You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Passing Matchups
Justin Howe, Devin Knotts, and Keith Roberts preview and prognosticate the rushing and passing matchups for the upcoming slate of NFL games. They rate the matchups as great, good, neutral, tough, and bad. Here's a quick note about the matchups analysis and how it fits within our sites cheatsheets:
PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.
Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Tom Brady is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.
Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.
Let's examine a good matchup and a bad matchup.
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS DEFENSE (GOOD MATCHUP)
Baker Mayfield and this offense continue to struggle to start the year as Mayfield has now turned the ball over five times compared to just three touchdowns. With all of the hype heading into the season, the Browns have yet to put it all together as Mayfield is completing just 56% of his passes. The problem for this offense is that once the first or second read is covered, Mayfield has struggled to improvise and finding the open non-primary receivers.
This continues to be an offense that has an immense amount at the top of the receiving group in Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, but so far this year, Landry has struggled to be the possession player that he has been over the last few seasons as he has just 10 receptions over his first three games. The Browns are going to need Landry to help Mayfield as this is a team with limited alternative options with injuries to Rashard Higgins who is questionable this week with a knee injury and David Njoku remains out with a knee injury.
The Ravens secondary has now given up back-to-back weeks of 349 yards or more to opposing quarterbacks. Outside of Marlon Humphrey, this is a unit that is struggling across the board as they have been scrambling a little bit with the loss of Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith. Anthony Averett on the outside has struggled as he has allowed 269 yards passing so far this season and saw his snaps greatly reduced as he was replaced by Maurice Canady on Sunday.
Canady is an oft-injured sixth-round corner who has been placed on injured reserve each of his first three years and was a practice squad promotion heading into Week 2. Part of the issue is that so far this year, Marlon Humphrey has not shadowed any receivers and has lined up on the defensive left side for a vast majority of plays. This could be a real problem against the Browns who move Beckham all over the field as he plays all three positions. The Ravens should be exploitable out of both the slot with veteran Brandon Carr and on the outside with either Canady or Averett. While it is still a unit that has talent particularly at safety, with Earl Thomas and Tony Jefferson, this is a unit that was one of the best in football last year and so far appears to be a long ways away from that.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS OFFENSE AT LOS ANGELES RAMS DEFENSE (BAD MATCHUP)
Always a volatile passer, Jameis Winston struck the high end of his outcome range in Week 2. He continued to lose control in the pocket, take sacks, and throw shaky passes at times. But he also attacked downfield aggressively and with poise. When Winston is on, he has a truly dynamic connection with his gifted receivers, particularly Mike Evans.
Evans is a walking mismatch most weeks, but simply couldn’t be corralled Sunday, turning 15 targets into 8 catches, 190 yards, and 3 scores. He caught two long, contested touchdowns, another on a short pick route, and a flawless go-route that should have clinched the win. Evans consistently got separation from Janoris Jenkins and the New York safeties and won most battles at the catch point. He’s not always this fundamentally great, but these kinds of performances aren’t fluky or out of character for him.
The supporting cast took a backset Sunday but excelled when thrown to. Chris Godwin was again strong in the slot, and tight end O.J. Howard broke out of a bad slump to make a handful of big plays. When this attacking is clicking and not pressured by the game script - which forces Winston into desperate, errant throws - its upside is as high as any in football. As a result, Winston, Evans, and Godwin are all matchup-proof fantasy plays.
Through three weeks, the Rams have boasted one of the NFL’s most dominant pass defenses. They’ve allowed just 5.8 yards per throw and 212 per game, and they opened the year with 10+ quarters of touchdown-free football. Star cornerback duo Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib have locked down the outside, helping to limit the likes of Odell Beckham, Michael Thomas, and D.J. Moore to just 6.9 combined yards per target (and no touchdowns).
Peters certainly looks more confident and poised than he did during his rocky first season with the Rams. He doesn’t move around to shadow top receivers, but when he does square off with Mike Evans this Sunday, it will be required viewing. Perhaps the unit’s biggest strength is the deep and talented corps of safeties, which provides dynamic help over the middle and down the field.
John Johnson continues to shine as one of football’s best young coverage safeties, while 13-year veteran Eric Weddle has scarcely lost a step. Even second-round safety Taylor Rapp has made big, momentum-shifting plays in coverage. Of course, this unit is even more dominant when the pass rush, led by the near-unstoppable Aaron Donald, is hassling quarterbacks. They’ll face their stiffest test of the young season on Sunday but boast the ability to flummox Jameis Winston into one of his trademark shaky days.
Matt's Recommendations: There's no doubt that, on paper, Cleveland has a good matchup against the Ravens but let's add some context to the data that rates Baltimore's defense as a good matchup. The Chiefs offense is a juggernaut and the Cardinals scheme moves the ball easily between the 20s but the Ravens didn't allow an Arizona passing touchdown, shutting down the Cardinals in the red zone with the exception of a David Johnson score on the ground.
Miami is masquerading as an NFL team while it tanks for Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins only managed 188 passing yards and a passing touchdown in an opening-day drubbing by the Ravens. Considering the Baltimore faced two of the most prolific passing offenses and one of the least, I'm betting on the Ravens being a notch better than they are, on paper.
Considering that Cleveland's passing offense has struggled to score and play turnover-free football, I'm not as enthusiastic about the Browns "getting right" against the Ravens. Read my opening segment on Baker Mayfield in this week's Top 10, and you'll understand that the offense's woes are more than scheme and line play.
The Ravens have enough of a pass rush to force Mayfield into the same negative behavior he's exhibited in the pocket this year. Mayfield should earn fantasy-worthy yardage, but the touchdown-to-interception ratio could remain disappointing this weekend.
On the other hand, the Rams defense has the look of a "paper champion" right now. Cam Newton looked awkward throwing the football in the opener, Drew Brees got hurt and gave way to Teddy Bridgewater who hadn't played a meaningful game in years, and Mayfield's struggles to read coverage and play effectively in the pocket leads me to believe the Rams defense hasn't been tested.
Winston is erratic enough that he can turn a happy ending into a tragedy in any given week. Plus, the Giants used a lot of Cover 3 against Evans last week, which means Jenkins covered Evans using outside leverage on routes breaking to the inside. Evans is a skilled player, but he benefitted from the Giants' scheme as much as the personnel mismatch.
The potential loss of Chris Godwin for the weekend could also force Winston to be more reliant on the less consistent Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson. I'm inclined to agree that the Rams will flummox the Buccaneers passing offense this weekend.
2. Trendspotting
Ryan Hester's weekly feature is an excellent examination of data used to help you unlock matchups with potential for big points. Let's take another look at the Browns-Ravens matchup through Hester's lens:
Sometimes the stars align, and an offense targets its players the same way an opposing defense allows its production. For example:
| Team | RB Tgt% | WR Tgt% | TE Tgt% | RB Rec% | WR Rec% | TE Rec% | RB Yd% | WR Yd% | TE Yd% |
| Cleveland Browns | 21.1% | 60.6% | 11.9% | 27.4% | 61.3% | 11.3% | 22.1% | 81.2% | 7.9% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 14.4% | 68.3% | 17.3% | 20.9% | 61.2% | 17.9% | 12.7% | 71.1% | 16.2% |
- Baltimore opponents target running backs on 14.4% of their pass attempts, the sixth-lowest ratio.
- Baltimore opponents gain 216.3 yards per game via wide receivers, fourth-most.
- Cleveland gains 196.0 yards per game via wide receivers, fourth-most.
- Baltimore opponents gain 71.1% of their yardage via wide receivers, the ninth-highest ratio.
- Cleveland gains 81.2% of its yardage via wide receivers, the fourth-highest ratio.
Action Items
With Jimmy Smith ailing and slot corner Tavon Young injured during the preseason and out for the year, Baltimore has yielded big games to opposing WR1s and slot receivers alike. Fellow cornerback Marlon Humphrey is also on the injury report this week.
Don't do anything silly like benching Odell Beckham. While the stats say Jarvis Landry has started slow, 99% of the team's snaps and 9 targets last week suggest production could be coming soon. At a projected 0.4% rostered in DraftKings tournaments, Landry makes for an interesting GPP candidate.
Matt's Recommendations: I appreciate Hester combining the data with the context of the injured personnel in Baltimore's secondary. While I am skeptical that Mayfield will find the end zone repeatedly in this game, I believe he'll move the ball between the 20s much like the Cardinals. Beckham and Landry are smart plays.
3. Starting Stacks
Scott Bischoff profiles DFS stacks with excellent performance potential in GPP play available at FanDuel and DraftKings. Here's how Scott outlines his feature:
Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
Here's my favorite stack of the week from Scott's article.
Austin Ekeler + Chargers Defense
FanDuel: Ekeler ($8,100) + Chargers ($5,300) = $13,400
DraftKings: Ekeler ($8,000) + Chargers ($3,800) = $11,800
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 32 ranked run defense allowing 208 yards per game
Game Total - 44.5
Implied Totals - Chargers at 30 points and Dolphins at 14.5 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Chargers -16
The Los Angeles Chargers are on the road versus the Miami Dolphins on Sunday for a Week 4 AFC matchup. The Chargers are a 16-point road favorite, and they should have no trouble putting points on the board via their offense. Their defense is capable of production and is in a great spot in this matchup as the Dolphins have been torched in each way in 2019.
The Dolphins have allowed six scores on the ground which is most in the NFL. They have yielded a 5.4-yard per carry average which is second-highest in the NFL. The Dolphins have given up three rushing plays of 20-plus yards, and only six teams in the NFL have allowed more. They have also allowed two rushing plays of 40+ yards which are most in the NFL.
The Chargers have struggled a touch in 2019, but they can generate pressure on the quarterback. That pressure can translate to turnovers, and the Dolphins have allowed 13 sacks through three games which are third-most in the NFL. They have also thrown six interceptions in 2019 which are most in the NFL. The Chargers defense will have chances to get to GPP value in this contest.
The game script looks ultra-positive for Ekeler and the Chargers defense, and it is not difficult to see both sides of this stack as an excellent option for GPP play in Week 4.
Matt's Recommendation: Melvin Gordon is back with the Chargers but he won't suit up this weekend. Justin Jackson is a little dinged up with a calf injury and could be inactive if Los Angeles decides to use Troymaine Pope in what should be a blow-out. It actually makes Pope a high-risk option who could deliver similar production as Tony Pollard earned as the close-out back when the Cowboys removed Ezekiel Elliott from the lineup after taking a commanding lead against the Dolphins.
Still, expect Ekeler to start the game and compile serious production in the red zone and as a receiver and against this oft-confused linebacker unit.
4. Fantasy Overview
Jeff Haseley delivers an overview of the week that was and a look ahead. This week, Haseley profiled players he's upgrading and downgrading at each position. Let's look at his options for running back and tight end—two positions that are experiencing scarcity of production thus far.
- Devin Singletary, BUF - Yes, Singletary is dealing with a minor hamstring injury that might keep him out one more game to be sure he is fully healthy when he returns. For now, Frank Gore is handling duties, but in limited action so far, Singletary has produced 127 yards on 10 carries (12.7 YPC) with an additional 5 receptions. His time is coming. Buffalo has their bye Week 6. I feel Singletary could be a focal point of the Bills offense in the second half of the season.
- Chris Carson, SEA - Carson has struggled with ball security, but he is doing everything else right. He is rushing for 15+ yards on 11% of his carries which is highest of all backs with at least 30 carries.
- Phillip Lindsay, DEN - The Broncos are starting to realize that Lindsay is more of a playmaker than Royce Freeman, and despite his smaller stature, he's more successful near the goal line. Lindsay's 7 carries inside the 10-yard line is 4th in the league and his snap-share percentage over Freeman should widen in the coming weeks.
- James White, NE - We have yet to see the Patriots play a worthy opponent, and James White has not had his big 10-catch two-score game yet. We know it's coming, and now Julian Edelman is nursing a chest injury that could decrease his targets. It opens the door for White to be a key contributor. His time is coming.
Needle pointing down
- James Conner, PIT - The Steelers offense has lost its zip without Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, but mostly Roethlisberger. Mason Rudolph is struggling to fill Ben's shoes and the offense is sputtering. James Conner is a product of that lack of production. He has only 1 touchdown and 97 rushing yards in three games. He was projected to be a candidate for double-digit touchdowns and 50+ receptions. Those expectations are dwindling away.
- Chiefs running backs, KC - The Chiefs Plug-N-Play offense is starting to resemble the Patriots uncertain ground game, in that there is no given back that will assume the majority of the team's production on a weekly basis. LeSean McCoy, Damien Williams, Darrel Williams, and everyone's preseason darling, Darwin Thompson have all shown some degree of success. Until a true back emerges, this situation is a cloudy mess with uncertainty for weekly production.
- Sony Michel, NE - Michel was projected to be the Patriots primary rushing threat in 2019, but he has struggled out of the gate with a dim 2.4 yards per rush (on 45 carries!) and 110 rushing yards in three games. He has zero receptions and if it wasn't for two goal-line plunge touchdowns, he would be outside of the Top 50. And that was against the Steelers, Dolphins, Jets (combined 0-9 record). There is hope that he will turn it around, but his teammate, Rex Burkhead, is waiting in the wings with a better track record.
Players I like moving forward
- Darren Waller, OAK has burst onto the scene and is a candidate to be this year's, George Kittle. I'd like to see him get in the end zone, but his numbers have been outstanding so far. The future is bright for Waller.
- Dawson Knox, BUF Knox is a player who could see a spike in targets moving forward. I don't necessarily see him as a Top 10 player, but he's on my radar.
- Austin Hooper, ATL - Hooper is quickly becoming one of Matt Ryan's top targets. Only Julio Jones has more team targets than Hooper. As long as the scores keep coming, Hooper has Top 5 potential.
- T.J. Hockenson, DET - Hockenson benefited from a Cardinal defense who has been horrendous against opposing tight ends this year. Outside of that, Hockenson has been on a milk carton. In his defense, he was targeted four times last week, two of which were end zone targets. One of those he caught for a touchdown that was ruled that he stepped out of bounds before making the catch. The score was negated. He is still leading all tight ends on the team in snaps and should see a jump in production in the coming weeks.
Players I'm shying away from
- Jimmy Graham, GB - In Week 3, Graham had only 24 snaps while Marcedes Lewis had 31. The Packers already shy away from using a tight end in their offense, and now Graham is losing ground to Lewis. The future isn't looking bright for a guy who looked like a Hall of Famer on the Saints.
- Trey Burton, CHI - The Bears offense has sputtered in the first three games and they are using a two-tight end approach with Burton and Adam Shaheen. It points to a drop-off in production for Burton, who was supposed to be a key contributor for Matt Nagy's offense.
Matt's Recommendation: Carson, White, and Lindsay are smart plays. Based on the film, all three are playing well. I know my friend Sigmund Bloom, disagrees with me about Carson, but Haseley's stat is compelling support of my side of that argument.
I agree with all of Haseley's "Needle Moving Down" options at running back with the exception of McCoy. Andy Reid has a track record for rolling with a committee until one back proves his worth. Once he does, he shuts the door on the committee. McCoy is the best back and he participated fully Thursday's practice, which is a good sign.
Darren Waller is a must-have tight end in fantasy leagues. He's not only earning targets in open space where he can use his athletic ability but also catching tight-window passes and taking contact while doing so. He's going to be a consistent fantasy starter because of his short-area targets and his work over the middle that defenses will player softer against when the Raiders are working in garbage-time.
I also like the mention of Knox because of his athletic and technical gifts. He was underutilized as a receiver at Ole Miss, but a good one, nonetheless. I profiled Hockenson in this week's Gut Check—more on this below.
5. The Gut Check
I like to take a deeper look at players where the box score and a first-look at the tape might indicate one conclusion but we should be considering another. This has been the mission of many of my nearly 500 Gut Check columns over the years.
This week, I profile T.J. Hockenson and Irv Smith, Jr. as potential upside options for your re-draft teams. Think of Smith as a luxury stash and bet on the Vikings throwing more than they have—and enough to Smith that he becomes a cheap fantasy value for those in desperate need of a fantasy tight end in these currently lean times.
The more compelling option this year is Hockenson, who delivered tremendous production against the hapless Cardinals defense but disappeared from the box score for the past two weeks. Here's my analysis of Hockenson below:
weigh the process ahead of the results with T.J. Hockenson
After a great start against the Cardinals, Hockenson's fantasy productivity vanished for the past two weeks. Do not be discouraged by the box score. Do not listen to anyone trying to tell you that he's been used primarily as a blocker.
Sunday's game against the Eagles could have easily been a three-touchdown performance. Although he dropped two of the three targets, Hockenson routinely got open with excellent route running that displayed his quickness, the techniques to turn the hips of his opponents, and excellent positioning at the catch-point against tight coverage.
The small errors he made with each of these plays are correctable and they were either isolated and unusual events and/or strong play from the opponent.
Difficult to cover in red zone due to quicks and release skills. Rookie mistake here but this small error won’t remain an issue. pic.twitter.com/Z9TtcpXg7m
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 25, 2019
Third scoring opportunity dropped. The trust is there to target him and these aren’t wide open plays with egregious concentration issues. pic.twitter.com/DxrYFroJZb
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 25, 2019
Where Hockenson will most likely continue experiencing occasional mental errors will be assignments at OL, but unlikely inhibits target volume. pic.twitter.com/uHyqJfit0K
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 25, 2019
Jessie James is the one who missed the block above but assignment-sound pass pro is one of the more difficult transitions for rookie tight ends, so the point still applies.
The Lions use enough two-tight end sets that the sole onus of pass protection and run blocking at the position isn't on Hockenson. The scheme is designed for Hockenson to pose a consistent threat either as a seam-stretcher, YAC threat in the flat, or play-action target who can run a route from several alignments. An occasional mistake isn't going alter the Lions plan and all three drops were contested plays that will not lead Matthew Stafford to lose confidence in the rookie.
when to break the rule with hockenson
My recommendation is to acquire Hockenson in leagues with at least 25 roster spots or if you have a strong team and a luxury spot available in a 20-man roster format. You want another tight end as your starter until we begin to see a pattern with matchups or the small errors that derail potentially strong performances disappear. I think there's a strong chance Hockenson will have some excellent games down the stretch regardless of matchup because his athletic ability and route running are so strong that the catches will come.
See if Hockenson is available as a buy-low, throw-in or a hastily cut option available in your free agent pool.
Thanks again for reading and I hope these insights help you get the most from Footballguys this week and throughout the season.
