Touchdowns are NFL and fantasy football game-changers. While volume is nice (and a precursor to scoring), a touchdown shifts head-to-head matchups with a single play. Touchdown regression is the premise of betting on the big-picture probability of a player regressing towards the NFL average and/or their individual career average. Looking at the first seven weeks of the season, here are the regression candidates at quarterback and tight end:
Quarterbacks
Positive Regression Candidates
Dalton has his lowest career touchdown rate through seven games in 2019 at a paltry 2.8%. He was nearly doubled that over the past two seasons combined and 4.7% for his career. Even with a troubling offensive line and John Ross injured, A.J. Green should return soon (pending a potential trade) as a potential boost.
After strong seasons in 2017 and 2018, Goff has waned to a 3.2% touchdown rate and 2.5% interception rate, both solidly worse than the previous two years. Goff's completion rate is also down and his YPA (yards-per-attempt) is down more than a yard. On the positive side, Goff has been one of the better quarterbacks in the red zone and inside the 10-yard-line with six touchdowns and no interceptions. The schedule is also conducive without a difficult matchup until (maybe) Dallas in Week 15 and San Francisco in Week 16.
The sophomore slump is in full swing for Mayfield after a historically strong rookie season. Mayfield's touchdown and interception rates have switched places from a year ago with his touchdown rate down more than 3% and interceptions rate nearly double. Mayfield also leads the NFL with three interceptions inside the 10-yard-line and is just 4-for-17 in the same zone overall as an area for improvement. The offensive line is a factor plus Mayfield is playing fast and jittery as an overarching observation. The weapons are elite, however, and the schedule softens tremendously after stingy New England and Denver matchups the next two weeks the rest of the way.
Negative Regression Candidates
Is this is a career year in the works for Cousins? It could be, but the touchdown regression probability is high for the rest of the season. Cousins leads the NFL at 6.9% in touchdown rate with a previous career-high at 5.3%. Also, Cousins is sporting his lowest interception rate (1.6%), 50% below his career average. Finally, the Vikings' schedule is more negative than positive for the rest of the season for adjusted quarterback matchups. Five of the last eight fantasy season matchups are negative with no strong matchups left.
Now Andrew Luck's long-term replacement in Indianapolis, Brissett leads the NFL with a 9-0 ratio inside the 10-yard-line and 13-0 ratio (touchdown/interception) in the red zone. Brissett is near the NFL lead in overall touchdown rate (6.8%) with a mere 1.5% interception rate. With only 1.5 seasons as a starter, Brissett's sample size makes for the least confidence of this regression collection prediction group.
Tight Ends
POSITIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES
Kelce quizzically has a single touchdown over 38 receptions (57 targets) this season. Kelce has a career 7.3% touchdown rate, a mark he is less than half of thus far in 2019. Kelce leads the Chiefs in red-zone targets and especially inside the 10-yard-line by a hearty margin (Kelce with six targets and eight for the rest of the team) and yet has just the single short-range touchdown.
Ertz has not been a high touchdown rate option in his career, but his 2.8% in 2019 (one touchdown overall) is still a far cry from his more-than-double 6.3% career rate. Ertz's volume is also down from a record-setting 2018 campaign, along with his catch rate dropping 15%. Ertz is the leading Eagles red zone target, but inside the 10 is where his opportunities have shriveled with only one target, while the rest of the team has 12 looks at point-blank range.
Kittle is the final tight end of the 'Big 3' in 2018 to have a touchdown outage to start 2019. Kittle's career rate before 2019 is the lowest of the tights listed here at a paltry 5.3%, but his 2.9% in 2019 is still nearly half of his historical rate. Kittle is the leading red zone target for the 49ers, but he has just two looks inside the 10-yard-line without a catch as three other 49ers have corralled short-range touchdowns on the season over Kittle.
NEGATIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES
Fells has been a part-time player in his career with a balmy 14.7% touchdown rate for his pre-2019 career between Arizona, Detroit, and Cleveland stints. Fells has already matched his career-high for touchdowns (3) in seven games despite low volume (22 targets) and seeing the third-most targets for Houston in the red zone and just one look inside the 10-yard-line.
Ebron is a tale of two teams touchdown rate player as he rarely scored in Detroit and posted a sky-high 19.6% rate for the Colts last year in his breakout season. Ebron is breaking the year-over-year regression trend at present with a 23% rate through seven games (on a mere 13 receptions) but with a historical track record to expect a drop of at least 5-8% over the second half of the season. Ebron has the third-most targets for the Colts in the red zone and inside the 10-yard-line to-date.
