Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the 13th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
With the bye week gauntlet behind us, we can turn our attention to the pressing matter at hand: making the playoffs and winning a championship. If you find yourself in a position to do just that, now is the time to knuckle down, study the match-ups and have conviction with your decisions which, with any luck, will propel you to glory.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s match-ups.
|
Team
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||
|
Pressure
Applied |
QB Sacks
|
QB Hits
|
Drop Backs
Faced |
Pressure
Allowed |
QB Sacks
Allowed |
QB Hits
Allowed |
Drop
Backs |
|
|
2016 NFL Average
|
14.2%
|
2.18
|
5.37
|
37.8
|
14.2%
|
2.18
|
5.37
|
37.8
|
|
2017 NFL Average
|
15.1%
|
2.33
|
5.49
|
36.5
|
15%
|
2.33
|
5.49
|
36.5
|
|
2018 NFL Average
|
15%
|
2.5
|
5.56
|
37
|
15%
|
2.5
|
5.56
|
37
|
|
2019 NFL Average
|
15.1%
|
2.59
|
5.64
|
37.4
|
15.1%
|
2.59
|
5.64
|
37.4
|
|
Team
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||
|
Pressure
Applied |
QB Sacks
|
QB Hits
|
Drop Backs
Faced |
Pressure
Allowed |
QB Sacks
Allowed |
QB Hits
Allowed |
Drop
Backs |
|
|
Arizona
|
15%
|
2.6
|
6.1
|
40.6
|
10.7%
|
3.3
|
4.2
|
39.2
|
|
Atlanta
|
12.8%
|
1.6
|
4.5
|
35.6
|
17.5%
|
2.8
|
7.9
|
45.1
|
|
Baltimore
|
18.6%
|
2.3
|
7.1
|
38.1
|
12.1%
|
2.1
|
3.7
|
30.8
|
|
Buffalo
|
16%
|
3
|
5.9
|
36.8
|
15.2%
|
2.2
|
5.3
|
34.7
|
|
Carolina
|
16.3%
|
3.7
|
6.5
|
40.1
|
15%
|
3.4
|
6.1
|
40.6
|
|
Chicago
|
14.4%
|
2.4
|
5.5
|
38.5
|
13.8%
|
2.9
|
5.3
|
38.1
|
|
Cincinnati
|
13.1%
|
1.5
|
4
|
30.5
|
14.2%
|
3.6
|
6
|
42.3
|
|
Cleveland
|
15.6%
|
3.1
|
5.7
|
36.6
|
11.4%
|
2.5
|
4.2
|
36.8
|
|
Dallas
|
16.4%
|
2.2
|
6.1
|
37.1
|
14.2%
|
1.5
|
5.4
|
37.7
|
|
Denver
|
12.7%
|
2.3
|
4.4
|
34.5
|
15.1%
|
3.3
|
5.3
|
34.8
|
|
Detroit
|
11.5%
|
2.1
|
4.5
|
39.5
|
15.1%
|
2.6
|
5.8
|
38.6
|
|
Green Bay
|
16.5%
|
2.5
|
5.9
|
35.9
|
15.5%
|
2.5
|
5.8
|
37.5
|
|
Houston
|
13.3%
|
2.1
|
5.2
|
39
|
17.2%
|
3
|
6.2
|
36
|
|
Indianapolis
|
13.6%
|
2.4
|
5
|
36.6
|
16.4%
|
1.9
|
5.5
|
33.8
|
|
Jacksonville
|
17.7%
|
3.1
|
6.2
|
35
|
12.4%
|
2.5
|
4.9
|
39.7
|
|
Kansas City
|
14.8%
|
2.9
|
5.7
|
38.8
|
12.9%
|
1.7
|
5.1
|
39.5
|
|
LA Chargers
|
15.2%
|
2.3
|
4.7
|
31.2
|
15.2%
|
2.1
|
6.1
|
40
|
|
LA Rams
|
14.4%
|
2.9
|
5.6
|
39.2
|
13.3%
|
1.6
|
5.2
|
39.1
|
|
Miami
|
12.4%
|
1.3
|
4.1
|
33
|
21.7%
|
4.2
|
8.8
|
40.6
|
|
Minnesota
|
16.2%
|
2.8
|
6.5
|
40.5
|
13.5%
|
2
|
4.2
|
31.1
|
|
New England
|
19%
|
3.4
|
7
|
36.9
|
12.5%
|
1.7
|
5.3
|
42.2
|
|
New Orleans
|
15.6%
|
3.2
|
6.3
|
40.2
|
10.8%
|
1.5
|
4.2
|
38.6
|
|
NY Giants
|
15.5%
|
2.4
|
5.4
|
34.5
|
19%
|
3.2
|
7.9
|
41.5
|
|
NY Jets
|
16.3%
|
2.4
|
6.5
|
39.6
|
21%
|
3.8
|
7.4
|
35
|
|
Oakland
|
11.5%
|
2.4
|
4.2
|
36.4
|
9.1%
|
1.5
|
3
|
33
|
|
Philadelphia
|
17.9%
|
2.8
|
6.7
|
37.5
|
16.4%
|
2.5
|
6.3
|
38.4
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
19.7%
|
3.5
|
7.5
|
37.8
|
12.4%
|
1.6
|
4.4
|
35.3
|
|
San Francisco
|
17.9%
|
4
|
6.1
|
34
|
15.6%
|
2
|
5.1
|
32.7
|
|
Seattle
|
10.4%
|
2.1
|
4.4
|
41.8
|
19%
|
3
|
6.6
|
35
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
14.5%
|
2.5
|
6.5
|
44.5
|
16.8%
|
3.3
|
7.2
|
42.7
|
|
Tennessee
|
13.7%
|
2.7
|
5.6
|
41
|
19.9%
|
3.9
|
6.5
|
32.5
|
|
Washington
|
15.1%
|
2.6
|
5.2
|
34.3
|
18.4%
|
3.2
|
6
|
32.6
|
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
New England pass rushers vs. Houston offensive line
No matter how you slice it, the Patriots are undeniably one of the best defenses we have seen this decade, and maybe ever. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, the unit ranks behind only the 2002 Bucs and the 1991 Eagles for the best defensive performance through 11 games (1985-present). Their coverage units get plenty of positive press – and rightly so – but their pass rush is formidable as well, averaging pressure on 19.0% of dropbacks. For context, the league average sits at 15.2%. The coverage and pressure units work in tandem, as they do with all good defenses, to produce a unit that averages 3.4 sacks and 7.0 quarterback hits per game.
Discipline will be important for this unit in a Sunday Night Football tilt against the Texans, a team capable of causing problems in the back end with their array of weapons. The problem for Houston, of course, is how much pressure their offensive line has given up: 17.2% on average through the first 11 games. At times, the talents of Deshaun Watson are rendered moot by elite pass rushes capable of disrupting the timing. The Patriots will have a solid game plan to contain Watson and create havoc, so they profile as one of the best options for pass-rushing upside this week.
Key stat: The Texans have allowed pressure on 14.5% of dropbacks at home.
Jacksonville pass rushers vs. Tampa Bay
You can have a dominant defensive front on paper, but if your offense can’t score points and that same defense is hemorrhaging yardage at an alarming per-carry clip on the ground, you have absolutely no chance to rush the passer. The old cliché in the league is that you must earn the right to get after the quarterback, a mantra the Jacksonville players might be taping to their lockers this week for the visit of Tampa Bay. The Jaguars pass rush has tended to come alive at home this season, applying pressure at a rate of 21.7% compared to 13.8% on the road.
Tampa Bay’s offensive line, combined with the skittish nature of Jameis Winston, should provide a good platform for the Jags. Giving up pressure on 16.8% of dropbacks to go along with 3.3 sacks and 7.2 hits, this line is ripe for the picking in a game that the Jaguars desperately need to lift the fanbase and ward off any Shahid Khan thoughts of blowing the whole thing up.
Key stat: Tampa Bay’s offensive line has allowed 7.2 quarterback hits per game and Winston averages 42.7 dropbacks per game, 5.3 more than the league average.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Oakland pass rushers at Kansas City
As enchanting a story as the Raiders have been this season, they remain a few sandwiches short of a picnic as far as their talent base. Maxx Crosby has been a pleasant surprise along the defensive line, but their back seven is full of holes and can be exploited. Clelin Ferrell, the top five pick in this year’s NFL Draft, has not adjusted quickly to the pro game. All in all, this pass-rushing unit is not one to be fearful of, especially for the Chiefs, whose offensive line is intact again after some injuries.
Oakland’s defense averages pressure on just 11.5% of dropbacks, while the Chiefs have allowed pressure on only 12.9% of dropbacks, with just 1.7 sacks per game. The last meeting between these teams saw Patrick Mahomes II rip Oakland’s defensive backfield to shreds, allowing Kansas City to run out the clock and keep the pass rush at bay. This is a huge game for Oakland to keep their playoff hopes alive, but the script may be a familiar one as the clock ticks down.
Key stat: The Raiders apply pressure on a measly 8.2% of opponent dropbacks when they are on the road compared to 14.0% at home.
|
Season
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||||
|
Tackle
Opportunity |
Rush Atts
Faced |
Drop Backs
Faced |
Offensive
Snaps Faced |
Rush
Percentage |
Tackle Opps
Allowed |
Rush
Attempts |
Drop
Backs |
Offensive
Snaps |
Rush
Percentage |
|
|
2016 NFL Average
|
50
|
25.3
|
37.8
|
63.1
|
40.1%
|
50
|
25.3
|
37.8
|
63.1
|
40.1%
|
|
2017 NFL Average
|
49.6
|
26.1
|
36.5
|
62.6
|
41.9%
|
49.7
|
26.1
|
36.5
|
62.6
|
41.7%
|
|
2018 NFL Average
|
50
|
25.1
|
37
|
62.2
|
40.5%
|
50.1
|
25.1
|
37
|
62.2
|
40.5%
|
|
2019 NFL Average
|
50
|
25.2
|
37.4
|
62.7
|
40.2%
|
50.4
|
25.2
|
37.4
|
62.5
|
40.2%
|
|
Season
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||||
|
Tackle
Opportunity |
Rush Atts
Faced |
Drop Backs
Faced |
Offensive
Snaps Faced |
Rush
Percentage |
Tackle Opps
Allowed |
Rush
Attempts |
Drop
Backs |
Offensive
Snaps |
Rush
Percentage |
|
|
Arizona
|
56
|
26.4
|
40.6
|
66.9
|
39.3%
|
49.5
|
23
|
39.2
|
62.2
|
37%
|
|
Atlanta
|
51.8
|
26.9
|
35.6
|
63.6
|
43%
|
51.7
|
20.1
|
45.1
|
65.2
|
30.8%
|
|
Baltimore
|
43.7
|
19.7
|
38.1
|
58.7
|
34.1%
|
56.8
|
35.4
|
30.8
|
66.2
|
53.4%
|
|
Buffalo
|
46.7
|
23
|
36.8
|
61.5
|
38.4%
|
50.5
|
28.7
|
34.7
|
63.5
|
45.3%
|
|
Carolina
|
52.1
|
24.7
|
40.1
|
64.8
|
38.1%
|
50.5
|
24.6
|
40.6
|
65.3
|
37.7%
|
|
Chicago
|
51.5
|
25.3
|
38.5
|
63
|
39.7%
|
48.1
|
22.8
|
38.1
|
60.9
|
37.5%
|
|
Cincinnati
|
52.9
|
32.3
|
30.5
|
62.5
|
51.4%
|
47.1
|
21.2
|
42.3
|
63.5
|
33.4%
|
|
Cleveland
|
48.5
|
24.9
|
36.6
|
61.6
|
40.5%
|
48.2
|
25.1
|
36.8
|
61.9
|
40.5%
|
|
Dallas
|
48.5
|
24.1
|
37.1
|
60.5
|
39.4%
|
53.3
|
27.6
|
37.7
|
65.4
|
42.3%
|
|
Denver
|
50.8
|
27.5
|
34.5
|
60.6
|
44.3%
|
47.5
|
25
|
34.8
|
59.8
|
41.8%
|
|
Detroit
|
50.9
|
26.4
|
39.5
|
67.1
|
40%
|
51.5
|
26.2
|
38.6
|
64.8
|
40.4%
|
|
Green Bay
|
49.3
|
25.6
|
35.9
|
63.2
|
41.7%
|
48.5
|
23.4
|
37.5
|
60.8
|
38.4%
|
|
Houston
|
49.5
|
23.1
|
39
|
62
|
37.2%
|
52.5
|
26.9
|
36
|
62.9
|
42.8%
|
|
Indianapolis
|
47.7
|
21.9
|
36.6
|
58.8
|
37.4%
|
52.5
|
30.7
|
33.8
|
64.5
|
47.6%
|
|
Jacksonville
|
48.5
|
25.2
|
35
|
61.4
|
41.8%
|
50.4
|
24.6
|
39.7
|
64.4
|
38.3%
|
|
Kansas City
|
52.3
|
27.3
|
38.8
|
66.7
|
41.3%
|
47.6
|
21.1
|
39.5
|
60.5
|
34.8%
|
|
LA Chargers
|
48.5
|
25.9
|
31.2
|
57.3
|
45.4%
|
48.5
|
22
|
40
|
62
|
35.5%
|
|
LA Rams
|
53.5
|
27.9
|
39.2
|
67.4
|
41.6%
|
47.8
|
23.3
|
39.1
|
62.4
|
37.3%
|
|
Miami
|
52.5
|
30.7
|
33
|
63.7
|
48.2%
|
45.7
|
19.8
|
40.6
|
60.5
|
32.8%
|
|
Minnesota
|
50.4
|
23.1
|
40.5
|
64.5
|
36.3%
|
53
|
30.5
|
31.1
|
61.5
|
49.5%
|
|
New England
|
42.5
|
21.1
|
36.9
|
58.6
|
36.4%
|
53.2
|
26.3
|
42.2
|
68.5
|
38.4%
|
|
New Orleans
|
46.6
|
20.9
|
40.2
|
60.4
|
34.2%
|
51.9
|
23.6
|
38.6
|
62.3
|
38%
|
|
NY Giants
|
52.6
|
28.5
|
34.5
|
62.7
|
45.2%
|
48.2
|
21
|
41.5
|
62.5
|
33.6%
|
|
NY Jets
|
50.8
|
24.9
|
39.6
|
64.9
|
38.6%
|
45.7
|
22.1
|
35
|
57.1
|
38.7%
|
|
Oakland
|
48.6
|
24.5
|
36.4
|
60.7
|
40.2%
|
50.8
|
27.1
|
33
|
60.1
|
45.1%
|
|
Philadelphia
|
46.5
|
22.5
|
37.5
|
61.4
|
37.5%
|
52.6
|
27.7
|
38.4
|
66.1
|
42%
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
51.8
|
26.9
|
37.8
|
66.2
|
41.6%
|
45.5
|
23.2
|
35.3
|
58.5
|
39.7%
|
|
San Francisco
|
45.7
|
23.7
|
34
|
57
|
41.1%
|
55.5
|
32.3
|
32.7
|
65
|
49.7%
|
|
Seattle
|
49.5
|
21.9
|
41.8
|
63
|
34.4%
|
53.7
|
29.2
|
35
|
64.2
|
45.5%
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
51
|
21.8
|
44.5
|
64.6
|
32.9%
|
51.5
|
24.6
|
42.7
|
67.4
|
36.6%
|
|
Tennessee
|
52.2
|
25.1
|
41
|
64.9
|
38%
|
48.1
|
25.5
|
32.5
|
57.9
|
44%
|
|
Washington
|
56.4
|
31.5
|
34.3
|
65.1
|
47.9%
|
56.4
|
20.5
|
32.6
|
53.2
|
38.6%
|
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
New York Giants defenders vs. Green Bay
Stadium TVO rank: 2nd (1.248)
Green Bay’s offense has been far from a juggernaut as far as tackle opportunity, averaging just 48.5 opportunities per game. It is not an abysmal total by any means, but an offense with a steady ground game powered by Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, and a passing game led by Aaron Rodgers, would expect more. The cure awaits in New Jersey this week, however, with the Giants defense presenting as one of the more generous match-ups around.
The Giants have faced rushing plays on 45.2% of their defensive snaps, an indication of how poor their game scripts have been and how putrid they have been stopping the run. At the core of their offensive philosophy, the Packers want to be able to run the ball early and often, setting up other downfield opportunities. A bereft Giants defense will stand little chance of slowing the Pack down, so plug in your Big Blue defenders in a match-up with an excellent TVO number.
Key stat: The Giants have faced an average of 28.5 rushing attempts per game (average is 25.2).
Washington defenders at Carolina
Stadium TVO rank: 4th (1.226)
Christian McCaffrey could have a field day against a Washington defense that averages 31.5 rushing attempts faced per game. At 5-6, the Panthers are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, so Ron Rivera will be keen to make a statement with a huge home victory against a subpar opponent. The TVO factor is favorable to Washington’s defense, a unit that averages 56.4 tackle opportunities per game.
The game script here, if the Vegas line is to be trusted, would indicate that the Panthers should deliver a convincing beatdown to Washington. Assuming this is the case, the opportunity could be massive for the likes of Shaun Dion Hamilton, Jonathan Allen and the defensive backs. It may feel a little sickening to trust Washington players to deliver, but if you are stuck for a starter in your line-up you can’t go far wrong with this unit’s players.
Key stat: Carolina’s offense averages 65.3 snaps per game, above the league average of 62.5.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Detroit and Chicago defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 31st (1.062)
As you munch away on your Thanksgiving dinner, defensive football should be the furthest thing from your mind – and especially in this game. Detroit has the second-worst TVO factor in the league and neither offense should inspire you to trust any defenders in this game. Perhaps there are opportunities for big plays from a pass-rushing perspective, but tackle production would appear to be hard to come by.
Chicago’s offense cannot sustain drives and averages just 22.8 rushing attempts per game, while Detroit’s offense is without Matthew Stafford and hasn’t had much of an identity in the games he has missed. There is a possibility that Stafford’s replacement, Jeff Driskel, is unable to suit up due to injury; in that scenario, this game would have even less tackle production appeal than it previously did. The take-home message is this: chow down, enjoy your dinner and fade this match-up (from an IDP perspective) for your own good.
Key stat: The Bears offense has allowed just 44.6 tackle opportunities on average as the road team compared to 51 at home.
Arizona and Los Angeles Rams defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 1.100 (25th)
In what should be an interesting game, the smart play here is to look for better options for tackle production. As the key statistic below shows, Arizona’s offense has not leaned heavily on the run and, despite the high number of pass completions per game (23.2), the sustaining factor is lacking. The emergence of Kenyan Drake has certainly been a boon to the ground game, but he will find few holes to exploit against a quality Rams defense, especially after they were embarrassed by Lamar Jackson.
The Rams offense has really gone into its shell in recent weeks, turning from a state-of-the-art machine into a meek and unpredictable robot cowering in a corner. It will be fascinating to observe how Sean McVay chooses to attack a vulnerable Cardinals defense, but the likelihood is that the offense will not suddenly spark into life and overcome a poor TVO factor to make quality tackle production a reality. Fade this one.
Key stat: The Cardinals run the football on just 37.0% of their plays, below the average of 40.2%.
Best of luck with Week 13 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
