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Why Tiers?

Most fantasy owners are used to drafting off a simple ranking of players, but that can mask underlying differences that exist between players. For example, two players may be ranked right next to each other on a cheatsheet but there could be a wide gap in the expected production for them. In that case, you would probably want to draft the higher-ranked player a full-round earlier than the lower-ranked player. Similarly, there may be a large group of players with very similar projections that are bunched together on a ranking sheet. It may seem that a player ranked 10th is much more valuable than a player ranked 15th, but if only a few projected points separate them then they are roughly equivalent in value. Rather than force yourself to pick one, it may be best to focus on another position and then come back to this position in the next round since you’re likely to get a player of nearly identical value.

Grouping players into distinct tiers or buckets provides additional context that allows a drafter to make more informed decisions. The projections we offer at Footballguys also help a lot in this regard, but those are still static projections that may not fully indicate the range of likely outcomes for a player. For example, two players may be projected with similar numbers but one may have significantly more upside and/or a higher floor than the other. Those types of risk vs reward decisions are inherent in any fantasy draft. While drafting the safe players will typically help you build a solid team, you often need to take some chances and hit on some players who significantly exceed their preseason expectations to win.

Rankings are typically helpful in ordering players within the same position group, but tiers can help you figure out which position to take as you move through a draft. If you see a large group of linebackers that are all capable of putting up LB1-type numbers but only one defensive lineman likely to put up elite numbers, it’s wise to grab the lineman and assume at least one of the linebackers will be there for your next pick. This helps you maximize the value of your picks, and is a strategy that all strong fantasy players likely use to some extent.

How to Use the Tiers

1. These tiers are based on expected performance for the 2019 season in a balanced scoring system. While dynasty owners always need to consider long-term outcomes to some extent, the upcoming season is most critical for player value. I’ll highlight some dynasty stash options in a separate tier that you can focus on if you are less concerned about 2019 and want to focus on 2020 and beyond.
2. Positional classifications can differ depending on what your league-hosting website uses. For consistency, I will rely on the official Footballguys player classifications. For the most part, these should match up well with the major sources that exist online but there could be differences. Assigning edge rushers to linebacker or defensive end is the main area that causes issues here as the classification can have a huge impact on fantasy value.
3. Look for an asterisk (*) next to players that have added value in big-play scoring systems. There is a lot of scoring variability that exists among IDP leagues, so if your league places added value on big plays (i.e., sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, etc.), this information should help you identify some key targets in each tier.

LINEBACKERS TIER 1: ELITE LB1

• Darius Leonard, IND (* big play bonus)
• Leighton Vander Esch, DAL
• Deion Jones, ATL
• Cory Littleton, LAR (* big play bonus)
• Tremaine Edmunds, BUF
• Bobby Wagner, SEA
• Blake Martinez, GB (* big play bonus)
• Luke Kuechly, CAR
• Roquan Smith, CHI (* big play bonus)
• C.J. Mosley, NYJ

These are core pieces for any fantasy roster with IDPs and the type of players you can build a championship team with. They are all going to play just about every snap for their respective teams and have a proven history of production in the league. There is a compelling case to break out Darius Leonard into his own tier at the top considering the huge rookie season he had with 160+ combined tackles and 7 sacks but expect some regression. He’s joined in this tier by several other 2nd-year pros in Leighton Vander Esch, Tremaine Edmunds, and Roquan Smith who look like the future at the position. Deion Jones missed 10 games with a foot injury last year but he should return to form as the young centerpiece of the Falcons defense. Cory Littleton enjoyed a breakout season with the Rams last year and will join Blake Martinez as two of the elite all-around players who were not taken with high draft picks. Bobby Wagner and Luke Kuechly have been at the top of the game for a long time and both seem headed for the Hall of Fame eventually, although Kuechly carries some added risk due to his concussion history. Lastly, C.J. Mosley was the prize of this year’s free-agent crop and should see significantly more tackle opportunities with the Jets than he did in Baltimore.

LINEBACKERS TIER 2: LOW-END LB1/HIGH-END LB2

• Jaylon Smith, DAL (* big play bonus)
• Joe Schobert, CLE
• Myles Jack, JAX
• Lavonte David, TB (* big play bonus)
• Devin White, TB
• Kwon Alexander, SF
• Jordan Hicks, ARI
• Christian Kirksey, CLE
• Zach Cunningham, HOU
• Alec Ogletree, NYG (* big play bonus)
• Devin Bush, PIT
• Kiko Alonso, MIA
• Jayon Brown, TEN (* big play bonus)

This group includes several players with elite potential, including the top two rookies from this year’s draft class, but they all carry slightly more risk that warrants a slight drop in value. Jaylon Smith has improved considerably against the pass to become an excellent 3-down linebacker but also has to compete with Vander Esch for tackle opportunities. Joe Schobert and Christian Kirksey will both look to rebound from an injury-plagued season in 2018 and return to their top-10 form of 2017. Myles Jack hasn’t played up to his potential thus far but has a great opportunity now that Tevin Smith is sitting the year out. Lavonte David seemed to take a step back in his production with the arrival of Kwon Alexander, so there’s a chance a more talented player in rookie Devin White will limit his upside. Meanwhile, Alexander will try to reclaim his LB1 status in San Francisco after several injury-shortened years. Fellow free-agent signee Jordan Hicks also has durability concerns but figures to see a lot more snaps and tackle opportunities with the move to Arizona. Zach Cunningham and Jayon Brown are young players who are still ascending while Alec Ogletree and Kiko Alonso are a pair of veterans on bad teams likely to remain among the top fantasy options for at least one more year.

LINEBACKERS TIER 3: SOLID LB2

• Nick Vigil, CIN
• Anthony Hitchens, KC
• Fred Warner, SF
• Demario Davis, NO (* big play bonus)
• Todd Davis, DEN
• Danny Trevathan, CHI
• Patrick Onwuasor, BAL
• Jarrad Davis, DET
• Haason Reddick, ARI
• Zach Brown, PHI
• Jerome Baker, MIA (* big play bonus)
• Eric Kendricks, MIN
• Shaun Dion Hamilton, WAS
• Shaq Thompson, CAR
• Preston Brown, CIN

This group includes some talented linebackers who will post some high-scoring weeks but lack the consistent upside of the players ranked above them. Nick Vigil (and Preston Brown) figure to see a significant boost in production now that Vontaze Burfict has moved on. The Chiefs are switching to a 4-3 defense but Hitchens remains the only linebacker likely to play a 3-down role. Despite coming off a promising rookie season, Fred Warner now has some added competition with Kwon Alexander playing alongside him. Demario Davis, Todd Davis, and Patrick Onwuasor are not exciting options but all are 3-down linebackers with a good chance to top 100 combined tackles. Danny Trevathan and Eric Kendricks are both very good all-around linebackers who get limited opportunities due to the elite defenses they play on. Jarrad Davis is very good against the run but needs to improve his cover skills to become a full-time player. Haason Reddick, Jerome Baker, and Shaun Dion-Hamilton all have breakout potential due to their expected role and opportunity on bad teams. Zach Brown has a proven track record but doesn’t even have a guaranteed starting job for the Eagles right now. Shaq Thompson will finally escape from the shadow of Thomas Davis but hasn’t taken advantage of previous opportunities.

LINEBACKERS TIER 4: LB3 OPTIONS

• Tahir Whitehead, OAK
• Vontaze Burfict, OAK
• Khalil Mack, CHI (* big play bonus)
• Kyle Van Noy, NE (* big play bonus)
• Benardrick McKinney, HOU
• Matt Milano, BUF
• K.J. Wright, SEA
• Rashaan Evans, TEN
• T.J. Watt, PIT (* big play bonus)
• Bradley Chubb, DEN (* big play bonus)
• Von Miller, DEN (* big play bonus)
• Nigel Bradham, PHI
• Quincy Williams, JAX
• Josey Jewell, DEN

This group of players carries a bit more risk and consists of players whose production from week-to-week will be heavily influenced by their matchup. Tahir Whitehead has been highly consistent and productive in recent years but could take a step back due to the arrival of the mercurial Vontaze Burfict. Inexperienced IDP league players may be surprised to see some of the best defensive players in the league in Khalil Mack and Von Miller in a tier this low, but that’s just a nature of them being grouped among linebackers rather than defensive ends/edge rushers, and you can include T.J. Watt and Bradley Chubb in the same group. Kyle Van Noy has been the only reliable Patriots linebacker for years, yet he still hasn’t been any more than a good LB3. Matt Milano is a solid young every-down linebacker, while Quincy Williams is a rookie who steps into a great situation as the likely replacement for Telvin Smith Sr. Rashaan Evans is a former 1st round pick who needs to overtake Wesley Woodyard to reach his potential while Josey Jewell is a young player who should replace Brandon Marshall in the middle of the Broncos defense. K.J. Wright and Nigel Bradham are both reliable veterans who have high floors but limited upside.

LINEBACKERS TIER 5: TOP BACKUPS WITH UPSIDE

• Anthony Walker, IND
• Alex Anzalone, NO
• Chris Board, BAL
• DeVondre Campbell, ATL
• Kyzir White, LAC
• Chandler Jones, ARI (* big play bonus)
• Jadeveon Clowney, HOU (* big play bonus)
• Genard Avery, CLE (* big play bonus)

This group highlights some of the top players left who you may want to target for bench spots on your team since they have some clear potential to outperform expectations. Anthony Walker, Alex Anzalone, and De’Vondre Campbell are far from the top linebacker options on their respective teams but they are currently projected for a 3-down role. Chris Board has the early momentum over Kenny Young in Baltimore to replace C.J. Mosley at inside linebacker, while Kyzir White also looks like he could be the new middle linebacker for the Chargers. Chandler Jones and Jadeveon Clowney are two of the top edge rushers in the league but their low tackle numbers push them down a tier from the elite 3-4 outside linebackers.

LINEBACKERS TIER 6A: TACKLE-HEAVY BACKUPS

• Wesley Woodyard, TEN
• Jatavis Brown, LAC
• Denzel Perryman, LAC
• Thomas Davis, LAC
• Raekwon McMillan, MIA
• Kenny Young, BAL
• Brandon Marshall, OAK
• Sean Lee, DAL
• Vince Williams, PIT
• Reggie Ragland, KC

It certainly looks like many of these players are past their primes, but they may still have something left to give. Wesley Woodyard is expected to give way to Rashaan Evans but could stick as part of a 3-man ILB rotation. Jatavis Brown and Denzel Perryman have had their moments but Brown is injury-prone and Perryman is a liability in coverage, which could provide an opening for 36-year old Thomas Davis. Raekwon McMillan appears limited to a 2-down role in Miami while Kenny Young needs to beat out Chris Board for a starting job in Baltimore. Brandon Marshall was often underwhelming during his time in Denver and figures to be the 3rd-best linebacker in Oakland. Sean Lee and Vince Williams have been very productive at times in their careers but seem likely to fade with the emergence of younger/better players.

LINEBACKERS TIER 6B: SACK-HEAVY BACKUPS

• Jamie Collins Sr NE
• Lorenzo Alexander, BUF
• Mario Addison, CAR (* big play bonus)
• Ryan Kerrigan, WAS (* big play bonus)
• Leonard Floyd, CHI (* big play bonus)
• Matt Judon, BAL (* big play bonus)
• Terrell Suggs, ARI (* big play bonus)
• Cameron Wake, TEN (* big play bonus)
• Dante Fowler Jr LAR (* big play bonus)

These players are primarily edge-rushers who derive most of their value from rushing the quarterback in passing situations so they will have added value in big-play scoring systems. Some exceptions are 4-3 strongside linebackers like Jamie Collins and Lorenzo Alexander, but they could have difficulty holding onto a 3-down role and finishing with much more than 50 solo tackles. The move to a 3-4 defense this year figures to hurt the fantasy value of former defensive ends in Mario Addison and Cameron Wake, while most of the other 3-4 outside linebackers here will have trouble reaching 40 solo tackles but could threaten for 8+ sacks.

LINEBACKERS TIER 7: DYNASTY STASHES

• Telvin Smith Sr, JAX
• Bobby Okereke, IND
• Josh Harvey-Clemons, WAS
• Foye Oluokun, ATL
• JaWhaun Bentley, NE
• Germaine Pratt, CIN
• Jahlani Tavai, DET
• Brian Burns, CAR (* big play bonus)
• Montez Sweat, WAS (* big play bonus)
• Rashan Gary, GB (* big play bonus)
• Tae Davis, NYG
• Blake Cashman, NYJ

There is an interesting mixture of players included here but many of them are rookies who could need some time to develop into full-time contributors. Telvin Smith Sr is the biggest name, but worth calling out since he expects to return in 2020 after taking a year off. Bobby Okereke, Jahlani Tavai, and Ja’Whaun Bentley could all be long-term answers at middle linebacker for their teams but still need to prove themselves. Other players like Tae Davis and Blake Cashman have some great opportunities available to them. Foye Oluokun seems like he could be headed back to a reserve role with the return of Deion Jones in Atlanta but played well as a fill-in last year so could be worth holding onto in case another opportunity opens up.

Good luck in your drafts. As always, feel free to contact me with any questions or comments.

Email: rudnicki@footballguys.com

Twitter: @a_rudnicki