Tough picks generate ambivalence within a fantasy owner. At the sight of their name, you can imagine the glorious heights of their ceilings and the dark and dank floors of their basements — and with little clarity about the direction that they're headed.
Here were my 10 Toughest Picks for 2018:
- Kirk Cousins: At the time of the article, Cousins was ADP 98, QB9. He finished the season QB9. Yours truly recommended Philip Rivers, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, and Patrick Mahomes II as players with equal or greater upside to Cousins. The only quarterback on this list to finish below Cousins of that list was Rivers.
- Joe Mixon: Mixon had an ADP of 31 as the RB16 on the board and the verdict was to take Mixon ahead of ADP peers Jordan Howard, Kenyan Drake, Derrick Henry, and Alex Collins.
- Josh Gordon: With an ADP of 42 as the WR20, the Gut Check recommended Gordon as a fourth-round value and fourth receiver for your Upside Down Drafts where DeAndre Hopkins or Julio Jones would be your WR1; A.J. Green, Davante Adams, or Mike Evans would be your WR2; and Adam Thielen, Larry Fitzgerald, Amari Cooper, or Stefon Diggs would be your WR3. Yours truly also recommended Christian McCaffrey or Devonta Freeman as a second-round option and Gordon in the third round. While a selection of Fitzgerald and Freeman along with Gordon would have been tough to fix, most of these recommendations were strong combinations that would have mitigated the loss of Gordon, who once again appeared and disappeared from the fantasy scene.
- Leonard Fournette: Last year's RB9 in July with an ADP of 13, yours truly recommended conservative drafters to stay away choose two receivers with your opening picks. Fournette disappointed due to injury, which was the reason the Gut Check didn't love the pick last year.
- Jordan Reed: The TE9 of July 2018, Reed's injury issues made him at best, a speculative pick. Yours truly recommended George Kittle as the better value.
- Ronald Jones II II: It's crazy that Jones had an ADP of 63 as the RB26 at this time last year, isn't it? The Gut Check said that Jones was a more dangerous proposition than it appeared.
- Tarik Cohen: Last July, Cohen had a value of RB30 with an ADP of 70. The Gut Check liked him as part of an Upside Down Strategy. When taking another draft path, Yours truly recommended weighing the risks of not getting Royce Freeman, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Drew Brees, or Delanie Walker. If you took Woods or Brees, you probably felt ok about not having Cohen. Otherwise, the Gut Check worried too much about Cohen.
- Deshaun Watson: Last year's QB2 in July with an ADP of 50, the Gut Check didn't like the value and didn't recommend taking him ahead of a list of 15 players. Watson finished as 2018's QB4 and the only two players who offered remotely good starter value within that range of the draft were Sony Michel and Lamar Miller. Passing on Watson was a miss—more for the players he was valued among than taking a quarterback this early — considering that Mahomes, Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger had lower ADPs and better production.
- Carson Wentz: Yours truly believed Watson was a better risk than Wentz's July value of QB6. Yours truly also liked Robert Woods, Emmanuel Sanders, Delanie Walker, and Royce Freeman more. This was mostly wrong, but Wentz has QB23 by year's end didn't make it an egregious error.
- LeSean McCoy: Just a year ago, McCoy was RB13 with an ADP of 22. The Gut Check recommended you to shy away and go with other options. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce were far and away, the best of the five alternatives mentioned, although Doug Baldwin and Rob Gronkowski's end-of-year-value also were on part with McCoy's totals. Verdict: Good call to avoid.
Overall, the Gut Check steered you right on about 7-9 of these picks, depending on the how finely you followed the advice. Here are my 10 toughest picks heading into 2019 drafts. Yours will surely differ, but you may find that your picks share similar reasons as mine.
10. Curtis Samuel (ADP 118, WR47)
There's growing love for Samuel as a breakout candidate after he scored 7 times on 48 touches. However, a majority of his targets came after Week 10. Footballguys' Curtis Samuel Player Page states that this period of Samuel's strong production was "coincidentally at the same time Cam Newton was struggling with his shoulder injury.
While enticing to extrapolate Samuel's peak target period to a 121-target, 71-catch season, is it wise to think Samuel replaces Devin Funchess and becomes the "sneaky good" pick? Our player page lists D.J. Moore as the trendy pick and implies that Samuel might be the better value.
The problem with Samuel is that he's a 'tweener on his own team. It's true that he and Moore are both explosive players in the open field. However, Moore is a far more powerful runner with similar, if not greater explosion. Samuel played running back at Ohio State, but it was in a cameo role on the same level of Saturday Night Live asking Cam Newton to play a flight attendant for a seven-minute skit—enjoyable, but Newton won't be making a career change.
New arrival, Chris Hogan is also a more versatile route runner than Samuel. It's hard to imagine Carolina finding other ways to use Samuel beyond that of a short-range gadget. Unless Moore gets hurt, Samuel's game either equates to specialized usage at lesser volume or a redundancy plan for Moore.
Verdict: The Gut Check projections for Samuel lands him at WR48—nearly identical to his average positional ADP in late June. A player with a similar style but a more refined game in an offense with greater passing upside is Keke Coutee as WR45 and an ADP of 112.
D.K. Metcalf is a massive, boom-bust proposition at 111. Even so, the Gut Check prefers taking a chance on Metcalf's touchdown and big-play upside at the mid-point of fantasy drafts. Samuel needs more things to happen in his favor than Metcalf to earn high-upside opportunities.
Yours truly is letting the Curtis Samuel train leave the station—even if he doesn't catch the early-arriving Metcalf and Coutee routes. After all, DeSean Jackson will be around at ADP 126 if seeking big-play upside and Anthony Miller at 134 is also a more refined version of Samuel.
9. David Njoku (ADP 87, TE9)
A freakish athlete, Njoku nearly doubled his receiving and yardage totals in 2018. It's an impressive feat considering the turmoil in Cleveland that he's been around for most of his two-year NFL career.
The addition of Odell Beckham, Jr. should create open seams for Njoku that the third-year tight end hasn't seen as often since entering the league. If Antonio Callaway takes another step forward, Njoku could earn excellent mismatches for a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who is willing to deliver "trust targets" to athletes who can win the ball in one-on-one situations.
While Njoku's path still has promising upside because of the growth of the offense and his physical upside, the Browns also added the athletic Demetrius Harris from Kansas City. Harris is the superior blocker to Njoku and he's a smooth athlete around the ball. Cleveland wants to run the ball and the front office's addition of Harris sends the message that Njoku must prove that he's more than a big receiver.
For Njoku to reach his fantasy upside, the Browns will need to target him 10-12 times per game—this only happened twice last year. Njoku was more likely to earn 5-6 targets and rarely more than 7.
Verdict: Expect Njoku to earn similar production this year compared to last. Because of Cleveland's weapons, and the lesser priority that it gave Njoku when it lacked an option the caliber of Beckham, there's actually more paths towards Njoku disappointing than exceeding expectations. Harris will earn more time as an inline option for Cleveland, which means that one of Callaway, Higgins, and/or Jarvis Landry will have to leave the field if the Browns use Njoku in the slot and Harris still in the game.
While Njoku offers more upside than Vance McDonald (TE10), Austin Hooper (TE11), Delanie Walker (TE12), and T.J. Hockenson (TE13) have greater upside this year. So does TE14 Trey Burton. It's worth taking one of these four tight ends and opting for upside plays like Darrell Henderson (if he doesn't climb further), Dante Pettis, and Jordan Howard. If those options see a climb, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Drew Brees, and Jared Goff are decent values as well.
Njoku's upside is athletic ability without the supporting substance to his game. He must prove otherwise before taking him this early because his ADP is an investment based on his ceiling rather than his midpoint potential or floor.
8. RB Derrius Guice, (ADP 65, RB29)
Quick, agile, powerful, and versatile, if everything goes right for Guice in Washington, he has the talent to become a top-10 a top-5 fantasy running back this year. It's why he's a sixth-round option despite missing his rookie year with an ACL tear and a rehab dealing with an infection.
If healthy, Guice could earn the starting job behind an offensive line that's excellent on paper, but hasn't stayed healthy for years. As an aside, the Gut Check wonders if academics could study the psychology of football injuries if they'd discover that more players get hurt on teams with dysfunctional leadership than those with healthy management systems. Yours truly would bet that they could name this the Daniel Snyder Debilitation Effect.
Washington is a place where if things can go wrong, it often will. Although Guice may prove healthy and worthy of earning strong gains behind another tattered offensive line, we know that Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson are worthy producers on the depth chart who could force a committee.
Verdict: The appeal of Guice is similar to the sway that Ronald Jones II held over fantasy players at this time last year. We sell ourselves on the idea that we're getting a potentially elite player at a discount, but the reality is that players like Jones and Guice are unproven investments with severe mark-ups.
Adrian Peterson still has the burst, explosion, cutting ability, and 20-touch-per-game power and stamina of an NFL starter. And if Chris Thompson can stay on the field for more than eight games, he'll wreck the upside of any back on the depth chart working in tandem with him.
Until we see Guice perform to his ability during the preseason and earn Jay Gruden's selection as the lead back, drafting Guice this early is too risky. Baker Mayfield is available at a similar range and has both the proven performance on an NFL field and upside that people are imagining from Guice.
Tyler Boyd could offer Cooper Kupp's top-15 PPR upside at a discount in Zac Taylor's Mid-West adaptation of the Rams offense. Mike Williams and Robby Anderson offer strong upside and a higher floor. And if you want to go super-safe, Matt Ryan is waiting for you at the 6-7 turn.
If Guice blows the doors off of training camp and the preseason and the Washington offensive line stays healthy, he'll be worth his current ADP. Even so, there's still a great deal of uncertainty with the surrounding offensive talent that could limit his touches this year. It's hard to find a clear-cut "yes" for Guice as a draft-day selection at this point.
7. David Montgomery (ADP 61, RB28)
A good running back prospect, Montgomery lands on a team with a run-blocking offensive line of quality and potential for an explosive passing game. It also has one of the most underrated runners at the quarterback position in the NFL, which forces opponents to account for the quarterback on running plays in ways they don't have to with stationary field generals.
Montgomery is quicker than fast, agile, creative, versatile, and difficult to bring to the ground. His teammate Mike Davis deserves a similar description, and Davis has a good resume of work in the passing game as both a protector of the quarterback and an outlet receiver.
And when discussing the Bears running backs, you can't just "throw-in" Tarik Cohen to the mix. Cohen is arguably the offensive focal point in change-of-pace clothing. Because of the quality of this depth chart, it's entirely possible that Chicago has a three-headed committee in 2019.
Most expect a team to give a significant number of carries to its first-round pick. It's the Law of Draft Capital, right? Ask Mike Davis what he thought of Rashaad Penny's draft capital last year in Seattle and get back to the Gut Check.
If Chicago opts for a two-headed backfield and Davis is relegated to scraps, Montgomery could have Jordan Howard's 2018 upside as a top-20 fantasy runner. If Montgomery doesn't earn the trust of the coaching staff in the passing game, Davis will easily keep the Bears a three-headed monster.
Verdict: Lot's of folks are concerned that Rashaad Penny takes over the Seattle backfield this year and leaves Chris Carson on the bench. However, the Gut Check would rather have Carson than Montgomery and both are similarly valued at this point.
In PPR leagues, Landry, Boyd, and Williams are more compelling at a similar price. And if you're going to bet on a backfield after the fourth-round, the combo of Carson and Penny is cheaper than Cohen and Montgomery.
The Gut Check has a lot of love for Montgomery's talent, but there's some wait-and-see for his situation that makes him too pricy as we head into July.
6. Cooper Kupp (ADP 47, WR19)
Personally, this is a painful decision because Kupp has long been a Gut Check favorite. When healthy, Kupp is one of the quickest receivers in the league.
He and Robert Woods are the two best route runners on the Rams and Kupp is probably the best against zone coverage. He also has the best rapport with Goff, which also makes him an underrated red zone threat. Last year, yours truly touted Kupp as a potential leader in the red zone and it was becoming a fantasy reality before Kupp tore his ACL.
Kupp is rehabbing at a good pace and without any complications. However, it's the final stages of rehab that are the toughest. It's easy to advance from 30 percent to 80 percent health because an athlete sees those returns.
It's far more difficult to see the final 20 percent—and that final 5-10 percent is really about "feel" and "confidence" in the body part to take risks. The final 5-10 percent requires a psychological shift that's often more difficult to make than the rest of the rehab combined.
This is where Kupp will be during the first five to seven weeks of the regular season—and at a position that relies heavily on the skills that he must feel 100 percent at performing on that reconstructed knee. If he feels confident early on, he could deliver top-15 production at his position for the entire year. If not, it could be an up-and-down campaign.
Verdict: Because the Gut Check feels an emotional tug to take Kupp, it's a good sign that Kupp is, at best, a wait-and-see option for most August fantasy drafts. Chris Godwin, Kenyan Drake, Tyler Lockett, and Calvin Ridley all offer greater value at a similar price.
If Kupp earns significant playing time during the preseason and looks like he's in midseason form, yours truly will amend this verdict. But don't count on it.
5. Phillip Lindsay (ADP 43, RB21)
There are three things holding the Gut Check back from endorsing Lindsay as a pick this early in drafts, despite what appears to be a discount of two to three rounds if looking solely at 2018's production:
- Lindsay's wrist injury is limiting his opportunities to work on his craft and it's the time between the rookie and sophomore year that generate the most growth.
- The Broncos are opting for a zone scheme, which is a better fit for Royce Freeman than last year's offense.
- While appreciating Lindsay's work in 2018, there's value in staying true to a player's evaluation for longer than a season.
Lindsay ran hard between the tackles and his quickness often earned him productive gains in areas of the field where Freeman is, on paper, the better choice. There's also a contingent of analysts and fans that view Freeman as an overrated, sluggish talent.
Freeman excelled as an after-contact option with his limited opportunities last year and from what yours truly saw on tape, he had few issues earning the edge on perimeter runs that are in line with what Denver will use more often in 2019. Now add the context of Freeman nursing a high-ankle sprain, and one can see how Lindsay kept the job.
This is not a knock on Lindsay's skills as much as it is a realistic understanding that high-ankle sprains are one of the worst injuries that a skill-player can incur and not require surgery. Despite optimistic timelines for players with these injuries, a high-ankle sprain can limit a player all year.
A healthy Freeman offers Denver a high-volume option capable of delivering explosive plays. If you read this column often, you know that the NFL defines explosive rushing plays as 12-yard gains. While Lindsay offers more upside as a breakaway runner, Freeman's ability for explosive rushing plays correlates to successful scoring drives.
If both players are healthy to begin the year, look for a split in the workload.
Verdict: Lindsay is a bargain if Freeman gets hurt and can't contribute for weeks at a time. The problem is that the fantasy community doesn't see this as the situation that propelled Lindsay to his 2018 upside. The narrative is that Lindsay outplayed Freeman when the true narrative is that Lindsay outperformed an injured Freeman.
Taking Freeman at the end of the fourth-round is counting on starter production as a fantasy RB2. The Gut Check as Lindsay as a low-end RB3 if Freeman remains healthy, which would have been considered an optimistic but accurate assessment of Lindsay last year if Freeman was healthy.
In years where a team has a committee with a fairly even split, it's usually best to take the cheapest option of the two on the board. Currently, it's Freeman. If you take Lindsay, you're passing up on rock-solid, high-end talents like Robert Woods, Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron Rodgers. You're also passing over quality players with the breakout upside of Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin, and Kenyan Drake.
Lindsay could wind up settling into a big-play changeup role that's still highly productive, but more in line with expectations we have for Tarik Cohen and James White, two options available 10 picks later than Lindsay.
There are too many good options to pine for Lindsay's 2018 magic when his competition is finally healthy, the scheme has changed, and there are less volatile talents available at a similar or greater value.
4. Patrick Mahomes II (ADP30, QB1)
While there are few doubters remaining about Mahomes the quarterback, there's a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg argument surrounding the fantasy value of the 2019 NFL MVP and Offensive Player of the Year now that Kareem Hunt is gone, the offensive line lost a pair of starters, and Tyreek Hill is in limbo. Considering the heights of Mahomes' 2018 production, it's sensible to expect a regression with these losses and an offseason for opposing defenses to study the first-year starter.
Is there a viable argument where Mahomes sustains or improves his production in 2019 despite these losses and an offseason for opponents to study him? Statistically, no, but anecdotally? Absolutely.
My pre-draft comparison for Mahomes was Brett Favre. They're both strong-armed, intuitive quarterbacks with excellent creativity to extend plays despite lacking breakaway running ability. Both successfully straddled the line between daring and reckless.
It's these skills that can help a quarterback deliver a season of production that transcends the collective surrounding talent. Favre did this in 1996 a the No.1 fantasy quarterback when he earned 3,895 yards and 41 total touchdowns without working with a top-15 fantasy receiver.
Antonio Freeman delivered No.16 production at wide receiver and Keith Jackson was the No.4 tight end with 10 touchdowns. The next most productive receiver was 46th-ranked receiver Don Beebe and then it was a collection of Andre Rison, Robert Brooks, Terry Mickens, and Mark Chmura.
Favre leaned on his running backs that year, delivering five touchdowns to Dorsey Levens and two more to William Henderson and Edgar Bennett. Favre repeated his top fantasy billing at the position in 1997 with the No.8 TE in Mark Chmura and the No.2 and No.19 receivers, Antonio Freeman and Robert Brooks.
In 1998, Favre was the No.2 passer with 14 touchdowns and a 2nd-ranked receiver season from Freeman, but no other Packers receiver in the top 50. He leaned more on tight ends Chumura and Tyrone Davis, who accounted for 11 of Favre's 31 touchdowns.
These Packers receivers were good players, but they weren't elite weapons. Favre's ability to buy time often led to second- and third-chance opportunities for his talents. Mahomes offers a similar upside.
When we examine last year's touchdown distribution in Kansas City, 10 players accounted for 21 of Mahomes' 50 passing touchdowns: Demarcus Robinson (4), Chris Conley (5), Demetrius Harris (3), Sammy Watkins (3) Damien Williams (2), Anthony Sherman (1), Charcandrick West (1), De'Anthony Thomas (1), and Darrel Williams (1). None of these players were every-down starters and six of them were reserves.
In contrast, Matt Ryan threw 35 touchdowns and only 8 touchdowns came from contributors and reserves. If you count Mohamed Sanu as a starter, that number drops to 4.
The only other quarterback who comes close to spreading the ball around like Mahomes was Andrew Luck. He delivered 39 passing touchdowns and contributors accounted for 12-15 of those scores, depending on how you classify 2-3 of those players.
Mahomes is a creator and he's confident in finding open players. He'll obviously lean on top options but he's not favoring them to the detriment of the offense. A healthy Sammy Watkins is a Pro Bowl-caliber talent despite the fact that he hasn't been healthy enough to demonstrate it throughout an entire year. Demarcus Robinson's totals should increase if he earns a full-time role in the lineup. The same is true of Mecole Hardman and/or Byron Pringle.
Although difficult to imagine Mahomes earning a second consecutive season with at least 45 passing touchdowns without Hill, if you look at the NFL's rules for the passing game in 1996-98 while evaluating Favre's surrounding talent, you might have thought the same about him earning at least 30 touchdown passes.
Verdict: It's more likely that there will be better values at the position than Mahomes as the 30th player on the board. Luck and Deshaun Watson offer compelling alternatives 14 and 16 picks later even if Mahomes comes close to sustaining last year's value. If Mahomes regresses, there are potential bargains with the surrounding talent to support a rebound to top-five production at much better prices: Dak Prescott, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers come to mind.
Mahomes is a great young player. If Tyreek Hill earns a full month of training camp and preseason action and stays healthy, Mahomes will be worth a thread-the-needle pick in the third round as the top fantasy quarterback. If not, Mahomes is good enough to exceed expectations but do you really want to take that chance when it's more likely you can get equal value much later and opt for rock-solid talent with elite upside at their positions like A.J. Green, Stefon Diggs, Kerryon Johnson, Devonta Freeman, or possibly Amari Cooper or T.Y. Hilton?
It's safe to say that few were as bullish about Mahomes' NFL career as yours truly. However, we're talking about 2019 re-draft leagues. Bypassing Mahomes is the best strategic move.
3. Nick Chubb (ADP 21, RB12)
For the first 8-10 weeks of the season, Chubb will be the focal point of the Browns' ground game and likely a more targeted receiver in the passing game than many expect. Another favorite of this writer, Chubb has skills that rival Ezekiel Elliott. With Odell Beckham requiring a safety's attention on most downs, Chubb will face significantly fewer eight-man boxes in 2019 and as long as the offensive line and quarterback remain healthy, Chubb will exceed his RB12 valuation during the first half of the year.
Prepare for Chubb to be one of the top-five fantasy backs during this span.
However, there Browns' line isn't great, Beckham has a propensity to get dinged and miss multiple games, and when Kareem Hunt returns from his eight-game suspension, why wouldn't the Browns want to relax Chubb's workload and give him a breather for a playoff run? It's a win-win for Cleveland if Hunt can spell Chubb during the final 6-8 weeks (presuming Hunt needs a couple of weeks of conditioning and practice time post-suspension before earning playing time) and perform well enough as a tryout for another team interested in acquiring him from Cleveland in 2020.
If this becomes a committee backfield late in the fantasy season, it's a losing proposition for fantasy players who took Chubb at the end of the second round. Of course, if Chubb is playing lights-out and he's healthy, Hunt could earn no more than a cameo role or a combination of Duke Johnson Jr's and Dontrell Hilliard's touches without hurting Chubb's volume.
This unknown is what could make Chubb a difficult selection for any fantasy player in 2019.
Verdict: The argument for taking Chubb is that top backs often earn a rest late in the year and fantasy players have sufficiently prepared for this inevitability. There's a solid argument for taking Hunt somewhere between rounds 8-10 and hope it solves the potential issue. Looking at the players available in that of Hunt's ADP of 100, only Kyler Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, and Royce Freeman are compelling options. Yours truly would consider the Browns' tandem under these conditions.
The difficult part of this consideration is passing up receivers like Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, Amari Cooper, and T.Y. Hilton. These are high-ceiling, high-floor options. So are Zach Ertz and George Kittle.
We all know that landing two stud running backs can be a game-changer in fantasy leagues. Chubb could be that second guy. If confident in what you can acquire at receiver and tight end later, do it. If your league conditions are better for drafting receivers and finding that second back elsewhere, which most are these days, you might just opt for Hunt (or Freeman) in the ninth round and hope you've landed a stretch-run stud.
2. JuJu Smith-Schuster (ADP15, WR6)
The best fantasy offenses have 3-4 players who force opposing defenses into coverage binds. Pittsburgh had this with Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown during recent seasons. Now it's gone and it's legitimate to wonder if there is another receiver in Pittsburgh capable of commanding that attention that will give Smith-Schuster the same volume of favorable looks that he earned beside Brown?
There should be no argument that Smith-Schuster is a talented receiver. He's a physical player in his routes and after the catch. He can win deep, but he lacks great separation speed and that's where Brown's presence gave Smith-Schuster that big-play upside.
If Diontae Johnson and/or James Washington can burst onto the scene and command this attention during the first 4-6 weeks of the season, Smith-Schuster could have a terrific stretch-run. However, opponents will likely make Johnson and Washington prove their worth before easing off the attention they give Smith-Schuster—attention he hasn't earned in the NFL.
Last year, Smith-Schuster earned 5 receptions resulting in plays of 35 yards or greater for a total 317 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. We could reasonably expand that filter to receptions of at least 16 yards and have a reasonable argument that Brown's skill influenced single coverage or zone coverage of these routes. This would account for another 21 catches, 445 yards, and a touchdown.
Yours truly did not chart these throws to make this an absolute figure, but hypothetically we're looking at a range of 5-26 receptions, 317-762 yards, and 1-2 touchdowns that Brown roughly influenced because his skills demanded additional defensive attention and left Smith-Schuster with matchups he may not see in 2019.
Smith-Schuster earned 111 catches, 1,426 yards, and 7 touchdowns last year as the No.9 fantasy receiver. If we subtract the low and high range of production that hypothetically came from opponents accounting for Brown, we could see a best-case scenario of a continued high volume of catches but a drop in yardage and a slight decrease of touchdowns.
A 106-catch, 1,109-yard, and 6-score season is still a top-20 fantasy season in standard formats and top-12 production in PPR last year. The extreme low-end of this range is 85 catches, 664 yards, and 5 touchdowns.
A 7.8 yards-per-catch average is not a realistic expectation—even 33-year-old Larry Fitzgerald earn 9.7 yards per catch on 101 receptions in 2016 as the Cardinals' big-slot option. Even so, one can see there's a reason to be concerned about the Steelers failing to replace Brown with a proven threat who will command a safety's attention.
Verdict: Smith-Schuster might deliver top-15 production on the basis of his skills and quality play from his teammates but expect a streaky season of highs and lows that can hurt a fantasy team. And it's more likely that Smith-Schuster will deliver low-end, fantasy WR2 to mid-range, fantasy WR3 production at the cost of a mid-range WR1.
Look into the Steelers' use of Smith-Schuster in the slot. If you can make the argument that the scheme used him a lot like Keenan Allen, there Smith-Schuster is only a bit overpriced and still has a decent floor. But until then, inspect that foundation thoroughly because the Gut Check has fears it lacks significant reinforcement.
1. LeVeon Bell (ADP 10, RB7)
Bell's transition is massive. He missed a year. He loses a top-notch offensive line, moves on from a top veteran quarterback, and no longer has two strong receivers forcing gut-wrenching decisions for opposing defenses.
It makes it easy for fantasy analysts to say that Bell is no longer the talent that he used to be. If they meant to say, fantasy producer, that's likely more accurate. If they meant Bell's individual talent, that's a speculative statement, at best.
Isiah Crowell was the Jets' most productive fantasy running back last year (No.35 in PPR formats). If you combine the production of Crowell and his depth chart, the Jets combined for 341.6 fantasy points in PPR leagues. Bell accounted for 82 percent of Pittsburgh's rushing attempts and 86 percent of the Steelers' total touches from the backfield. If we presume he earns that market share again, that's a low-end expectation of 293.7 fantasy points based on last year with a rookie quarterback, injured receivers, and no upgrades to the offensive line.
It would have placed Bell just above James Conner as the No.6 PPR back last year. Obviously, this is projection bordering on speculation. Still, it's rooted in Bell's past workload and the expectation that the Jets will give Bell that kind of volume. Considering that Bell is healthy, still young, and Sam Darnold is a year wiser, it's reasonable to expect moderately more success with the ground game that will give Bell at least a small bump in opportunities from this 293.7-point projection.
It means that if the Jets feed Bell with a similar market share as the Steelers, Bell has a similar floor and slightly lower ceiling as he did in Pittsburgh. He's a borderline top-5 fantasy back.
If the Jets make him a committee back with 65 percent of the market share, Bell's projected points would be 222 and it puts him in 12-15 range of fantasy runners in PPR leagues. This is still decent. Even a drop to 55 percent of the share keeps him inside fantasy RB2 territory.
Verdict: Unless Adam Gase gaslights Bell and Jets fans with less than a 50 percent share of running back touches, look for Bell to earn no worse than mid-range RB2 production. While disappointing for a player drafted as an RB1, it's someone one can live with. Before you cite the nightmare with Miami's backfield, keep in mind that Gase was the offensive coordinator for Matt Forte in 2015 (RB9), C.J. Anderson in 2014 (RB12), and Knowshon Moreno in 2013 (RB5). Jay Ajayi was also RB11 for Gase in 2016, his first year as a head coach. That's five fantasy RB1s in six seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator and with four different backs.
Don't worry so much about Bell. Get him and Mixon and the turn if you want the potential of a fantastic 1-2 punch at the position. If you want to thumb your nose at fantasy analyst land, get Bell and Conner and name your team, "Running Backs Don't Matter, My #$@."
