The opening week of the NFL season presented the first data points in months. Dynasty GMs are left with a variety of avenues to navigate player value including:
- What was a trend and what was an outlier from Week 1?
- Assessing your roster strengths and weaknesses going forward
- The fertile ground of early-season waiver wire players
- Are trades needed for the dynasty roster?
- Finally, setting the Week 2 lineup
The highest leverage aspects of the Dynasty GM's action plan this week are how they will assess potential roster weaknesses and navigating the trade market.
THE SELL LIST
The easier list and action plan involves players to sell as the marketplace is the rest of the league, where buying a player is a market of you (the buyer) working a deal with one specific GM about a specific player.
- Mitchell Trubisky
- Jimmy Garoppolo
Both quarterbacks are building their sample size without impressive results as a strong distributor of fantasy points in the passing game. Starting with Garoppolo, he has 10 games played in his three-year San Francisco career to-date with a mere 13-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio and below (worse than) the NFL average in interception rate in both 2017 and 2018. Unlike Trubisky, Garoppolo offers minimal rushing ability to boost his fantasy numbers. Trubisky is also in a conducive offensive system but is hardly the reason for any success of the Bears offense. Trubisky made progress in 2018 to slightly above-average in many categories but still struggles with accuracy on intermediate and downfield throws.
Both Garoppolo and Trubisky are generally in the mid-teens of dynasty quarterback rankings and/or ADP (average draft position). In a start-1QB format, seeking an option like Christian Kirk or packaging Trubisky or Garoppolo together with a mid-level (Jarvis Landry type) wide receiver to pivot to an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes II are examples of recent trade construction for optimistic executed deals. In the Superflex marketplace, either one should garner a future Round 1 rookie pick or even something added on to the pick.
Williams dominated the Chiefs' running back snaps in Week 1, but it felt like LeSean McCoy was merely getting his feet wet with the offense and ramping up for more snaps and usage in short order. Williams shifting to a 1B or more receiving-centric role will still have value but more in the low-RB2 or Flex lineup conversation than an auto-start like Week 1. Williams was a tough sell in the offseason based around the general market being skeptical of Williams to be the unquestioned starter and being such a late-career bloomer if he did pull off the strong start-to-finish 2019 performance. Any future first-round pick would be a dynasty trade win in return for Williams, but even a 2020 Round 2 pick and an injury-away type running back is an acceptable outcome.
Cohen was the leading snap running back for the Bears in Week 1 at 70%, but the number is misleading as Cohen was largely in a receiver alignment instead of in the backfield. Mike Davis and David Montgomery are firmly ahead of Cohen for running back opportunities in the crowded backfield and the Bears are a spread-it-around attack on offense anyways to temper Cohen's upside, which will be high variance and tough to project week-to-week as a satellite option. In trading away Cohen the goal should be to acquire a more stable long-term asset and/or a running back with a more prototypical profile to be an unquestioned starter. Recent trades of this ilk include Cohen, 3rd, and 4th for 20 1st, Cohen for T.Y. Hilton, and Cohen and 20 3rd for Devin Singletary as ideas.
There are multiple variables at play to make Gordon not worth the trouble. First, his own long-standing oscillation between eligible to play and out of commission. The second part is Antonio Brown's potential presence in the offseason, which would siphon the upside from all other pieces. Yes, the best case is Gordon could be active for the entire season and Brown could torpedo his chances in New England as quickly as they start. However, a heavy majority of the outcomes involve one of those two things turning against Gordon and this sell window dissolving quickly. Examples of recent trades include:
- Gordon, David Johnson, Eric Ebron for Christian McCaffrey
- Gordon, 20 4th, 20 5th for Darren Waller, 20 1st
- Gordon, J.K.Dobbins for Julio Jones
The Eagles are absolutely loaded on offense with a host of weapons to siphon targets from Ertz after his record-setting 2018 season. Four Eagles had at least five targets in Week 1 and that did not include Dallas Goedert, who saw a hearty 55% of snaps and is bound to have a handful of quality games. With Evan Engram crashing the elite tight end tier, Ertz is losing his grip on true impact in start-1TE formats. Recent trades including Ertz to offer ideas:
- Ertz, D.J. Chark for George Kittle
- Ertz, Justice Hill for Kenny Golladay, David Njoku, 20 1st
- Ertz for David Njoku, 20 1st, 2nd, 3rd
THE BUY LIST
- Backup Running Backs
Dynasty GMs chase opportunity in-season and No.2 running backs can be the best investments for future weeks. They are an injury away from a prominent role for a fraction of the cost. The most affordable No.2 backs who stand to inherit a strong workload with a single injury include:
- Malcolm Brown
- Chase Edmonds
- Ty Montgomery
- Wayne Gallman
- DErnest Johnson
- Jamaal Williams
- Justin Jackson
- Jaylen Samuels
- Kirk, 20 2nd for Jarvis Landry
- Kirk, Ronald Jones, Bryce Love for Sony Michel
- Kirk for Justice Hill, Albert Wilson, Chris Herndon
- Washington for Irv Smith Jr.
- Washington, 21 1st for Darren Waller, 20 2nd
- Washington, Marquise Brown for Devonta Freeman
- Washington for 20 3rd
