Some weeks the film notebook is more voluminous than others. This is one of those weeks.
Some of the clips and notes below will help you now but not everything here will dictate immediate action for fantasy players. Still, there's something to be said about monitoring the career development of players so you have an up-to-date and informed narrative about them whenever there's an opportunity for their play to earn fantasy relevance.
The edge you can have as a fantasy player is to ignore old and dusty takes on players. Most of you don't have time to monitor everyone in the league. I do this for a living and I certainly don't. However, I do what I can to keep you up-to-date about how players on and off the collective radar are progressing (or regressing).
Let's dig in...
The Bears are accommodating David Montgomery
Chicago's offense rolled with a lot of shotgun and pistol to begin the year. Although David Montgomery played in these alignments at Iowa State, he wasn't looking like a top prospect in these looks in September and most of October.
As my colleague J. Moyer noted at the Rookie Scouting Portfolio site, Montgomery anticipation and footwork lacked efficiency and he was leaving yardage on the field.
As you might expect, this wasn't an issue isolated to Montgomery's rookie acclimation to the league.
The college game is more forgiving than the NFL, which meant we saw opponents punish Montgomery more often for this behavior. Combine Montgomery's issues with Mitchell Trubisky's difficulty as a decision-maker in a pass-first offense and Chicago's fanbase and has been in as much despair as those with fantasy shares of the Bears' skill players.
Shotgun and some pistol alignments forced linemen to block from pass-oriented sets instead of allowing them to explode off the line. They also limit the running back's choices at the line of scrimmage and when the opposing defense earns penetration, the quarterback's position can cut off an escape route.
Considering the offensive struggles all around in the Windy City, it makes sense for the coaching staff to at least unlock one of its players and the easiest position where that can happen is running back. That key? The I-formation.
What? Bears in 21 like last week? 8 in box? Well, with two DBs...sure! pic.twitter.com/HQhCQeDrap
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 3, 2019
More I formation for David Montgomery and it’s helping pic.twitter.com/241moZHYMB
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 3, 2019
The ancillary benefit was more high-leverage opportunities for Trubisky.
Fred Flintstone look almost earns big pjay for Trubisky to Robinson pic.twitter.com/an5pAJcz2u
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 3, 2019
Although Montgomery's 17-touch, 76-yard profile against the Eagles wasn't overly impressive on the spreadsheets, the Bears tried to go back to its old offense during the first half and Montgomery earned a yard on three carries and two catches for six yards. In the second half, Montgomery earned 39 yards on 11 carries and three of those touches came at the opponents 1, leading to a pair of touchdowns.
Four of Montgomery's touches during the second half resulted in 58 yards. The I-formation allows Montgomery to process information and leverage his skills easier. His footwork doesn't need to always be as tight and efficient from the I-formation and his quarterback under center as it does from pistol and shotgun.
Detroit, New York (Giants), Green Bay, and Kansas City are good matchups for Montgomery as long as the offense continues using him from the I-formation on a consistent basis.
Jalen Richard is "West Coast James White"
Josh Jacobs is the man in Oakland and DeAndre Washington has been earning 5-6 carries per game between Weeks 3-8, including 10 receptions for the year. Thanks to Jacobs' versatility, Jon Gruden's offense has pushed Jalen Richard into the background.
Don't take this as an indictment of Richard's skills as a third-down or committee back. He remains a viable weapon who is no longer as essential to the Raiders offense.
However, when he's called upon, he delivers.
Jalen Richard—“James White West” pic.twitter.com/3HpHzBuZUx
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 4, 2019
Jalen Richard just tracked a dime into his hands. Fine throw by Derek Carr. pic.twitter.com/dpsw1Lu6ON
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 4, 2019
Richard is on a one-year deal. While the odds of him becoming relevant with simply a team change are low, watch where he lands because he's capable of delivering flex production in an offense that uses him as the Patriots used Kevin Faulk, Dion Lewis, and James White. Speaking of White, 2020 will be the final year of his contract.
Speaking of Oakland, Derek Carr is Playing Loose
Recently, a reader asked me if I was surprised if Derek Carr is playing well. Another referenced Carr as one of the NFL's leading quarterbacks against the blitz. On the surface, Carr's play has seemingly countered Mark Schofield and Dwain McFarland's film and data study at the RSP site this summer that showed how pressure was the variable with Carr's Jekyll and Hyde performances.
However, all analysis is inherently deconstructive. And there's a danger with deconstructing the game to an extent that you don't account for the threads that run through it. One of those threads is emotion. When you Deny Emotion, You Only See A Fraction of the Game.
In the case of Carr, he's earned a massive offensive line that road grades its opponents. Trent Brown is a stud, Richie Incognito is an excellent veteran, Kolton Miller has shown dramatic improvement, and a healthy Rodney Hudson is a fine center.
When you have a quality starting five that can support a strong ground game and protect the passer, it relaxes the quarterback. Even if that quarterback has shown a propensity to overreact to pressure in the past, if that line has earned his trust, his tendency to overreact to pressure will diminish when opponents breach the pocket.
Carr hasn't seen his pockets compromised with multiple defenders as often as he has in the past. Occasionally dealing with one or two defenders within actionable range is much different than a steady flow of opponents in Carr's face as soon as he finishes his drop.
It's vital to note that not every quarterback will loosen up and relax after a phase of their career under pressure. Poor line play permanently wrecked Carr's older brother David years ago.
If forced to speculate, I'd say Derek didn't have to spend as much time in the situations we saw his older brother endure. For whatever reason, Derek has been able to withstand the punishment, regain his emotional bearings, and raise his game on the field despite working with a completely new set of receivers.
When you have more time from play-to-play, you play more relaxed when pressure arrives unless you’ve been abused too long and too egregiously. Even then, some people emerge from it ok. Carr appears to be one of them
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 4, 2019
Game winner. pic.twitter.com/gUW5IZOIOL
Carr may only be the 21st-ranked fantasy quarterback at this point of the year but he's 7th in passing touchdowns since Week 4 and has only thrown 1 interception during this span. Give him another year with Darren Waller, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow, and a new weapon who doesn't flake out during camp, and Carr might be a fantasy commodity you can build around for your dynasty squads.
He's a buy-low opportunity for any rebuilding dynasty squad. I never loved Carr as a prospect but I believe in what Jon Gruden is doing in Oakland. When Gruden has acquired strong weapons, his offenses are balanced and yield starter production at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end.
Jamaal Williams is Jordan Howard with better receiving Chops
Aaron Jones is the better runner because when you tally everything between the two runners, Jones's speed and burst give him the edge. However, Williams is a tough, smart, versatile, and high-effort player who will find work when his contract expires in 2021.
I love his balance.
Great job dissipating some of the impact of the second hit with his hips—Jamaal Williams bouncing off three hits for first down. pic.twitter.com/yyZYrS8qgr
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 4, 2019
Williams is a high-end fantasy RB3 in most formats despite earning 70 fewer carries than Jones and missing much of the Eagles game with an injury. Knowing that Jon Gruden and other West Coast acolytes value pass protection, receiving, and running from backs—in that order—Williams will be an asset for quite a few teams. He likely remains a committee option in the future and likely a temporary lead back as a team transitions to a rookie (think Howard).
A.J. Brown is a future star
Run, don't walk, to your phone or computer and hit up your league mate for A.J. Brown if you have a sell-high commodity and can sweeten the pot a bit for Brown's services. He's had his ups and downs that you'd expect from a rookie, but the ups are far more impressive.
Brown manhandles defensive backs off the line. He tears holes through opposing defensive backfields after the catch, and check out his tracking of this target—one of the most difficult types of targets to corral in football.
The ups and downs of rookie AJ Brown. Focus on the up because that’s where the arrow is pointing long term pic.twitter.com/qhRDZylAGi
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 4, 2019
The potential unknown of the Titans quarterback situation is a long-term concern. Ryan Tannehill is on a one-year deal. The Titans could re-sign him as the long-term starter but I wonder if they'll wind up at an impasse where Tannehill demands starter money and the Titans prefer to give him journeymen money and draft a passer this spring.
Regardless of the quarterback situation, Brown's versatility to play all three receiver positions makes him worth the risk. Yes, I've been saying this all summer and early fall, but I believe his emergence is only a matter of time.
Don't look now, but the Texans offense deserves your Praise
Bill O'Brien took a lot of flak for his offenses when arriving in Houston. He may earn it again at some point but I really like what the Texans are doing for Deshaun Watson. Instead of sticking with a vertical game that allowed opponents to pummel Watson, Houston's passing game has taken a conservative turn that's also leveraging option plays.
I've shown Houston's option game last month, but the Texans continue adding wrinkles that mess with opponents that think they're sufficiently prepared. This play didn't work but it was a communication issue away from a touchdown.
Nice wrinkle added to this option look that often goes to the TE for Texans but communication issue with Deshaun Watson and S. Mitchell, Jr. nullifies potential TD pic.twitter.com/qLQ05Dbpsp
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 3, 2019
What also piqued my interest this week with the offense was a back-shoulder route to Kenny Stills at a place on the field that would have usually called for an out.
Instead of the pinpoint timing and strict placement of the out, which plays into the weaknesses of Watson’s game has pinpoint, high velocity perimeter guy, use a short back shoulder route that leverages Watson’s tendency to throw high to sideline in this range. Scheme to strength pic.twitter.com/qxiCjFDX90
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 3, 2019
Watson has limitations as a thrower of the football but it doesn't limit him from being an excellent quarterback and an elite fantasy producer. Of course, if we lived in a football society that considered mobility a must, we would say the same thing about Tom Brady.
Good luck this week, and may all of your bold calls come true.
