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The Best Value in Fantasy

Kirk Cousins is the key to winning your league. If you’re an acolyte of the “late round quarterback” philosophy, no other quarterback better fits your draft plans in 2019. Entering his second season in Minnesota, Cousins is being drafted like a bottom-tier journeyman. Yet, he’s been a top-10 fantasy quarterback each of the last four seasons, and his entire supporting cast returns intact.

Reasons why Cousins is the top quarterback to target:

• One of three quarterbacks to post Top 10 performances in four consecutive seasons
• He’s coming off a career year
• His entire supporting cast returns intact
• The Vikings offensive coaching staff has improved this offseason markedly
• His ADP implies a low-end QB2, but his floor is a low-end QB1

A Fixture in the Top 10

Kirk Cousins has finished no worse than QB9 since becoming a full-time starter in 2015.

That’s an impressive feat on its own, but consider how many top-tier quarterbacks can’t claim the same? Tom Brady cannot. Aaron Rodgers can’t, either. Cam Newton doesn’t pass the test. Neither does Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford or Ben Roethlisberger. Only three quarterbacks have been top-10 performers in each of the last four seasons: Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and Cousins.

Consistency Amid Change

Cousins’ consistency is even more astounding when you consider the changes he’s dealt with since getting the job in Washington in 2015.

• 2015 – Played for Washington under Jay Gruden, with Sean McVay as offensive coordinator. Jordan Reed was the leading receiver, followed by Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, and DeSean Jackson. No one topped 1,000 receiving yards. Cousins finished QB9.
• 2016 – A relatively stable situation as Gruden and McVay were still in place, and the top four receivers were the same. Unlike 2015, Washington had a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Garcon and Jackson, while Crowder and Reed rounded out the top four. Cousins finished QB5.
• 2017 – Gruden remains the head coach, but Matt Cavanaugh replaced McVay. The receiving corps was gutted, as Crowder led the team with 789 yards. Ryan Grant, Vernon Davis, and running back Chris Thompson were Nos. 2 through 4 in the receiving pecking order. Hardly a murderer’s row. Cousins finished QB5 again.
• 2018 – Cousins signs a 3-year, $84 million contract with Minnesota that sets a record for guaranteed money. He’s in a new town, playing for a new head coach (Mike Zimmer) with a new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo. He has to learn an entirely new system and acclimate to new receivers. DeFilippo is fired in-season and replaced by Kevin Stefanski. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs both go over 1,000 yards while Kyle Rudolph is the only other Viking with more than 400 receiving yards. Amidst the turmoil, Cousins finished QB9.

How many other quarterbacks can deliver QB1 value over four years in spite of playing for two teams, two head coaches, four offensive coordinators, and four different lead receivers?

Last Year Was His Best

Cousins draft status would suggest he’s coming off a down year. Yet, by most metrics, it was his best yet.

• Career-high 425 completions
• Career-high 70.1% completion rate
• Second-highest 4,298 passing yards
• Career-high 30 touchdown passes
• Career-low 1.7% interception rate

The only metric that wasn’t at or near career bests was Cousins’ single rushing touchdown. He had 13 rushing scores in his first three years as a starter. While projecting four rushing touchdowns for any quarterback is risky, history says he’s more likely to get two or three than match last year’s single score.

His Supporting Cast Returns Intact, Except for the Offensive Line (Thankfully)

For the first time in his career, Cousins has the same supporting cast returning. Dalvin Cook remains the lead running back. Thielen and Diggs are still atop the receiving depth chart. Kyle Rudolph – who was rumored to be moving on – was signed to a new long-term contract. The only place where there’s change expected is the offensive line. And any change there is for the better.

• First-round rookie Garrett Bradbury is slotted at center
• Pat Elflein will move from center to left guard, his more natural position
• Second-year Brian O’Neill (who didn’t allow a sack in 11 starts) gets the full-time right tackle job
• Right guard will either be free agent Josh Kline or rookie Dru Samia

As many as four spots on the Vikings offensive line will be different for Week One. That’s great news for Cousins and the rest of Minnesota’s skill players.

So Why Is Cousins Being Drafted So Late?

In spite of all the apparent positives, Cousins is being drafted after Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Mitchell Trubisky, and Jared Goff. None of these quarterbacks have Cousins’ pedigree, nor are they in prolific offenses outside of Goff. So what’s driving the ADP disconnect between what Cousins has done in the league, versus what he’s projected to do by most this year?

THREE WEEKS.

After Minnesota fired DeFilippo and handed play-calling to Kevin Stefanski, things got conservative. Very, very conservative.

Overreacting to those three weeks is incomprehensible. Minnesota was in preservation mode by that point, having just fired their offensive coordinator. The team was 6-6-1 in spite of being preseason Super Bowl favorites. During the “Stefanski Era,” the team won their next two games but were manhandled by a Bears team in Week 17 riding momentum into the playoffs. It's clear head coach Mike Zimmer didn't want the team to throw the ball 66% of the time, but that doesn't mean the new recipe is going to be 50/50.

Since Minnesota went 2-1 in those final three games, the perception is they’ll be a balanced run-pass team in 2018. Don’t bet on it. Gary Kubiak was hired as a senior offensive assistant and will have a heavy role in game-planning, even though Stefanski will maintain play-calling duties. Kubiak has a long history of productive fantasy quarterbacks, from John Elway to Matt Schaub to Joe Flacco. Yes, Joe Flacco had his best season under Kubiak in 2014. Meanwhile, Kevin Stefanski has made it clear the team seeks balance, but won’t abandon their best assets. Let’s assume rational coaching – why would the Vikings downshift the roles of their four best offensive players in Cousins, Thielen, Diggs and Rudolph?

What’s more predictive, three weeks or four years?

Stats and Projections

Final Thoughts

In an era where everyone tries to wait on quarterback, the fantasy gods have smiled down on us and delivered Kirk Cousins unto our rosters. Cousins has been a top-9 (or better) fantasy quarterback every season he's been a starter, in spite of more volatility than most starters in the league. He's coming off arguably his best season, even though it was his first in Minnesota. To think he won't build more chemistry with Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph, and Dalvin Cook is illogical. To think he won't thrive behind a better offensive line makes no sense. To think the Vikings offense is going to turn into a turtle hiding in its shell because of a three-week sample at the end of last year belies what it takes to win in today's NFL. Minnesota isn't paying Cousins $84 million to be a caretaker. They're not paying two 1,000-yard Pro Bowl receivers to run decoy routes. They're not relying on Dalvin Cook to carry the ball 300 times after a torn ACL and three shoulder surgeries. Trust four years of data more than you trust three weeks. Kirk Cousins should be your primary target, several rounds earlier than ADP, if you're a late-round quarterback aficionado. He's going to win a lot of people a lot of leagues this year.

Other Viewpoints

ProFootballFocus' Jeff Ratcliffe also notes Cousins as a prime late-round target:

"Fantasy football is a fickle pursuit. Case in point: Cousins. The former Washington quarterback made his move to Minnesota and proceeded to put up his fourth-straight 4,000-yard season along with topping 30 touchdown passes for the first time in his career. But you wouldn’t know it from the widespread perspective that he was a fantasy disappointment."

The FantasyPros staff agrees Kirk Cousins is a steal at his current ADP:

"Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is one of those players that is drastically undervalued in fantasy football because of his shortcomings as an NFL quarterback. While those issues are a major problem for the Minnesota Vikings quest to be a Super Bowl winner, they do nothing to negatively impact Cousins’ value as a fantasy quarterback. Cousins is a very durable quarterback, having started 16 games each of the last four years."

Twitter: @FBGWood