints front seven will provide a stout test, certainly, but the Rams should have the advantage here. In what should be a back and forth affair, trust the home team to deliver.
Pick: Los Angeles
CHICAGO at DENVER (-1 to +2.5) (Over/Under 40.5)
The loss to the Packers feels like ancient history now for the Bears, perhaps, but it shouldn’t for one man: Mitchell Trubisky. The execution was spotty in that Thursday opener at times for both teams at times, but Trubisky will be keen to prove people wrong. The problem is, his offense faces an irritated Broncos defense that was embarrassed on Monday night. Bradley Chubb and Von Miller will fancy their chances up against this Bears line, with crowd noise a huge factor in Mile High.
It boggles the mind that the Broncos have gone from a slim favorite to an underdog, ostensibly all because of one game. This is a classic bounce-back spot for the home team, who can send the Bears to 0-2 behind a defensive game plan crafted by the very man who went up against Trubisky in practice as recently as last year, Vic Fangio.
Pick: Denver
(Sunday Night) PHILADELPHIA at ATLANTA (pick) (Over/Under 51)
In case one clash of NFC superpowers in Los Angeles wasn’t enough, we are treated to another undercard matchup on Sunday night. Philadelphia shook off the cobwebs and punched their way out of the corner at home last week, swiping the Redskins’ challenge aside – eventually. Atlanta, on the other hand, was bent over backward, choke slammed, and manhandled by the Vikings.
Interestingly, Atlanta under Dan Quinn has covered the spread only 37% of the time coming off a loss. The Eagles present some legitimate problems for the Falcons’ offensive line, who as a unit will be smarting after last week. The expectation here is that the Falcons show a little spunk, box out of the corner and at the very least give Philadelphia everything they can handle. A slight edge to the home team.
Pick: Atlanta
(Monday Night) CLEVELAND (-2.5) at NEW YORK JETS (Over/Under 46)
Vegas isn’t done with the Browns just yet! Despite last week’s debacle at home, Cleveland is laying points on the road to a comparable team in the New York Jets. As a home underdog since 2010, the Jets have covered 61.3% of the time. Adam Gase isn’t likely to use the line as bulletin board material, but to be counted out like that before a ball is caught or kicked is a little much.
The loss of C.J. Mosley was a hammer blow to the Jets last week – everything fell apart once he left the game with a groin injury – but the news is he is set to return. In front of a raucous Monday night crowd, the Jets will give the Browns everything they can handle. Cleveland’s offensive line woes won’t simply disappear in a week. It will come down to which young quarterback, Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold, can better manage the occasion. An 0-2 hole awaits the loser.
Pick: New York Jets
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Week 2 is not the time to be a hero. As usual, Las Vegas has done a very good job of making lines, even with all the personnel changes in recent weeks. The way to best play this week is to look at the teams most likely to come away with a win and then tease them together (similar to how to best play the NFL playoffs). That narrows the focus down to four games for 6-point teasers. Here is how they rank:
- 1 HOUSTON (-8.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- 2 BALTIMORE (-13) vs. ARIZONA
- 3 KANSAS CITY (-8) at OAKLAND
- 4 CAROLINA (-6.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 1 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- CAROLINA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BALTIMORE (-7) vs. ARIZONA
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-0.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- BALTIMORE (-7) vs. ARIZONA
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- KANSAS CITY (-2) at OAKLAND
- HOUSTON (-2.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-2) at OAKLAND
- HOUSTON (-2.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Kansas City, Detroit, Denver
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
OVERALL: 11-5 (68.75%)
BEST BETS: 5-1 (83.3%)
PICK OF THE WEEK: 4-3 (57%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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