Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the fourth edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
The match-up picture is becoming clearer as we gather more data, allowing us to pinpoint the most and least exploitable opponents for optimal IDP line-ups. However, the NFL is difficult to tame. With multiple changing quarterback situations, each week is an exercise in re-evaluation, clarity, and conviction.
Make sure you have a clear picture in your mind of the ever-shifting landscape before you take your first steps out onto the lush fantasy plains.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s matchups.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
New York Giants pass rushers vs. Washington
As hard as Case Keenum may work from Sunday to Sunday to prepare for the week’s opponent, there is no quickfire remedy for a poor offensive line. Under siege against the Bears, Keenum was often pressured almost immediately off the snap and it had a downstream effect on his play. Trent Williams’ absence is being felt more acutely each week that goes by. The Washington offense, in general, hasn’t been all that productive, something the reinvigorated Giants will aim to exploit.
Daniel Jones’ presence has given this team a new life, and it is likely to have a knock-on benefit for the defense which, let’s be honest, has been carved up the past few weeks. The personnel certainly aren’t up to snuff, and the Giants brass has a lot of work to do in the offseason to build their talent, but this match-up at home presents as an ideal chance for production.
Key stat: Washington’s offense allowed pressure on 16.8% of dropbacks last year. The 2019 figure isn’t yet available, but this unit is ripe for the picking.
Baltimore pass rushers vs. Cleveland
The Browns’ hype train has slowed to a crawl and may even need a little tune-up and refueling before things can get back on track. Freddie Kitchens is under fire for questionable play-calling, Baker Mayfield is regressing to some old, undesirable on-field habits and the defense is just okay.
Baltimore’s pass rush performed well in Kansas City in spurts last week, giving Patrick Mahomes II fits in the early stages. The crew that Baltimore has to rush the passer may not feature many household names, but they have the talent and aggressive play-caller in Wink Martindale to exploit a Browns' offensive line that has been much maligned.
Key stat: The Browns offense ranks 28th in the league in points per game at 16.3.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Dallas pass rushers at New Orleans
The Cowboys defense must be enjoying themselves through the first three weeks. The line-up of the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins isn’t exactly a murderer’s row of opponents, providing Rod Marinelli’s unit a nice confidence boost. There are much bigger fish to fry in Week 4, however, with the visit to New Orleans, a team that boasts one of the best offensive lines in the league.
The Saints tend to blitz opponents when they play in the Superdome – and I mean offensively as well as defensively. Expect Sean Payton to offset the Dallas pass rush by pushing the tempo high and getting the ball out of Teddy Bridgewater’s hands quickly. The New Orleans line has more than enough in their arsenal to nullify Dallas’ pass rushers, so sit your Cowboys in this middling match-up.
Key stat: The Saints allowed pressure on just 9.3% of dropbacks last season; the league average was 15%.
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
Carolina defenders at Houston
With news of Cam Newton’s foot injury being diagnosed as a Lisfranc issue, Kyle Allen is set to remain as Carolina’s starting quarterback for the foreseeable future. Generally, with inexperienced players – even after such a promising season debut – things tend to regress to the mean as defenses gather more tape. Allen could shine again this week in the same city he played college football, but Houston could equally force some mistakes, putting Carolina’s defense on the field more often.
And that does not even mention the fact that Houston’s offense can turn it on at any given moment with magician Deshaun Watson. Carolina will have its hands full defensively trying to take out the many weapons at Watson’s disposal. Bill O’Brien will also be aware of the Carolina pass rush, which sacked Kyler Murray eight times last week. To avoid a repeat performance, expect a steady dose of the ground game – and plenty of tackle opportunity for the Panthers.
Key stat: The TVO factor in Houston ranked 4th best in the league last season at 1.211.
Buffalo defenders vs. New England
The most enticing game of the early window on Sunday sees two undefeated teams square off. The Patriots feel at times like the bully older brother to the Bills, who are always swiping away the pitying hand of their big brother but never managing to land a killer blow. This could be the week to do just that, with New England’s patchwork offensive line looking somewhat vulnerable.
What this game will most certainly feature is a lot of the ground game from both teams. The Patriots tend to play intelligently against teams with strong pass rushes like Buffalo, using draws and trap plays to manipulate an aggressive defensive front and use their momentum against them. Buffalo’s defense should be on the field plenty against an efficient offense, so don’t be afraid to plug in all your assets.
Key stat: Buffalo’s home stat crew ranked 11th in the league last year in TVO factor, making this a better than average venue for tackles being awarded.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Tennessee and Atlanta defenders
Atlanta has been made reasonably strong favorites in this clash, but to rely on this match-up for tackle production would be a mistake. The Atlanta offense can come to life at home, but there are enough questions with Devonta Freeman and the offensive line play to warrant caution. Drives may stall, and Tennessee tacklers may become less attractive as a result.
Tennessee’s offense has offered little to suggest things will turn around. It may not be too long before Ryan Tannehill is introduced to the starting line-up to provide a spark. After losing one of their key men, Keanu Neal, last week to another Achilles injury, the Falcons defense might be exploitable, but can Marcus Mariota be trusted? I wouldn’t count on it. Fade this match-up if you can.
Key stat: Atlanta’s stadium ranked 29th last season in TVO factor, making it a dead zone for tackle production.
Jacksonville and Denver defenders
Minshew Mania has taken a back seat to Danny Dimes (a.k.a. Daniel Jones) over the past week, but we must not forget how impressive the young Jaguars quarterback looked on Thursday night against Tennessee. The Denver defense will fancy their chances to put Minshew under heat, but this unit has done nothing so far this season to suggest their pass rush will suddenly come to life. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb have cut a frustrated duo.
Despite Minshew’s success, this offense simply doesn’t inspire much confidence, with Leonard Fournette a plodding back at the best of times. Denver’s offense came to life a little bit in Green Bay, but it came in fits and starts. Both defenses should control this game, so the smart play is to err on the side of avoiding this one if tackle production is what you seek.
Key stat: Denver’s stadium ranked 25th in the league in TVO factor last season.
Best of luck with Week 4 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
