There’s football on TV and school is back in session, which means it’s time to take ADP seriously. A lot can and will change between now and the start of the season, but late-round sleeper picks rarely see wild swings barring a major injury or suspension. To keep track of risers and fallers, keep an eye out for ADP risers and fallers updates. You can find our consensus ADP list here, which can be sorted by a variety of different formats and ADP tracking sites.
When targeting late-round running backs, there are two specific criteria we aim for: players who will immediately inherit RB1 duties in the case of an injury, and players who could either climb to the top of the depth chart as the season carries on or offer top upside thanks to their receiving ability and fertile offenses. The following five backs (plus an honorable mention!) meet those criteria.
As far as what “late-round” means, the following list only includes players that have fallen out of the 10th round in 12-team PPR leagues based on our consensus ADP list from August 12, and will be updated as necessary.
Matt Breida
There are two major concerns with Breida. The most obvious is his ability to stay healthy. He battled through injuries last year and rarely avoided the questionable tag, making him a major risk every single week. He ended up missing two full games and missed multiple snaps in others due to injury.
The second major concern is the 49ers’ crowded backfield. They signed Tevin Coleman during the offseason, reuniting him with Kyle Shanahan to presumably become the RB1, while Jerick McKinnon offers an electric change-of-pace option. That leaves little clarity for Breida’s role. However, there’s a chance McKinnon misses the start of the season:
RB Jerick McKinnon (knee) is having a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) treatment. He’ll have two weeks to recover, then 18 days after that before Week 1 of the regular season. “If he’s ready, that would be great,” #49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said. “If not, we’ll be patient with him.”
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoNBCS) August 8, 2019
In-house injury expert Jene Bramel noted that PRP treatment is often used to combat arthritis symptoms (which is common post-ACL surgeries if associated with meniscus or cartilage injury). Furthermore, Matt Borrows added this when projecting the 49ers’ 53-man roster:
“The 49ers are trying to get McKinnon’s knee back to normal and are giving him plenty of encouragement and incentive during training camp. However, they seem to be drifting steadily toward this conclusion: McKinnon might not be ready to contribute at the start of the season.”
Barrows went on to say that there’s a chance McKinnon lands on injured reserve, which means he’ll miss the first eight weeks of the season. In that scenario, Breida offers immediate value, even in a timeshare. When healthy, he looks every bit like the kind of back Shanahan wants to feature. Breida managed 1,075 total yards in 2018—the 21st most of all running backs—despite missing time and handling only 36.2% of the team carries. He averaged six yards-per-touch and led the team in both opportunity percentage (carries + targets) and red zone touches. He may not have the build to withstand a typical workhorse role, but he has the skill to steal the lead from Coleman in whatever timeshare the 49ers run.
Duke Johnson Jr
Free at last! Johnson has always been a fantasy football darling whose role deserved to grow. That might finally happen in Houston, where he’ll immediately become their third-down, no-huddle back and should earn plenty of work in goal-to-go situations. The Texans sent over a conditional third-round pick to acquire him, suggesting they have every intention of utilizing his explosive skill set. Head Coach Bill O’Brien already has a vision for him:
“Duke’s a first-, second-, third-down running back, he’s played on special teams… Good in the running game, good in the passing game, good professional. Really excited to have him on board and just really look forward to working with him.”
The landing spot couldn’t have been much better. The Texans run an up-tempo offense that ranked ninth in pace and seventh offensive plays last year. They ranked fourth in rushing attempts and eighth in rushing yards thanks to O’Brien’s spread offense that utilizes spread-style concepts with plenty of run-pass options and play action. Those concepts allowed Lamar Miller to rank 12th in rushing yards and 18th in total yards among running backs last year. He’ll begin the season as the team’s lead back but will most certainly lose snaps to Johnson, who, according to Scott Barrett at Pro Football Focus, ranked top-two in receiving missed tackles forced in three of the past four seasons.
Justice Hill
Even though it’s possible that Mark Ingram produces career numbers in 2019, it’s also possible that Hill earns a significant amount of snaps. As noted in his player summary, Hill usurped Chris Carson in college, which looks even more impressive after witnessing what Carson has done in the NFL. Even if Hill doesn’t bump Ingram off the top spot (who has age and a history of injuries working against him), Hill’s speed, burst, and receiving abilities make him an attractive option in an offense that was top-five in pace last year and ran the ball more than any other team.
Of course, his floor dangerously low. Despite a massive offensive pie, the Ravens could split the workload three ways based on down and distance, with Ingram leading in touches, Hill changing pace, and Gus Edwards playing the goal-line vulture role. And even if Ingram misses time for any reason, there’s no guarantee Hill becomes the lead back due to his lack of experience and small stature. But his cost is low enough to take a swing at his upside, which includes becoming the Ravens’ version of Tarik Cohen or Darren Sproles thanks to his ability to do this:
#Ravens RB Justice Hill has some juice in his legs. pic.twitter.com/TJbsfW4ORD
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) August 9, 2019
Mike Davis
With Jordan Howard out of the picture, it looked like Davis landed in a great spot after a career year in Seattle, but then the Bears went and traded up to draft David Montgomery in Round 3. That move casts doubt on whether Davis will inherit the Howard role. At the very least, he has proven capable of being a three-down back thanks to his abilities as a runner, receiver, and pass blocker.
What did the Bears see in Mike Davis ? Film says a guy who is willing and capable of doing a little of everything. Here he is on inside zone putting his foot in the ground and getting some tough yards . pic.twitter.com/Ex49jDmhvF
— Olin kreutz (@olin_kreutz) March 15, 2019
Whichever back does earn the role opposite Tarik Cohen has a great chance of producing solid fantasy numbers. Last year, Howard claimed 53.5% of the Bears’ rushing attempts—the ninth-highest rate of all running backs—and logged the sixth-most carries and 14th-most red zone opportunities. Those numbers allowed him to finish the season as RB22 in standard leagues and RB25 in PPR leagues. Cohen will continue to be the receiving back in this offense, but Davis is better than Howard in that category, which means he won’t always leave the field on passing downs. And regardless of target share, the Bears ran the ball more than all but five other teams last year and generated the 14th-most offensive plays despite ranking near the bottom in pace of play.
Keeping track of how things shake out during the preseason will be key to this situation. If Montgomery struggles with pass protection and learning Matt Nagy’s system, it stands to reason that Davis will begin the season as the Bears’ RB1. If he earns even 75% of Howard’s role, he’ll easily pay off his ADP, which currently rests in the 16th round or later. All of this deserves the caveat that Montgomery could improve as the season wears on and grab the lead spot, but until then, we should be targeting Davis in every format.
Malcolm Brown
Perhaps we should listen when coaches say that they intend to use Darrell Henderson like Alvin Kamara. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t draft Brown, whose ADP is lower than most kickers.
The Rams provide fertile grounds for running backs; that much we know and can count on for 2019. They ranked eighth in rushing attempts last year and second in rushing touchdowns. Over the last two years, only two teams have logged more goal-line rushes. While chasing touchdowns is a fool’s errand, it’s where Brown will succeed in this offense if Todd Gurley’s knee problems keep him off the field. Brown has the size and strength to dominate at the line of scrimmage and will be the most likely option in goal-to-go situations. What he lacks in speed he makes up for in agility and certainly has a much better skillset than C.J. Anderson, who turned 89 carries into 488 yards and four touchdowns from Week 16 to the Super Bowl last year.
On that note, the reason Anderson was even signed by the Rams was that Brown landed on IR. They elected to let Anderson walk and instead matched the Lions’ offer sheet for Brown to retain him. That says a lot about how they value him, and even though Henderson may be the future, Brown has the immediate affection of his coaches and could be the main guy if the Gurley situation turns sour. It doesn’t hurt to scoop him up in the final round of your draft.
Honorable Mention: Darwin Thompson
#Chiefs RB Depth Chart
— Chris Raybon (@ChrisRaybon) August 11, 2019
RB1: Never topped 73 touches in 5 seasons, already missed part of camp with an injury
RB2: Catch-averse grinder entering age-29 season on 4th team in 3 years
RB3: Darwin Thompson pic.twitter.com/g99SNH9nqo
While Thompson did look smoother than a horse on skates in the above play, we need to rein in our optimism and remain logical. It was the first preseason game, which is meaningless. Not so meaningless is Thompson’s place on the depth chart based on usage during practice:
Based on playing time, it seems like the top 4 RBs for the #Chiefs are:
— Brandon Kiley (@BKSportsTalk) August 12, 2019
1) Damien Williams
2) Carlos Hyde
3) Darrel Williams
4) Darwin Thompson
Damien‘s been getting the majority of the #1 reps. Hyde getting a few. Darrel got a couple. Darwin working almost exclusively w/ 3’s.
He has the skill to become the default passing-down back in this offense. And we definitely want the passing-down back from this offense. But that probably won’t happen immediately, and even though the sample size of Damien Williams’ production is tiny, he stands the best chance of earning the RB1 title to open the season. Still, with all of those caveats filed, Thompson offers the exact type of upside, homerun swing fantasy GMs should take in the twilight rounds. On the off chance that he earns the 40 of a 60/40 split, or forces a 50/50, he’ll return RB2 numbers at the very least with potential for much more.
