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How to Attack Your Large-League PPR Draft

Jeff Tefertiller's How to Attack Your Large-League PPR Draft
By Jeff Tefertiller, July 30, 2019

How to Attack Your Large-League PPR Draft
Photo: Imagn Images

Large leagues are a lot of fun. The additional teams and PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring adds a different dimension to standard leagues. These leagues are much different than the standard scoring, twelve-team ones. It is a losing proposition to use draft strategies intended for smaller or standard scoring leagues and try to adapt those to PPR and sixteen teams. An entirely different strategy is required in order to make the most of the draft. This article will look at sixteen-team leagues using PPR scoring. We will examine strategies specially designed for the larger PPR leagues to best attack the draft and get the most from the roster. These will help you form a new strategy for your larger league.

Down to Basics

What are the differences I should know about the large PPR leagues?

In general, the larger the league, the more positional scarcity comes into play, especially at the quarterback position. In twelve-team leagues, there might be twelve starting quarterbacks you would want as your starter. But, when the number of teams goes to sixteen, there will be a few fantasy squads with poor quarterback play. This is not as true with the running back position in PPR when compared to non-PPR scoring. PPR leagues still reward quarterback and running back play, but there are subtle differences. First, the elite backs with strong receiving skills are gold in PPR leagues. They are scarce. Plus, some lesser ball carriers catch enough passes to be viable starters, increasing the number of players in the position pool. The value at the wide receiver position gains value on the running backs earlier in the draft when compared to non-PPR leagues. There is an increased number of wideouts now in play for the early rounds. The large league means that we must have a plan to get the most value out of the running backs and wide receivers.

Anyone who has been caught in a position run in a standard twelve-team league knows how hopeless and frustrating it can be feeling there is nothing you can do to help your situation as you see player after player selected. These runs affect every position in the larger PPR leagues. The extra teams mean the runs can be long and those left out are in even worse shape than in the smaller leagues. The talent plateaus at certain points in the draft mean a drop-off is coming if you do not take a player in the run.

Since most larger leagues have fewer roster spots per team, each one is important. Knowing how to strike the best balance is the key. This involves the tight end, kicker, and team defense positions as well as depth at running back and wide receiver.

Knowing when to take a kicker or team defense is a bigger issue in the larger leagues. Few strong options exist, but must we use an early pick to get the kicker and team defense we want?

Basic Strategy

How do I best address these issues above?

Due to fewer desirable alternatives at the quarterback position, expect to select your starter earlier than in twelve-team leagues. While it seems unfathomable to most fantasy owners, it might be best to draft a starting quarterback in the first few rounds, especially if you are picking at the end of the first round. There are a couple of reasons for this strategy. In all league sizes, if you are drafting at the end of round one, you need to have positions of strength in order to make up the sizable deficit at the wide receiver and running back positions. So, selecting a quarterback at the 1/2 turn helps to get a stud at the position in larger leagues. The other aspect to consider is how many at the position could be gone before your third-round pick. You could take QB2 in the early part of the second round or the QB10 (or worse) at the end of the fourth round. There is a huge difference in the predictability of future production as well as the level of certainty of the situation in the elite passer. There are many more viable fantasy wideouts than rushers after the first twenty picks. In large leagues that start two running backs, three wide receivers, and a flex, both positions are important for different reasons. Getting an anchor fantasy RB1 is the first course of action unless a top receiver or Travis Kelce is available at a discount. Then, consider players of value at both positions for many rounds with only a quarterback mixed in, as the value dictates. Unless you take Kelce early, tight ends can offer value in the eighth round or later.

Positional runs are a tough pill to swallow. You need to plan and be proactive. Stay ahead of the runs by picking your core positions early. This means, as stated above, selecting starters at quarterback and your first running back earlier than normal with the thought that there are plenty of choices available later at wide receiver in PPR leagues. As you move to the middle rounds of your draft, start keeping tabs on the tight end position. Make a list of players you will be fine with as fantasy starters at the position and be proactive as your list gets smaller and smaller. For rounds four through eight, you will find great options at wide receiver, so plan out your strategy and wait to see where the value lies.

Roster management is very important in the larger leagues, especially those rewarding points for receptions. Knowing how to best manage your depth roster spots is difficult. The first thing to do is to see what your league rewards compared to the strengths (and weaknesses) of your starting lineup. In the PPR leagues, your reserves should include plenty of running backs and wide receivers. It might be best to stash an upside back or handcuff of a starter. Also, since the wide receiver position has plenty of good options, it is best to roster as many pass-catchers as possible. Several emerge each season to be strong fantasy starters. Many times, it is best to select only one kicker and one team defense in order to free as many bench roster spots as possible for running backs and wide receivers. Make sure to draft kickers and team defenses with late byes. By midseason, there will be plenty of options available on the waiver wire. The key is finding starters at those positions with a late bye. At the tight end position, there are differing opinions as to the need for rostering a backup. If you have a stud at the position, meaning you have one of the better starters in expected production, then it is best not to roster a backup. Save the bench spot for another position. You invested a quality pick at the position. There is no need to use another roster spot, too. But it is best to have a quality reserve tight end if you do not have a top tight end. That is one position where players emerge and disappoint every year.

It might be best to address the kicker and team defense positions a little earlier in larger leagues than in twelve-team leagues. Each year, there are multiple factors which limit the number of desirable options at each position. Just think how few kickers and team defenses have late bye weeks (as discussed above), good strength of schedule for matchup purposes since we are only carrying one at each position, and kicking jobs settled that make your shortlist for both positions. The list is not large.

When we look at the VBD (Value-Based Drafting) application, we quickly realize how balanced the running backs and wide receivers are when compared to the other positions, even in PPR leagues. Yes, as stated above, we advise taking a quarterback early due to scarcity reasons and, the VBD application has only Patrick Mahomes II in the top 48 picks (first 3 rounds). And, even the stud quarterback is not valued highly by the VBD. But, your leaguemates will take quarterbacks early and often. You will have two choices: take one early, too, or get stuck with the likes of Joe Flacco as your starter at the position. The running backs and wide receivers are split fairly evenly during the first few rounds, including each having exactly half of the top 66 players. The VBD accounts for positional scarcity and available options at other positions using the Footballguys.com projections.

Here are the league variables:

  • 16 teams
  • 16 roster spots
  • PPR scoring

And here are the starting requirements:

  • 1 Quarterback
  • 2 Running Backs
  • 3 Wide Receivers
  • 1 Tight End
  • 1 Flex (RB, WR, or TE)
  • 1 Kicker
  • 1 Team Defense

Below is a table with the Top 160 players from the Footballguys projections. Notice how the VBD drops way off after Alvin Kamara (RB4), then slowly declines compared to the other positions. This is very similar to the non-PPR scoring. The point is very important since it illustrates how valuable those top ball carriers are when compared to the lesser options at the position, in both PPR and non-PPR scoring. With so many wideouts becoming valuable earlier, the quarterbacks are pushed down the pile. The good news is that in your draft, you will be able to accumulate value by stockpiling receivers in the middle rounds.

Rank
Pos
PosRank
Player
Team
Bye
Points
VBD
1
RB
1
NYG
11
338
237
2
RB
2
Car
7
330
229
3
RB
3
Dal
8
313
212
4
RB
4
NO
9
307
205
5
RB
5
Ari
12
264
162
6
RB
6
LeVeon Bell
NYJ
4
261
159
7
WR
1
Hou
10
280
149
8
WR
2
Atl
9
277
146
9
RB
7
Pit
7
244
142
10
WR
3
KC
12
267
136
11
RB
8
Cin
9
236
134
12
WR
4
NO
9
263
132
13
WR
5
GB
11
263
131
14
WR
6
Oak
6
262
130
15
WR
7
Pit
7
259
128
16
WR
8
Odell Beckham
Cle
7
259
128
17
RB
9
KC
12
229
127
18
RB
10
Min
12
229
127
19
RB
11
Cle
7
227
126
20
RB
12
LAR
9
224
122
21
WR
9
LAC
12
246
115
22
RB
13
GB
11
213
111
23
RB
14
Det
5
212
111
24
RB
15
Jac
10
210
109
25
WR
10
TB
7
238
107
26
WR
11
Ind
6
238
107
27
TE
1
KC
12
249
106
28
WR
12
Min
12
234
102
29
RB
16
Atl
9
203
101
30
RB
17
Ind
6
201
99
31
RB
18
Ten
11
196
94
32
RB
19
Melvin Gordon
LAC
12
195
93
33
WR
13
Dal
8
223
92
34
RB
20
Oak
6
190
88
35
RB
21
Den
10
190
88
36
WR
14
Min
12
218
87
37
RB
22
NE
10
181
79
38
WR
15
NE
10
208
77
39
RB
23
NE
10
177
75
40
WR
16
Cin
9
204
73
41
WR
17
Det
5
200
69
42
QB
1
KC
12
371
69
43
RB
24
Mark Ingram
Bal
8
169
67
44
RB
25
Sea
11
168
66
45
WR
18
Sea
11
196
65
46
RB
26
Chi
6
165
64
47
WR
19
LAR
9
194
62
48
WR
20
TB
7
192
61
49
RB
27
Mia
5
162
60
50
TE
2
SF
4
203
60
51
TE
3
Phi
10
203
60
52
WR
21
LAR
9
190
58
53
WR
22
Atl
9
183
52
54
RB
28
SF
4
152
50
55
RB
29
Hou
10
149
47
56
WR
23
Cin
9
177
45
57
WR
24
Allen Robinson
Chi
6
176
45
58
WR
25
D.J. Moore
Car
7
175
43
59
RB
30
NO
9
145
43
60
WR
26
NYG
11
173
42
61
WR
27
LAR
9
173
42
62
WR
28
Cle
7
173
42
63
WR
29
Robby Anderson
NYJ
4
173
42
64
RB
31
LAC
12
143
41
65
WR
30
Phi
10
172
41
66
WR
31
LAC
12
169
38
67
WR
32
Ten
11
169
38
68
WR
33
Ari
12
168
37
69
QB
2
Ind
6
339
37
70
QB
3
Hou
10
337
35
71
WR
34
Ari
12
165
34
72
WR
35
Marvin Jones
Det
5
163
32
73
WR
36
SF
4
162
31
74
RB
32
Was
10
132
31
75
RB
33
SF
4
132
30
76
WR
37
Den
10
161
30
77
RB
34
Buf
6
131
29
78
RB
35
Sea
11
130
29
79
RB
36
Ten
11
129
27
80
WR
38
Jac
10
157
26
81
RB
37
Den
10
126
25
82
WR
39
Hou
10
155
24
83
RB
38
TB
7
124
22
84
WR
40
NYG
11
153
21
85
WR
41
Will Fuller
Hou
10
151
20
86
TE
4
NYG
11
163
20
87
RB
39
Was
10
120
18
88
QB
4
GB
11
319
17
89
RB
40
Chi
6
119
17
90
WR
42
KC
12
146
15
91
DEF
1
Chicago
Chi
6
140
14
92
RB
41
Phi
10
116
14
93
QB
5
Phi
10
314
12
94
RB
42
Was
10
114
12
95
RB
43
Oak
6
113
11
96
WR
43
Dal
8
142
11
97
QB
6
Atl
9
313
11
98
RB
44
Chi
6
111
9
99
QB
7
LAR
9
310
8
100
RB
45
Cin
9
110
8
101
PK
1
LAR
9
156
8
102
RB
46
Ind
6
110
8
103
WR
44
Atl
9
139
8
104
RB
47
Phi
10
109
7
105
DEF
2
Jacksonville
Jac
10
130
6
106
WR
45
Car
7
137
6
107
WR
46
Oak
6
137
6
108
RB
48
Darrell Henderson
LAR
9
107
6
109
QB
8
Sea
11
307
5
110
TE
5
Pit
7
149
5
111
WR
47
GB
11
136
5
112
TE
6
LAC
12
148
5
113
PK
2
KC
12
150
3
114
QB
9
Pit
7
305
3
115
QB
10
NO
9
305
3
116
TE
7
NO
9
146
3
117
QB
11
Ari
12
305
3
118
RB
49
Atl
9
104
2
119
QB
12
Cle
7
304
2
120
QB
13
Car
7
304
2
121
RB
50
Pit
7
103
2
122
DEF
3
LA Rams
LAR
9
124
1
123
PK
3
Bal
8
146
1
124
PK
4
NO
9
146
0
125
RB
51
TB
7
102
0
126
TE
8
TB
7
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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