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An Explosion of Inexperienced Play-Callers

The NFL coaching carousel never stops spinning, and it’s not unusual for a quarter of teams to replace their head coaches, and as many as half the league’s coordinators turning over. Organizations are always looking for the next great hire, and gone are the days when play-callers were given years of mediocrity to build something special.

This offseason was an absolute bloodbath on the offensive side. More than half of the league will start the season with a different offensive coordinator versus a year ago.

New Offensive Coordinators, 2019 Season

* -- Stefanski was promoted to OC late last year

But the story goes much deeper, as some of those offensive coordinators won’t be calling plays. If we turn our attention to the league’s play-callers, including head coaches who plan to call their own plays, we find a bevy of inexperience.

Inexperienced NFL Play-Callers, 2019 Season

** -- DeFilippo was relieved of play-calling duties twice before, in Cleveland and Minnesota

* -- All of these coaches had part-time stints as play-callers for at least one season

• Five teams will have first-time NFL play-callers
• Six teams will have play-callers with a year or less experience
• Two teams will have play-callers with just two seasons of experience

That’s problematic for fantasy football managers. Inexperienced coaches leave us guessing about the offenses they inherit. We can’t draw on history to figure out run/pass tendencies, formation preferences, target share leanings, creativity, and overall effectiveness. Too often in those cases, we draw on a coach’s pedigree an extrapolate. But that’s not predictive, at all. Think of all the former Bill Belichick assistants who have struggled in lead roles. What about the litany of former Bill Walsh assistants who couldn’t make the West Coast offense as productive? And now we’re looking at a similar situation as Sean McVay assistants are being handed the keys to NFL franchises mainly on the hope McVay’s genius (and photographic memory) rubbed off on them in the coaches’ room.

Tiering the Uncertainty

• Tier 1 – Passed their first tests (fantasy managers can rest easy)
• Tier 2 – A gunslinger unto himself (the biggest risk, or the biggest reward)
• Tier 3 – A glimpse of success (short but promising stints with foundational pieces in place)
• Tier 4 – Small and risky sample (tread carefully in spite of the hype)
• Tier 5 – New blood, same system (promoted from within to run existing system)
• Tier 6 – Complete unknowns (your guess is as good as mine)
• Tier 7 – It’s been a struggle (big red flag)

Tier 1 – Passed their first tests (Fantasy managers can rest easy)

• Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears
• Randy Fichtner, Pittsburgh Steelers

Fantasy managers can feel good about these two coaches, in spite of their relative inexperience. Matt Nagy took over play-calling in Kansas City midway through the 2017 season, and then called his own plays last year as Chicago’s head coach. His offenses have finished 6th and 9th in points scored, and Nagy impressively turned Mitchell Trubisky into a capable signal caller after a disappointing rookie year. The Steelers took a big chance on Fichtner last year, opting to give him the reins over Todd Haley – who had delivered four straight top-10 seasons as the play-caller. Fichtner answered the call, as the Steelers finished 4th in yards and 6th in points in spite of dealing with the LeVeon Bell fiasco.

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Tier 2 – A Gunslinger Unto Himself (The biggest risk, or the biggest reward)

• Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals

Kliff Kingsbury is the ultimate wild card. He gets his own tier because of the unique nature of his pedigree. Although he has no NFL play-calling experience, he got the job in Arizona because of his years calling an aggressive version of the Air Raid offense in college, most notably Texas Tech. Although he was fired by Texas Tech last year, he landed the coveted USC coordinator job in a must-win season for head coach Clay Helton, before changing his mind to chase his NFL dreams. In Kingsbury, fantasy managers aren’t just trying to handicap the man, but also whether his system can work at the NFL level. A lot of industry analysts are expecting big things from Kingsbury and rookie Kyler Murray, but that’s born more from intellectual curiosity about the Air Raid than empirical results. Unlike many other hires, Kingsbury seems like a boom-or-bust outcome. It’ll either be an epic fail laughed about for years to come, or the first year of a revolution in the way modern offenses are built.

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Tier 3 – A Glimpse of Success (Short but promising stints with foundational pieces in place)

• Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns
• Kevin Stefanski, Minnesota Vikings

Both Kitchens and Stefanski enter their first training camps as play-callers, having started last year as positional coaches. Kitchens emerged from the wreckage of an awkward marriage between Hue Jackson and Todd Haley, and the Browns offense exploded under Kitchens’ watch. Under Kitchens, the Browns passing game went from 215 yards per game to 286 yards, the completion rate jumped from 56% to 68%, and the yards per attempt zoomed from 5.6 to 8.6. Kitchens’ play-calling earned him the head coaching role, and the Browns added Odell Beckham to an already impressive receiving corps. Expectations are understandably high in Cleveland. In Minnesota, Kevin Stefanski replaced John DiFilippo with three games left and also had enough success to be named the permanent offensive coordinator. Unlike Kitchens, Stefanski’s play-calling wasn’t particularly fantasy-friendly as he emphasized a ball-control, balanced offense. His situation is a bit more muddied because Minnesota also hired Gary Kubiak as a senior consultant. Kubiak’s reputation will loom large over Stefanski’s shoulder; and if he stumbles in his first full season, don’t be surprised to see play-calling duties taken away in favor of Kubiak.

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Tier 4 – Small and Risky Sample (Tread Carefully in spite of the hype)

• Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals
• Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
• Byron Leftwich, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This trio of young coaches are among the new hires the fantasy football community is most excited about. Both Zac Taylor and Matt LaFleur are chips off the vaunted Sean McVay coaching tree and were coveted head-coaching candidates. Leftwich is one of Bruce Arians’ proteges and will be calling plays for Arians this year in Tampa Bay. While fantasy managers expect positive outcomes from the trio, there’s more risk here than meets the eye.

All three have modest experience calling plays, but it’s a small sample size. LaFleur spent one season as Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator in Los Angeles (but didn’t call plays) before taking the coordinator job in Tennessee last year. His first stint as a play-caller left much to be desired. The Titans ranked 25th in yards and 27th in points scored, and Marcus Mariota was dreadful as the engine behind the 29th-ranked passing attack. LaFleur apologists will blame Mariota for the Titans’ troubles, but there’s no tangible reason to exonerate LaFleur. After all, just because LaFleur coached with Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay doesn’t mean he has their aptitude. Expectations are sky high for LaFleur because of the chance to work with Aaron Rodgers.

Zac Taylor also comes from the McVay coaching tree, where he served as the Rams quarterbacks coach. Some might forget Taylor called NFL plays back in 2015 for the Miami Dolphins. He was promoted to offensive coordinator for the final five games by head coach Mike Sherman (who is also Taylor’s father-in-law), and the results weren’t impressive. The Dolphins yards, yards-per-play, and points-per-game all went from bad to worse over the final five games. Unlike LaFleur, who called his own offense for an entire season, it’s difficult to condemn Taylor on a 5-game stint coaching an entirely different system than the one he’s planning to use in Cincinnati. But Taylor also has to deal with Andy Dalton, versus Aaron Rodgers or Jameis Winston.

Finally, Byron Leftwich gets a shot at piloting Bruce Arians’ wide-open, aggressive system in Tampa Bay. The former NFL starting quarterback got his first taste calling plays in Arizona last year after Mike McCoy was fired. The results were not encouraging. In nine games, Leftwich’ offense scored 15 points per game – a slight improvement from the 13 points under McCoy – but the passing attack made no improvements; it remained the league’s worst. Is it fair to judge Leftwich on last season? He stepped into the league’s worst situation midway and was merely trying to keep the team from imploding. Josh Rosen had one of the worst quarterback seasons in the modern era, and the entire coaching staff was tossed out after one season. Of the three in this tier, Leftwich may be the least worrisome because he’ll have the watchful eye of mentor Arians every step of the way.

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Tier 5 – New Blood, Same System (Promoted From Within to Run Existing System)

• Kellen Moore, Dallas Cowboys
• Arthur Smith, Tennessee Titans

Both Moore and Smith got promoted from within, but that’s where their commonality ends. In Moore’s case, the Cowboys are coming off a division title with lofty expectations. Moore, the quarterback coach last season, replaces Scott Linehan with a mandate to add explosiveness and creativity to an offense that was too predictable. Although the Cowboys ranked 22nd in points scored last year, expectations are higher after the mid-season acquisition of Amari Cooper. After Cooper joined the team, Dallas moved into the middle of the league, and Dak Prescott started playing like a Pro Bowler. Moore will be asked to unlock the potential of a unit that now boasts one of the best young skill position trios in the NFC: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and Amari Cooper.

Smith’ promotion feels more like settling, as the Titans lost Matt LaFleur after a season to the Green Bay Packers. Smith has been with the Titans since 2011 and shockingly survived four different head coaches. He was hired by Mike Munchak, kept on by Ken Whisenhunt, kept and promoted by Mike Mularkey, and once again retained and promoted by Mike Vrabel. It’s assumed Smith will maintain the same playbook, verbiage and general system implemented by LaFleur last year. That may be a smart move to avoid unnecessary turmoil, but the Titans were a bad offense last year (27th in points scored), so was maintaining the status quo the right decision? Or the easy one?

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Tier 6 – Complete Unknowns (Your Guess is as Good as Mine)

• Rich Scangarello, San Francisco 49ers
• Chad O’Shea, Miami Dolphins

Neither O’Shea nor Scangarello have called plays before, and both had bosses who were incredibly effective and micro-managers. O’Shea has been the receivers coach in New England for the past decade, and if there’s any coaching tree harder to decipher it’s Bill Belichick’s. No Patriots assistant has gone on to great success in other places. Even Josh McDaniels, who is back with New England and considered one of the best offensive minds in football, struggled away from Belichick. Assuming O’Shea will be a gifted play-caller goes against everything we’ve seen from other Patriots assistants. Scangarello was Kyle Shanahan’s quarterbacks coach in San Francisco, but his coaching career has been a series of weird job hops. He’s had thirteen jobs in twenty years and hasn’t lasted more than four years in any spot. He may be the next great offensive mind, but the only reason for optimism is his time with Kyle Shanahan – who is a gifted Xs and Os coach.

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Tier 7 – It’s Been a Struggle (Big Red Flag)

• John DeFilippo, Jacksonville Jaguars

DeFilippo is among the most experienced of this group of play-callers, but his resume is damning. He’s the only one of this group to lose his play-calling duties twice in-season. In 2015, as Mike Pettine’s offensive coordinator in Cleveland, DeFilippo guided the league’s 30th-ranked offense and lost his play-calling duties toward year-end. Last year, DeFilippo was supposed to have his redemption song in Minnesota, where the team was pegged as a preseason Super Bowl contender thanks to the Kirk Cousins signing. Sadly, DeFilippo lost his play-calling duties again after 13 games. Yet, somehow, he lands another job calling plays? It’s possible he’s been the victim of bad luck, but fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. And fantasy managers counting on big things in Jacksonville are looking to be thrice fooled.

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Twitter: @FBGWood