Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the sixth edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
With five weeks of action in the books, we are starting to figure out the juicy match-ups – and the ones that will yield no joy whatsoever. Teams like the Browns, Titans, and Falcons are proving to be exploitable offenses, while defensive masterclasses from the likes of San Francisco, Carolina and Green Bay have made us stand up and take notice.
As the weeks pass by, the process becomes clearer and the line-up building follows suit. With that in mind, let’s get right into this week’s slate of games.
|
Season
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Pressure
Applied |
QB Sacks
|
QB Hits
|
Drop Backs
Faced |
Pressure
Allowed |
QB Sacks
Allowed |
QB Hits
Allowed |
Drop
Backs |
|
|
2016
|
14.2%
|
2.18
|
5.37
|
37.8
|
14.2%
|
2.18
|
5.37
|
37.8
|
|
2017
|
15.1%
|
2.33
|
5.49
|
36.5
|
15%
|
2.33
|
5.49
|
36.5
|
|
2018
|
15%
|
2.5
|
5.56
|
37
|
15%
|
2.5
|
5.56
|
37
|
|
2019
|
14.7%
|
2.54
|
5.53
|
37.6
|
14.7%
|
2.54
|
5.53
|
37.6
|
|
Team
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Pressure
Applied |
QB Sacks
|
QB Hits
|
Drop Backs
Faced |
Pressure
Allowed |
QB Sacks
Allowed |
QB Hits
Allowed |
Drop
Backs |
|
|
Arizona
|
12.4%
|
2.4
|
4.6
|
37.2
|
13.5%
|
4.2
|
6
|
44.4
|
|
Atlanta
|
13.7%
|
1
|
4.4
|
32
|
15.8%
|
2.4
|
7.4
|
46.8
|
|
Baltimore
|
17.8%
|
1.8
|
6.4
|
36
|
12%
|
3
|
4.4
|
36.6
|
|
Buffalo
|
13.3%
|
2.4
|
5.2
|
39
|
17.6%
|
2.8
|
6.8
|
38.6
|
|
Carolina
|
17.1%
|
4
|
7
|
41
|
11.9%
|
2.8
|
4.6
|
38.8
|
|
Chicago
|
13.5%
|
3.4
|
5.6
|
41.6
|
14.5%
|
2.6
|
5.2
|
35.8
|
|
Cincinnati
|
13.9%
|
1.2
|
4.2
|
30.2
|
12.9%
|
4
|
5.8
|
44.8
|
|
Cleveland
|
16.3%
|
3.2
|
5.6
|
34.4
|
13.9%
|
3.2
|
5
|
36
|
|
Dallas
|
15.2%
|
1.6
|
6
|
39.6
|
12.7%
|
2
|
4.6
|
36.2
|
|
Denver
|
9.5%
|
1
|
3.2
|
33.6
|
14.3%
|
2.8
|
5.2
|
36.4
|
|
Detroit
|
10.7%
|
2.3
|
4.8
|
44.3
|
13.5%
|
1.8
|
5
|
37
|
|
Green Bay
|
17.2%
|
3
|
6.6
|
38.4
|
12.6%
|
2
|
4.8
|
38
|
|
Houston
|
16.1%
|
3
|
7
|
43.4
|
19.7%
|
3.6
|
7
|
35.6
|
|
Indianapolis
|
14.5%
|
2.6
|
5.2
|
35.8
|
11.6%
|
1.2
|
4
|
34.6
|
|
Jacksonville
|
16.5%
|
3.2
|
6.2
|
37.6
|
13%
|
2.4
|
4.8
|
37
|
|
Kansas City
|
11.2%
|
2.2
|
4.2
|
37.6
|
12.8%
|
1.4
|
5.2
|
40.6
|
|
LA Chargers
|
17.7%
|
2.4
|
5.2
|
29.4
|
13.1%
|
2.2
|
5.4
|
41.2
|
|
LA Rams
|
10.9%
|
2.2
|
4
|
36.8
|
12.6%
|
1.6
|
5.8
|
46
|
|
Miami
|
9%
|
1.3
|
2.8
|
30.5
|
27.3%
|
4.5
|
10.5
|
38.5
|
|
Minnesota
|
16.5%
|
3
|
6.6
|
40
|
13.9%
|
2.2
|
3.8
|
27.4
|
|
New England
|
19.7%
|
4.8
|
8
|
40.6
|
12%
|
1.6
|
4.8
|
40
|
|
New Orleans
|
18.6%
|
4
|
7
|
37.6
|
9.7%
|
0.8
|
3.4
|
35
|
|
NY Giants
|
17.4%
|
2.6
|
5.8
|
33.4
|
15.8%
|
2.2
|
6.6
|
41.8
|
|
NY Jets
|
15.8%
|
1.5
|
6
|
38
|
29.4%
|
5.8
|
10.5
|
35.8
|
|
Oakland
|
10.5%
|
1.8
|
3.8
|
36.2
|
7.1%
|
1.6
|
2.4
|
33.8
|
|
Philadelphia
|
17.1%
|
2.6
|
7.2
|
42.2
|
14.4%
|
1.6
|
5.4
|
37.4
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
19.7%
|
3.8
|
7.4
|
37.6
|
7.4%
|
1
|
2.6
|
35
|
|
San Francisco
|
18.3%
|
3.3
|
6.5
|
35.5
|
12.7%
|
1
|
3.8
|
29.5
|
|
Seattle
|
8.9%
|
2
|
3.6
|
40.6
|
16.6%
|
2.6
|
5.6
|
33.8
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
13.5%
|
2.2
|
6.2
|
45.8
|
20.1%
|
3.6
|
7.4
|
36.8
|
|
Tennessee
|
14.6%
|
3.4
|
5.8
|
39.6
|
23.3%
|
4.4
|
7.6
|
32.6
|
|
Washington
|
12%
|
1.8
|
4.4
|
36.6
|
18%
|
3
|
7
|
38.8
|
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
Washington pass rushers at Miami
Could this be the perfect game to shake off the cobwebs for one of these teams? There may be no better opportunity in their schedule, but will the Redskins, without a head coach, rise up, or will Miami show some spirit after a bye week? Washington’s pass rush hasn’t been a good unit this year, averaging pressure on just 12% of opponent dropbacks. However, Miami’s offensive line has been so poor that even a subpar unit can exploit it.
Barring a coaching miracle over the bye week, the Dolphins line is unlikely to have transformed. This is a unit that has given up pressure on 27.3% of dropbacks and surrendered 4.5 sacks per game. A lot of this misfortune up front stems from an ability to establish a lead, forcing more pass attempts. The Vegas line on this game makes it a 3.5-point affair in the visitors’ favor, so it could be a close one. The Redskins defense has some talented players. Bank on them to make their presence felt.
Key stat: Miami’s offensive line has yielded 10.5 quarterback hits per game. The league average is 5.53.
Dallas pass rushers at New York Jets
The long-awaited return of Sam Darnold will be a boon for the Jets, who have been abject in his absence. The question becomes whether his presence alone can mitigate some of the dismal pressure numbers this offensive line has been giving up? The Jets line allows 10.5 quarterback hits per game and 5.8 sacks – not good reading for a quarterback returning from a serious ailment.
The Cowboys will be keen to put consecutive losses behind them by making this Jets line their personal plaything. Defensively, the Cowboys have yet to take flight; they have averaged just 1.6 sacks per game and have a league-average 15.2% figure in terms of pressure applied. The match-up is excellent here, however, so it is tough to look past them.
Key stat: The Jets have given up pressure on a league-high 29.4% of dropbacks.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Jacksonville pass rushers vs. New Orleans
Even as the road team, the Saints are a tough out in any week of the season for an opposing pass rush. New Orleans has one of the best offensive lines in the league, giving up pressure on just 9.7% of dropbacks. Teddy Bridgewater has expertly steered the ship in Drew Brees’ absence, with his quick release helping the protection. However, facing a Jacksonville defense filled with talented players will not be easy.
The Jaguars rank 8th in the league in terms of sack percentage (8.5%) and average 6.2 quarterback hits per game. Their pass rush has been decent, in other words, but not dominant. Their only hope to put a dent in the New Orleans line is to get the game script on their terms by establishing a lead and forcing Bridgewater into tougher throws. The trends say we shouldn’t count on that.
Key stat: The Saints’ stingy offensive line has given up just 0.8 sacks per game.
|
Season
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||||
|
Tackle
Opportunity |
Rush Atts
Faced |
Drop Backs
Faced |
Offensive
Snaps Faced |
Rush
Percentage |
Tackle Opps
Allowed |
Rush
Attempts |
Drop
Backs |
Offensive
Snaps |
Rush
Percentage |
|
|
2016
|
50
|
25.3
|
37.8
|
63.1
|
40.1%
|
50
|
25.3
|
37.8
|
63.1
|
40.1%
|
|
2017
|
49.6
|
26.1
|
36.5
|
62.6
|
41.9%
|
49.7
|
26.1
|
36.5
|
62.6
|
41.7%
|
|
2018
|
50
|
25.1
|
37
|
62.2
|
40.5%
|
50.1
|
25.1
|
37
|
62.2
|
40.5%
|
|
2019
|
50.3
|
24.9
|
37.6
|
62.5
|
39.9%
|
50.7
|
24.9
|
37.6
|
62.5
|
39.9%
|
|
Team
|
Team Defense
|
Team Offense
|
||||||||
|
Tackle
Opportunity |
Rush Atts
Faced |
Drop Backs
Faced |
Offensive
Snaps Faced |
Rush
Percentage |
Tackle Opps
Allowed |
Rush
Attempts |
Drop
Backs |
Offensive
Snaps |
Rush
Percentage |
|
|
Arizona
|
54.6
|
28.4
|
37.2
|
65.6
|
43.3%
|
52.6
|
23.2
|
44.4
|
67.6
|
34.3%
|
|
Atlanta
|
52.4
|
29.4
|
32
|
61.4
|
47.9%
|
51.2
|
17.6
|
46.8
|
64.4
|
27.3%
|
|
Baltimore
|
41.8
|
18.4
|
36
|
54.4
|
33.8%
|
60.4
|
35
|
36.6
|
71.6
|
48.9%
|
|
Buffalo
|
44.8
|
21.4
|
39
|
60.4
|
35.4%
|
52.6
|
27.6
|
38.6
|
66.2
|
41.7%
|
|
Carolina
|
53.8
|
26.6
|
41
|
67.6
|
39.3%
|
50
|
25.2
|
38.8
|
64
|
39.4%
|
|
Chicago
|
54.2
|
23.8
|
41.6
|
65.4
|
36.4%
|
48.8
|
23.6
|
35.8
|
59.4
|
39.7%
|
|
Cincinnati
|
53.2
|
31.6
|
30.2
|
61.8
|
51.1%
|
48.6
|
18.8
|
44.8
|
63.6
|
29.6%
|
|
Cleveland
|
51.8
|
27.6
|
34.4
|
62
|
44.5%
|
43.6
|
22.2
|
36
|
58.2
|
38.1%
|
|
Dallas
|
48.4
|
22
|
39.6
|
61.6
|
35.7%
|
52.8
|
27
|
36.2
|
63.2
|
42.7%
|
|
Denver
|
48.6
|
26.4
|
33.6
|
60
|
44%
|
51.4
|
26.2
|
36.4
|
62.6
|
41.9%
|
|
Detroit
|
51.3
|
25.8
|
44.3
|
70
|
36.8%
|
53.8
|
30
|
37
|
67
|
44.8%
|
|
Green Bay
|
50
|
26.4
|
38.4
|
64.8
|
40.7%
|
48.8
|
24.2
|
38
|
62.2
|
38.9%
|
|
Houston
|
52.8
|
21.4
|
43.4
|
64.8
|
33%
|
50.8
|
25.2
|
35.6
|
60.8
|
41.4%
|
|
Indianapolis
|
47.4
|
21.6
|
35.8
|
57.4
|
37.6%
|
53.4
|
30.6
|
34.6
|
65.2
|
46.9%
|
|
Jacksonville
|
48.6
|
24.4
|
37.6
|
62
|
39.4%
|
49.8
|
24.8
|
37
|
61.8
|
40.1%
|
|
Kansas City
|
53
|
29
|
37.6
|
66.6
|
43.5%
|
48.8
|
21.4
|
40.6
|
62
|
34.5%
|
|
LA Chargers
|
47.6
|
25.4
|
29.4
|
54.8
|
46.4%
|
51
|
22
|
41.2
|
63.2
|
34.8%
|
|
LA Rams
|
51.2
|
27.4
|
36.8
|
64.2
|
42.7%
|
51.4
|
21.8
|
46
|
67.8
|
32.2%
|
|
Miami
|
58.3
|
35.3
|
30.5
|
65.8
|
53.6%
|
39.3
|
17.3
|
38.5
|
55.8
|
30.9%
|
|
Minnesota
|
53
|
24.6
|
40
|
64.6
|
38.1%
|
49
|
29.6
|
27.4
|
57
|
51.9%
|
|
New England
|
42.2
|
18
|
40.6
|
58.6
|
30.7%
|
52.8
|
27
|
40
|
67
|
40.3%
|
|
New Orleans
|
49.2
|
23.6
|
37.6
|
61.2
|
38.6%
|
49.4
|
24.2
|
35
|
59.2
|
40.9%
|
|
NY Giants
|
51.8
|
28.4
|
33.4
|
61.8
|
46%
|
49.6
|
22.2
|
41.8
|
64
|
34.7%
|
|
NY Jets
|
48.3
|
24.3
|
38
|
62.3
|
39%
|
46.3
|
21
|
35.8
|
56.8
|
37%
|
|
Oakland
|
48
|
23.8
|
36.2
|
60
|
39.7%
|
52.2
|
27
|
33.8
|
60.8
|
44.4%
|
|
Philadelphia
|
46.2
|
18.8
|
42.2
|
61
|
30.8%
|
51
|
27.8
|
37.4
|
65.2
|
42.6%
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
58.6
|
31.4
|
37.6
|
69
|
45.5%
|
41
|
18.2
|
35
|
53.2
|
34.2%
|
|
San Francisco
|
41.5
|
21
|
35.5
|
56.5
|
37.2%
|
57.3
|
36.5
|
29.5
|
66
|
55.3%
|
|
Seattle
|
45.6
|
18.6
|
40.6
|
59.2
|
31.4%
|
54.8
|
29.4
|
33.8
|
63.2
|
46.5%
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
51.8
|
21.8
|
45.8
|
67.6
|
32.2%
|
51.4
|
27.4
|
36.8
|
64.2
|
42.7%
|
|
Tennessee
|
50.2
|
22.8
|
39.6
|
62.4
|
36.5%
|
49.2
|
27.4
|
32.6
|
60
|
45.7%
|
|
Washington
|
57.6
|
29.8
|
36.6
|
66.4
|
44.9%
|
57.6
|
17.4
|
38.8
|
56.2
|
31%
|
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
Cincinnati defenders at Baltimore
Baltimore’s home stat crew is only 18th in TVO factor, but it may not matter for the Bengals defenders in this game. Cincinnati’s defense has faced 31.6 rush attempts per game and a rush percentage of 51.1%. Enter the Ravens offense, a unit whose sole purpose is to run the ball down the opponent’s throat relentlessly. Batimore’s offense allows a staggering 60.4 tackle opportunities per game (league average is 50.7) due to their prolific ground game.
The Bengals will have their work cut out for them to slow the Ravens, meaning ample tackle opportunity awaits. If the Vegas line is to be relied upon as an accurate reflection of how this game might pan out, the 10.5-point favorite Baltimore should have their way and establish a nice lead. Baltimore’s average rush attempts stands at 35, but that could skyrocket in this clash. Plug in your Bengals players.
Key stat: Baltimore’s offense averages 35 rush attempts per game, with the average standing at 24.9.
New York Giants defenders at New England
The Giants defense is a work in progress, but its lack of progress has been overshadowed by the Daniel Jones Show on offense. It is unmistakable that the G-Men must invest in their defense at all three levels. The unit gives up 28.3 rush attempts per game, mainly due to the Giants trailing in most games. The script against the Patriots on a short week isn’t likely to deviate too far from this trend.
New England’s offense has been a predictably useful tackle match-up, boosted by the fact the home stat crew ranks second in TVO factor (1.259). The offense allows 52.8 tackle opportunities per game, and on a short week, one would assume that Bill Belichick will rely on his ground game to take them home, limiting the number of hits Tom Brady takes. A bounty of points is on offer for Giants defenders.
Key stat: The efficient Patriots offense averages 67 offensive snaps per game, with the average at 62.5.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Houston and Kansas City defenders
Though this game figures to be one of the highest-scoring of the week, the living may not be as easy for IDP purposes. The reason is the stingy home stat crew at Arrowhead Stadium which, as the key stat below shows, is not generous in doling out tackles and assists. The Chiefs offense hasn’t quite gotten off the ground yet with their rushing attack, averaging just 21.4 attempts per game. The injury to Patrick Mahomes II could make Andy Reid lean on that ground game a little bit more this week, but for defensive production, it may not matter that much.
The Texans offense for its part has allowed 50.8 tackle opportunities per game, which is just off the league average by 0.1. In other words, they are straight down the middle. In a game that could feature plenty of passing, tackle opportunities will be tough to come by. Fade this match-up if you can.
Key stat: The Chiefs’ home stat crew ranks 26th in TVO factor with a 1.111 number.
Philadelphia and Minnesota defenders
The Eagles and Vikings have been two of the topsy-turvier NFC teams this season, but it is undeniable that on their day they can put it up to any team. Minnesota’s 51.9% rush percentage is always a good indicator of tackle production for the other team, but the problem lies in the unfavorable TVO factor at US Bank Stadium. The Vikings are three-point favorites at home – and Dalvin Cook will get his – but the production will be depressed for Eagles defenders.
Philadelphia’s offense should fancy their chances against this vaunted Minnesota defense, littered with big names but exploitable in the right circumstances. Doug Pederson’s team is fond of running the ball like their opponents this week, averaging 27.8 rush attempts per game. In what could be a tight game decided by small margins, the usual advice would be to start your most reliable defenders and move on. However, the stat crew drawback is significant here.
Key stat: Minnesota’s home stat crew ranks 27th in TVO factor.
Best of luck with Week 6 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
