JuJu Smith-Schuster: A WR1 By Any Measure

Photo: Imagn Images

The Floor and Ceiling are Both in Place

The main questions naysayers are asking about JuJu Smith-Schuster are:

• Can he thrive (or even survive) without Antonio Brown?
• Will Pittsburgh's offense still be good enough to support elite production?

This column will break down the following answers to those questions.

1. Smith-Schuster can be a true WR1 in the NFL. He's among the best age-adjusted receivers of all time. And good quarterback + sizable passing game role + NFL rules = production.
2. Pittsburgh's offense will still be a top-10 unit. Pittsburgh has finished 4th, 3rd, 7th, 3rd, 2nd in total yards over the past five seasons. Ben Roethlisberger is the engine of the team.
3. Volume leads to a high floor. Efficiency provides a high ceiling. As the WR1 in an offense that should be among the league's most pass-heavy teams, the sky is the limit.

He's Never Been a WR1; What Will He Do Against No. 1 Cornerbacks?

This question exists because Smith-Schuster hasn't been the top receiver on his team yet. But it can be overcome using three arguments.

They're Cute When They're That Age

Smith-Schuster won't turn 23 until two days before Pittsburgh's Week 12 game this season. Here are his career rankings in the main receiving categories among all sub-23-year-old receivers in NFL history:

• Receptions: 169 - 1st all-time
• Yards: 2,343 - 3rd all-time behind Randy Moss (2,726) and Josh Gordon (2,451)
• Touchdowns: 14 - 10th all-time

And let's keep in mind that Smith-Schuster has 10 more games to add to his totals before turning 23, so he should surpass Moss. Players who aren't capable of beating any coverage by any corner aren't this productive at such a tender age -- even as the WR2 on their team.

What Can You Do Without Brown?

It's a small sample size, but let's look at what Smith-Schuster has done in games without Brown.

* Brown started this game but only played 21 snaps due to injury.

It's a small sample size, but Smith-Schuster showed that he can be relied upon as a top target. And he was a rookie during this stretch.

Rules are Rules

In today's NFL, passing is king. It's easier now than ever, and it has proven to be the more efficient method of moving the ball. Teams must pass to survive.

No one passed more than Pittsburgh last season, with a whopping 689 attempts (43 per game). Even with inevitable regression on his attempts, Roethlisberger and his coaches know that the aerial attack is their best chance to move the ball and score points. And Smith-Schuster will be on the other end of more of those attempts than anyone else.

But Will Pittsburgh be Able to Support a WR1?

The team almost definitely will reduce its number of passing attempts in 2019. And the passing efficiency could take a hit as well. But those reductions don't make Smith-Schuster a bust candidate. Consider the following:

• Even if Pittsburgh reduces its passing attempts to the 75th percentile of last year's league-wide levels, they'll still throw 584 times.
• 15 players saw greater than 25% of their team's targets last year. 13 of them were wide receivers. Given the lack of depth and proven options around him, Smith-Schuster should see at least a quarter of the team's attempts.

Smith-Schuster's fantasy floor should not be a concern, but what about his ceiling?

Minimal Downside with a Path to Upside

Smith-Schuster's two career seasons are shown below.

The numbers to focus on are the volume (Tgts) and efficiency (FP/Tgt). The exercise below will show combinations of the following scenarios.

• Volume: No change from 2018, 10% above 2018, 20% above 2018
• Efficiency: 10% less efficient than 2018, 5% less efficient than 2018, same efficiency as 2018

These assumptions were made because it's unlikely that his target volume goes down in a season where he'll go from the second-most targeted player to the most targeted player. But he could be less efficient due to increased defensive attention.

The volume scenarios are listed across the top of the table; the efficiency scenarios are listed in the left column. For example, a 10% target increase and 5% efficiency decrease is shown in the middle cell (308.9 fantasy points, WR 3).

The positional finishes listed in the table show where the point totals would fall among the average seasonal fantasy points of the top-12 wide receivers over the last five seasons. The average WR1 over the past five seasons has finished with 344.4 PPR points; the average WR2 has finished with 331.0; the average WR3 has finished with 316.7; and so on.

An overall WR1 finish would mean a near-200 target season at the same points-per-target clip Smith-Schuster achieved in 2018. It's not the most likely result, but it isn't out of the question. Just as notable, realistic decreases in volume and efficiency still show a path to a top-eight finish. Below are three more scenarios, one for the detractors and two within the bounds of the chart above.

• -5% volume, -10% efficiency: 252.7 PPR points (WR11)
• +15% volume, -10% efficiency: 305.9 PPR points (WR5)
• +15% volume, -5% efficiency: 322.9 PPR points (WR3)

Projections

Here is what our world-class projectors think of Smith-Schuster this season.

Final Thoughts

Smith-Schuster is an excellent value at his average draft position. He should be attractive for fantasy managers who like to shoot for the moon with every pick and also for more conservative managers who strive to avoid busts with their early-round selections. He could reasonably be picked in the first round or as high as the second wide receiver off the board.

Other Thoughts From Around the Web

ProFootballFocus' Scott Barrett thinks that Smith-Schuster can put up numbers similar to Brown's. Scott also highlighted Roethlisberger's efficiency when targeting each of his top two wideouts last season.

"Over the past two seasons, Roethlisberger has actually been far more efficient when targeting Smith-Schuster (110.6 passer rating) than Brown (95.5)."

On the other side of things, Fanduel's Max Staley wrote in March that Smith-Schuster would be covered differently in 2019 than 2018, thus limiting his upside.

"Brown was double-teamed on 8.5 percent of his snaps last season, and he generally faced his opponent's top cornerback. With Brown gone, JuJu will likely face tougher competition, and he will almost certainly be double-teamed on more than 0.8 percent of his snaps."

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com

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