Welcome to this week's roundtable, where our fearless panel of fantasy pundits make bold predictions for Week 15, share their toughest fantasy calls for the weekend, discuss potential subs from the bottom of the waiver wire barrel, and discuss what they wish they knew in August about this season.
With this in mind, let's examine what we think about these topics as we head into Week 15:
Let's roll...
Wild Week 15 Fantasy predictions
Matt Waldman: Give us a Week 15 fantasy prediction that doesn't match the current trends or observations about a player, a unit, or a team that will have implications for fantasy lineups.
Daniel Simpkins: Despite limited usage for most of the year, the switch has been flipped for Todd Gurley, just in time for the fantasy playoffs—his 23-carry and 4-target weekend was his second-highest usage total of the year. It's reflective of the desperate situation the Rams find themselves in while fighting for a wildcard spot.
Every win is going to matter and they have no choice but to use arguably their best player on the team, despite their wishes to save him for the playoffs. It was painful dragging your team to the fantasy playoffs with Gurley, but if you somehow managed, I believe you’ll be rewarded handsomely if you lean on him now.
There are still experts who haven’t accepted the fact that Gurley is awakening and they will advise you to break ties in favor of other players. I believe you need to be playing Gurley unless you have a situation where you are loaded with Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Aaron Jones and can’t find a place in your lineup for Gurley. That’s not a situation many are in.
Jason Wood: Dallas is going to get right against the Rams. I realize the drumbeats are pounding for Jason Garrett's professional head, and the Rams appear to have righted the ship after their own shaky run, but I suspect Dallas will look their best this week and re-establish their position as a playoff-caliber team.
If I'm right, Ezekiel Elliott will get back on the 100-yard rushing train, and Prescott will outscore a bunch of higher-ranked quarterbacks who are banged up like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes II.
Andy Hicks: Getting in early on players that just look the part and perform well immediately in their careers is usually a strong risk/reward play. Anyone still alive in Week 15 is going to need to have nerves of steel to play Drew Lock against the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The Chiefs defense has been average against the pass, but in the last two weeks since Lock started the Denver team have rallied to impressive wins against the Chargers and Texans.
Only two of their eight losses have been blowouts and several defeats were heartbreakers. With Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen playing poorly the Broncos struggled in all phases. Under Lock, Denver looks like a good team. We will know more after Sunday, but Lock looks like a great risk/reward play if your other options like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan or Jared Goff have poor matchups this week.
Waldman: I agree with you about the Chiefs' defense. I think they will effectively blitz Denver, force Lock into hasty decisions against well-disguised coverages. Kansas City has done a strong job of disguising its looks in recent weeks because the secondary has improved its communication and understanding of its coach's concepts. I thought Lock would do well against Houston but this weekend is his first test.
Mark Schofield: It is time for a bit of a confession.
I am a dirty, filthy, disgusting Patriots fan.
Waldman: Oh man, this is gonna get ugly...
Schofield: Now, obviously the defending Super Bowl Champions are in the news again this week, not so much for their poor offensive performances of late but rather for what is being labeled as Spygate 2.0. With news of the Patriots again skirting the boundaries of the rulebook and 31 fanbases clamoring for Roger Goodell to drop the hammer, times are fun in and around New England.
It almost allows you to forget how bad their offense has been playing...
But here's the thing. Rather than defend the indefensible it's time to lean in a bit. The Patriots get a chance to have the "get right" game of all get right games, against the Cincinnati Bengals this weekend. Quarterbacks and running backs, in particular, are having a great deal of success against them this year, with quarterbacks posting an average of 19.9 points per game against the Bengals, and running backs posted an average of 21.6 PPG against them this year. It sounds terrifying, but Tom Brady and Sony Michel might be a big factor this week.
Justin Howe: New light appears to be dawning for Joe Mixon just as we reach the postseason. Don’t look now, but dating back to Week 8, only three backs (Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb) have put up more scrimmage yards than Mixon.
Last week, Mixon ran wild with Andy Dalton back to (somewhat) stabilize the Bengals offense, racking up 186 yards and finding the end zone – and he should’ve been given another goal-line opportunity late. He still runs behind one of the league’s worst lines, of course, and his weekly floor is below that of most of his peers.
But we’re finally seeing one of the game’s most gifted runners overcome his offense’s warts consistently – and with big week-to-week upside.
Tough Calls: Week 15
Waldman: Tell us about tough lineup choices you're facing this week and where you're leaning and why.
Howe: Hoo boy. Well, I hard-charged late into the playoffs in one of our Footballguys leagues, and I’ve got a flex-spot quandary on my hands. This league awards 1.5 PPR to tight ends, so Austin Hooper is in the mix for my final flex slot. I’m essentially deciding among Hooper, Devin Singletary, and Kareem Hunt there, and I’m pulling my hair out.
Normally, I’d plug in the TE1 and enjoy the fruits of this scoring system. After all, just a slightly above-average day (say, 5 catches for 65 yards) becomes a big deal in this format. That’s the equivalent of a wide receiver putting up 5 for 90, and there’s the obvious upside of Hooper finishing as the week’s overall TE1.
But in a neutral situation, I want to go with a lead running back that offers a slam-dunk volume outlook. That means Singletary, whose matchup isn’t good but drew 24 touches last week. But throwing in a wrench is Hunt, who doesn’t see as many snaps but faces a dream matchup. The Cardinals have allowed 7 different backs to add 7+ PPR points through the air, and Hunt is chiming in 8.8 per game himself.
When it’s all said and done, it’ll almost certainly be Singletary. I don’t think Hooper or Hunt boasts the raw ceilings to unseat a (likely) bell-cow runner.
Settle: My biggest struggle right now is what to do with Lamar Jackson. I know that sounds like a great problem to have but this week has me stumped. The playoffs in this league run two weeks and I have dug a 40-point hole that can still be climbed out of, but Jackson is banged up this week in a matchup that he should dominate.
I need every possible point I can get out of him Thursday Night and his high ceiling of potential has me holding steady and starting him. I run the risk of him being shut down early because of the injury and have to hope that the Jets can keep them close for as long as possible. The Ravens are still playing for playoff seeding and Jackson needs to make a late push to solidify an MVP season.
Schofield: When I was a younger version of myself, I found that despite playing the quarterback position in organized settings, whenever I got together with my buddies and played pickup ball I could not play quarterback. I just was not good in a free-flowing atmosphere like that.
Now that I write about the quarterback position professionally, I always struggle with handling the quarterback spot in fantasy leagues. My work often clouds my judgment.
In my two big leagues, I'm in the semi-finals of each. On one team my options at quarterback are Kyler Murray (who has struggled the past two weeks coming out of Arizona's bye week) and Jacoby Brissett.
In the other? I'm deciding between Jameis Winston and Ryan Tannehill, who I just added off waivers. No, there are no open spots in this league that I know of for next season.
Waldman: As someone in our Footballguys Staff League who added Tannehill eight weeks ago, I was about to ask...
Schofield: I am struggling with both decisions. Winston gets to go up against a Detroit Lions secondary that is really bad and has made Mitchell Trubisky look serviceable recently. But Tannehill has been playing lights-out the past few weeks, and the Texans' defense is not that great either.
As for the Murray/Brissett decision, how much are we reading into this late-season swoon by the rookie QB? Can my mind and soul take waiting until Monday night and Brissett on the road against the Saints, who are coming off a huge loss and are out for blood?
In the end, I'll probably roll with the players that got me here: Winston and Murray. Fantasy football makes us do crazy things...
Hicks: In the staff Dynasty League, I am playing Wood this week and am having a tough decision on whether to play two or three running backs and which backs to play. Ezekiel Elliott is an easy choice, so no issue there. The decision comes from which of David Johnson, Kenyan Drake, Raheem Mostert, and Bo Scarbrough to play.
Wood: Do you want my advice?
Hicks: No...
The flex choice of a third running back has to be played against wide receivers like Marquise Brown, Kendrick Bourne, JuJu Smith-Schuster and a Tight End like Vance McDonald. I cannot trust McDonald after he got a concussion early against the Cardinals.
Bourne, Brown, and Smith-Schuster are a tough sell each for a different reason. The choice basically comes from which two of the running backs I want to play opposite Elliott. My gut is telling me to play both David Johnson and Drake against the Browns. Then again Mostert has been red hot over the last three weeks. The presence of both Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman means that the hot hand is likely to see more time. This will be a lineup decision that goes right to the wire with all available information evaluated.
Wood: One of the reasons it's been a great season, so far, is grabbing Lamar Jackson in nearly every league. He's been the NFL MVP thus far, and arguably the fantasy MVP. The Ravens play Thursday night, which makes his current thigh injury worrisome.
Will the Ravens put him on the field if he's not 100 percent? Can we count on him running well, which is vital to his fantasy value? It's hard to fathom benching Jackson if he's active unless you happen to have Patrick Mahomes II or someone else as your other quarterback. That's a choice I'm facing in nearly every semi-final.
Another situation I'm facing -- as I suspect many are -- is who to slot into my WR3 slot in many leagues. Calvin Ridley's injury means I'm looking at some combination of Robby Anderson, Michael Gallup, Tyler Boyd, Deebo Samuel, and DK Metcalf for my WR3 and possible flex.
Simpkins: I’m in several dynasty leagues where I have drafted A.J. Brown for the future, but will have to decide whether or not to start him over guys like Christian Kirk, James Washington, and others in the semifinals and championship rounds. The Titans offense is red hot right now, but I worry that Tennessee might go back to targeting him less, as they did earlier in the year.
Even as a fan of the team, I am not very trusting when it comes to Arthur Smith’s play calling. Smith should have been leaning more on Brown after his outburst in the Falcons game, but it took him a while to realize that more than two or three targets a game for Brown was a good idea.
Waldman: All of you have easy problems.
Wood: Ok Wildman, then what do you have?
Waldman: I'm defending champion in an IDP dynasty league. If I could start multiple quarterbacks, I'd be a repeat champion because I have Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes II, Lamar Jackson, and Jared Goff. However, in this league, I can only start one quarterback 1-2 running backs, 3 receivers, and 1-2 tight ends and most of my receivers are hurt: Adam Thielen, Preston Williams, Marvin Jones, and T.Y. Hilton.
I squeezed out a first-round victory thanks to my defensive unit. This week I have to choose from the following receivers to fill two spots in my starting lineup alongside Michael Thomas: Miles Boykin, Deon Cain, Pharoh Cooper, Isaiah Ford, Paul Richardson Jr, and Olamide Zaccheaus.
I added Cooper, Ford, and Zacchaeus over the past two weeks hoping I only needed to pick one. Now I have to role with two. I'm likely going with Ford and Zaccheaus but Cain has appeal as well.
PLayoff Subs
Waldman: Which of these players might be worth an add and start from the waiver in formats with 3-4 flexes. In addition, which ones could be worth a flex or starting spot in a format with smaller lineup allotments?
Address at least one of these players but feel free to name 2-3 total.
- Kerrith Whyte
- Boston Scott
- Olamide Zaccheaus
- Greg Ward
- Bilal Powell
- C.J. Prosise
- Alex Erickson
- Keelan Cole
- Spencer Ware
- Marcus Johnson
- Isaiah Ford
- Patrick Laird
Who are your choices?
Simpkins: Kerrith Whyte is someone I did not know much about until this past week, but wow, did he have much better burst than Benny Snell. I think he could be quite interesting in formats in which we have to start a bunch of flexes in addition to starters.
He’s also someone to monitor for dynasty purposes because of Jaylen Samuels being in the coaching doghouse and Benny Snell not really having the physical tools to get more yardage than whatever his blockers can provide. I could see him working his way into a primary backup role behind James Conner.
Wood: Ward was literally the only healthy receiver on the Eagles roster in the fourth quarter against the Giants. A former member of the practice squad, Ward showed enough to make the active roster and force former 2nd-rounder Mack Hollins off of it. Ward is nothing special. But he's healthy, understands the playbook, and is a hard worker. He seems assured a role against Washington in Week 15 and is a lottery ticket upside play in very deep leagues.
Laird is a legitimate option in single-flex leagues given his stranglehold on the job and an advantageous matchup against the Giants. He's not creative or going to make any jaw-dropping plays, but he's tough, follows his blockers, and is an able receiver.
Hicks: So many of these players are total crapshoots.
Waldman: You playing in that league with Schofield, don't you?
Hicks: Don't start with me...
Waldman: Ha! Go ahead.
Hicks: Whyte will have Conner likely to come back this week and his performance was against the Cardinals. Buffalo is an entirely different matchup. Boston Scott and Bilal Powell were likely one-week wonders. Marcus Johnson, Isaiah Ford, and Olamide Zaccheaus, well I think you would be crazy to consider them, but crazy can win leagues.
Waldman: I may be just the lunatic you're looking for...
Hicks: Like Jason, I’m probably landing on the players most likely to see reliable quality playing time in Patrick Laird and Greg Ward for the same reasons Jason gave.
Schofield: I'll go in on the Boston Scott hype train.
Waldman: Yes!
Schofield: The Eagles pulled out a comeback victory in a must-win game by getting ba ck to their roots as an offense. In the first half against the New York Giants, they wanted to be a vertical passing team, and whether due to weather, protection problems, a lack of execution or a mix of the above, they got away from that in the second half. Their offense became more horizontal in the passing game and featured the running back more often.
That lesson will translate for this offense going forward. Pair that with lingering injuries to Jordan Howard and a new injury to Miles Sanders, and Scott is going to get opportunities. Every game remaining for Philadelphia is critical, and they're going to stick with what they do best as an offense.
Jeff Pasquino: Not my week, but put me down for Boston Scott, too.
The Eagles are being held together with duct tape right now. They finished Monday Night Football with just one wide receiver - Nelson Agholor was inactive, Alshon Jeffery (foot) left in the first half and then JJAW had to leave - which left just Greg Ward. Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, and Greg Ward cannot carry that team, nor can Miles Sanders play every down. Scott was not just a breath of fresh air, but he was a necessary part of the offense that sparked the comeback. He will be part of the offense going forward because they have next to nothing else in the cupboard to put on the field.
Settle: If I had 3-4 Flex spots I would be looking squarely at Boston Scott. He was the catalyst for the Eagles on Monday Night and provided a spark that should give him more opportunities down the stretch. Philadelphia seems to have no interest in a banged-up Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders cannot do everything.
Jay Ajayi also adds nothing to this lineup right now and Boston looked impressive in the second half. With multiple flex spots and a PPR league, I would take a serious look at Scott.
If we are dealing with a more traditional lineup structure, I would consider Patrick Laird. The Dolphins seem to not care at all about their draft position and have been trying to win games in recent weeks.
They have two great matchups this week and next in the Giants and Bengals before ending the season against a Patriots team that may be limping into the playoffs. Laird is a great choice in PPR leagues as there is no competition in the backfield and DeVante Parker left with a concussion last week. That offense will have to throw the ball to someone, and he is a great bet.
Howe: Boston Scott has to head this list. He impressed mightily last week in Miles Sanders’ place, and he plays a position at which it’s tough to find worthwhile contributors for emergencies this late in the season. Eagles receivers are dropping like flies, to the point that Josh McCown was nearly called to action there last Sunday. And Carson Wentz isn’t really throwing the deep ball much anyway; his downfield metrics have plummeted, and he’s using his backs more often than he did last year. Scott caught all 6 of his targets last week.
Of course, all of that applies even more so to Greg Ward, who could spend the rest of the season as the Eagles’ No. 1 wideout. He’s an average talent at best but could put up a 10-target game or two to close out the year. JJ Arcega-Whiteside was barely involved last week with both Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor out, while Ward drew nine looks. He only produced 34 yards with them and dropped a touchdown, but there’s just not much volume like this floating on the wire.
Fantasy Time Machine
Matt Waldman: If you could take what you know now and apply it to your 2018 fantasy drafts, what would you do differently?
Howe: “Justin, bad teams don’t produce elite fantasy options very often. Solid ones, sometimes, but rarely great ones. Situation matters more than talent. You know that. Don’t rely too heavily on gifted guys to rise above their situation. Billy, don’t be a hero.”
Simply put: I went pretty deep into Joe Mixon, and Evan Engram in my seasonal leagues, even though I expected all of their teams to be as crappy as they’ve wound up. They’re all gifted guys I absolutely believe in, but situation and opportunity (almost) always win. Mixon, for example, has had his moments, but he simply hasn’t been able to overcome that line and that offense at his Round 2 pedigree. His Bengals often have to stop running early, and he doesn’t see much touchdown opportunity. There are reasons to love a guy like Mixon, but I should’ve tempered my enthusiasm just a bit.
Settle: I made a mistake drafting and it is almost hard to admit. I felt like I was gifted Julio Jones with the 11th pick and thought that he was ready to prove everyone why he got the contract he did.
I had crazy aspirations of a 2,000-yard season and maybe 10 touchdowns. Since I was so high on Jones, I thought it logical to take Matt Ryan and reap the same benefits, and then even took it a step further thinking that this crazy success for Jones would open things up for Devonta Freeman.
So, first, the idea of stacking 3 players from the same team was a terrible idea and then going against what I knew about that Atlanta team, to begin with. I chased combinations of points and tried to create a perfect storm and for that, I am ashamed of that draft.
Waldman: Brutal. However, I thought the Falcons line would be fine and Freeman would rebound. So, cheers...
Draft backs behind offensive lines that are healthy and playing well.
Pasquino: Stick to players I liked on offenses I liked, regardless of ADP. I wound up with LeVeon Bell even though I did not want any part of him or the Jets because he "fell to me." Big mistake.
Stick to players you like and draft them when you can, where you can. Come October and later, it really doesn't matter what round you got any player, as long as you avoided the ones you really didn't want. Perceived values in a draft are often just traps waiting to be sprung upon you, saddling you with bad options all season long.
Schofield: Talk yourself out of Jameis Winston. Do what you can to grab Lamar Jackson.
As you can tell I did not take my own advice...really it is a wonder anyone listens to me at all.
Waldman: You cook a mean Italian stuffing, though...
Scofield: Thanks, buddy.
Hicks: For the quarterback, it’s quite simple, take Lamar Jackson. At running back Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler. At wide receiver Chris Godwin and Cooper Kupp and at Tight End Darren Waller and Mark Andrews. All of these players were available at good prices and would have complemented any well-performed players in the first three rounds.
I already had D.J. Chark and Courtland Sutton way above anyone else on staff, but listening to other staff members on all the players I missed, and every single one had strong backers on staff is a regret. There are many and varied reasons why higher draft picks bust, but injury aside a lot are predictable revolving around changing environments like a new team, new offense, and new coaching staff. Undervalued players can be found for exactly the same reason.
Wood: I would swap Christian McCaffrey to 1.01 over Saquon Barkley, that's for sure. I wouldn't have bet on the combination of Royce Freeman, Derrius Guice, and Sony Michel as my RB3. I would've used late-round picks on Deebo Samuel, Darius Slayton, and Terry McLaurin instead of Dante Pettis, KeeSean Johnson, and James Washington. I wouldn't have included T.J. Hockenson in my bucket of late-round tight ends alongside Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, and Jason Witten.
Simpkins: Looking back, I wish I would have been more bearish on Royce Freeman. I thought that, despite heading into a situation that was less than ideal, he would have the talent to overcome. I did not see Phillip Lindsay coming. I did not account for regime and scheme changes that might be detrimental to his development. While I think Freeman still can be a fine back, I no longer believe a workhorse role is in store for him on this team.
