There’s football on TV and school is back in session, which means it’s time to take ADP seriously. A lot can and will change between now and the start of the season, but late-round sleeper picks rarely see wild swings barring a major injury or suspension. To keep track of risers and fallers, keep an eye out for ADP risers and fallers updates. You can find our consensus ADP list here, which can be sorted by a variety of different formats and ADP tracking sites.
When targeting late-round wide receivers, we’re looking for these specific qualities:
- Players attached to high-volume passing attacks.
- Players who either have the WR2 role locked up or could after a few weeks.
- Players who could be the WR1 for their team, even if that team is bad (Bills).
- Players that offer weekly flex appeal thanks to deep-threat abilities.
The following wide receivers boast those qualities and could end up being solid WR3 options or better as the season wears on. As far as what “late-round” means, the following list only includes players that have fallen out of the 10th round in 12-team PPR leagues based on our consensus ADP list from August 12, and will be updated as necessary.
Donte Moncrief
The battle between Moncrief and James Washington for WR2 won’t be decided for several weeks. Typically, we could just draft the cheaper guy and hope he stakes his claim to the target pie. That’s not a luxury we’re afforded in this case since Moncrief is currently WR49 and Washington is WR50 and both are being drafted in the 11th round, forcing us to take a stand.
Or maybe it doesn’t matter. The Steelers threw the ball more than any other team last year, ranked second in passing yards, and fifth in passing touchdowns. They fielded four wide receivers on 6.6% of plays (first) and three wide receivers on 69.1% of plays—the 10th-highest rate in the league. It could be that both Moncrief and Washington pay off their price tags.
But if we truly want to lock in the Steelers’ WR2, Moncrief looks like the best choice. He just turned 26 years old (August 6) and has both the experience and skill to hold off a guy who struggled mightily in his rookie season.
Some thoughts from @steelers camp after my visit there Wednesday:
— Dan Graziano (@DanGrazianoESPN) August 8, 2019
1. The young WRs are promising, but Donte Moncrief sounds like the front-runner for WR2 at this point.
2. Rookie LB Devin Bush is impressing the… https://t.co/onpgKNHxgr
Moncrief, of course, has never amounted to the mythical defense-burning wide receiver the fantasy community has always dreamed of. Despite boasting elite metrics that we typically associate with league-winners, Moncrief’s best finish was in 2015 when he ranked 34th in PPR leagues. He then struggled with injuries and is now on his third team in three years. But he was finally healthy last year and quietly produced nearly 700 yards and three touchdowns despite playing on one of the worst offenses in the league. In fact, looking back at the last three seasons, Moncrief has 1) missed time or played through injuries, 2) clearly missed Andrew Luck in 2017 (Jacoby Brissett led the Colts to a 4-12 record and bottom-ranked offense in every stat), and 3) landed on another bottom-ranked offense in 2018 (Jaguars). Fast forward to today, and he’s set up to man the WR2 job with an elite offense that needs to replace the 170 targets Antonio Brown has averaged since 2013. Career numbers are not out of the question.
Anthony Miller
Notable stat for Anthony Miller’s breakout bid... Mitchell Trubisky was far better targeting his slot WRs (9.1 YPA; 103.7 rating; 68% completions) than receivers split out wide (7.0 YPA; 82.4 rating; 62% completions) last year.
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) July 26, 2019
Miller spent 70% of his rookie snaps in the slot.
The problem with the above tweet is that the Bears are a run-first offense that divvies up a small target pie to multiple players. Only seven teams attempted fewer passes and Miller was fifth in the pecking order of targets, claiming only 10.8%. But 11 of the Bears’ passing touchdowns were to slot receivers—a big reason why Miller managed seven scores despite playing only 53.6% of snaps. His snap counts could be explained by a shoulder injury that he says was painfully dislocated “maybe five or six times.” When you consider that with his lack of playing time, the conservative passing attack, and the fact that it was his rookie season, 2018 actually looks quite good on Miller. If he stays healthy, and Trubisky continues to improve (ultimately earning more passing attempts), Miller has a good shot at significantly cutting into both Tarik Cohen’s and Taylor Gabriel’s share of targets (89 and 93 respectively in 2018).
Above all, health is the biggest thing standing in his way of paying off his 13th round ADP. He had a scare at practice with an ankle injury that Nagy says isn’t serious. But he hasn’t practiced since then (as of August 14). That’s a situation worth keeping an eye on. Hopefully, he returns soon and the injury scare causes his ADP to fall for us even more.
Kenny Stills
Outside of Kenyan Drake, who was recently seen in a walking boot, there’s not a single Dolphins’ player being drafted ahead of the 10th round. Their projected starters at wide receiver are going in the 16th round or not at all. Clearly, the 2019 Dolphins make the All-Avoid list in fantasy football.
It doesn’t help that they finished last year with the fewest plays run, second-fewest yards, seventh-fewest points, and failed to produce a reliable fantasy asset outside of Drake. But Stills, despite the Dolphins’ horrid offense, managed to log at least six touchdowns for the third year in a row, ranked second in team targets, second in receiving yards, and hogged 29.4% of team air yards—the 20th highest rate among all wide receivers. His average depth of target was also top-20, and even though his 4.38 40-time is likely a thing of the past, he’s still a reliable deep threat that can line up all over the formation. With Albert Wilson still recovering from a hip injury, Danny Amendola now in Detroit, and Ryan “YOLO” Fitzpatrick coming to town, there’s a good chance Stills becomes a solid flex option every week, even if the Dolphins season-long outlook isn’t comforting. He’s available in the 16th round, and it’s unlikely his ADP climbs much higher.
TreQuan Smith
Let’s run down a quick checklist of notable assets Smith brings to the table:
- He plays for an elite offense with an elite quarterback.
- He has the size and speed to earn the WR2 role in that offense.
- He is a young player poised to make a second-year leap.
- He is practically free in PPR leagues.
Smith’s rookie season was forgettable outside of two huge games during which he converted 16 targets into 13 catches for 268 yards and three touchdowns. Those numbers represent the bulk of his production. He finished the season with only 44 targets, 28 catches, 427 yards, and five touchdowns. But the arrow is pointing up. Smith admitted during the offseason that he struggled to learn the Saints’ complicated system. He is already impressing coaches and beat writers at camp, and if it’s true that he now has a full grasp of the playbook, then he should quickly emerge as the WR2.
Great catch by Saints WR Tre’Quan Smith from Brees in middle of traffic during hurry-up 11-on-11. A different kind of catch than we typically saw from Smith as rookie, when he admittedly struggled a bit to learn multiple positions/nuances. I’ve heard he has progressed with that.
— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) August 12, 2019
That WR2 spot is imperative. The Saints rarely field three or more wide receivers, and even though the passing attack is highly efficient, it’s also low volume. They elected to throw on only 52.4% of plays—the seventh-lowest rate in the league. Between Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ted Ginn Jr, and newly acquired Jared Cook, it’s hard to see where Smith fits in. But we want pieces of this offense, and right now, he has unquestioned upside tied to a heavily discounted price tag. If we believe his comments about learning the offense, he’ll lock in the trust of Drew Brees and could claim a significant share of snaps and targets while occasionally operating as the deep threat. It’s not crazy to think a top-24 finish is in the cards.
Zay Jones
Before you grab a kicker, consider throwing a late-round dart at Jones. He and Josh Allen finally put things together starting in Week 10. From that week on, Jones ranked 22nd in PPR scoring while finding the end zone six times—the second-most touchdowns over that stretch by all wide receivers. He completed the season with a team-high 102 targets (26th among wide receivers), claimed 16.7% red zone opportunities (eighth among wide receivers), and a decent 46th place finish in PPR leagues (35th if you count Week 17). Those numbers were possible despite a Bills’ offense that threw the ball at the fifth-lowest rate in the league and despite a quarterback that completed only 52.8% of his throws.
The Bills obviously need Allen to improve. But the good news, at least for fantasy GMs, is that he attempted deep throws at a higher rate than any other quarterback. His completion percentage on those throws was, of course, awful. But Jones has the deep speed and size to take advantage of almost any cornerback. He saw more deep passes last year than all but 10 other players, turning five of those targets into touchdowns—the third most. Jones should once again lead the team in targets, both traditional and deep, and if he and his quarterback (who hopefully takes a step forward) pick up where they left off, it stands the reason that he offers a much higher floor than last year with a dreamy ceiling to match it.
