Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the 12th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
Depending on the league you are in, you could be close to glory or contemplating your offseason tee times. In fantasy football, competition is king. It is important, no matter where you rank in the standings, to remain humble, strive for your best possible line-up and aim for a championship (or play spoiler, if that’s your thing). Another season will have passed us by before we know it, so let’s finish strong.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.
|
Season
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||
|
Pressure
Applied |
QB Sacks
|
QB Hits
|
Drop Backs
Faced |
Pressure
Allowed |
QB Sacks
Allowed |
QB Hits
Allowed |
Drop
Backs |
|
|
2016 NFL Average
|
14.2%
|
2.18
|
5.37
|
37.8
|
14.2%
|
2.18
|
5.37
|
37.8
|
|
2017 NFL Average
|
15.1%
|
2.33
|
5.49
|
36.5
|
15%
|
2.33
|
5.49
|
36.5
|
|
2018 NFL Average
|
15%
|
2.5
|
5.56
|
37
|
15%
|
2.5
|
5.56
|
37
|
|
2019 NFL Average
|
14.9%
|
2.59
|
5.59
|
37.5
|
14.9%
|
2.59
|
5.59
|
37.5
|
|
Team
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||
|
Pressure
Applied |
QB Sacks
|
QB Hits
|
Drop Backs
Faced |
Pressure
Allowed |
QB Sacks
Allowed |
QB Hits
Allowed |
Drop
Backs |
|
|
Arizona
|
15%
|
2.6
|
6.1
|
40.6
|
10.7%
|
3.3
|
4.2
|
39.2
|
|
Atlanta
|
13.5%
|
1.8
|
4.9
|
36.4
|
17%
|
2.5
|
7.4
|
43.5
|
|
Baltimore
|
18.7%
|
2.3
|
7.1
|
38
|
10.5%
|
2
|
3.3
|
31.3
|
|
Buffalo
|
15.7%
|
2.9
|
5.9
|
37.6
|
15.4%
|
2.3
|
5.5
|
35.6
|
|
Carolina
|
17%
|
3.9
|
6.8
|
40
|
15%
|
3.3
|
6.1
|
40.7
|
|
Chicago
|
13.7%
|
2.5
|
5.3
|
38.6
|
14.1%
|
3
|
5.3
|
37.6
|
|
Cincinnati
|
12.5%
|
1.3
|
3.8
|
30.5
|
13.3%
|
3.6
|
5.8
|
43.5
|
|
Cleveland
|
15.8%
|
3
|
5.7
|
36
|
11.6%
|
2.6
|
4.3
|
37
|
|
Dallas
|
16.5%
|
2.2
|
6.1
|
36.9
|
14.1%
|
1.6
|
5.4
|
38.2
|
|
Denver
|
12.7%
|
2.4
|
4.5
|
35.3
|
14.7%
|
3.2
|
5.2
|
35.4
|
|
Detroit
|
11.2%
|
2
|
4.5
|
40.2
|
13%
|
2.3
|
5
|
38.6
|
|
Green Bay
|
15.9%
|
2.5
|
5.9
|
37.2
|
14.6%
|
2.3
|
5.4
|
37
|
|
Houston
|
13.2%
|
2.2
|
5.3
|
40.3
|
17.5%
|
3.2
|
6.4
|
36.5
|
|
Indianapolis
|
13.7%
|
2.5
|
5.1
|
37.2
|
16.5%
|
2
|
5.7
|
34.6
|
|
Jacksonville
|
18.3%
|
3.3
|
6.7
|
36.6
|
11.4%
|
2.4
|
4.4
|
38.6
|
|
Kansas City
|
14.8%
|
2.9
|
5.7
|
38.8
|
12.9%
|
1.7
|
5.1
|
39.5
|
|
LA Chargers
|
15.2%
|
2.3
|
4.7
|
31.2
|
15.2%
|
2.1
|
6.1
|
40
|
|
LA Rams
|
13.3%
|
2.9
|
5.4
|
40.5
|
12.8%
|
1.6
|
5
|
39.1
|
|
Miami
|
12.8%
|
1.3
|
4.2
|
32.8
|
22.5%
|
4.2
|
9.1
|
40.4
|
|
Minnesota
|
16.2%
|
2.8
|
6.5
|
40.5
|
13.5%
|
2
|
4.2
|
31.1
|
|
New England
|
19.3%
|
3.7
|
7.2
|
37.3
|
12.2%
|
1.7
|
5.2
|
42.5
|
|
New Orleans
|
15.7%
|
3.1
|
6.3
|
40.2
|
10.9%
|
1.5
|
4.2
|
38.4
|
|
NY Giants
|
16%
|
2.4
|
5.4
|
33.7
|
18.8%
|
3.4
|
7.9
|
42
|
|
NY Jets
|
16.2%
|
2.5
|
6.5
|
40.1
|
22.5%
|
4.1
|
8
|
35.5
|
|
Oakland
|
12.2%
|
2.5
|
4.5
|
37
|
8.2%
|
1.5
|
2.7
|
32.8
|
|
Philadelphia
|
16.8%
|
2.5
|
6.4
|
38.2
|
16%
|
2.5
|
6
|
37.4
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
19.2%
|
3.4
|
7.4
|
38.6
|
11.7%
|
1.5
|
4.2
|
35.8
|
|
San Francisco
|
17.2%
|
3.9
|
5.7
|
33.2
|
14.8%
|
1.9
|
5
|
33.7
|
|
Seattle
|
9.5%
|
2
|
3.9
|
41.2
|
17.8%
|
2.7
|
6.3
|
35.4
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
13.6%
|
2.2
|
5.8
|
42.8
|
17.6%
|
3.6
|
7.8
|
44.2
|
|
Tennessee
|
13%
|
2.7
|
5.2
|
40
|
20.7%
|
4.2
|
7
|
33.8
|
|
Washington
|
12.7%
|
2.3
|
4.3
|
33.8
|
18.7%
|
3.2
|
6.1
|
32.6
|
Strong Matchup
Weak Matchup
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
Philadelphia pass rushers vs. Seattle offensive line
It has been some time since a defense knocked the usually untouchable Tom Brady around like a rag doll, but that is exactly what the Eagles did last week. There came a point in the game where it appeared Brady, battered and bruised, was glad to throw the ball away and let his defense do the dirty work. Philadelphia’s pass rush stands out as a solid unit from a metrics standpoint – 6.4 quarterback hits per game, a pressure applied rate of 16.8% and 2.5 sacks per game. The match-up this week against a porous Seattle offensive line might just be the perfect platform the Eagles pass rush to augment those statistics a little bit.
As MVP-worthy as Russell Wilson has been, what many pundits don’t acknowledge is how efficient he has been despite a far below average offensive line. The discrepancy between home and road for Wilson’s pass protection is stark: in the cozy confines of the Pacific North-West, the line’s sack allowed percentage is just 4.8%, while on the road that number skyrockets to 10.7%. It is worth noting that the Seahawks only drop back to pass 35.4 times per game, below the average of 37.5, and hence give teams fewer chances to rush Wilson. The Vegas line – Philadelphia are narrow favorites – indicates a close game could be in store. It is clear that the Seahawks offensive line has some travel sickness, though, and Philadelphia’s pass rushers can take advantage.
Key stat: The Eagles have applied pressure on 21.5% of opponent dropbacks at home, compared to just 12.2% on the road.
Jacksonville pass rushers at Tennessee
The last meeting between these sides saw Marcus Mariota attacked from all sides by a voracious Jacksonville pass rush, the team totaling nine sacks with Calais Campbell netting three and rookie Josh Allen grabbing two of his own. The first port of call this week, assuming Mike Vrabel has reviewed that debacle, will be to protect the passer. The script calls for a heavy dose of Derrick Henry; after all, what better way to protect Ryan Tannehill than to take the football out of his hands entirely? Jacksonville’s run defense has been weak of late, but it is easier to scheme a stout run defense and one would assume they are being scolded constantly by coaches this week.
While the prevailing wisdom suggests Henry will run amok, the Jaguars could shore up their run defense and make this about Tannehill. If it plays out that way, expect Jacksonville’s defense to have its way. The unit averages pressure on 18.3% of dropbacks and 6.7 quarterback hits per game. The talent is there to turn this, if not into a nine-sack demolition, certainly a reminder that the AFC South is not done. Not yet, anyway. Plug in your Jaguars and root for that game script.
Key stat: Tennessee’s offensive line has allowed seven quarterback hits per game, above the league average of 5.59.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Carolina pass rushers at New Orleans
The omens are grim for Ron Rivera’s head coaching tenure in Carolina after new owner David Tepper voiced his frustration with the team’s ‘mediocrity’ this week. This game presents as an opportunity for Rivera to rally the troops and produce an upset of bitter division rival New Orleans, but the talent gap between these teams is wider than most think. Carolina still leads the league in sacks, 26 coming on the road compared to just 13 at home, but that pattern is likely to be stopped in its tracks this week against a New Orleans offensive line that affords opponents precious few opportunities.
The loss to Atlanta aside, the Saints offensive line has been nearly impenetrable for defensive fronts. Giving up pressure on just 10.9% of dropbacks (average 14.9%), Drew Brees’ quick release makes the line right even if they make mistakes. Vegas makes this game a 10-point result in the Saints’ favor, so the implication is that the game script will not lead to many pass-rushing opportunities for Carolina. The smart play here is to completely fade your Panthers.
Key stat: The Saints have allowed just 1.5 sacks per game, with the league average standing at 2.59.
|
Season
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||||
|
Tackle
Opportunity |
Rush Atts
Faced |
Drop Backs
Faced |
Offensive
Snaps Faced |
Rush
Percentage |
Tackle Opps
Allowed |
Rush
Attempts |
Drop
Backs |
Offensive
Snaps |
Rush
Percentage |
|
|
2016 NFL Average
|
50
|
25.3
|
37.8
|
63.1
|
40.1%
|
50
|
25.3
|
37.8
|
63.1
|
40.1%
|
|
2017 NFL Average
|
49.6
|
26.1
|
36.5
|
62.6
|
41.9%
|
49.7
|
26.1
|
36.5
|
62.6
|
41.7%
|
|
2018 NFL Average
|
50
|
25.1
|
37
|
62.2
|
40.5%
|
50.1
|
25.1
|
37
|
62.2
|
40.5%
|
|
2019 NFL Average
|
50.1
|
25.1
|
37.5
|
62.7
|
40%
|
50.5
|
25.1
|
37.5
|
62.6
|
40%
|
|
Team
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||||
|
Tackle
Opportunity |
Rush Atts
Faced |
Drop Backs
Faced |
Offensive
Snaps Faced |
Rush
Percentage |
Tackle Opps
Allowed |
Rush
Attempts |
Drop
Backs |
Offensive
Snaps |
Rush
Percentage |
|
|
Arizona
|
56
|
26.4
|
40.6
|
66.9
|
39.3%
|
49.5
|
23
|
39.2
|
62.2
|
37%
|
|
Atlanta
|
52.2
|
26.6
|
36.4
|
63.6
|
42.2%
|
51.6
|
20.2
|
43.5
|
63.7
|
31.7%
|
|
Baltimore
|
44.5
|
20.9
|
38
|
58.7
|
35.5%
|
56.1
|
34.4
|
31.3
|
65.7
|
52.4%
|
|
Buffalo
|
48.3
|
23.6
|
37.6
|
61.5
|
38.6%
|
49.3
|
27
|
35.6
|
62.6
|
43.1%
|
|
Carolina
|
52.3
|
25.4
|
40
|
64.8
|
38.8%
|
50
|
24.2
|
40.7
|
64.9
|
37.3%
|
|
Chicago
|
52.3
|
25.7
|
38.6
|
63
|
40%
|
47.9
|
22.8
|
37.6
|
60.4
|
37.7%
|
|
Cincinnati
|
53.1
|
32
|
30.5
|
62.5
|
51.2%
|
48.1
|
21.2
|
43.5
|
64.7
|
32.8%
|
|
Cleveland
|
48.9
|
25.4
|
36
|
61.6
|
41.4%
|
47.4
|
24.5
|
37
|
61.5
|
39.8%
|
|
Dallas
|
48.9
|
24
|
36.9
|
60.5
|
39.4%
|
54.1
|
27.8
|
38.2
|
66
|
42.1%
|
|
Denver
|
49.7
|
25.6
|
35.3
|
60.6
|
42%
|
49.1
|
25.8
|
35.4
|
61.2
|
42.2%
|
|
Detroit
|
52.2
|
26.8
|
40.2
|
67.1
|
40%
|
50.8
|
25.6
|
38.6
|
64.2
|
39.9%
|
|
Green Bay
|
50.3
|
26
|
37.2
|
63.2
|
41.1%
|
47.7
|
22.9
|
37
|
59.9
|
38.2%
|
|
Houston
|
48.9
|
21.5
|
40.3
|
62
|
34.8%
|
53.4
|
27.2
|
36.5
|
63.7
|
42.7%
|
|
Indianapolis
|
48.1
|
21.7
|
37.2
|
58.8
|
36.8%
|
52.2
|
29.9
|
34.6
|
64.5
|
46.4%
|
|
Jacksonville
|
49
|
24.8
|
36.6
|
61.4
|
40.4%
|
49.2
|
24.4
|
38.6
|
63
|
38.7%
|
|
Kansas City
|
52.3
|
27.3
|
38.8
|
66.7
|
41.3%
|
47.6
|
21.1
|
39.5
|
60.5
|
34.8%
|
|
LA Chargers
|
48.5
|
25.9
|
31.2
|
57.3
|
45.4%
|
48.5
|
22
|
40
|
62
|
35.5%
|
|
LA Rams
|
52.4
|
26.2
|
40.5
|
67.4
|
39.3%
|
49
|
24.8
|
39.1
|
63.9
|
38.8%
|
|
Miami
|
52.2
|
30.7
|
32.8
|
63.7
|
48.3%
|
45.8
|
19.8
|
40.4
|
60.2
|
32.9%
|
|
Minnesota
|
50.4
|
23.1
|
40.5
|
64.5
|
36.3%
|
53
|
30.5
|
31.1
|
61.5
|
49.5%
|
|
New England
|
42.3
|
20.6
|
37.3
|
58.6
|
35.6%
|
54.1
|
26.4
|
42.5
|
68.9
|
38.3%
|
|
New Orleans
|
45.7
|
20.1
|
40.2
|
60.4
|
33.3%
|
52.1
|
24.2
|
38.4
|
62.6
|
38.7%
|
|
NY Giants
|
52.9
|
29
|
33.7
|
62.7
|
46.3%
|
48.7
|
21
|
42
|
63
|
33.3%
|
|
NY Jets
|
51.7
|
25.2
|
40.1
|
64.9
|
38.6%
|
45.3
|
21.4
|
35.5
|
56.9
|
37.6%
|
|
Oakland
|
48.5
|
24
|
37
|
60.7
|
39.3%
|
51.7
|
27.6
|
32.8
|
60.4
|
45.7%
|
|
Philadelphia
|
46.8
|
22.3
|
38.2
|
61.4
|
36.9%
|
52
|
28.2
|
37.4
|
65.6
|
43%
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
53.3
|
27.5
|
38.6
|
66.2
|
41.6%
|
45
|
22
|
35.8
|
57.8
|
38.1%
|
|
San Francisco
|
44.7
|
23.3
|
33.2
|
57
|
41.2%
|
57.1
|
33.3
|
33.7
|
67
|
49.7%
|
|
Seattle
|
48.6
|
21.8
|
41.2
|
63
|
34.6%
|
54.7
|
29.6
|
35.4
|
65
|
45.5%
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
50.8
|
22.1
|
42.8
|
64.6
|
34.1%
|
51.9
|
24.1
|
44.2
|
68.3
|
35.3%
|
|
Tennessee
|
51.2
|
24.9
|
40
|
64.9
|
38.4%
|
48.5
|
25.1
|
33.8
|
58.9
|
42.6%
|
|
Washington
|
56.2
|
31.4
|
33.8
|
65.1
|
48.2%
|
56.2
|
20.4
|
32.6
|
53
|
38.5%
|
Strong Matchup
Weak Matchup
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
New England and Dallas defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 1st (1.253)
The blockbuster of Week 12 is also a tremendous spot for tackle production in the league’s best venue for tackle versus opportunity (TVO). While New England’s offense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders of late, this match-up against a feeble Dallas defense should be the panacea they need. The Patriots average 26 completions per game on offense, a statistic conducive to longer drives and ample tackle opportunity. Owners of Dallas defenders should be grinning from ear to ear.
The question is whether Dallas can return the favor if New England flexes their offensive muscle. If Dak Prescott can continue his hot streak and challenge the formidable Patriots defensive backs with his talented receiving corps, suddenly the New England defensive assets have great appeal. The consensus is that the home team will, as they generally do, get the job done. When you’re not chewing your popcorn watching this game, though, root for a close game – and a veritable tackle bonanza.
Key stat: New England and Dallas are both top six offenses in terms of tackle opportunity allowed, averaging 54.1 per game.
Houston and Indianapolis defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 6th (1.224)
The Texans return home after a humiliating loss at the hands of the Ravens, a game during which their pass protection was exposed, and even Deshaun Watson couldn’t get out of his own way. Houston’s offense is an excellent tackle match-up, averaging 27.2 rushing attempts per game and running the ball on 42.7% of their plays. They may revert to a ground and pound approach against their division rival to offset their sneakily effective pass rush and to settle things down on a short week.
The recipe for tackle production is there for the Colts if that game script plays out. As for Frank Reich’s team, their offense is all about the rushing attack. Running the ball on 46.4% of their plays, Indianapolis is only surpassed by the likes of Baltimore, San Francisco, and Minnesota. The TVO factor is very favorable here for a solid start to your IDP week on Thursday night, so plug in as many Texans and Colts as you can to take advantage of this plum spot.
Key stat: The Colts and Texans rank third and fourth, respectively, in solo tackles allowed with 44.3 and 43.6.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Chicago defenders vs. New York Giants
Stadium TVO rank: 32nd (1.057)
The Bears may be without Mitchell Trubisky with a hip injury this week, but Matt Nagy’s well-publicized sideline chat with the troubled signal-caller seemed to be something of a farewell, a bitter parting. Even if Chase Daniel gets the start, the Bears offense is not trustworthy – and especially not when Soldier Field is the worst venue in the league for tackles versus opportunity (TVO).
The stock of the Bears defenders as tackle producers is dealt another blow by the fact that rookie quarterback Daniel Jones will be facing them. The Jones-led offense averages just 21 rushing attempts per game and just 48.7 tackle opportunities per game allowed. The Giants are a clear fade as a defensive match-up, so this spot – and both sides – should be avoided if possible.
Key stat: The Chicago offense averages just 47.9 tackle opportunities allowed per game, with the league average at 50.5.
Cleveland defenders vs. Miami
Stadium TVO rank: 28th (1.090)
With the Browns turning the page after the incident that marred Thursday night’s game last week, much will be expected of their defense. Who will step up in Myles Garrett’s absence, for example? Ultimately, the Browns defense will likely see very little of the field this week against a Dolphins offense that ranks among the bottom three teams in terms of tackle opportunity allowed (45.8 per game). Ryan Fitzpatrick has instilled this roster with a fighting spirit, but it is not realistic to expect that trend to continue in a tough spot on the road.
The TVO factor is not something to latch on to either. The Browns offense should be able to have their way with Miami’s defensive journeymen with a punishing ground game mixed in with some precision shots downfield by Baker Mayfield. There is a scenario where Miami’s main defensive assets can meet a threshold of acceptable value, but it is not an outcome we should count on.
Key stat: Miami’s offense averages just 19.8 rushing attempts per game, not a number conducive to tackle production. The average number of rushing attempts league-wide is 25.3.
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Best of luck with Week 12 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
