To win your league, you need overachievers. Not every fairy tale will have a happy ending, but to justify a pick, you should at least be able to tell yourself a story about how a player can vastly exceed expectations. Here’s one player from each NFC team that can do just that.
NFC East
Dallas
Jason Witten, TE - This could be Amari Cooper if he elevates his game in year two with Dak Prescott, but he would have to get a significant volume spike to accomplish that. Witten is the low-hanging fruit although he’s not going to change the destiny of your fantasy team. He was a low TE1 the last time we saw him, and he should be similar this year. He’ll be an excellent bye/injury/emergency tight end at worst and could level off as a consistent floor tight end option in PPR leagues.
New York Giants
Evan Engram, TE - Engram’s numbers have risen significantly when Odell Beckham was out, and now Beckham is a Brown. He’ll still have to catch balls from a veteran with one foot in the grave or a raw rookie, but if this offense is functional and teams sell out to stop Saquon Barkley, Engram could be a good vertical playmaking tight end, and his game could grow in his third year. The reality is that this offense is one of the least likely to produce an overachiever of any in the league, so this is a lukewarm endorsement of Engram, or any Giants outside of Barkley, who can’t really blow away an ADP of 1.01 in any scenario. If Golden Tate’s suspension holds up, at least Engram could get off to a very good start.
Philadelphia
Dallas Goedert, TE - Goedert wasn’t fully integrated into the offense as a rookie, but it sounds like he had a great spring and will be a bigger part of the offense this year. He, Nelson Agholor, and DeSean Jackson should all play 50-60% of the snaps, but he could be a more frequent target than either of them because of his massive mismatch potential, and his red-zone prowess adds ceiling to his weekly line even if he isn’t a true full-time player. The bar for fantasy relevance at tight end is low, and Goedert only needs to convert on his modest, but increased opportunities to get over it. If Zach Ertz or a top-three wideout miss extended time, Goedert should be a top-five tight end option for that stretch to boot.
Washington
Trey Quinn, WR - If there’s an offense we should all completely avoid in drafts, Washington is the easy choice. If we do dabble in that potential dumpster fire, we should keep the investment to a minimum. Quinn is a late/last round pick in PPR leagues who could easily lead the team in receptions and targets and provide WR3/Flex contributions as a short-range target in an offense that can’t accomplish much more than that a la Jalen Richard in Oakland last season.
NFC North
Chicago
Allen Robinson, WR - The Bears offense will spread the ball around, but it still has a clear #1 receiver, and that is Robinson. He is turning 26 this summer and has barely gotten into the prime of his career. He wasn’t healthy last year and had to develop chemistry with a new quarterback in a new system. Everyone is on year two together now, and Robinson looks more explosive and more comfortable in his role. He was an elite fantasy receiver with Blake Bortles, so Mitchell Trubisky shouldn’t hold Robinson back.
Detroit
Kerryon Johnson, RB - This seems more obvious now that Theo Riddick has been released, but it still feels like the fantasy community is underestimating Johnson’s ceiling. He is a true three-down back in an offense that will give him all of the work he can handle - and he can handle a lot. Johnson could be considered roughly on the same level as Joe Mixon value-wise by Week 3 after facing the Cardinals and Chargers run defenses to open the season.
Green Bay
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR - The good Aaron Rodgers could routinely support two strong fantasy wide receiver plays every week. Even while Rodgers was hurt and struggling last year and Valdes-Scantling was a rookie, the two hooked up for a month to the tune of 15-317-2 over their best four-week-stretch. Those numbers project out to WR2 level production. Valdes-Scantling is currently being drafted as a WR4/WR5, sometimes lasting until the 10th round or later. The Packers should use more two tight ends this year, something that won’t harm Valdes-Scantling as an outside receiver, and yet projected slot receiver Geronimo Allison’s ADP is similar to Valdes-Scantling. This should rectify itself assuming Valdes-Scantling can secure the #2 job that was presumed to be his at the open of camp.
Minnesota
Dalvin Cook, RB - Cook has to avoid the injury bug, and his offensive line has to gel. If we can get those two factors to stabilize, Cook is set up for top-five running back numbers in a Kubiak/Dennison running game that is tailor-made for his skill set. The offense should be more conservative and run through Cook this year, and with the lack of an accomplished backup, he’ll get the opportunity to put up numbers to match the running backs going off of the board in the top four.
NFC South
Atlanta
Devonta Freeman, RB - This one is really too easy and it makes you look over your shoulder when you take Freeman in the third. He has proven top-five upside, no real competition for touches, and a healthy, uneventful offseason. Freeman had the feel of a back whose body was breaking down the last two years, but the team has not made any comments or moves that suggest that they expect anything but prime Freeman in his age-27 season. The team invested a lot in the offensive line and should be among the top offenses in the league. No one should be surprised if Freeman is a strong RB1 who should have been drafted in the first round when the dust settles this year.
Carolina
Curtis Samuel, WR - The ADP gap between Samuel and DJ Moore continues to be puzzling. Samuel and Moore had roughly the same production down the stretch, had roughly the same draft capital investment, and are on roughly the same point in their career arc and development as wide receivers. Greg Olsen staying healthy all year could limit the upside of both receivers, but Cam Newton looks good coming off of his shoulder surgery, and Samuel has been one of the toasts of training camp to date.
New Orleans
Jared Cook, TE - The Saints offense will feature Michael Thomas (assuming they work something out with him soon - and they should) and Alvin Kamara, so finding an overachiever is more difficult, but Cook qualifies. He posted a career year across the board last year with Derek Carr. Now he’s in an offense that creates a lot of room for the tight end to operate and his team aggressively went for him in free agency to fill a spot that has lacked playmaking ability since they traded Jimmy Graham to Seahawks in 2015. He could be closer to the top three than the pack at tight end and give teams that take him in the mid-rounds an unfair advantage.
Tampa Bay
O.J. Howard, TE - This offensive will continue to be very aggressive throwing downfield with Bruce Arians at the helm, and they don’t have a bigger mismatch maker than Howard. He already produced at a top-five clip last year in a passing offense that had more mouths to feed that this year’s edition, which lacks Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson. Chris Godwin could have been listed here instead, and if he catches 100 balls, he might flirt with WR1 value in PPR leagues, but Howard would provide more tactical value to fantasy teams if he takes the next step to become a 1000-yard, 10-touchdown tight end and crash the top three with an ADP that often doesn’t require a top 50 pick to add him to your team.
NFC West
Arizona
Kyler Murray, QB - Quite frankly, the league hasn’t seen anything like Kyler Murray at the helm of a pure air raid installation before. We’ve had plenty of running quarterbacks come this way before, but none with his ability and mentality to keep the whole field in play via arm talent and scheme. He will be in a situation that will push the limits of pace of aggressiveness in passing mindset and he’ll have the ability to make a fantasy week with his legs alone. Murray and Kingsbury’s love story might not have a happy ending, but it will have the ability to redefine the weekly ceiling for a fantasy quarterback along the way.
Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson, RB - Henderson will have trouble surpassing ADP value if Todd Gurley stays healthy and feels good all year, but at least now we have confirmation that he will be in a role similar to Chris Thompson, who was in the vicinity of fantasy RB1 numbers with Washington under McVay. That should help reinforce a floor that still comes with a ceiling that has league-winning potential if Gurley’s knee causes him to lose edge the way it did in December and the playoffs last year. Henderson remains compelling at ADP, representing an exciting intersection of talent, situation, and role.
San Francisco
Marquise Goodwin, WR - How quickly we forget that Goodwin was emerging as a #1 at this time last year and moving into the 5th-6th round range. While there has been a lot of talk that Goodwin’s snaps will be reduced, a player with his deep speed and ability to make a fantasy week on one play doesn’t need a ton of snaps and targets to be relevant. The reduced snap approach could keep him healthy, and if he and Jimmy Garoppolo click the way they did in late 2017 and 2018 camp, it will be difficult to not feed the fire with more opportunity. This might sound aspirational, but it doesn’t take much to blow away ADP when it is in the very late rounds. If Goodwin stay healthy can level off as a boom/bust WR3/Flex that overwhelms your fantasy opponent’s option when he and Garoppolo find a weak spot in the opposing secondary, he will be a massive success.
Seattle
Tyler Lockett, WR - The Wilson to Lockett hook up was so good last year that it challenged notions of just how many targets a wide receiver needs to be an every-week starter in fantasy leagues. Lockett was a solid WR2 with just 71 targets. What happens this year when he is the clear #1 receiver and gets to operate more often from the slot? Doug Baldwin was a strong WR1 when he and Wilson got hot in the past and it’s not a stretch to see Lockett recreating that, especially early in the season when the team will face top offenses and their defense will have one of the most anemic pass rushes in the league while Jarran Reed serves his six-game suspension.
