Welcome to this week's roundtable, where our fearless panel of fantasy pundits dive into fantasy playoff strategies, rookies of interest who haven't earned much playing time or production, a longstanding question on Lamar Jackson, and which NFL players they think are overrated.
With this in mind, let's examine what we think about these topics as we head into Week 12:
- Rookies of Interest Who Haven't Earned Extensive Playing Time
- Revisiting Lamar Jackson
- Preparing for the Fantasy Playoffs
- Overrated NFL Players
Let's roll...
Rookies of INterest Who Haven't EArned Extensive Playing Time
Matt Waldman: Name a rookie who hasn't earned much playing time this year that you can't wait to see when he finally sees the field for an extended length of time. Why are you excited about him?
Jason Wood: Do I have to name just one? In that case, it's Darwin Thompson. We fantasy analysts were certainly too optimistic about Thompson's chances at making an impact in 2019, as coach Andy Reid has gone with a litany of veterans instead of trying Thompson out in a large role. But the tape doesn't lie and Thompson has the skill set to be a productive three-down back, particularly playing in an elite offense led by Patrick Mahomes II.
Other rookies I think can still make an impact in 2020 and beyond are Trayveon Williams in Cincinnati, Ryquell Armstead in Jacksonville, Justice Hill in Baltimore, Miles Boykin in Baltimore, and KeeSean Johnson in Arizona.
Jeff Pasquino: Jason put out a pretty solid list here, and it is fair to say that a good number of higher-profile rookies have already seen significant playing time this season. KeeSean Johnson and Miles Boykin are still lesser-known quantities, and more opportunities with their young quarterbacks would be nice to see. One other player I would like to throw out there is TE Irv Smith in Minnesota. He has been getting more run of late with Adam Thielen sidelined (24 targets for Smith over the past five weeks), but Kyle Rudolph has also stepped up lately including the key touchdown against Denver last week. Rudolph just signed a four-year contract in June, so it will be interesting to see what happens with Smith. Tight end is a sore spot in fantasy, so finding any possible gems for the future is worth watching for in the second half of the season.
Mark Wimer: Following the advice of Matt's Rookie Scouting Portfolio I landed Miles Boykin in a lot of leagues. In some leagues, I managed to get both Boykin and Marquise Brown. As Jason and Jeff states, KeeSean Jackson and Miles Boykin are still lesser-known quantities, and more opportunities with their young quarterbacks would be nice to see. I would like to see Boykin get more involved here in the latter half of the season—the Ravens are really well stocked with youthful talent at wide receiver and Lamar Jackson has been terrific this season (more on that below). I was excited by the way Preston Williams (MIA) was shaping up in the first half of the season (60 targets for 32 receptions yielding 428 yards and three TDs). I'm hoping he'll be able to fully recover from the knee injury that landed him on IR at mid-season, and that we'll see much more of him in future seasons.
Waldman: I am beginning to have concerns about Boykin's fit in Baltimore because the strength of his game is perimeter routes that aren't necessary Jackson's forte. I have no doubts about Boykin's talent.
Drew Davenport: The guys have put up quite a few names I like, but the one I've been intrigued by lately is Andy Isabella. I'm not sure if I'd be as interested in another location, but in Arizona, I am excited to see what he can do. There has to be a reason that he hasn't earned more snaps to this point in the year, but watching his ability with the ball in his hands has been fun the past few weeks. He had an uneven performance this past week, but it was encouraging to see a season-high four targets nonetheless. His short term viability isn't great with his snap counts hovering in the 30 percent range, but I'm keeping an eye on that for a spike. Either way, Isabella has my attention.
Mark Schofield: This may come off as a complete homer answer but both of the New England rookie wide receivers, N'Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers.
Now we can be honest, the Patriots' passing game is off-kilter at this point, but both have promise. Harry is finally back in the lineup after an extended injury and while he saw a small number of targets, he was able to work himself open on more than a few occasions against the Eagles, so I believe that more targets will be coming his way down the stretch. He can give the Patriots some of what they lost with the retirement of Rob Gronkowski, as a big target out of the slot and up the seams.
Meyers is a fascinating player to watch. As a former quarterback, he has a great understanding of timing and rhythm in the passing game and is slowly learning the nuances of route-running. He has already worked himself into the Tom Brady Circle of Trust. Both players might be big factors for this offense down the stretch.
Jeff Haseley: I was impressed with Justice Hill in the preseason. I saw his skill set as more than just a third-round change of pace back. He showed excellent hands, which wasn’t a surprise, but he showed a nose for extra yards, including the end zone. I am excited to see him get more opportunities in the regular season to see if he exhibits the same skills that were present in the preseason.
Jeff Haseley: Russell Wilson likes to utilize his tight ends. He elevated the game of Will Dissly earlier in the season, and he's doing the same for Jacob Hollister. Seattle tight ends have 22 receptions since Week 6 (Dissly injury) and Hollister has 17 of them, plus 3 touchdowns. I don't see Hollister's involvement going away anytime soon. He is definitely a free agent to target for the rest of the season, if available.
The foot injury to Devonta Freeman will keep him out for a few weeks, making Brian Hill the team's go-to running back. He may only have a few weeks of value, and there is a small chance that his value may only be Week 11 at Carolina. The Panthers run defense has been awful lately, which makes for a good matchup for Hill. Atlanta then plays Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and has its rematch with Carolina, however, Freeman may be back in the action by Week 13.
Justin Howe: This is a tough question, revolving around a rookie class that’s been playing a ton. But we’ve yet to see anything from the Packers’ Jace Sternberger, taken in the third round but shelved on injured reserve before Opening Day. He was designated to return in Week 9 but has only drawn 16 snaps since. It’s a cliché, but I’ll say it: Sternberger has all the tools. He’s a playmaker both before and after the catch, as evidenced by his 17.3 yards per reception as a junior at Texas A&M. He’s versatile, too, having lined up at every receiver spot and in the backfield. Jimmy Graham looks like a shell of himself, and Marcedes Lewis offers even less as a receiver. Next season— or perhaps down the 2019 stretch—Sternberger should work his way heavily into the rotation, and he’d catch the last few years of Aaron Rodgers’ prime.
Revisiting Lamar Jackson
Waldman: Last year, I posed this question...
"Jackson ran the ball 27 times against the Bengals on Sunday. There's a polarizing reaction to this development. On one end, there's the thought that this game plan is unsustainable for an NFL quarterback. On the other, there's the thought that the game is more open to an option-based offense than anytime during the modern area, so why not?
Lost in the clickbait is that Jackson went 13-for-19 for 150 yards and an interception and hung in the pocket while delivering the ball with astute placement. Feel free to comment on what you think about last week's game plan for Jackson's debut but what we want to know is whether Jackson is a viable starter or contributor for a fantasy roster this year and what you'd pay to acquire his services in terms of waiver wire budget or player capital in a trade?"
Now that Jackson is tearing up the league as a legitimate MVP candidate, how has your fantasy valuation changed for him long-term?
Howe: Well, of course, we’ve learned that Jackson’s arm is indeed teachable and can develop. Those of us bracing for a 2,600-yard, 15-touchdown season have been silenced. The Ravens have surrounded him with big-play weaponry, and he’s responded well, of course. With all of his rushing prowess, Jackson only needs that 2,600-15 line to be a borderline QB1. On pace for 3,600-30, of course, he’s the fantasy MVP.
I’m also encouraged to see that the Ravens aren’t being frivolous with his health. He’s running a ton, sure, but they’re reining that in on the goal line, where injuries are plentiful. It keeps him a little healthier, and Jackson doesn’t need one-yard plunges to find the end zone.
Haseley: Lamar Jackson is turning heads and is showing that he can be a force on the football field, both as a rusher and a passer. He is a bona fide MVP candidate by the letter of the law – He’s a quarterback on a division-winning team and he has wins against Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and DeSean Watson. He received a taste of what it’s like to be in a playoff game last year (loss to the Chargers), but this year will be different. Baltimore is expected to win the AFC North and perhaps finish with a first-round bye.
If that’s the case, they will host the divisional round and try to earn a chance to advance to the Super Bowl. Looking ahead long term I am excited to see what the future brings. The only downside is the threat of an injury derailing his career. He is not Cam Newton’s size and won’t be able to withstand the punishment that he is currently receiving on a weekly basis. As much as I don’t want to see it, the inevitable “big hit” is coming. He may have big numbers in the next year or two, but I don’t see him being a perennial Top-3 fantasy quarterback unless he changes how often he runs.
Schofield: I thought it was only fair to uncover what I wrote in response to this question last year, and here it is:
This might come as a bit of a surprise to those who know me, but I'm not considering Lamar Jackson as a viable fantasy option at this point in 2018. For those holding him in dynasty leagues, keep doing so, as the future looks bright for some of the reasons that Matt highlighted in the question: Lamar's debut showed signs of the pocket awareness and development as a passer that you want to see from him.
However, his usage and the game script seem to indicate that the Ravens are going to bring him along as slowly as possible. Now, the game plan that called for him to carry the football nearly 30 times might have been influenced by a late-week illness that sidelined him for Friday's practice, preventing him from getting in a day of work on a typically important day of practice that includes finalizing the game plan. Or, the game script might be more indicative of where the Ravens' coaches see Jackson's development at this point. John Harbaugh insisted to the media this week that the Ravens "are going to throw more" if Jackson remains in the lineup, but until I see it, I won't believe it.
So, I was not high on Jackson last year, but my expectations for him have certainly shifted this year. As I stated he showed signs last year of pocket awareness and development as a passer that you wanted to see from him, and this year those signs are still in place. It may look unorthodox at times, but he is very effective at throwing the football.
In addition, Greg Roman and the Baltimore Ravens have gone all-in on building an offense tailored to what he does best. Misdirection, designed throws, shot plays and getting him involved in the running game have made this Ravens' offense extremely difficult to defend.
Another thing to keep in mind is that Jackson seems to be doing a good job of protecting himself as a runner this season. There might be concerns about his longevity given his playing style and this offense, but his awareness for protecting himself should put those at ease.
Davenport: That is quite a question. One of my bigger regrets of this season is not having more Lamar Jackson on my teams. It wasn't that I didn't want him, it was simply a matter of him going for more money than I thought he would in my auctions. It was a mistake to not pursue him harder and I think my major hesitation was that exact issue—can he sustain the elite production? Watching his success this year has answered at least one part of that for me. He's absolutely electric, and his performance has been beyond my expectations. So today I completely buy the "elite" part.
The major issue of sustainability though has been on my mind for two months now. His valuation is tough for me but it comes down to a couple of big factors. The first is his ability to avoid big hits. One of the major reasons people have previously struggled with the viability of rushing quarterbacks is their susceptibility to injury. I think part of this is, as the question posed, that the NFL is now more open to this type of offense. But more importantly, Jackson and the Ravens are clearly doing their best to limit the pounding he takes. The macho attitude of taking on all comers is no longer as prevalent in today's football culture so it's become more accepted and encouraged to save your body and make business decisions when carrying the football. All of this is helping Jackson.
The other major factor is that there will necessarily be an erosion of Jackson's skills as he gets older and logs more carries. If he escapes injury he'll still face the fact that a lot of his success comes from his suddenness as an athlete, and when that fades he'll have to continue to progress as a passer. I'm not here to say he can't do that, in fact, I believe he can, but the crossroads of those two is where we answer the longevity question. The Ravens are clearly committed to building the offense to suit his strengths, and he's making business decisions with the football, so I believe he can deliver at least 6-7 years of peak production. I don't see him having the 12-15 year career arc of a pocket passer, but I'm optimistic this isn't a flash in the pan.
Wimer: There is no question that Jackson's passing accuracy has taken a quantum leap this year, spiking from 58.2 completion percentage as a rookie to 66.3 percent in year two (!!!) and his full-field vision is exceptional for such a young player. Jackson can hit an open receiver anywhere at any level on the field this year (and should continue this going forward). He truly does appear to have the "full package" and by that I mean he looks like a perennial NFL Pro Bowler at quarterback. The future is bright.
The only concern here is the punishment that good running/scrambling quarterbacks take at this level — witness Cam Newton's struggles in recent seasons for an example of what may be in store for Jackson. But nobody's NFL career lasts forever (even Morten Andersen's 25-year run ended, eventually). Every indication is that Jackson is going to be a marquee NFL quarterback for several more seasons.
Contributing to that rosy outlook is that fact that the Ravens are absolutely loaded with promising young talent at wide receiver (Boykin and Brown as mentioned above) and tight end (Mark Andrews) — we might be looking at a passing attack with four future Pro Bowlers who are already on the Ravens' roster (examples of high powered offenses with four Pro Bowlers — the dominant 14-2 Super Bowl Champion 1989 San Francisco 49ers (Joe Montana, Roger Craig, Jerry Rice, John Taylor were all Pro Bowlers that season and Brent Jones was solid at tight end); or the 13-3 Super Bowl Champion 1994 49ers with Steve Young, Ricky Watters, Jerry Rice and Brent Jones all Pro Bowl selections, with John Taylor still contributing).
The Ravens aren't yet at the same level as these two championship teams (Montana completed 70.2 percent of his passes in 1989; Young had a 70.3 percent completion percentage during 1994), but the potential to be that dominant in future years is in evidence, based on the improvement seen from Jackson and flashes from the other young players mentioned during 2019.
Pasquino: Evaluating a multi-dimensional player like Jackson goes back to looking at players who have added fantasy value at quarterback as both a rusher and a passer (Steve Young and Michael Vick, just to name two). The question then becomes one of longevity for both sets of skills. Quarterbacks with high value as rushers tend to run less and less as they age — just look at Russell Wilson with at least 500 yards rushing in four of his first six seasons, yet will likely be well below that mark in three of his last four campaigns (projecting him to roughly 375-400 this year). So, how long can Jackson maintain value as an elite runner, and if that aspect of his game diminishes, can he make up for it based solely on his passing skills?
Jackson cannot be expected to run as he does forever. Both Vick and Young tapered off after they turned 32, which would give Jackson 9-10 more seasons of solid production as a runner. That's forever in NFL terms.
As for his passing ability, Jackson has 19 touchdown passes this season, good enough for fourth place overall in the league. Jackson's receiving corps is certainly average at best and likely in the lower half of the league, so his strong second season definitely points towards an uptrend if Baltimore's younger receivers develop around him. Jackson is not in the top half of the league in passing yards, but that is not what the Ravens are asking him to do in the offense. With Baltimore leading the league by a country mile in rushing yards per game (203, more than 50 yards more than the second-place 49ers with 149 per contest), Jackson is spearheading a high-scoring and dominant offense. Given his age and the probability of getting better talents to boost his passing numbers down the line, Jackson should be considered a Top 10 quarterback for fantasy for roughly the next decade.
Wood: The only reason I'm having a good fantasy season in redraft leagues is that I changed my view on Lamar Jackson in the preseason, and drafted him in nearly every league. Credit to my fellow Footballguys, including Daniel Simpkins, whose passionate discourse in Jackson's favor led me to re-thinking his fit in the NFL and fantasy upside.
Matt, as you noted, Jackson's improved by leaps and bounds as a passer. He's better as a thrower than Michael Vick ever was, and is nearly Vick's equal as a runner. Other than the reality of increased injury risk that comes with running the ball a lot, Jackson has vaulted up the long-term rankings and sits only behind Patrick Mahomes II as a dynasty prospect. He's single-handedly winning fantasy leagues for managers thoughtful (and lucky) enough to roster him.
Waldman: I will note that Cam Newton runs more like a fullback in style and he was willing to engage in contact on a regular basis that has never been Lamar Jackson's game. To Drew's point, Michael Vick came from a more physical era of football. It's possible that his lack of wisdom as a runner was rooted in the time, although one could also note that Vick also lacked decision-making wisdom from the pocket for much of his career.
It's also worth noting that quarterbacks tend to get hurt more often in the pocket where defenders hit them from awkward angles. I believe many of Newton's serious injuries came from the pocket and not as a runner. Jackson has a great feel for the pocket and avoiding punishment as a runner. Still, I agree that he'll likely have a career of 7-10 years as opposed 12-15 because of his style as a runner could lead to some awkward plants that force a joint or tendon to give way.
Preparing for the Fantasy Playoffs
Waldman: The fantasy playoffs are two weeks away.
- How should a top-seeded team prepare for the fantasy playoffs?
- How should a team competing for one of the final playoff spots prepare?
- What are the common strategic mistakes that playoff-bound teams make?
What advice do you have to offer our readers?
Wood: I'm going to assume the trade deadline has passed for most of our subscribers, but if not -- you should be looking to trade away depth for an upgraded starting roster. At this point in the season, as bye weeks ebb and the playoff picture crystallizes, it pays to bolster your starting lineup above all else.
With the trade deadline behind us, all that's left is scouring the waiver wire for depth pieces who could help in the playoff weeks. A lot of leagues add and drop defenses based on weekly matchups, which sometimes allows a contending to team target free agent defenses who have attractive matchups in Weeks 15 and 16.
It also pays to focus on handcuffs if you're a contender. Teams that haven't locked up a playoff spot don't have that luxury. They're using every roster spot handy to win now. As a result, there are legitimate handcuffs that would thrive if their starters were injured or given time off at the season's end.
I'm going to assume the trade deadline has passed for most of our subscribers, but if not -- you should be looking to trade away depth for an upgraded starting roster. At this point in the season, as bye weeks ebb and the playoff picture crystallizes, it pays to bolster your starting lineup above all else.
With the trade deadline behind us, all that's left is scouring the waiver wire for depth pieces who could help in the playoff weeks. A lot of leagues add and drop defenses based on weekly matchups, which sometimes allows a contending to team target free agent defenses who have attractive matchups in Weeks 15 and 16.
It also pays to focus on handcuffs if you're a contender. Teams that haven't locked up a playoff spot don't have that luxury. They're using every roster spot handy to win now. As a result, there are legitimate handcuffs that would thrive if their starters were injured or given time off at the season's end.
It's a mistake to ignore the other playoff contenders. There may be a team you see as a legitimate title contender but, because of the eccentricities of NFL schedules, has a subpar record and remains in a must-win situation. Why not make a strategic free-agent add to hurt their chances? You aren't going to win a championship in a vacuum. You need good health, good matchups, and good luck for a two or three-week period, and you need to make sure you're giving your roster the most advantageous opponents possible.
Pasquino: Most fantasy leagues run their regular season for 13 NFL weeks. Once the bye weeks start to wind down (after Week 10 or so), the focus has to move towards playoff preparations—for teams that have 6+ wins and are expecting to get into the postseason. If your team is lucky enough to get to 7-3 or better, congratulations as now you have a great shot at meaningful matchups come December. A top-seeded team needs to look at how they are really doing (by looking at how many fantasy points their team are scoring, as some matchups may have been fortuitous—meaning a mediocre team can post an above-average record if they are lucky enough to play matchups where the opposing teams underperform in a given week.
Assuming that you have a team with a strong likelihood to make your league's playoffs, now it is time to look at your roster and see the matchups ahead for the players you are likely to use in the final two weeks (typically NFL Weeks 15 and 16). If you have a great matchup for those two games for your regular lineup, rest easy and just pick up insurance (such as the backup RB for your starter) and press on to get to those two key weeks.
As Jason mentioned, the only thing that matters if you are in a playoff chase and not assured to make it is to win the current week and get into that next round. If trades are available, give up your depth and focus on your starters for the next few weeks and try and get to the playoffs. Find other teams that are planning for the postseason and offer up a guy like Tony Pollard to the Ezekiel Elliott owner, for example, for an upgrade elsewhere. With byes winding down, capitalize on your depth to improve your chances to get into the playoffs. The postseason just comes down to weekly matchups, and predicting which teams you will be facing each week is very tough - and you have to get there first. Win in November and hope that December is meaningful for your team.
Teams that are breezing their way into the playoffs often rest on their laurels and expect to continue to dominate all the way through the playoffs. That can be a big mistake, as the current team that got you to that top seed may have horrible matchups for Weeks 15 and 16, and one bad week can knock out any team—especially against a playoff-caliber roster. If a team has at least nine wins and is easing their way into the playoffs, they cannot just expect to roll over teams in December to continue that run away with the championship. If anything, a top team has the ability to take on players that have weaker November schedules in favor of a roster better suited for December. Trades and waiver wire moves with that focus can be the difference of a championship and an early exit from the postseason.
Wimer: The top-seeded fantasy teams and also teams in contention should all look to winnow out any players who are likely out for 2-3 weeks - now is the time to be ruthless and have an eye for "what can you do for me in the near term?". If you are in a championship window (even in a dynasty league) then it's time to go for the top spot. James Conner was awesome last year, but this year he has a bum shoulder that knocked him out very early in his "comeback" last week. You have to have other options locked and loaded for the rest of this season if you want to win high-scoring playoff shootouts. More from Dr. Jene Bramel on Conner here.
The common mistake is to rest on your laurels if you are at 8-4 or 9-3 and coasting into the playoffs. Things change fast in the NFL - be as vigilant about the waiver wire in December as you were in September.
Davenport: The top-seeded teams who are fortunate enough to be qualified already can do several things to get ready for the final three weeks of the year. The most important is acquiring high-value handcuffs. I'm not talking about grabbing Dion Lewis if you're a Derrick Henry owner. I'm talking about making sure you have Tony Pollard or Alexander Mattison-type guys who insure your starters.
The second is to check your matchups and starting lineups for possible problems. Playoff games are one week seasons. You are going to play your starters in general, but positions like a tight end, kicker, and defense (or even quarterback) can create problems in your lineup that lead to losses. You can't afford to carry a good defense because you think they're good if they're facing the Chiefs or another top offense and you get a low number. You can now drop shorter-term plays for only Week 14-16 matchups you like. Let others profit in the regular season short term while you get set up for the final weeks.
Conversely, if you are not yet in then your decisions should be made for the moment you're living right now. There are only two weeks left and you can't afford to continue to stash players you hope pan out. Pick up whoever and whatever has short term viability and worry about the playoff weeks later. You don't have the luxury to wait any longer. Stashing Darrel Williams, or Tony Pollard, or even Marlon Mack and Austin Hooper doesn't give you a chance to win now. Obviously you don't want to drop Mack or Hooper, but if you're holding one of them at the expense of grabbing an important waiver wire piece then you have to make the hard choice. The playoffs, for your purposes, have already begun.
I think one of the bigger mistakes I see is two sides of the same coin. Some teams find success but they have a hole in their lineup, or they feel that a certain player is not playing up to expectations so they make panic swaps on the wire or make trades to try and improve. If you are finding success, while hardly a concrete rule, it's best to leave it alone unless you can see a terrible stretch of defenses or something similar on the horizon.
The other side of that coin is that you can become complacent. Off the top of my head, I can recall that last year I was the top seed in a league and was happy with *my* team, but in failing to continue to work the wire I let my opponents have late-season additions like Jamaal and Damien Williams who ended up costing me a Super Bowl title. Stay vigilant, and even if your team is fine, pre-emptive adds are still a good strategy to keep players out of your opponents' hands.
Schofield: Matchups, rested starters and weather. Those are the things that teams making that run to the playoffs need to keep in mind most as we head into the playoff stretch run.
It was pointed out earlier, but sometimes the playoff run requires you to step outside the comfort zone a bit more. You might need to sit down one of your year-long big-time players due to a poor matchup, or a weather situation, so make sure you treat the roster like NASA treats every mission: Have a backup plan for your backup plans. Spend time just sitting in rooms just thinking...stuff...up.
Okay, so I inserted a few "Armageddon" quotes in there. Moving on.
The main point is that you need to be prepared for coaches sitting players down, for weather situations, and for poor matchups. Also, while we often think of teams that have locked down playoff spots sitting starters don't forget the flip side of that coin. Teams that are out of contention might start playing younger players to get an evaluation on them before the draft season begins in earnest. So do your research, if you've been relying on guys that might fit these categories, make sure you have your backup plan in place. We are through the bye weeks, so it's time to start preparing for your key contributors finding themselves on the sidelines when you might need them most.
The main mistake that playoff-bound players make (and I have been guilty of this myself) is complacency. You might be crushing it in one of your league's and your team is almost on auto-pilot at this point. Now, if you're reading this chances are you are a pretty committed fantasy player. But fantasy playoffs often come during that November/December stretch when real life is placing some expectations on you. You're working, getting the extra bathroom painted so it looks nice for the guests to come the holidays, you're making travel arrangements, doing shopping, and balancing about eight million things given the season. Keeping tabs on your fantasy teams might slide further down the list than usual. But given all of the above, you need to finish the season strong. Don't assume that what got you there will enable you to finish the job.
Haseley: Take a look at your lineup for Weeks 14, 15 and 16 and see if any adjustments or acquisitions are needed. For example – Matt Ryan plays San Francisco Week 15. As good as Matt Ryan is, the 49ers defense could be a thorn in your side that week. Look to see if there is a quarterback on the waiver wire who may have a decent matchup. One example using this scenario is Jeff Driskel. Matthew Stafford is expected to be out for 3-4 more weeks and it’s possible that Detroit shuts him down for the rest of the year if they are out of playoff contention. Detroit hosts Tampa Bay in Week 15, which currently allows the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. That’s just one example, but it’s important to prepare yourself for the playoff weeks and that means making proactive adjustments weeks ahead of time. Check your quarterback’s schedule especially, but also see if there are any moves that can be made at other positions as well.
Take chances. Play your best players, but also play matchups. Search the waiver wire for potential gems who could produce this week. If you are unsure who to drop to make room for a potential gem, consider letting go of someone who is currently injured. There’s a chance that the player may not return in time for the playoffs, and if he does, he may not be at 100%. James Conner is a good example of this. It’s a tough decision to make, but it may be the one that earns you a playoff berth.
Don’t overthink your lineup. While it’s important to play matchups, you don’t want to forget the players who got you here. Having success in the playoffs usually comes as a result of your best players playing to their potential while others in your lineup do well enough. Consistency is important, but so is hitting big on some of your top players.
Howe: For top-seeded teams? Nothing special. Tie up any loose ends before your roster deadlines hit, and ensure that you don’t have any glaring depth holes. But you’re a top seed for a reason: your team just won more games through 12-14 weeks than anyone else.
For teams competing for a final spot? Pull out all the stops. Don’t worry about being “balanced” or “solid” or “deep” – you need to generate a bunch of unique points quickly. If you can, look to form high-impact offensive stacks to maximize scoring opportunity. If you’re holding Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, and your QB1 is Matt Ryan, go out on a limb and flip him for Jameis Winston (and another intriguing piece).
Two common strategic mistakes are panicking and over-trading. Some owners will assume the playoffs are a Whole. New. World. and that they need to reinvent themselves. Usually, all that’s needed is a strategic tweak here and there.
Another issue is not using the wire for depth. Emptying one’s roster down to ONE defense and ONE tight end and ONE kicker is a mistake I’ve seen plenty. D/ST units can fall apart with one injury down the stretch, for example. You want options, and it doesn’t cost anything to build them but end-of-bench guys like Raheem Mostert.
Overrated NFL Players
Matt Waldman: Regardless of his fantasy production, who do you believe is an overrated football player based on the media hype he earns?
Howe: I’m a bit peeved at the talk of Ezekiel Elliott being some earth-moving piece of the Cowboys’ puzzle. Elliott is a solid (read: above-average) back, but for the Cowboys to prioritize his contract they way they did was, simply put, silly. It forced them to keep Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Byron Jones, and others – more impactful Cowboys facing free agency – on the back burner. But I don’t see many elite traits at play to justify that. After all, look at the many cheaper and low-drafted backs that have made more of a dent for other teams. Elliott has declined steadily in most rushing metrics since entering the league. And for a bigger back who dominates his offense for stretches, you’d like to see better short-yardage production. But Elliott has converted those chances at a much lower rate than the NFL average. If he doesn’t make a sizeable difference as a runner, receiver, or touchdown converter, then what does he do to earn that contract?
Haseley: I’ll add Sammy Watkins. He has the talent to be a top elite receiver and he has shown that in the past, especially with Buffalo. Leg/foot Injuries have hampered him lately, but there’s also a degree of will that hasn’t consistently been there in the past few years. Every year he has a big game, and we all take the bait thinking he’ll rebound, but it just never comes. He’s a big disappointment, especially considering the potent Chiefs offense that he plays for.
Wimer: I'll nominate Saquon Barkley as also a vast disappointment, especially here in the second half of the season. Here is how his last three, game recaps here at Footballguys.com have started:
- Week 10: Saquon Barkley was a complete non-factor in the rushing game for the Giants and barely contributed as a pass receiver.
- Week 9: Saquon Barkley could not get going for the Giants on Monday night.
- Week 8: Saquon Barkley couldn't get much going on the ground for the Giants as the Lions were stout at the line of scrimmage.
Hopefully, the bye week will help rejuvenate Barkley, but if he falters (again) at Chicago this week, fantasy owners are going to have to think twice about playing him in the fantasy playoffs.
Schofield: I'll add to the Saquon Barkley idea and tack on the rest of the Giants' offensive skill players around Daniel Jones. Now I'm probably as guilty as anyone at buying into what they are assembling around a young quarterback, but Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram are struggling to stay on the field, and Barkley is not producing at the level you would expect from him. That might be due to the injuries and the rookie quarterback, but still, I think everyone is expecting more from this group and it has yet to transpire.
Wood: Carson Wentz. Wentz is a good quarterback, don't get me wrong. But the year he was on an MVP pace before tearing knee ligaments was characterized by an aggressive downfield approach where an unusually high number of contested balls went the Eagles way. Wentz could've easily had six to eight more interceptions. Since then, the Eagles are 14-12 and rank in the bottom half of the league offensively.
Pasquino: This is a great question. While I do believe that Jason 's pick of Carson Wentz is not a bad call, a high-profile team without a true face of the franchise is often associated with their starting quarterback. For that reason, I cannot fault the media focus on Wentz when discussing the Eagles, or any other starting quarterback when a team is mentioned. One name that comes to mind that used to dominate headlines but has really fallen out of the discussion is Odell Beckham Jr OBJ was supposedly going to help Baker Mayfield turn the corner with the Browns and give him an elite target to help Cleveland make the move to respectability and a potential playoff run, but Beckham has been disappointing this season with just one touchdown and under 50 catches and 700 yards.
