Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the 10th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
It is time to switch your brain to playoff mode. Every line-up decision, every waiver wire acquisition and release, should be couched in the basic notion that the playoffs are coming; now all we must do is make sure we secure our seat at the table. Even if your team is on the outside looking in, do not fret; there are weeks left to claw back the deficit.
If you are in the box seat, reveling in the destruction all around you, don’t get complacent. Things can change quickly, after all. Humility and an honest assessment of our rosters will be crucial to get to the dance and win the top prize.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.
|
Season
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||
|
Pressure
Applied |
QB Sacks
|
QB Hits
|
Drop Backs
Faced |
Pressure
Allowed |
QB Sacks
Allowed |
QB Hits
Allowed |
Drop
Backs |
|
|
2016 NFL Average
|
14.2%
|
2.18
|
5.37
|
37.8
|
14.2%
|
2.18
|
5.37
|
37.8
|
|
2017 NFL Average
|
15.1%
|
2.33
|
5.49
|
36.5
|
15%
|
2.33
|
5.49
|
36.5
|
|
2018 NFL Average
|
15%
|
2.5
|
5.56
|
37
|
15%
|
2.5
|
5.56
|
37
|
|
2019 NFL Average
|
14.4%
|
2.53
|
5.34
|
37.1
|
14.4%
|
2.53
|
5.34
|
37.1
|
|
Team
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||
|
Pressure
Applied |
QB Sacks
|
QB Hits
|
Drop Backs
Faced |
Pressure
Allowed |
QB Sacks
Allowed |
QB Hits
Allowed |
Drop
Backs |
|
|
Arizona
|
14.4%
|
2.6
|
5.6
|
38.7
|
10.7%
|
3.3
|
4.1
|
38.6
|
|
Atlanta
|
10.9%
|
0.9
|
3.5
|
32.1
|
16.5%
|
2.6
|
7.5
|
45.5
|
|
Baltimore
|
17.7%
|
1.8
|
6.9
|
38.9
|
10.3%
|
2.3
|
3.4
|
32.8
|
|
Buffalo
|
14.4%
|
2.5
|
5.1
|
35.5
|
17.4%
|
2.8
|
6.1
|
35.1
|
|
Carolina
|
16.2%
|
4.3
|
6.8
|
41.8
|
13.7%
|
3.3
|
5.3
|
38.4
|
|
Chicago
|
13.7%
|
2.9
|
5.5
|
40
|
13.8%
|
2.8
|
5.1
|
37.3
|
|
Cincinnati
|
10.8%
|
1.1
|
3.4
|
31.3
|
12.5%
|
3.6
|
5.8
|
45.9
|
|
Cleveland
|
15.6%
|
3.1
|
5.3
|
33.8
|
12.1%
|
2.9
|
4.5
|
37.1
|
|
Dallas
|
15.6%
|
2.3
|
6
|
38.4
|
13.6%
|
1.8
|
4.9
|
35.9
|
|
Denver
|
12.8%
|
2.1
|
4.4
|
34.8
|
14.7%
|
3.3
|
5.1
|
34.7
|
|
Detroit
|
9.8%
|
1.8
|
4
|
40.9
|
11.7%
|
2.3
|
4.5
|
38.6
|
|
Green Bay
|
15.3%
|
2.4
|
5.6
|
36.2
|
14.5%
|
2.2
|
5.4
|
37.6
|
|
Houston
|
13.6%
|
2.3
|
5.7
|
41.7
|
16.5%
|
2.8
|
6
|
36.4
|
|
Indianapolis
|
13.6%
|
2.5
|
4.9
|
35.9
|
15.8%
|
2
|
5.5
|
34.9
|
|
Jacksonville
|
17.7%
|
3.3
|
6.7
|
37.7
|
11.6%
|
2.4
|
4.3
|
37.4
|
|
Kansas City
|
13.7%
|
2.9
|
5.3
|
38.9
|
13.5%
|
1.8
|
5.2
|
38.7
|
|
LA Chargers
|
15.2%
|
2.3
|
4.7
|
30.7
|
14.3%
|
1.8
|
5.6
|
38.9
|
|
LA Rams
|
13.1%
|
2.9
|
5.1
|
39.3
|
12.2%
|
1.5
|
5
|
40.9
|
|
Miami
|
13.3%
|
1.5
|
4.3
|
31.9
|
22.2%
|
4
|
8.8
|
39.5
|
|
Minnesota
|
16.1%
|
3.1
|
6.3
|
39.4
|
12.6%
|
1.8
|
3.8
|
29.9
|
|
New England
|
18.3%
|
3.6
|
6.7
|
36.4
|
12.2%
|
1.8
|
5.1
|
41.8
|
|
New Orleans
|
14.7%
|
3.5
|
5.8
|
39.1
|
9.5%
|
1
|
3.5
|
37
|
|
NY Giants
|
15.1%
|
2.4
|
5.1
|
33.9
|
18.4%
|
3.1
|
7.7
|
41.6
|
|
NY Jets
|
14.3%
|
1.6
|
5.6
|
39.3
|
23.4%
|
4.6
|
8.5
|
36.3
|
|
Oakland
|
9.7%
|
1.9
|
3.6
|
37.3
|
5.7%
|
1.1
|
1.9
|
32.8
|
|
Philadelphia
|
17.4%
|
2.7
|
6.4
|
37
|
14.6%
|
2.2
|
5.3
|
36.6
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
20.2%
|
3.6
|
7.8
|
38.4
|
8.6%
|
1
|
2.9
|
33.6
|
|
San Francisco
|
18%
|
3.8
|
5.8
|
32
|
13.8%
|
1.5
|
4.1
|
29.9
|
|
Seattle
|
8%
|
1.7
|
3.2
|
40.1
|
17.8%
|
2.4
|
6.2
|
35
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
14.5%
|
2.4
|
6.3
|
43.1
|
16.6%
|
3.8
|
7
|
42.1
|
|
Tennessee
|
13.8%
|
2.8
|
5.3
|
38.6
|
19.7%
|
4.2
|
6.9
|
35
|
|
Washington
|
12.8%
|
2.3
|
4.3
|
33.9
|
17.9%
|
2.9
|
5.7
|
31.7
|
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
Baltimore pass rushers at Cincinnati
The Bengals have seen enough of long-time starting quarterback Andy Dalton, so fresh-faced head coach Zac Taylor has pulled the trigger on rookie Ryan Finley. At 0-8, who can honestly hold it against them? Somewhat counterintuitively, the Bengals line has allowed pressure on just 12.5% of dropbacks despite dropping back 45.9 times per game. That is significantly above the league average dropbacks number of 37.1. Taylor will deploy a game plan to limit Finley’s involvement, but how realistic is that against such a formidable defense?
Baltimore’s pass rush has come to life in recent games, averaging pressure on 17.7% of opponent dropbacks. Laying a few well-timed licks on the great Tom Brady will have warmed them up nicely for this, a much more palatable test against a rookie passer. The Ravens average 6.9 quarterback hits per game, so expect a big game across the board with turnover upside for all their main IDP assets.
Key stat: The Bengals have allowed 3.6 sacks per game, a number certain to increase with rookie Ryan Finley starting.
San Francisco pass rushers vs. Seattle offensive line
The magic of Russell Wilson seems to have no limit as he continues, week after week, to pull improbable plays out of nowhere. The best trick the veteran quarterback has pulled, of course, is how effectively he has managed despite a poor offensive line. The Seahawks give up pressure on 17.8% of dropbacks and are facing one of the most formidable defensive front sevens in the league. Could this be the week the spell wears off?
The 49ers will like their chances, especially at home in front of a raucous crowd on Monday Night Football – as long as a black cat doesn’t spoil the fun. Football Outsiders has San Francisco as their number one overall team in DVOA and they have lived up to the billing, averaging pressure on 18.0% of opponent dropbacks. Nick Bosa has helped this unit to a league-leading sack percentage of 11.7, which shoots up to 12.9 at home. Advantage, 49ers. The Seahawks are in for a long day, particularly if they fall behind.
Key stat: Seattle has allowed 6.2 hits per game on Russell Wilson despite dropping back a below-average 35 times.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Los Angeles Rams pass rushers at Pittsburgh
The man behind center for the Steelers may not inspire diehard fans, but the offensive line should give them reason to smile. Pittsburgh’s front five behemoths have been a steadying force in their surge back to 4-4, with continuity and cohesion playing a massive part. In fact, they have surrendered just one sack per game and 2.9 hits, keeping Mason Rudolph clean for the most part.
The wrecking ball of Aaron Donald will not be an easy player to deal with, but this line seems to have the measure of their opponents, no matter how talented. The Rams defense is in flux, having applied pressure on a below-average 13.1% of dropbacks despite facing 39.3 dropbacks per game. The return to health of Clay Matthews should provide a boost to their overall pass rush, but this team needs a synergy of rush and coverage to truly dominate – and this is not the opponent to stop the rot against. There is big-play upside for the Rams defensive backs facing an error-prone Rudolph, but pass rush may be tough to come by.
Key stat: The Steelers allow pressure on a league-low 8.6% of dropbacks, though their average number of dropbacks is just 33.6.
|
Season
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||||
|
Tackle
Opportunity |
Rush Atts
Faced |
Drop Backs
Faced |
Offensive
Snaps Faced |
Rush
Percentage |
Tackle Opps
Allowed |
Rush
Attempts |
Drop
Backs |
Offensive
Snaps |
Rush
Percentage |
|
|
2016 NFL Average
|
50
|
25.3
|
37.8
|
63.1
|
40.1%
|
50
|
25.3
|
37.8
|
63.1
|
40.1%
|
|
2017 NFL Average
|
49.6
|
26.1
|
36.5
|
62.6
|
41.9%
|
49.7
|
26.1
|
36.5
|
62.6
|
41.7%
|
|
2018 NFL Average
|
50
|
25.1
|
37
|
62.2
|
40.5%
|
50.1
|
25.1
|
37
|
62.2
|
40.5%
|
|
2019 NFL Average
|
50.1
|
25.2
|
37.1
|
62.3
|
40.4%
|
50.6
|
25.2
|
37.1
|
62.3
|
40.4%
|
|
Team
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||||
|
Tackle
Opportunity |
Rush Atts
Faced |
Drop Backs
Faced |
Offensive
Snaps Faced |
Rush
Percentage |
Tackle Opps
Allowed |
Rush
Attempts |
Drop
Backs |
Offensive
Snaps |
Rush
Percentage |
|
|
Arizona
|
55.7
|
27.2
|
38.7
|
65.9
|
41.3%
|
49.3
|
23.4
|
38.6
|
62
|
37.8%
|
|
Atlanta
|
52.6
|
30
|
32.1
|
62.1
|
48.3%
|
51.5
|
18
|
45.5
|
63.5
|
28.3%
|
|
Baltimore
|
42.8
|
18.6
|
38.9
|
57.5
|
32.4%
|
57.9
|
35.8
|
32.8
|
68.5
|
52.2%
|
|
Buffalo
|
47.3
|
24.8
|
35.5
|
60.3
|
41.1%
|
49.5
|
27.1
|
35.1
|
62.3
|
43.6%
|
|
Carolina
|
53.5
|
25.4
|
41.8
|
67.1
|
37.8%
|
49.5
|
25.5
|
38.4
|
63.9
|
39.9%
|
|
Chicago
|
53
|
24.8
|
40
|
64.8
|
38.2%
|
47.8
|
22.5
|
37.3
|
59.8
|
37.7%
|
|
Cincinnati
|
53.9
|
33.4
|
31.3
|
64.6
|
51.6%
|
47.9
|
18.8
|
45.9
|
64.6
|
29%
|
|
Cleveland
|
50.4
|
27.3
|
33.8
|
61
|
44.7%
|
46.1
|
23.3
|
37.1
|
60.4
|
38.5%
|
|
Dallas
|
48
|
22.1
|
38.4
|
60.5
|
36.6%
|
54.9
|
29.4
|
35.9
|
65.3
|
45%
|
|
Denver
|
49.4
|
26.4
|
34.8
|
61.2
|
43.2%
|
48.7
|
25
|
34.7
|
59.7
|
41.9%
|
|
Detroit
|
53.3
|
27.9
|
40.9
|
68.8
|
40.5%
|
50.9
|
25.3
|
38.6
|
63.9
|
39.5%
|
|
Green Bay
|
49.9
|
26.3
|
36.2
|
62.6
|
42.1%
|
47.8
|
22.4
|
37.6
|
60
|
37.4%
|
|
Houston
|
48
|
19.9
|
41.7
|
61.6
|
32.3%
|
54.3
|
28
|
36.4
|
64.4
|
43.4%
|
|
Indianapolis
|
48.5
|
22.9
|
35.9
|
58.8
|
38.9%
|
52.9
|
29.6
|
34.9
|
64.5
|
45.9%
|
|
Jacksonville
|
48.7
|
23.8
|
37.7
|
61.4
|
38.7%
|
49.8
|
26.1
|
37.4
|
63.6
|
41.1%
|
|
Kansas City
|
53.7
|
28.3
|
38.9
|
67.2
|
42.1%
|
46.1
|
20.1
|
38.7
|
58.8
|
34.2%
|
|
LA Chargers
|
49.2
|
26.4
|
30.7
|
57.1
|
46.3%
|
48.1
|
21.4
|
38.9
|
60.3
|
35.5%
|
|
LA Rams
|
52.6
|
26.5
|
39.3
|
65.8
|
40.3%
|
49.8
|
24.1
|
40.9
|
65
|
37.1%
|
|
Miami
|
52.6
|
30.8
|
31.9
|
62.6
|
49.1%
|
44.6
|
20
|
39.5
|
59.5
|
33.6%
|
|
Minnesota
|
50
|
22.1
|
39.4
|
61.6
|
35.9%
|
52.3
|
31.2
|
29.9
|
61.1
|
51.1%
|
|
New England
|
41.9
|
20.6
|
36.4
|
57
|
36.1%
|
54.7
|
27
|
41.8
|
68.8
|
39.3%
|
|
New Orleans
|
45.3
|
19.9
|
39.1
|
59
|
33.7%
|
52
|
25.6
|
37
|
62.6
|
40.9%
|
|
NY Giants
|
53.3
|
29.1
|
33.9
|
63
|
46.2%
|
48.7
|
21.4
|
41.6
|
63
|
34%
|
|
NY Jets
|
52.9
|
26.9
|
39.3
|
66.1
|
40.6%
|
44
|
19.4
|
36.3
|
55.6
|
34.8%
|
|
Oakland
|
49.1
|
23.5
|
37.3
|
60.8
|
38.7%
|
51.6
|
28
|
32.8
|
60.8
|
46.1%
|
|
Philadelphia
|
46.6
|
22.4
|
37
|
59.4
|
37.8%
|
52.7
|
29
|
36.6
|
65.6
|
44.2%
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
54
|
27.3
|
38.4
|
65.6
|
41.5%
|
44.5
|
22.3
|
33.6
|
55.9
|
39.8%
|
|
San Francisco
|
41.4
|
21.8
|
32
|
53.8
|
40.5%
|
57.6
|
36
|
29.9
|
65.9
|
54.6%
|
|
Seattle
|
47.9
|
21.3
|
40.1
|
61.4
|
34.7%
|
53.8
|
29.1
|
35
|
64.1
|
45.4%
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
50.8
|
22.3
|
43.1
|
65.4
|
34%
|
52.4
|
25.9
|
42.1
|
68
|
38.1%
|
|
Tennessee
|
49.9
|
24.9
|
38.6
|
63.4
|
39.2%
|
49.1
|
25
|
35
|
60
|
41.7%
|
|
Washington
|
56.7
|
31.4
|
33.9
|
65.3
|
48.1%
|
56.7
|
20.4
|
31.7
|
52.1
|
39.2%
|
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
Tennessee and Kansas City defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 8th (1.206)
Most of the stadia with the best TVO numbers are unoccupied this week, so the tastiest match-up from a tackle opportunity and TVO perspective comes in Nashville, where the Titans welcome the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes II is likely to suit up, instantly increasing the appeal of the Tennessee defenders. That said, the Chiefs defense, despite a brave effort last week, is not a world-beating unit. Even Ryan Tannehill should be able to find holes to poke.
Interestingly, the Chiefs have averaged just 46.1 tackle opportunities allowed per game, not what you would expect from a Mahomes-led offense. When you dig into the numbers, even with Mahomes playing through the first few weeks the offense’s ability to generate tackle opportunities was capped by how little they possessed the ball. The totals of 39 and 30 tackle opportunities allowed in Weeks 5 and 6 (Colts and Texans, respectively) really stand out, though both games featured a strong ground game from the opponent that wiped out the Chiefs. Could the Titans and Derrick Henry pull the same stunt this week? Whatever way the game script unfolds, expect both teams to remain balanced and provide enough opportunity for both defensive teams to be viable.
Key stat: Kansas City’s defense faces 28.3 rushing attempts per game – and faces Derrick Henry this week.
Los Angeles Chargers and Oakland defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 11th (1.194)
It is hard not to be enamored by the Raiders and what they have put together this season despite the odds being against them. When you think about it, this is a quintessentially Raider thing to do. Jon Gruden appears to be reveling in the spoiler role, though it may not be long until this team is in playoff contention – and it starts this week against their division rival. The crowd should be rowdy and ready on Thursday night, though IDP owners will have plenty to cheer about as well. The Raiders, after all, boast a rush percentage of 46.1 and have consistently provided ample tackle opportunities for their opponents.
The Vegas line makes this a tight game, so neither team is likely to get out in front and take the air out of the ball. The Chargers are the less attractive match-up for tackle opportunity, as their offense averages just 22.1 rushing attempts per game. However, with Melvin Gordon seemingly back to himself, that could change for the better. Philip Rivers should be able to keep drives alive; the Raiders defense allows 23.8 completions per game, among the highest in the league. Expect plenty of production from both teams’ defensive assets.
Key stat: The Raiders offense averages 28 rushing attempts per game, with the league average standing at 25.2.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Cleveland and Buffalo defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 28th (1.088)
The Browns haven’t made for good watching this year, disappointing their legions of hopelessly optimistic fans and proving the doubters correct. The visit of Buffalo represents a last stand of sorts for a team desperately in need of a win. That was the case last week in Denver, of course, but a combination of red zone ineptitude and overall poor play at bad times doomed them. The TVO factor in Cleveland is among the worst in the league, so even if this descends in a barroom brawl type of game, it would be wise not to expect much.
Buffalo will likely be thrilled if Cleveland opts to get down in the mud with them. The play of Josh Allen has been improving ever so slightly, but not enough to hitch your wagon to his ability to make the offense viable and provide the Browns with tackle opportunity. The Bills offense has a rush percentage of 43.6, an encouraging sign, but the smart play here is to downgrade all defensive players from a tackle perspective.
Key stat: Cleveland’s offense averages just 46.1 tackles opportunities allowed per game, with the league average at 50.6.
New Orleans defenders vs. Atlanta
Stadium TVO rank: 24th (1.103)
The Big Easy is not so easy when it comes to tackle production. As one of the bottom-tier TVO stadiums in the league, it should be avoided whenever possible. One such example is this week as stumbling division rivals Atlanta come to town. Matt Ryan is likely to return for the Falcons but relying on the Falcons to author a game script to keep the Saints defense honest is a fool’s errand. The Falcons have run the ball an average of just 18 times per game this season, a far cry from the league average of 25.2.
This is much in line with what the Saints have faced on the ground, as the key stat below shows. Vegas has this game as a blowout in New Orleans’ favor, so if any tacklers are worth playing it is Atlanta’s. Even still, be wary of making such a move – the TVO factor here is a huge deterrent. Bench your Saints unless they have major pass rushing upside.
Key stat: New Orleans faces an average of just 19.9 rushing attempts per game.
Best of luck with Week 10 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
