Fantasy Overview, Week 11

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The season is 10 weeks old, and for the most part, you've learned who the mainstays are in your lineup. However, here are a few under the radar players that I like this week who might be worthy of finding your starting roster, especially deeper leagues. Take a look at the matchups and learn which defenses have been struggling lately. Is there an opportunity to catch lightning in a bottle with a non-traditional starter? It's easy to insert Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, and Mike Evans into your lineup, but the diamonds in the rough can win your week. Here's a look at a few from each position.

QUARTERBACK

1. Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (vs. Arizona) - The 49ers last played Arizona in Week 9, which was a game where Garoppolo threw for 317 yards and 4 touchdowns. The 49ers are a run-first team, especially when they get a lead, which has happened often this season. Arizona has allowed 25 passing touchdowns this year (most in the league), while only allowing 6 rushing touchdowns. The game script isn't wildly in favor of San Francisco airing it out in this game, but there may be just enough scoring chances to justify starting Garoppolo in a favorable matchup. Arizona has allowed 300+ yards passing in four of the last five games, including against San Francisco.
2. Ryan Finley, CIN (at Oakland) - The 0-9 Bengals aren't a team to hang your hat on, and that includes their rookie quarterback, Ryan Finley. However, if you're playing the matchups and looking at trends, their opponent Oakland, has allowed 13 touchdown passes and two 400-yard games in the last four weeks. Finley will need to bounce back from a tough outing against the Ravens, and perhaps we'll see a game that yields well over 30 pass attempts.
3. Brandon Allen, DEN (at Minnesota) - The Broncos beat the Browns in Allen's first start, and after a bye, they will face the upstart Vikings who currently hold a wildcard spot in the heavily contested NFC. Having said that, the Vikings have allowed an average of 300 yards passing and two touchdown passes since Week 7. Allen averaged an impressive 9.65 yards per attempt with two touchdowns in his only start against Cleveland. A 75-yard touchdown pass to rookie Noah Fant helped increase those numbers, but he did not look lost as an NFL starting quarterback. We'll see how he does on the road in a tough environment, but the matchup isn't a bad one.
4. Dwayne Haskins, WAS (vs NY Jets) - Washington announced the Haskins will start at quarterback for the rest of the season. Coming off the bye they will host the New York Jets who have allowed 3, 3, and 4 touchdown passes in the last three games to Gardner Minshew, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Daniel Jones. In Haskins' first start, against Buffalo, he struggled to find a rhythm and the coaching staff kept him on a short leash. Perhaps after a bye and some time to get more acclimated with the speed and flow of the game, Haskins will find a light at the end of the tunnel. The Jets may be the team that gives him that much-needed confidence.

RUNNING BACK

1. Brian Hill, ATL (at Carolina) - The Falcons are coming off their biggest win in years as they surprised the Saints in their own backyard. In the win, they lost their top running back Devonta Freeman to a foot injury that will shelve him for a few games. Brian Hill saw plenty of action in the game, rushing 20 times for 51 yards. He also added a touchdown on a 10-yard reception. While Hill's numbers aren't spectacular, he'll face a Panthers run defense who have allowed a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns this season. They have allowed at least one rushing touchdown to a running back in each of the last five games. Hill will most likely be one of the bigger waiver targets this week as a result. In order for Hill to take full advantage of this opportunity, it's imperative to get an early lead. If Carolina starts off strong and forces Atlanta to play from behind, the running game won't be as productive. It's still one of the best matchups of the week, and Hill is someone who can benefit greatly. If he's not on your radar already, he should be.
2. Kalen Ballage, MIA (vs Buffalo) - Kenyan Drake is long gone, and Mark Walton is serving a four-game suspension. Enter Kalen Ballage as the Dolphins lead rusher. Last week he received 20 carries but only managed 43 yards. The biggest news is that he was on the field for 82% of the team's offensive snaps. He is clearly the top option at running back. The matchup against Buffalo does not appear to be one to exploit, but looking deeper, Buffalo has struggled against the run lately, allowing back to back 100-yard rushers (back to back to back, if you count Jordan Howard's 96-yard game in Week 8). Miami is suddenly on a two-game win streak, while the Bills have lost two of three. Look for Ballage to reach 15-20 carries in this game and perhaps be a difference-maker on offense.
3. Jordan Howard, PHI (vs New England). The Patriots have allowed only 8 touchdowns on offense all season, but five of those were rushing touchdowns. Interestingly enough, New England has allowed back to back 100-yard rushers in Nick Chubb and Mark Ingram. If the mighty Patriots defense has a flaw, it's their rushing defense. Jordan Howard has impressed this season scoring 7 touchdowns including one each in the last two games, both Eagles wins. It may not look like an appealing matchup, but if Philadelphia can muster some rhythm on offense with some consistency in the ground game, Howard may be the biggest beneficiary.
4. Devin Singletary, BUF (at Miami) - The Bills rookie rusher has out-snapped Frank Gore in three straight games while scoring in two of them. He is slowly learning the ropes and taking over for the veteran. Could this week be the game where explodes for a big game, even bigger than his Week 9 game that featured 20 carries for 95 yards and 1 touchdown with 3 catches for 45 yards? He has at least three receptions in each of the last three games and is poised for a breakout performance. Surprisingly, Miami has allowed only one rushing touchdown by a running back since Week 4, but they are 7th worst in rushing yards allowed to running backs since Week 7.
5. Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert, SF (vs Arizona) - The 49ers have a wealth of talent at running back, but Matt Breida's ankle injury in Week 10 may keep him shelved for the home game against Arizona. If that happens, the 49ers will turn to Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert to handle the load for a run-dominant team. Arizona has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs since Week 7, including an average of 8 receptions to opposing backs in that span. Mostert had limited carries in last week's game against Seattle, but when he did touch the ball, four of his six carries went for 7 yards or more. Arizona is weakest against the pass, but the 49ers offense flows through their ground game. Mostert and Coleman could have a "double-trouble" performance if the game script can stay on the ground.

WIDE RECEIVER

1. Courtland Sutton, DEN (at Minnesota) - Courtland Sutton is the Broncos leading receiver, but you may feel apprehensive about starting him now that Brandon Allen is under center. This week's opponent (at Minnesota) has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers since Week 7, including an average of 16 receptions for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns to the position, per game in that span. Sutton is the clear top-target for the Broncos, especially after the trade of Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco. This could be a highly productive game for the young up and coming receiver.
2. Terry McLaurin, WAS (vs NY Jets) - The Washington passing game has struggled since Case Keenum got hurt, and it wasn't that strong before his injury. Dwayne Haskins is the starter now and the coaching staff is slowly letting him explore his potential. Perhaps that changes for the better this week against the Jets who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers since Week 7. On average wide receivers score 2.8 touchdowns in that span. McLaurin is the team's go-to receiving threat and he knows Haskins well as teammates at Ohio State. If Haskins is given more clearance to throw, look for him to hook up with McLaurin. If trends continue, McLaurin and Haskins could combine for one, maybe two scores this week.
3. Tre'Quan Smith, NO (at Tampa Bay) - The Saints passing game rises and sets with Michael Thomas, but Tampa Bay's pass defense, especially against wide receivers is among the league's worst. The Bucs allow an average of 16 receptions to wide receivers per game this season. Can Thomas get 16 receptions? Yes. But there's also a good chance that someone else comes forward with a three or four-catch game with a long touchdown. That could be Ted Ginn Jr, or it could be Smith. Next in line to Thomas in snaps for a receiver is Smith, who was on the field for 83% of the team's offensive plays last week. Smith is finally healthy and is poised to provide a role for the Saints and their potent passing game.
4. Deebo Samuel, SF (vs Arizona) - The 49ers are dealing with injuries to their two top receivers, George Kittle (ankle/knee) and Emmanuel Sanders (ribs). The biggest beneficiary last week was rookie Deebo Samuel who had 8 catches for 112 yards on 11 targets. Kittle may return in Week 11, but Sanders is less certain. If Sanders misses this week against the Cardinals, look for Samuel to once again be Jimmy Garoppolo's top target, even if George Kittle returns. Arizona has allowed 25 passing touchdowns (most in the league), which is another reason to be high on Samuel in this favorable matchup.
5. Tyler Boyd, CIN (at Oakland) - The Bengals have a positive passing matchup this week at Oakland and Tyler Boyd is the one who should benefit the most. He has 29 more targets than his closest teammate, Auden Tate. Ryan Finley will throw a lot of passes in the short-intermediate range, which is right in Boyd's wheelhouse. A game with 8-10 targets is not unheard of, especially considering the Raiders have allowed 11, 8, and 8 receptions to top receivers in the last three games. Boyd is next in line provided Finley can find some success in his second start.
6. Marquise Brown, BAL (vs Houston) - Lamar Jackson's top deep threat returned from injury against the Patriots and he struggled to put together a strong outing, but most receivers have that same fate against New England. He rebounded with a 4-80-1 game against Cincinnati and this week he has another favorable matchup against Houston. The Texans have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers since Week 7, including an average of 1.7 touchdowns to the position per game. Brown is capable of getting behind the defense, and Jackson has proven that he can deliver him the ball. Another big game with a score could be on the horizon for the upstart rookie receiver.

TIGHT END

1. T.J. Hockenson, DET (vs Dallas) - The Lions rookie tight end may not have Matthew Stafford again this week, but he has three catches in each of the last two games with a total of 13 targets. He'll face a Cowboys team who have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends in the last four games. They have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to tight ends since Week 7. Hockenson has been on the verge of reaching pay dirt all season, but he has yet to cash in, except a huge Week 1 game against Arizona. This may be the week where he puts it all together.
2. Jared Cook, NO (at Tampa Bay) - In addition to the Buccaneers being one of the worst defenses against wide receivers, that also includes tight ends. Jared Cook returned after a three-week stint on the shelf with an ankle injury. He finished with 6 catches for 74 yards on 10 targets. He should be a key piece of the Saints passing attack against the Bucs and likely will be one of the Top 6 finishers in Week 11.
3. Gerald Everett, LAR (vs Chicago) - Gerald Everett is enjoying his best season in his relatively young career. He has topped 4 receptions in four of the last six games, including an 8-68 performance last week against the Steelers. The Bears have allowed an average of 7 catches for 77 yards to tight ends since Week 7. Everett's 12 targets last week led the team. He is third on the Rams in targets this year, trailing only Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. The matchup this week is favorable and Everett has recently been hot, which makes for a solid prediction.
4. Jacob Hollister, SEA (on Bye) - This is a great time to scoop up Jacob Hollister, because others will either shy away or not see him on their list of possible free agents due his bye week being this week. Russell Wilson likes to utilize his tight ends. He elevated the game of Will Dissly earlier in the season, and he's doing the same for Jacob Hollister. Seattle tight ends have 22 receptions since Week 6 (Dissly injury) and Hollister has 17 of them, plus 3 touchdowns. I don't see Hollister's involvement going away anytime soon. He is definitely a free agent to target for the rest of the season, if available.

Good luck. Go earn that playoff spot this week.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com

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