One Reason You Want Leonard Fournette and Three Reasons You Don't

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One Reason to Prioritize Leonard Fournette in Your Draft…

If he’s feeling right, he’ll get all the usage he can handle. The Jaguars are a run-driven team, and they give Fournette the reins whenever they can. A full season should afford him plenty of opportunities to chase 350 touches.

…and Three Reasons Not to

He could continue to struggle for upside in a low-tiered offense. This Jacksonville attack doesn’t look poised to present Fournette with big-time volume or touchdown opportunity. That could keep his ceiling capped, even if his play is strong and efficient.

That said, he’s never been a very strong or efficient runner. For all of Fournette’s collegiate legend, he’s yet to be productive on a per-carry basis.

He’s anything but dependable. Fournette’s availability has been dinged for much of his two seasons by a handful of worrisome factors. Injuries have mounted, and there’s long been talk that the Jaguars aren’t enamored of him as a cornerstone.

The Good News…

When Projecting for Fantasy, Usage is King

It’s generally more practical to chase opportunity than efficiency. That is to say; it’s more shrewd to chase high-usage players than to rolling big dice on explosive upside. Efficiency rates can and do vary wildly, and any stretch of history will show that Player X’s 3.5 yards per carry from last year could easily wind up 4.5 this year (and vice versa). Usage is more projectable, and it saves fantasy players from having to take bold stances on Player X’s effectiveness.

And it’s by that measure that Fournette looks (theoretically) safe and bust-proof. The Jacksonville offense is a decisively run-first one, having churned out the league’s fourth-most rushes over the past two seasons. Whenever the Jaguars get their say, they’ll look to shorten games as much as possible, grinding with defense and dependable ball movement on offense. With their lack of passing-game talent, it’s clearly the smart play. If they’re going to have 2019 success, it will almost certainly come with strong rushing numbers.

And unlike some of his ADP peers, Fournette is just about the only game in town. Through 2 years, he’s taken on 68% of the team’s running back touches when healthy, a number that could even climb going forward. The depth chart behind him is uninspiring:

It seems clear the team is entering 2019 with Fournette as its lead dog. He proved last year he can function as a receiver (22 catches in 8 games), so he’ll anchor the offense in varying game scripts, and he won’t have to fight much for the opportunity.

…and the Bad

What Could that Usage Realistically Mean?

Most backs that project to 300+ touches are lead-pipe locks to be drafted as fantasy RB1s. A few, however, get left behind. While it always makes sense to chase usage, not every fantasy target carries the same upside for impactful volume. Some are mired in situations that just don’t lend themselves well to big, projectable numbers.

Fournette may sit in that very boat. This Jacksonville offense doesn’t project as one of the league’s 20-22 best, and it might not set up its lead runner to spin that usage into fantasy gold. Last season, the Jaguars finished 20th in offensive snaps and 31st in Scoreability Rate (percentage of drives resulting in a score), and their 2019 outlook isn’t much brighter.

Touchdowns, for example, may not be easy for Fournette to come by. He’s always found the end zone at a solid rate, but has relied heavily on goal-line usage to do so: 12 of his 14 career touchdowns have come from within 5 yards. Fournette is an effective bull-rusher near the goal line – his 52% success rate registers better than those of Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Derrick Henry. Still, in the absence of long, explosive runs (more on that later), he’ll need ample goal-line work to stay at those touchdown heights. And last year's Jaguars took just 26 snaps from inside the 5-yard line last year, seventh-fewest in football.

That’s certainly conceivable; removing Blake Bortles from this offense may well be addition by subtraction. But new starter Nick Foles doesn’t inspire much confidence, and this isn’t a passing attack that looks to pull safeties out of the box or feed Fournette touchdowns. Foles was a folk hero in Philadelphia over 2017 and 2018, if not a particularly effective passer, landing outside the top 20 in net and adjusted yards per attempt. If he can’t push the ball and extend drives much better than Bortles, then Fournette’s usage won’t be particularly impactful.

Fournette’s (Lack of) Efficiency: Where’s the Beef?

From youth ball through college, Fournette looked like the stuff of legend. As a high school senior, the No. 1 recruit posted 2,537 yards and 22 touchdowns from scrimmage. At LSU, the perennial Heisman hopeful posted a sophomore season for the ages (2,206 yards and 23 scores), then excelled in an injury-shortened junior year (141 yards per game). And at the 2017 NFL combine, he put up the sixth-best weight-adjusted speed score of the last five years, running a 4.51 40-yard dash at 240 pounds.

But there’s no getting around the fact that, as an NFL runner, Fournette hasn’t been very effective. For all of his LSU exploits and his dazzling combine, he has yet to show much game-breaking ability on this level. Over 21 regular-season appearances, Fournette has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, topping 4.0 in just 6 of those games. Only 13 of his 401 attempts have been breakaway runs (15 yards or more), the second-lowest rate among qualifiers over that span. (He’s actually recorded fewer such runs than the likes of Cam Newton, Isaiah Crowell, or Alex Collins – despite more attempts than any of them.)

Some of the blame can be placed on the Jaguars’ front line woes. Fournette ran behind an abysmal group as a 2017 rookie, then watched an improved version drop piece-by-piece to injury in 2018. Of course, it’s worth noting that Fournette struggled for efficiency even before top blockers Brandon Linder and Andrew Norwell went down. Both will return to the interior in 2019, and the Jaguars added road-grading right tackle Jawaan Taylor in the draft. Together, they make up 60% of the best front line Fournette has had as a pro, and they do offer hope for a turnaround.

Still, the question remains as to whether Fournette could even take full advantage of plus blocking. His first two seasons have pointed toward a low-impact runner who doesn’t pick up much more than what’s blocked for him. There’s always room for improvement for a 24-year-old, but little from Fournette’s first two seasons suggests he’s on the verge of a breakout. And in the meantime, lower-body injuries have piled up and hung around.

A Disappearing Act… then Another… and Another...

Through a pair of NFL seasons, Fournette has suited up for just 24 of 35 possible games (playoffs included). That’s come fresh off a final college season ravaged by a recurring ankle injury, one that kept him sidelined through LSU’s 2017 bowl. A quick tour through Fournette’s missed games shows, at best, a rash of troublesome lower-body injuries:

• 2014: no missed games
• 2015: no missed games
• 2016: ankle bruise (1 game) and aggravation (4 games)
• 2017: ankle sprain (1 game), team-imposed suspension for missing treatments (1 game), quad bruise (1 game)
• 2018: hamstring strain (2 games), then aggravation (4 games); league-imposed suspension for fighting (1 game); unspecified foot injury/possible rest (1 game)

Fournette has not only lost games to lower leg injuries; he’s also struggled to recover from them. Injuries will happen, and it’s generally unwise to expect an injury-ravaged player to keep finding himself ravaged. But it’s been frustrating to watch Fournette’s recoveries go so poorly, and there are fair questions about his health and conditioning habits. A near-weekly fixture in the Questionable column, Fournette still has the look of a shaky week-to-week RB1.

Mixed in with those injury absences, of course, have been a handful of disciplinary ones. Fournette’s discord with the Jaguars has long been an open secret, ever since he skipped treatments on his ankle as a rookie and found himself deactivated for a week. When he was shelved by the league last December for fighting, the team immediately voided all of his contract guarantees, a move Fournette challenged formally. He’s drawn the verbal ire of EVP Tom Coughlin, and his offseason arrest didn’t help matters. With or without effective play, Fournette seems to be on relatively thin ice under a famously hard-nosed Coughlin. Few players can be labeled a “suspension risk,” but it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see this sour relationship cost him more opportunity.

2019 Staff Projections

Other Viewpoints

Pro Football Focus’ Daniel Kelley is keeping his eye on the volume prize:

Fournette doesn’t have to be a monster on a per-touch basis if he’s dominating backfield touches, and with a backfield that includes Blue, Cunningham, Rawls, and Armstead as his primary competition for touches, there should be plenty of quantity — even more if his increased work in the passing game from 2018 continues.

Ian McCafferty is skeptical and cautions against leaning too heavily on a Fournette rebound:

Fournette is still being ranked as a top-15 RB, which is surprisingly high given his poor production in 2018. Even though Fournette looks healthy entering 2019, he has never finished a season averaging more than 3.9 yards per carry and could be more of a volume-dependent RB2 ahead of next season.

The Fantasy Footballers’ Ryan Weisse agrees – but notes that every player has an appropriate price tag:

Obviously, Leonard Fournette comes into 2019 a risky fantasy prospect, but there exists the possibility that he proves he is the RB1 we thought he was after his rookie year…just at a 2/3 round cheaper ADP.

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