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Valdes-Scantling is Scintillating

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ("MVS") was one of three rookie receivers drafted by the Packers last year, in an attempt to infuse speed, youth, and talent into a receiving corps that had lost its luster when Jordy Nelson left town. Unfortunately, the trio didn't get an opportunity to put their best foot forward, as they were caught up in the maelstrom of a Packers locker room deeply divided by a star quarterback who had come to blame his head coach (and play-caller) for the Packers ineptitude. Aaron Rodgers frequently berated the young receivers and fixated on throwing to Davante Adams -- his only trusted playmaker -- to the detriment of the team's overall productivity.

But hope springs eternal, as Matt LaFleur takes over as head coach and is promising a more creative, explosive, and adaptable passing attack. In order for LaFleur's plans to come to fruition, one of the Packers young receivers has to emerge as a viable every-down alternative to Adams. While nothing is set in stone, and a lot can change as training camp and the preseason get underway, right now the savvy move is to draft Valdes-Scantling as your WR4 or WR5 in the 10th round or later, and possibly reap the rewards of a breakout WR2 if the dominoes fall into place.

• Aaron Rodgers remains one of the league's best passers
• The No. 2 receiver in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense has the rare combination of a high floor and high ceiling
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the best of the Packers young receivers
• Valdes-Scantling has made believers of all the key people in the organization, from the GM to the new coaches to Rodgers to Davante Adams
• New head coach Matt LaFleur is promising a more aggressive, adaptable, and productive passing attack

Stating the Obvious – Aaron Rodgers' No. 2 Receiver is a Fantasy Asset

It shouldn’t take a Ph.D. in statistical analysis to know securing the No. 2 receiver role in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense has historically been a good thing.

On average, Rodgers’ No. 2 receiver has finished WR29 – making them a solid but not spectacular starter in 3-WR lineups. But there’s a wide variance, as his No. 2 has been a top-8 fantasy receiver twice, but has been as low as WR66 (last year).

Standing Out in a Crowd

As mentioned, Valdes-Scantling was one of three rookie receivers drafted by the Packers last year; J'Mon Moore and Equanimeous St. Brown were the others. They were joined by second-year Geronimo Allison, at least early in the season before Allison got hurt and missed most of the final three months of the season. Let's compare the four youngsters:

Packers Young Receiver Comparison

MVS led the quartet in targets, receptions, yards and fantasy points. Of the three rookies, it's hard not to completely write off J'Mon Moore given his complete lack of role. He's more likely playing against Trevor Davis and Jake Kumerow for a roster spot than vying for significant snaps. MVS and Equanimeous St. Brown both ran vertical routes frequently (28% and 32%, respectively), but MVS was far more successful; he caught 42% of his deep targets compared to St. Brown's paltry 18% catch rate. MVS has elite speed, and although his catch radius isn't quite up to St. Brown's level, it's well above average.

It's important to mention Geronimo Allison was the clear-cut No. 2 at the start of the season but was sidelined for all but a few plays over the final 12 games, ultimately opting for surgery to repair a core muscle. Prior to his injury, Allison was on pace for 116 targets, 76 receptions, 1,156 yards, and 8 touchdowns. If Allison is healthy, and LaFleur likes what he sees, he could be the breakout star over Valdes-Scantling. But the good news is Allison appears set to transition into the team's primary slot receiver -- an important role but one that wouldn't keep MVS from breaking out as the No. 2 outside option. If Allison lights it up in the preseason and doesn't get pigeon-holed into the slot, all bets are off. For now, we'll assume Allison isn't playing for the same piece of the pie.

Can Matt LaFleur Increase the Size of the Pie?

The $64,000 question is whether new head coach Matt LaFleur is going to improve the Packers offense. The fantasy analyst community widely praised LaFleur's hire, but one has to wonder if the near-universal praise was more about Mike McCarthy’s departure than LaFleur’s arrival. Any coach who spent even a nanosecond with Sean McVay has been dubbed the “next big thing” and LaFleur’s year as McVay’s offensive coordinator in Los Angeles is a big part of the enthusiasm. But we don’t really know what to expect from LaFleur as a play-caller. He didn’t call plays under McVay but finally got this shot in Tennessee last season. It didn’t go particularly well.

2018 Titans Offensive Ranks (Out of 32 Teams)

The Packers brass didn’t put much weight in Tennessee’s offensive travails, so maybe we shouldn’t either. Marcus Mariota was terrible, and the receiving corps lacked playmakers. Putting Aaron Rodgers into the same offensive scheme in place of Mariota is equivalent to replacing a Toyota Prius with a McLaren.

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