More Sleepy Than Sleeper
The fantasy world is obsessed with a pair of young, rushing quarterbacks – Lamar Jackson (Baltimore) and Kyler Murray (Arizona) – but seems less interested in Josh Allen, who also set the fantasy world on fire as a rookie thanks to his legs. Why is Allen being discounted while the other two are touted as potential league winners? And is the disparity justified?
The Bills’ second-year starter is coming off the board very late, with an ADP of QB22. At that price, very few fantasy managers are assuming Allen can improve on last year’s per-game stats. Yet, few quarterbacks are at their best as rookies. Also, the Bills front office did everything in its power to bolster Allen’s chances of success. They added considerable depth at receiver, reshaped the offensive line, and improved at running back and tight end. It’s feasible Allen could be on the field with as many as six new starters when the season gets underway.
The good news is prodigious rushing totals can make a not-so-good quarterback into a fantasy asset. The bad news is Allen’s rushing totals are hard to extrapolate as sustainable, and his passing numbers as a rookie leave much to be desired.
In leagues that don’t penalize harshly for turnovers, Allen is a viable QB2 target late in drafts because of his rushing abilities. But don’t overpay, and don’t mistakenly bucket him with Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson – they deserve to have higher price tags.
A Discouraging Passing Profile
NFL scouts were divided on Allen’s pedigree coming out of Wyoming. His supporters pointed toward his measurables and ability to improvise in spite of a terrible supporting cast. His critics noted low completion and touchdown rates in spite of playing against below-average competition. As a rookie, Allen’s passing performance lent more fuel to the critics’ fire.
- 11 starts
- 169 completions
- 320 attempts
- 52.8% completion rate
- 2,074 yards
- 10 touchdown passes (3.1% rate)
- 12 interceptions (3.8% rate)
- 4.37 adjusted net yards per attempt
No two NFL careers are the same, but a comparison of Allen’s rookie numbers against other rookie quarterbacks in the modern era hints at a low ceiling for Allen’s long-term value.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks with Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt < 4.5 and Interception Rate > 3%
| First | Last | Year | Tm | Gms | Cmps | Atts | Cmp% | PaYds | PaTDs | INTs | TD% | Int% | ANY/A | Career AV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt | Moore | 2007 | CAR | 3 | 63 | 111 | 56.8 | 730 | 3 | 5 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 4.49 | 19 |
| Tony | Banks | 1996 | STL | 13 | 192 | 368 | 52.2 | 2,544 | 15 | 15 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.48 | 42 |
| Heath | Shuler | 1994 | WAS | 8 | 120 | 265 | 45.3 | 1,658 | 10 | 12 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.46 | 6 |
| Gus | Frerotte | 1994 | WAS | 4 | 46 | 100 | 46.0 | 600 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.44 | 56 |
| Jake | Plummer | 1997 | ARI | 9 | 157 | 296 | 53.0 | 2,203 | 15 | 15 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.42 | 77 |
| Josh | Allen | 2018 | BUF | 11 | 169 | 320 | 52.8 | 2,074 | 10 | 12 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.37 | 6 |
| Kerry | Collins | 1995 | CAR | 13 | 214 | 433 | 49.4 | 2,717 | 14 | 19 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.36 | 81 |
| Cade | McNown | 1999 | CHI | 6 | 127 | 235 | 54.0 | 1,465 | 8 | 10 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.27 | 7 |
| Quincy | Carter | 2001 | DAL | 8 | 90 | 176 | 51.1 | 1,072 | 5 | 7 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 4.26 | 17 |
| Christian | Ponder | 2011 | MIN | 10 | 158 | 291 | 54.3 | 1,853 | 13 | 13 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.25 | 22 |
| Geno | Smith | 2013 | NYJ | 16 | 247 | 443 | 55.8 | 3,046 | 12 | 21 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.17 | 15 |
| Mark | Sanchez | 2009 | NYJ | 15 | 196 | 364 | 53.9 | 2,444 | 12 | 20 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.07 | 34 |
| Joey | Harrington | 2002 | DET | 12 | 215 | 429 | 50.1 | 2,294 | 12 | 16 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 3.98 | 30 |
| Tim | Couch | 1999 | CLE | 14 | 223 | 399 | 55.9 | 2,447 | 15 | 13 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.96 | 30 |
| Charlie | Frye | 2005 | CLE | 5 | 98 | 164 | 59.8 | 1,002 | 4 | 5 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.88 | 8 |
| Blake | Bortles | 2014 | JAX | 13 | 280 | 475 | 59.0 | 2,908 | 11 | 17 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 3.81 | 44 |
| Chad | Hutchinson | 2002 | DAL | 9 | 127 | 250 | 50.8 | 1,555 | 7 | 8 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.77 | 3 |
| Kyle | Boller | 2003 | BAL | 9 | 116 | 224 | 51.8 | 1,260 | 7 | 9 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.75 | 17 |
| Derek | Anderson | 2006 | CLE | 3 | 66 | 117 | 56.4 | 793 | 5 | 8 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 3.74 | 23 |
| Chris | Weinke | 2001 | CAR | 15 | 293 | 540 | 54.3 | 2,931 | 11 | 19 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.74 | 9 |
| Josh | Freeman | 2009 | TAM | 9 | 158 | 290 | 54.5 | 1,855 | 10 | 18 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 3.69 | 38 |
| DeShone | Kizer | 2017 | CLE | 15 | 255 | 476 | 53.6 | 2,894 | 11 | 22 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 3.69 | 6 |
| Matthew | Stafford | 2009 | DET | 10 | 201 | 377 | 53.3 | 2,267 | 13 | 20 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 3.64 | 91 |
| Josh | Rosen | 2018 | ARI | 13 | 217 | 393 | 55.2 | 2,278 | 11 | 14 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.53 | 2 |
| Craig | Whelihan | 1997 | SDG | 7 | 118 | 237 | 49.8 | 1,357 | 6 | 10 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.33 | 1 |
Matthew Stafford jumps out as the outlier on this list, and fantasy managers would be thrilled if Allen evolves into Stafford. But the other comps place Allen into the journeyman camp. Someone who could start for non-playoff teams, or carry the day when paired with an elite defense, but very little chance of breaking through as a must-start fantasy asset.
A Remarkable, but Unsustainable Rushing Profile
Tell me you saw Allen’s rookie rushing totals coming, and I’m calling you a liar. Josh Allen was a dual-threat quarterback at Wyoming, but he was purely a compiler on the ground. He rushed 234 times in his two seasons as a full-time starter, for just 727 yards. His 3.1 yards-per-rush average (on only ten carries per game) showed a quarterback who wasn’t afraid to scramble for a first down if the passing lanes weren’t there, but didn’t hint at the second coming of Michael Vick. Yet, as a rookie starter in Buffalo, Allen was pretty much Michael Vick on the ground.
- 12 games (11 starts)
- 89 rushes
- 631 yards rushing
- 7.1 yards per rush
- 8 rushing touchdowns
- 4 90+ yard rushing games
- 2 100+ yard rushing games
- 6 games with at least 1 rushing touchdown
- 111.1 rushing fantasy points
For context, Allen scored 10.1 fantasy rushing points per start last year, which ranks 4th best in modern NFL history.
Top 25 Per-Game Fantasy Rushing Quarterbacks (1994-2018)
| Rank | First | Last | Year | Tm | Gms | Rush | RuYds | YPR | TDs | Yds/Gm | Att/Gm | RushFPTs | FPTs/Gm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar | Jackson | 2018 | BAL | 7 | 147 | 695 | 4.7 | 5 | 99.3 | 21.0 | 99.5 | 14.2 | |
| 2 | Colin | Kaepernick | 2012 | SFO | 7 | 63 | 415 | 6.6 | 5 | 59.3 | 9.0 | 71.5 | 10.2 | |
| 3 | Michael | Vick | 2010 | PHI | 12 | 100 | 676 | 6.8 | 9 | 56.3 | 8.3 | 121.6 | 10.1 | |
| 4 | Josh | Allen | 2018 | BUF | 11 | 89 | 631 | 7.1 | 8 | 57.4 | 8.1 | 111.1 | 10.1 | |
| 5 | Cam | Newton | 2011 | CAR | 16 | 126 | 706 | 5.6 | 14 | 44.1 | 7.9 | 154.6 | 9.7 | |
| 6 | Tim | Tebow | 2011 | DEN | 11 | 122 | 660 | 5.4 | 6 | 60.0 | 11.1 | 102.0 | 9.3 | |
| 7 | Michael | Vick | 2002 | ATL | 15 | 113 | 777 | 6.9 | 8 | 51.8 | 7.5 | 125.7 | 8.4 | |
| 8 | Robert | Griffin | 2012 | WAS | 15 | 120 | 815 | 6.8 | 7 | 54.3 | 8.0 | 123.5 | 8.2 | |
| 9 | Donovan | McNabb | 2002 | PHI | 10 | 63 | 460 | 7.3 | 6 | 46.0 | 6.3 | 82.0 | 8.2 | |
| 10 | Kordell | Stewart | 2000 | PIT | 11 | 78 | 436 | 5.6 | 7 | 39.6 | 7.1 | 85.6 | 7.8 | |
| 11 | Terrelle | Pryor | 2013 | OAK | 9 | 83 | 576 | 6.9 | 2 | 64.0 | 9.2 | 69.6 | 7.7 | |
| 12 | Cam | Newton | 2015 | CAR | 16 | 132 | 636 | 4.8 | 10 | 39.8 | 8.3 | 123.6 | 7.7 | |
| 13 | Cam | Newton | 2012 | CAR | 16 | 127 | 741 | 5.8 | 8 | 46.3 | 7.9 | 122.1 | 7.6 | |
| 14 | Russell | Wilson | 2014 | SEA | 16 | 118 | 849 | 7.2 | 6 | 53.1 | 7.4 | 120.9 | 7.6 | |
| 15 | Daunte | Culpepper | 2002 | MIN | 16 | 106 | 609 | 5.8 | 10 | 38.1 | 6.6 | 120.9 | 7.6 | |
| 16 | Vince | Young | 2006 | TEN | 13 | 83 | 552 | 6.7 | 7 | 42.5 | 6.4 | 97.2 | 7.5 | |
| 17 | Michael | Vick | 2006 | ATL | 16 | 123 | 1039 | 8.5 | 2 | 64.9 | 7.7 | 115.9 | 7.2 | |
| 18 | Michael | Vick | 2004 | ATL | 15 | 120 | 902 | 7.5 | 3 | 60.1 | 8.0 | 108.2 | 7.2 | |
| 19 | Steve | McNair | 1997 | TEN | 16 | 101 | 674 | 6.7 | 8 | 42.1 | 6.3 | 115.4 | 7.2 | |
| 20 | Cam | Newton | 2017 | CAR | 16 | 139 | 754 | 5.4 | 6 | 47.1 | 8.7 | 111.4 | 7.0 | |
| 21 | Daunte | Culpepper | 2001 | MIN | 11 | 71 | 416 | 5.9 | 5 | 37.8 | 6.5 | 71.6 | 6.5 | |
| 22 | Michael | Vick | 2005 | ATL | 15 | 102 | 597 | 5.9 | 6 | 39.8 | 6.8 | 95.7 | 6.4 | |
| 23 | Tyrod | Taylor | 2016 | BUF | 15 | 95 | 580 | 6.1 | 6 | 38.7 | 6.3 | 94.0 | 6.3 | |
| 24 | Donovan | McNabb | 2000 | PHI | 16 | 86 | 629 | 7.3 | 6 | 39.3 | 5.4 | 98.9 | 6.2 | |
| 25 | Steve | McNair | 1998 | TEN | 16 | 77 | 559 | 7.3 | 4 | 34.9 | 4.8 | 79.9 | 5.0 |
While it’s exciting to think what these rushing totals could mean for fantasy purposes, particularly as an offset to the concerning (and mundane) passing totals, we also have to understand that what Allen did is the definition of an outlier. Five hundred thirty-four (534) quarterbacks have scored at least 200 fantasy points in a season, over the last 25 years. None of them were as reliant on the run game for fantasy value. None. Allen broke Tim Tebow’s record by scoring 45.8% of his fantasy points on the ground.
Rushing Stats as a Percentage of Total Fantasy Points (1994-2018)
| Rank | First | Last | Year | PaYds | PaTD | INT | RuYds | RuTD | TotFPTs | RuFPTs | %RuFPTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh | Allen | 2018 | 2074 | 10 | 12 | 631 | 8 | 242.8 | 111.1 | 45.8% |
| 2 | Tim | Tebow | 2011 | 1729 | 12 | 7 | 660 | 6 | 229.5 | 102.0 | 44.4% |
| 3 | Michael | Vick | 2004 | 2313 | 14 | 12 | 902 | 3 | 267.9 | 108.2 | 40.4% |
| 4 | Vince | Young | 2006 | 2199 | 12 | 13 | 552 | 7 | 242.2 | 97.2 | 40.1% |
| 5 | Kordell | Stewart | 2000 | 1860 | 11 | 8 | 436 | 7 | 214.6 | 85.6 | 39.9% |
| 6 | Steve | McNair | 1997 | 2665 | 14 | 13 | 674 | 8 | 291.7 | 115.4 | 39.6% |
| 7 | Michael | Vick | 2002 | 2936 | 16 | 8 | 777 | 8 | 331.3 | 125.7 | 37.9% |
| 8 | Michael | Vick | 2006 | 2474 | 20 | 13 | 1039 | 2 | 306.7 | 115.9 | 37.8% |
| 9 | Michael | Vick | 2005 | 2412 | 15 | 13 | 597 | 6 | 261.9 | 95.7 | 36.5% |
| 10 | Cam | Newton | 2011 | 4051 | 21 | 17 | 706 | 14 | 426.9 | 154.6 | 36.2% |
| 11 | Steve | McNair | 1999 | 2179 | 12 | 8 | 337 | 8 | 230.7 | 81.7 | 35.4% |
| 12 | Robert | Griffin | 2012 | 3211 | 20 | 5 | 833 | 7 | 360.9 | 125.3 | 34.7% |
| 13 | Michael | Vick | 2010 | 3018 | 21 | 6 | 676 | 9 | 350.5 | 121.6 | 34.7% |
| 14 | Kordell | Stewart | 1997 | 3020 | 21 | 17 | 476 | 11 | 331.6 | 113.6 | 34.3% |
| 15 | Daunte | Culpepper | 2002 | 3859 | 18 | 23 | 603 | 10 | 362.3 | 120.3 | 33.2% |
| 16 | Russell | Wilson | 2014 | 3475 | 20 | 7 | 849 | 6 | 369.4 | 120.9 | 32.7% |
| 17 | Cam | Newton | 2012 | 3869 | 19 | 12 | 741 | 8 | 380.2 | 122.1 | 32.1% |
| 18 | Cam | Newton | 2017 | 3302 | 22 | 16 | 754 | 6 | 348.5 | 111.4 | 32.0% |
| 19 | Donovan | McNabb | 2002 | 2289 | 17 | 6 | 460 | 6 | 258.5 | 82.0 | 31.7% |
| 20 | Mark | Brunell | 1995 | 2168 | 15 | 7 | 480 | 4 | 233.4 | 72.0 | 30.8% |
| 21 | Tyrod | Taylor | 2016 | 3023 | 17 | 6 | 580 | 6 | 307.2 | 94.0 | 30.6% |
| 22 | DeShone | Kizer | 2017 | 2894 | 11 | 22 | 419 | 5 | 238.6 | 71.9 | 30.1% |
| 23 | Kordell | Stewart | 2001 | 3109 | 14 | 11 | 537 | 5 | 284.2 | 83.7 | 29.5% |
| 24 | Donovan | McNabb | 2000 | 3365 | 21 | 13 | 629 | 6 | 338.2 | 98.9 | 29.2% |
| 25 | Daunte | Culpepper | 2001 | 2612 | 14 | 13 | 416 | 5 | 245.2 | 71.6 | 29.2% |
If you think Josh Allen is the next Michael Vick, draft him with confidence. If you don’t, caveat emptor.
Why Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray Are Better Risks
Let me be clear, I do not have confidence in Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray as long-term franchise quarterbacks. I wouldn’t be surprised if both disappointed fantasy managers this year (and beyond). However, if you’re going to roll the dice on a young, dual-threat quarterback – both Murray and Jackson are better bets than Allen.
College Stats for Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson
| Name | Gms | Cmps | Atts | Cm% | PaYds | AY/A | PaTD | INT | TD% | INT% | PassRat | Ru | RuYd | YPR | RuTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 27 | 365 | 649 | 56.2 | 5,066 | 7.7 | 44 | 21 | 6.8% | 3.2% | 137.7 | 237 | 767 | 3.2 | 12 |
| Kyler Murray | 29 | 350 | 519 | 67.4 | 5,406 | 11.1 | 50 | 14 | 9.6% | 2.7% | 181.3 | 207 | 1,478 | 7.1 | 13 |
| Lamar Jackson | 38 | 619 | 1086 | 57.0 | 9,043 | 8.5 | 69 | 27 | 6.4% | 2.5% | 142.9 | 655 | 4,132 | 6.3 | 50 |
- Why Jackson is a better bet – Jackson and Allen’s college passing numbers weren’t all the different. Jackson completed a slightly higher percentage (57%) and had a better per-attempt average (8.5 yards). And while Jackson had a lower touchdown rate (6.4%), he also had a much better interception rate (2.5%). And while Jackson and Allen’s college passing numbers be approximate, Jackson is light years better on the ground. He outgained Allen by 6x and scored 4x as many touchdowns. Finally, although Jackson was limited as a passer in his NFL debut, he did complete a higher percentage (58.2%) and throw 2x as many touchdowns to interceptions.
- Why Murray is a better bet – Murray has a ton of questions, most notably whether the Air Raid system can work in the NFL and if Murray has the size to handle the rigors of an NFL pass rush. But I would still prefer betting on him to Allen because he was massively better as a college passer. Murray was 10% more accurate (67.4%), more dynamic (11.1 yards per attempt), and productive (50 touchdowns against 14 interceptions). His passer rating (181.3) was among the nation’s best versus Allen’s (137.7), in spite of playing at Oklahoma against some of the best teams in college. Murray was always wildly better on the ground (7.1 yards per rush) than Allen.
How We Could Be Wrong
There’s a very small branch in the probability tree that makes Allen a home run fantasy asset. It entails his maintaining last year’s rushing output – if not the yards per carry at least the 8+ rushing touchdowns – while also improving markedly as a passer. As we’ve already shown, history is not kind to passers like Allen; a major improvement is not the baseline. But, it’s also not impossible and the to the Bills credit, the front office did a lot in the offseason to give Allen a fighting chance.
- Improved Receiving Corps – The Bills kept promising youngsters Zay Jones and Robert Foster, but added wily slot receiver Cole Beasley and on-again, off-again speedster John Brown. While none of these guys are All-Pros, there are opportunities to play 3WR and 4WR sets now, allowing Allen to find the open man without having to throw in tight spaces on short- and intermediate routes.
- Improved Tight End Corps – Buffalo signed Tyler Kroft in free agency and added Dawson Knox in the draft. Knox impressed in rookie camps and could push for a starting job.
- Improved Running Back Group – LeSean McCoy remains the starter (for now), but Buffalo added veterans Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon and drafted speedster Devin Singletary.
- Improved Offensive Line – The Bills dramatically improved at center with the addition of veteran Mitch Morse, and spent their second-round pick on Cody Ford, who will be given a chance to win the right tackle job.
If all of these additions coalesce into something special, Allen could shatter the expectations set after his rookie year. It’s not the most likely outcome, but we can’t rule it out. Blake Bortles was a top-10 fantasy quarterback for two years. Ryan Fitzpatrick had two QB1 seasons. Jake Plummer had three top-10 seasons.
Stats and Projections
| YEAR | Team Stats/Projectors | G | CMP | ATT | YD | TD | INT | RSH | YD | TD | FumL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Buffalo Bills | 12 | 169 | 320 | 2074 | 10 | 12 | 89 | 631 | 8 | 2 |
| 2019 | David Dodds | 15.9 | 297.0 | 485.0 | 3201 | 19.4 | 13.3 | 100.0 | 598 | 6.0 | 3.9 |
| 2019 | Bob Henry | 15.0 | 261.0 | 470.0 | 3130 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 105.0 | 680 | 9.0 | 4.0 |
| 2019 | Jason Wood | 16.0 | 290.0 | 500.0 | 3200 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 120.0 | 775 | 7.0 | 5.0 |
| 2019 | Maurile Tremblay | 16.0 | 289.0 | 495.0 | 3405 | 17.7 | 16.5 | 105.0 | 654 | 5.9 | 1.7 |
Final Thoughts
Josh Allen was electric, on the ground, as a rookie. If that's a sign of things to come, it's understandable to be excited about Allen particularly at his current ADP. But Allen wasn't that kind of runner in college, and it's rare for a quarterback to suddenly becoming a dynamic, open-field running threat when he wasn't as a collegian. So unless you think Allen can continue putting up Michael Vick-like numbers on the ground, you have to hope he takes a giant leap forward as a passer. Unfortunately, Allen's rookie passing numbers looked eerily similar to his college passing numbers; which weren't good. Allen's rookie passing totals compare prominently to a host of uninspiring NFL journeyman. If we're right about his rushing numbers being unsustainable and his passing skills being pedestrian, at best, it's hard to get excited about drafting Allen, even at his cheap price tag. The Bills' front office did yeoman's work improving every facet of the offense in the offseason and Allen will have every opportunity to grow. Don't count on Allen becoming something special, but don't completely write off the possibility, either. In deep leagues, Allen is worth a late-round flier as a QB2 provided your league doesn't heavily penalize turnovers. But don't confuse Allen's skill set and profile with that of Kyler Muray or Lamar Jackson. While they're risky, too, the potential for upside is built on a more solid foundation.
Other Viewpoints
4for4's Bennie Contrino thinks Allen is worth a flier:
"Even if Allen doesn’t improve greatly as a passer, he has those rushes as a nice base for fantasy points. Quarterbacks being able to rush adds another element to their fantasy performance. Excluding Allen, the top three quarterbacks in rushes per game were also all top nine quarterbacks on a fantasy point per game basis in 2018. Rushes per game is also statistically significant with fantasy points per game with a p-value less than .05 meaning that the two categories have a statistical relationship. The combination of Allen's running and new teammate in John Brown definitely should propel him to fantasy relevance in 2019. I’m not saying Josh Allen should be drafted as a top-10 quarterback, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he more than outplays his current ADP."
PFF's Jeff Ratcliffe agrees Allen is the riskiest of the young dual-purpose options:
"We can’t necessarily count on the touchdown productivity to stick, but Allen’s legs offer the appeal of a modern fantasy quarterback. While he isn’t the most consistent passers, he’s also displayed some major upside in that department. He’ll also have some veteran stability at wide receiver thanks to the Bills’ offseason addition of John Brown. Allen is perhaps the riskiest of this bunch, but there’s no denying his high fantasy ceiling."
