Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the third edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
Week 3 has arrived, and along with it more clarity as to how these teams will perform and mature throughout the season ahead. Although we only have two weeks of data points at our disposal, we are starting to sort the wheat from the chaff, the weak from the strong and the exploitable from the avoidable.
Making yourself fully aware of which situations and teams to target and which to avoid can be the difference in early weeks when ostensibly everyone’s line-ups are at their strongest and games can be decided by small margins. As we enter the bye week gauntlet beginning next week, that edge becomes paramount to sustained success and stacking up wins.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s match-ups.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
Green Bay pass rushers vs. Denver offensive line
The Packers defense ranks as Football Outsider’s third-best through two games. The sample size is small, but there is a different feel to this unit than previous seasons. The visit of Joe Flacco and the Broncos offensive line that seemed to collect holding penalties for fun last week will have the Pack’s defensive stalwarts licking their chops.
Our resident offensive line guru Matt Bitonti has the Broncos line ranked 29th, and it is hard to argue based on the lack of cohesiveness on display against Chicago. The game script will be crucial here. If Aaron Rodgers and the offense can overcome a stout Broncos defense and establish a lead, the pass rush should get into a groove. Flacco is not the player he used to be. An immobile quarterback will be just the ticket for Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, among others.
Key stat: Denver’s offensive line gave up pressure on 15% of dropbacks in 2018, a number right on the league average.
Minnesota pass rushers vs. Oakland offensive line
The Vikings have a 6.98% sack rate through two games (11th in the league), but that number could see a significant uptick this week. The Raiders face a stiff road test in the always boisterous US Bank Stadium in Minnesota, where the home team will be keen to exorcise the demons of last week’s disappointing division loss. Oakland will have similar ambitions, but their offensive line may be their undoing.
Derek Carr has a habit of holding the ball a second too long and that habit has led to some pressures in the first two games. Much like the Packers facing an AFC West opponent, the Vikings should be able to control this game and build a lead behind a rushing offense that has averaged 32.5 attempts per game. The Raiders may be capable of putting up a fight, but the Vikings pass rush should be able to bend this shaky offensive line to their will.
Key stat: At home in 2018 the Vikings applied pressure on 21.2% of dropbacks. The average was 15.5% league-wide.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Detroit pass rushers at Philadelphia
The Eagles brass may have watched in dismay as key offensive weapons went down to injury, but they will take some solace out of the fact their offensive line remains strong. The Lions defense is unlikely to create too many problems up front, ranking as they do at 17th in sack percentage, albeit over a two-game sample size. While the personnel has changed for Detroit, it seems not much else has: this is still a below-average pass-rushing unit.
As a result, Philadelphia’s offense should be able to dictate proceedings and maintain a balanced approach that will keep Detroit guessing. As comfortable home favorites – according to Vegas bookmakers – Carson Wentz and company should keep their opponent at arm’s length. After last week’s beating, don’t expect the Eagles coaches to leave Wentz out to dry at the end of the game. Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders will see plenty of work.
Key stat: The Lions averaged pressure on just 14.3% of opponent dropbacks last season, with the league average at 15%.
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
New York Jets defenders at New England
I feel for Jets fans, I really do. Just when it appears as though your franchise savior has arrived to turn the ship around, he contracts mononucleosis and suddenly things become stagnant again. A brave defensive performance in Week 2 wasn’t enough, as the offense provided too little punch – or none at all, to be frank – as Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk failed to inspire.
The Patriots will be pleased to see their green-clad division rivals coming into Foxborough, as Bill Belichick’s defense eyes another shutout. The New England offense may decide to play this one in close quarters, minimizing the hits on Tom Brady by handing it off to their stable of running backs. It means a healthy dollop of tackle opportunity for the Jets, who should be on the back foot from the word go.
Key stat: The Patriots’ home stat crew ranked third in the league last year with a TVO factor of 1.227.
Cincinnati defenders at Buffalo
The Bills have been efficient yet entertaining in their opening pair of games, both on the road and both in New York (New Jersey, really, but you get the point). Cincinnati has done what they do best: reel you in, then throw you out of the boat before you knew what had happened. Sean McDermott’s team has a strong identity and the team seems to be completely bought into his program.
Meanwhile, Zac Taylor is still getting to know his team and has some groundwork to do before he can build up the house around him. The Bills could be home wreckers here for the Bengals, relying on a punishing ground game that has shown terrific diversity and creativity to blot out the Bengals’ challenge. Cincinnati’s defenders should see plenty of tackle opportunities as a result as the Bills bid to go 3-0.
Key stat: Buffalo’s home stat crew ranked 11th in the league last year, giving tacklers a real boost in value.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Tennessee and Jacksonville defenders
Why didn’t the Jaguars trust in Minshew Mania last week and put the ball in the rookie’s hands on that final play? We may never know, but one thing is certain: the kid has some moxie to him. The Jalen Ramsey trade talk is a huge distraction for this team, but that won’t have an impact on the offense which is, to be kind, pedestrian.
The Titans produced a pretty gormless display at home last week, dropping a home division game that they could easily have won. They have a chance to put that behind them in another eminently winnable contest, but their offense, too, is hard to get excited about. What it all points to is a low scoring grappling contest with defenses dominating. The TVO factor makes this a stay-away game.
Key stat: The Jaguars had the 30th-ranked TVO factor at home in 2018, making their stadium one of the poorest for those seeking to maximize points from tackles.
Kansas City and Baltimore defenders
The football world will be looking forward to this game, a battle of two of the brightest young quarterbacks in the sport. For both teams, this represents their stiffest test so far, so it is tricky to predict how things will pan out. Offenses are likely to be on top, however, which on the surface should provide plenty of tackle opportunities.
The gut feeling here is that this will remain close, however, minimizing rushing attempts and forcing both passers to keep their foot on the pedal. The TVO factor is not kind in Kansas City, meaning less bang for your buck on a tackle for tackle basis. Bench your key IDP options in this one unless you have no better alternatives.
Key stat: Arrowhead Stadium ranked 27th in TVO factor in 2018, making it one of the poorest venues for tackles and assists being doled out.
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Best of luck with Week 3 and make sure to check back next week for more match-up analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
