I Will Survive: Managing Survivor Leagues

Photo: Imagn Images

There are all kinds of games that you can play with football as the backdrop. Fantasy football is the king of the hill, but it is not the only game in town. Office pools are all over the place with varying formats -- picking every game-winner either against the spread or by ranking each game on a point scale (also known as a confidence pool). Another favorite game that is not quite as common but that has been around for quite a while is the Eliminator or Survivor pool.

The reality television show Survivor has been on 30+ seasons (believe it or not, the anniversary of the first Survivor season finale just passed, on August 23 - way back in 2000), and the premise has been the same since the beginning -- Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. The concept is pretty simple and has been around for ages -- last man (or woman) standing wins. That is the idea behind Eliminator or Survivor pools -- everyone is on the same footing when the season starts, and all you have to do is to pick one team to win their game that given week. If you are right, you move on to the next week, but if they lose -- you are eliminated from the pool. The other trick is that once you pick a given team, you cannot use them again the rest of the way, making it progressively harder to find that winning team each week.

Variations on this theme do exist, including pools where you can buy back in after one misstep and also the inverted method where you have to pick a team that will lose that week instead of win. All of them are valid ways to play, but for simplicity, let's focus on the simplest version here -- win or go home every week. Also for ease of description, simply call this contest a "Survivor pool".

Earlier this year, I wrote an article on these types of leagues (Survivor Pool Strategy), and back then I promised readers that I would follow up that article with a Master Plan prior to Week 1 for this coming NFL regular season. This is that article. It would be a good idea to refresh your minds as to the Rules of Engagement I have learned over the years when it comes to playing in these types of contests, and I will refer back to those rules when I outline this plan. In addition, I also produced a handy-dandy chart to refer to that can be found in my other survivor article from the preseason (Prepping for Survivor Leagues), which took two years to finally get to a chart that I was happy with and ready to share. All of this information, along with the latest news, is what led to this plan. So here we go.

THE PRESEASON MASTER PLAN

As I mentioned earlier, I have learned a lot of lessons on what to do (and what not to do) when it comes to being competitive in Survivor pools. Having played in these types of contests for nearly two decades, I have come up with a number of rules that I try to adhere to when it comes to developing my plan to be both competitive and keep my entry alive in these contests, year after year. That was the main subject for the first part of this series, but now it is time to apply some of those rules to develop my first take at a master plan. Keep in mind, all good plans have some wiggle room and ability to change, so nothing is set in stone – but if I was forced to pick 17 winners in a row before the league kicks off after Labor Day, this would be my best attempt. Here we go:

Applying the first rule:

The first rule of Survivor pools -- pick good teams. Yes, this is the kind of deep analysis you can expect from this article. Seriously though, this sounds simple, but it is important to start with your list of teams that you want to use this season. I tend to start by looking at the teams that made it to the playoffs from the year before and also any team that had at least nine wins a year ago. I am also not only just looking at who was good last year. If anything rings true in the NFL, it is that the prior season does not always indicate how a team will do next year. Rather, I am going to use Las Vegas against itself (like I always like to do) and just take a hard look at every team that is favored to win at least 8.5 games.

This takes me back to the Prepping for Survivor Leagues article, where I first introduced this Table:

Table 1: Expected Wins for All 32 NFL Franchises in 2019

Here is where taking a few weeks between prepping and planning can really change things up (the NFL is Not For Long, after all) - four teams' win totals changed in Table 1 since first publication, most notably Indianapolis. With Andrew Luck's retirement, the Colts are now expected to teeter around seven wins, turning a run at the playoffs into a tough season ahead. The news on Luck coupled with Lamar Miller's torn ACL impacted the win totals for two other AFC South teams (Houston, Tennessee), while Baltimore inexplicably came down from nine to only eight wins. Even with the changes above, we can focus almost exclusively on the left side of that table, as there are 17 teams that are expected to win at least 8.5 games (now 16 thanks to the Colts). Comparing that list to the 15 teams that won at least nine games last season and there is nearly direct overlap - only Houston (projected to win 8.5 games in 2019 despite going 11-5 last year) and Tennessee (expected to win only 7.5 games, 7-9 in 2018) failed to appear on the left side of Table 1. That leaves four teams in Table 1 that project for winning seasons that did not go 8-8 or better last year - Atlanta (7-9), Cleveland (7-8-1), Green Bay and San Francisco (4-12). Starting with a plan that includes the 14 teams that fit both categories (projecting for 8+ wins this year and 8+ wins last season) [Update - keeping the Colts for now, but adding Houston] seems like a very good list as a starting point for the 2019 Survivor Plan, while the other six teams in either category should help to finalize the general strategy for this season.

Now let’s look at Rule #2:

Find bad teams -- Similar concept to the first rule, but this is actually a bit harder. Teams that are terrible last year often make major changes because they have to and possibly because they changed over coaches, personnel or both. If you can predict the 3-5 worst teams for the coming year, though, you will be well on your way to winning your Survivor pool.

This year I am taking the approach once again of targeting the teams expected to get 6.5 wins or fewer. That group limits me to eight teams, but the clearer targets are Miami (only 4.5 wins), Cincinnati (5.5) and Arizona (5.5). The Cardinals are putting in a new offense with a rookie quarterback in Kyle Murray, but the problems on defense cannot be ignored. The Bengals are also putting in a new offense, but the team has a banged up top wideout in A.J. Green and the defense is also a question mark. The best team to really target is Miami, who seems to have started tanking for 2019 not long after the NFL draft was completed in the spring. It should be a long season for Dolphins fans, but even the worst NFL teams cannot be taken lightly. Targeting any of these eight franchises in unfavorable circumstances such as on the road against a playoff-caliber team is the general strategy. The correct mix of games against these 4-8 teams with an emphasis on the Top 15-19 teams in Table 1 will put you far ahead this year.

Now that I have several bad teams marked on my schedule, matchups will dictate which teams to target, but when in doubt I will look to these teams (and their opponents) for a win. Time to look at our next rule, Rule #3:

Start planning the entire season, almost. I like to look at the season in six stages, breaking up the NFL regular season into 3-game groups from Week 1 onward. That makes for five groups (Weeks 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12 and 13-15) plus the last two weeks of the year. I leave Weeks 16 and 17 in isolation for two reasons. First, I hope that the Survivor pool contest is over by then, and I don't have to worry about those weeks. Second, those two weeks are now riddled with divisional matchups, which make them very hard to pick. I know going into that phase of the regular season that I will have to be making difficult selections, and I will leave those for the end game of the contest. If I think that the contest will last to Week 16 or 17, I will start planning for that eventuality around Week 13 or 14.

My plan here is to script out the first 15 games, and then play it by ear for the last two weeks when the NFL Schedule is riddled with divisional games. By then I hope that (A) the contest might be over, (B) the good teams (and bad teams) will present themselves quickly, and (C) I will still be alive and kicking with just two games to go. As anyone who remembers how crazy last year started, getting to Week 4 is not an easy task - let alone Week 16.

Before diving into the full plan, there is an added feature I was able to find for 2019. Typically in August, all you can find for preparation are the futures from Las Vegas on team wins for the season and the opening lines for Week 1. This year, two different sites (thelines.com and footballlocks.com) are providing the preliminary point spreads on all of the games (almost - one goes to Week 15, one to Week 16). Using that in tandem with Table 1 and the other charts from the Prepping for Survivor Leagues article should yield an even better plan for this season.

Now, rather than breaking this down team by team, let's go week by week, which is what we really want to know about anyway:

WEEK 1 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: Baltimore, Philadelphia, Dallas, Seattle, Cleveland, Kansas City, and New England

Summary: Week 1 is typically tricky, but there are a number of teams with at least a "2.5" advantage rating from Table 2 in Prepping for Survivor Leagues this season, which points directly to favorable matchups. Both the Eagles and the Patriots have a ton of good matchups this year (i.e. a "soft schedule"), so they are going to be mentioned most weeks - the trick with both teams is finding the right time to use them. That is also the case for the Ravens, who have a good Week 1 opponent in the Dolphins, but a road game in hot Miami could be a problem. Dallas hosts the Giants and Cleveland hosts Tennessee, but both teams will be held for later. The same can be said for the Chiefs, even with a road game in Jacksonville to start the season. The real target for Week 1 is Seattle, as the Seahawks have their home opener against an A.J. Green-less Cincinnati team with new head coach Zac Taylor. Seattle usually has a strong home-field advantage, and the game opened up with the Seahawks having about a 6-point head start in Las Vegas, but it is now 9 or 9.5 points according to the latest line, and a money line for Seattle at -420 (which is >80% chance of winning). No better time to take Seattle than to start the year.

The Pick: Seattle Seahawks [-9 to -9.5, -420 Money Line], (hosting Cincinnati)

WEEK 2 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: New England, Kansas City, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Los Angeles Chargers, San Francisco 49ers

Summary: This is the spot to take the Ravens, as they have their home opener against the Arizona Cardinals. While everyone will rave over Kyle Murray, Baltimore is known for their defense and Lamar Jackson should have a field day against the Arizona defense. All of the other teams are reasonable options, but you want to start the season with safe picks, and a 2018 playoff team's home opener against a team expected to win 5.5 games all year that is on the road at 1:00 pm from the West Coast - that is about as perfect as you can get. Both sites' lines agree as Baltimore is an 8.5-point favorite, which implies that the Ravens should win this contest over 80% of the time.

The Pick: Baltimore Ravens [-8.5], (hosting Arizona)

WEEK 3 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: New England, Dallas, Philadelphia, and Minnesota

Summary: Week 3 is one of the first weeks where we will have to "steal a game", meaning that we cannot take the 14 best teams as discussed above every week. One of the second-tier teams to use is the Vikings, who might be struggling a bit out of the blocks with a home game against Atlanta in Week 1 prior to a trip to Green Bay in Week 2. Even an 0-2 Minnesota team should be favored at home against the Raiders, as Oakland is expected to only win six games this season. Now, the irony is not lost upon me as last year in Week 3 Minnesota was upset in epic style at home against Buffalo, but let's try and not remember that one and hope that the Vikings as a touchdown favorite will get the job done against the Black and Silver. The alternative pick ("Plan B") would be to take the Cowboys at home against the Dolphins, but then you will need to count on the Vikings deeper into the season, which could also prove to be a little risky.

The Pick: Minnesota Vikings [-7], (hosting Oakland)

Plan B = Dallas [-8.5], vs. Miami

WEEK 4 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams and Seattle

Summary: Bye weeks start in Week 4, with the Jets and the 49ers taking the week off. Seven teams make our shortlist, but Seattle was already used in Week 1. While both the Chargers (at Miami) and the Colts (hosting Oakland) look quite attractive - especially Indianapolis with a probable 8-point head start, according to both sites - there is a reason to save Indianapolis for a much tougher spot in Week 10. The two teams that catch my eye are the Steelers (hosting the Bengals on Monday Night Football) and the Rams (hosting Tampa Bay).

Before getting to the pick, let me break down how critical this point of the season is. Last year, more than half of Survivor teams had lost after three weeks (I'm looking at you, Vikings) - so getting even to this point is not easy. Now, Week 4 is a tricky one as it is a "decision point" with my initial plan for 2019. The choice here, as do all choices throughout the season, impacts the rest of the year by not only locking in a team but removing them as an option for later in the season. That is a critical point as I see three reasonable options for Week 4 that impact choices for December according to "Plan A", "Plan B" and "Plan C" for 2019. Plan A has the pick pointing to the Rams, as they host Tampa Bay and are expected to be double-digit (-11) favorites at home. Plan B would take the Steelers, hosting the Bengals on Monday at only slightly less odds (-10). Both are very attractive options, but "Plan C" has to be thrown out there - and it is a bit of an odd choice. This pick would be the Atlanta Falcons (hosting Tennessee). Atlanta is only expected to be a 4.5-point favorite, but using the Falcons here allows Pittsburgh and the Rams to be saved for later in the year. That is a risky choice, but this is one of the best opportunities to use Atlanta, and they are expected to win 8.5 games the season. This is a very tough decision and one I hope would clarify more as September and the season wears on. All things considered, my pick in August is the Rams, but expect several back-and-forth discussions and considerations after three games are in the books.

The Pick: Plan A = Los Angeles Rams [-11], (hosting Tampa Bay)

Plan B = Pittsburgh Steelers [-9 to -10, Money Line -400], (hosting Cincinnati on Monday Night Football)

Plan C (higher risk) = Atlanta Falcons [-4 to -4.5], (hosting Tennessee)

WEEK 5 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: New England, New Orleans, Chicago, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia, Minnesota

Summary: Week 5 only has two byes, but there is also just one game with a likely big spread (Patriots at Washington). Chicago is only favored by six points, but some of that is due to facing Oakland in London rather than in Chicago, which takes away the typical 3-point boost for the home team. Oakland will probably be showing signs of improvement from last year, but the Bears' defense will still be formidable, and defense travels very well, even across the Atlantic.

The Pick: Chicago [-6]. vs. Oakland (in London, England)

WEEK 6 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: New England, Baltimore, Atlanta, Kansas City

Summary: Week 6 could be a week to pivot to taking Atlanta, as there are few options to take the Falcons this year, but a road game in Arizona has Atlanta as a 3-point favorite as they visit the Cardinals. If you would rather play it more conservative, which is usually the safe way to go, then just take the Patriots in a home matchup with the Giants. New England is an 11-point favorite at home on a very short week for Thursday Night Football, which should easily lead to a victory.

The Pick: New England [-11]. vs New York Giants (on Thursday Night Football)

WEEK 7 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: New England, Buffalo, Green Bay, Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers

Summary: This is the week to take Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home against Oakland, even with the Raiders coming off of their bye week. A cold trip to Lambeau in mid-October with Green Bay favored by more than a touchdown should get you another victory, even with four teams on a bye.

The Pick: Green Bay [-8.5], vs. Oakland

WEEK 8 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota, New England, Philadelphia

Summary: Two teams have Week 8 off, so there are several paths to success here in late October. If you chose to save the Vikings, they have a strong Thursday Night Football matchup at home against Washington (favored by 7.5 or 8 points), but if Minnesota is unavailable after picking them in Week 3 as recommended, one of the best choices is New Orleans. The Saints host the Cardinals and are expected to be favored by over two touchdowns (-14.5), which works out to be about a 95% win probability. The Rams are also in play (-12.5, vs. Cincinnati in London, England), but the sneaky pick is the Steelers hosting the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. The deciding factors for taking Pittsburgh instead of New Orleans are the Steelers coming off of their Week 7 bye week here and also looking ahead to the Week 15 matchup for both teams, which favors using the Saints in December instead of Pittsburgh - just slightly. More on that when we get to Week 15.

The Pick: Pittsburgh [-10.5], vs. Miami (Monday Night Football)

Plan B = New Orleans [-14.5], vs. Oakland

WEEK 9 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: Dallas, New York Jets and San Francisco (along with Seattle and Kansas City)

Summary: If you have made it this far - congratulations. This is going to be a tough week, make no mistake about it. Based on early point spreads, there are only two games where there is a team favored by more than four points - the Seahawks hosting Tampa Bay, and the Chiefs playing the Vikings in Arrowhead. So which one to pick? Neither! Crazy talk? Crazy like a fox, perhaps. Every season, you have to steal one or two games as the schedule never lines up perfectly. Seattle was the pick back in Week 1, and Kansas City will have an even better matchup in a few weeks. Digging deep into Week 9, many signs point towards taking a divisional team on the road - which breaks not just one but TWO rules - but there are good reasons to go for Dallas in Week 9. First, it is the Cowboys coming off of a bye week, so they will have 15 days between contests as they head to New Jersey to take on a very familiar opponent in the Giants. This game will be the second matchup between these two as it is a rematch of the Dallas home opener in Week 1. The Cowboys love to get up for prime time contests, and they will be coming off of a big Sunday Night Football clash in Week 7 with the Eagles before this Monday Night showdown with the Giants. If Dallas wants to keep up with Philadelphia, they have to beat a team that they are better than on paper, and they must take care of business against New York. The "Plan B" here - which could easily become "Plan A" - would be to take Kansas City at home and then use Dallas in Week 13 instead (foreshadowing). Let's make that switch now, as Week 13 looks far easier for the Cowboys, but leave both options as considerations as Week 9 gets closer.

The Pick: Plan A - Kansas City [-7], vs. Minnesota

Plan B = Dallas [-3], at the New York Giants (Monday Night Football)

WEEK 10 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: Indianapolis, Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore

Summary: "Breakdown" is a good word for Week 10, as this was the week that I had planned to get a "W" where many would lose, thanks to Mr. Luck. Of the four teams under consideration, only Indianapolis is at home in Week 10. The Colts are hosting Miami on a week where no one else was to be favored by more than six points, so those fortunate enough to save Indianapolis for Week 10 would be way ahead for the week (the Colts were originally nearly a 10-point favorite in Week 10 before Luck retired). Well, such is life, and with Luck's retirement, Week 10 becomes more of a tougher call - but according to the latest projected lines, the Colts are still favored by almost a touchdown against those same Dolphins. Taking the Colts at home in Week 10 affords Indianapolis more than half of a season to get themselves right and ready for a game that they should win, Luck or no Luck. Sticking with the original plan.

The Pick: Indianapolis Colts [-6.5], (vs. Miami)

WEEK 11 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: New Orleans, San Francisco, Buffalo, and Indianapolis

Summary: The Bills (hosting Miami) sneak onto a weak list of four teams for Week 11, but the one that stands out is San Francisco. The 49ers have a tough schedule with only three games likely to be strong favorites (Week 2 at the Bengals, Week 9 at Arizona and Week 11 vs. Arizona). Week 11 is the only time the 49ers will be bigger favorites at home based on the preseason numbers, and with the need to target 17 different teams, this is the spot to use them. Even though this is a divisional contest and a rematch from just two weeks prior, it will be the fourth road game in five weeks for the Cardinals.

The Pick: San Francisco [-8.5], vs. Arizona

WEEK 12 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: Cleveland, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and New England

Summary: Once again just four teams to select from that should be favored by a good margin, but the Browns only appear three times all season across the 16 weeks with preseason point spreads. Week 10 (vs. Buffalo) was also considered, but given how tricky it is to use the Colts now, that week went to using Indianapolis. Chicago and Pittsburgh have multiple options, but the Browns (-8 vs. Miami) look to be in the best spot for Week 12.

The Pick: Cleveland [-8], vs. Miami

WEEK 13 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: Philadelphia, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Los Angeles Rams, New England, Green Bay, Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas

Summary: Week 13 is Thanksgiving Week, and that is a significant factor in this last selection for the month of November. As mentioned back in Week 9, Kansas City (-13, hosting Oakland after the Chiefs' bye) was a strong option, but taking the Cowboys on Thanksgiving as they host the Bills looks like the best choice. Dallas is favored by a touchdown and Buffalo will have to contend with a road game on a short week. Dallas will be gunning for a win here before four final NFC clashes to close out their regular season in December, so getting a victory will be key to a playoff push. Do not be surprised to doze off on Turkey Day in what could be a blowout for the home team. Get your "W" early for Week 13 and rest easy on the weekend.

The Pick: Dallas [-7], vs. Buffalo (Thanksgiving Thursday)

WEEK 14 BREAKDOWN

Teams to consider: Philadelphia, Cleveland, Indianapolis, New York Jets, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay

Summary: December continues in full force with just four weeks to go in the regular season, and we are down to only a few good teams left from Table 1. All of the franchises under consideration have been used except for the Jets (-6, vs. Miami) and the Eagles (-8.5 vs. the Giants). Both matchups are divisional pairings, as those types of contests dominate the end of the regular season. Philadelphia kicks off four consecutive NFC East games to end their 2019 campaign, starting with a Monday Night clash with the Giants in Week 14. New York could easily have packed it in by this time and could be starting Daniel Jones to close out the year. Look for the Eagles to pick up a home win in prime time.

The Pick: Philadelphia [-8.5], vs. New York Giants (Monday Night Football)

WEEK 15 BREAKDOWN

Teams to Consider: New England, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cleveland, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh

Summary: The season is winding down at this point and so are our options. Only one of the six teams listed above is still a viable choice due to earlier picks, as the Steelers were used back in Week 8 instead of the Saints so that New Orleans could be used here. The Saints host the Colts on Monday Night Football for the last home game of the regular season for New Orleans. Who knows how tough of a year it will be for Indianapolis to this point, but the Saints stand as a touchdown favorite in the Big Easy. Taking Drew Brees at home before two final road games (at Tennessee, at Carolina) to close out the season makes a ton of sense, so that is the pick.

The Pick: New Orleans [-7], vs. Indianapolis (Monday Night Football)

WEEK 16 BREAKDOWN

Teams to Consider: Los Angeles Chargers, New England, New Orleans, and Seattle

Summary: Things are winding down quickly here, with just two weeks left on the season. That's good news because we are running out of teams. The Patriots, Saints and Seahawks have all been used in the Plan A approach, so this clearly points to take the Chargers as they host the Raiders. Barring an early start to the rainy season in Los Angeles, the weather should be fine for a Chargers team that should be in the playoff hunt. Los Angeles is a preseason favorite (-9) against Oakland, but plenty of Raiders fans will still make their presence known. Philip Rivers knows how to handle these situations, and taking Los Angeles at home feels pretty good as a home favorite by more than a touchdown.

The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers [-9], vs. Oakland

WEEK 17 BREAKDOWN

Teams to Consider: Everyone not used (half-joking), but probably Houston

Summary: If you have managed to save any of the teams on the left side of Table 1 above, nice job. The plan in Week 17 is rather simple - focus on the best team projected to have eight wins or more left, which points towards the Texans. Houston should have wrapped up the AFC South by this time, but they could easily be jockeying for seeding in the AFC with Kansas City and New England, so this game should matter to Houston quite a bit. The Texans and Titans played in Week 15 so this is a quick rematch, but Houston should have plenty to play for in their regular season and home finale. I am estimating that the Texans will be favored by about five points, as they are listed as +1 underdogs in Week 15 in Tennessee, so flipping the 3-point advantage for a home team moves that line six points the other way. If everything goes just right, Houston could bring home a big reward just before New Year's Eve.

The Pick: Houston [TBD, but estimated at -5], vs. Tennessee

PARTING THOUGHTS

I know that this has been a long article, but I hope that the read was worth it. By focusing on the Top 17 teams (the left side of Table 1) along with Houston (who just moved to an Over/Under of 8.5 wins), the 17 choices for the 2019 Survivor Plan came out of these 18 possible teams. (See Table 2 for a complete list of the picks, along with a few alternate selections). Only Atlanta failed to make the cut, and they were a questionable inclusion with their missing of the postseason last year, although they are an alternate Week 4 pick for a riskier approach (best reserved for big leagues with buy-backs). Every game in Plan A is a home contest (although technically Chicago-Oakland is a neutral site in London) with a projected favorite of at least six points, and quite often more. Nearly every game is against teams projected for 7.5 wins or less (Kansas City hosting Minnesota in Week 9 is the lone exception), and 13 of of the 17 games are against the Bottom 6 teams from Table 1 (Oakland four times, Miami three, Arizona and the Giants twice each, along with one game against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati). The average point spread for Weeks 1-16 is over 8 points, which translates to an average win percentage probability of 79%. Playing that out for 16 weeks gives a 2.3% chance of going 16-0, which sounds bad until you compare it to just flipping a coin, which has a 1 in 65,535 chance, or 0.00153%. To put those two numbers in perspective, the Survivor Plan's win percentage is just over 1,500 times better than flipping a coin for providing a 16-0 record heading into Week 17. Those are pretty good odds. No plan is perfect, but this Survivor Plan feels pretty solid - at least here at the end of August. Look for weekly updates to this article as part of the Footballguys' Survivor Pool articles, starting next week and every week of the regular season!

Table 2: The Survivor Plan for 2019

Survivor pools are a lot of fun, and it makes for a great contest to keep you interested in the NFL for most - if not all - of the regular season. Finding a contest like this and potentially winning the prize is a great way to enjoy the sport we all love in yet another way, so go ahead and play in one this year. With any luck, proper planning and the advice you read here (along with our weekly staff Survivor contest) will get you a long way towards winning that pool.

Best of luck this season.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

Follow @JeffPasquino