We are three weeks into the season and the fantasy landscape is starting to take shape. This week I'll take a look at the top 20 players by fantasy points (PPR scoring) from each skill position, and provide my take on which players belong and which are destined to decline.
QUARTERBACK
The top quarterbacks are taking shape
The Top 4 quarterbacks are the outliers in point production so far, led by Patrick Mahomes II, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, and Russell Wilson.
Patrick Mahomes II has picked up right where he left off with 10 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions in his first three games. If anything, he's ahead of his pace from last year. He continues to be at the pinnacle of production even without the injured Tyreek Hill. Other receivers are filling in admirably in what looks to be a plug-n-play system in Kansas City.
Dak Prescott is playing like a man focused on earning his next contract. It helps that Dallas has played New York (Giants), Washington, and Miami (1-8 combined record), but Prescott has been pin-point accurate each week with outstanding execution. He was a gem as a rookie, but now he's starting to put together the whole package and be a complete quarterback. He can make plays with his arm or his legs, which makes him one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. Dallas' schedule gets harder going forward, but that doesn't mean Prescott will struggle. I envision Prescott staying in the top-8 among quarterbacks for the rest of the year.
Lamar Jackson was a one-dimensional rushing attack last season, but the Ravens are teaching their star pupil to develop his game as a passer, and so far he has passed with flying colors. The Ravens have a good core of youthful talented receivers who are helping make Jackson's job a little easier. If Jackson continues to soar as a passer, the sky is the limit on how high he can fly. Staying healthy will be a key factor in his success this year. If he plays 15-16 games he has the chance to finish in the Top 3.
Russell Wilson has 9 total touchdowns in three games this year when you include his two rushing touchdowns. He has topped 300+ yards twice and has not dropped below two touchdowns in any game this year. He has always been a do-it-all quarterback, but he has taken off this season thanks to a 71.4% completion rate, 119.6 quarterback rating, and a yards per attempt of 8.6. He should continue to be a fixture in the Top 6.
Some additional unexpected results after three weeks include:
Positive
- Tom Brady, NE 6th
- Andy Dalton, CIN 9th
- Case Keenum, WAS 10th
- Josh Allen, BUF 11th
- Jacoby Brissett, IND 14th
- Gardner Minshew, JAC 16th
Negative
- Jared Goff, LAR 19th
- Aaron Rodgers, GB 22nd (not pictured)
- Baker Mayfield, CLE 23rd (not pictured)
- Kirk Cousins, MIN 25th (not pictured)
Which players are on the way up and which ones are on the way down?
Needle pointing up:
- Daniel Jones, NYG - Not only is Jones matching his stellar pre-season performance, but he has shown that he can be an effective rusher, scoring two rushing touchdowns on five carries. The future is looking bright for the Giants star-in-the-making. In just one game, he's almost in the Top 25. The loss of Saquon Barkley will most definitely mean more passing attempts.
- Gardner Minshew, JAC - Nick who? The Jaguars have found a gem in Minshew, and the team is coming together on the offensive side of the ball. Perhaps he is the answer to their years-long problem of finding that productive quarterback who can carry the offense? Minshew has a 73.9% completion rate (2nd in the league behind Prescott). He needs to add some yardage to his passing totals, but he's doing everything else right.
Needle pointing down:
- Mitchell Trubisky, CHI - Yes, he just tagged Washington for three touchdowns, but he's averaging a paltry 5.62 yards per attempt and he is not running nearly as often as he did in 2018. He has only 5 carries for 21 yards and 0 rushing scores. Last year at this time he had 14 rushes for 64 yards and 1 touchdown.
- Mason Rudolph, PIT - The sample size is small for Rudolph, but in two games, his best numbers are 14 completions for 174 yards. He has a sub-60% completion rate and he doesn't run much - 5 carries for 22 yards.
Running back
Approximately one point separates 1st from 3rd place, 10 points separates 3rd from 4th place, and 10 points separates 5th from 6th place. A big game any given week could elevate the ranking status of any of these Top 20 running backs. Approximately 20 points separates 6th place from 20th place.
- Leonard Fournette, JAC Fournette is currently in 16th place despite not scoring a touchdown yet. He is on the verge of moving up if he can get some traction in the end zone.
- Phillip Lindsay, DEN Lindsay has picked up where he left off before injuring his wrist in 2018. In a committee approach in Denver, he is standing out with 9th-place ranking thanks to his versatility as a rusher and receiver. He is starting to widen the gap between Royce Freeman which makes his 2019 outlook more appealing.
- Mark Ingram, BAL - Ingram was a great free agent signing for a team that needed a physical rusher with the power and vision combination that Ingram has. He has benefited from a successful offense that has given him plenty of goal-line carries that he has cashed in. As long as the Ravens offense continues to produce, Ingram should be a consistent member of the Top 10.
- Derrick Henry, TEN - Henry has been a fantasy force since the tail end of the 2018 season and it has carried over to 2019. There is no indication that he is slowing down, and he is the clear rushing threat for the Titans. He is even getting more opportunities as a receiver, making good on his chances.
- Devin Singletary, BUF - Yes, Singletary is dealing with a minor hamstring injury that might keep him out one more game to be sure he is fully healthy when he returns. For now, Frank Gore is handling duties, but in limited action so far, Singletary has produced 127 yards on 10 carries (12.7 YPC) with an additional 5 receptions. His time is coming. Buffalo has their bye Week 6. I feel Singletary could be a focal point of the Bills offense in the second half of the season.
- Chris Carson, SEA - Carson has struggled with ball security, but he is doing everything else right. He is rushing for 15+ yards on 11% of his carries which is highest of all backs with at least 30 carries.
- Phillip Lindsay, DEN - The Broncos are starting to realize that Lindsay is more of a playmaker than Royce Freeman, and despite his smaller stature, he's more successful near the goal line. Lindsay's 7 carries inside the 10-yard line is 4th in the league and his snap-share percentage over Freeman should widen in the coming weeks.
- James White, NE - We have yet to see the Patriots play a worthy opponent, and James White has not had his big 10-catch two-score game yet. We know it's coming, and now Julian Edelman is nursing a chest injury that could decrease his targets. It opens the door for White to be a key contributor. His time is coming.
Needle pointing down
- James Conner, PIT - The Steelers offense has lost its zip without Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, but mostly Roethlisberger. Mason Rudolph is struggling to fill Ben's shoes and the offense is sputtering. James Conner is a product of that lack of production. He has only 1 touchdown and 97 rushing yards in three games. He was projected to be a candidate for double-digit touchdowns and 50+ receptions. Those expectations are dwindling away.
- Chiefs running backs, KC - The Chiefs Plug-N-Play offense is starting to resemble the Patriots uncertain ground game, in that there is no given back that will assume the majority of the team's production on a weekly basis. LeSean McCoy, Damien Williams, Darrel Williams, and everyone's preseason darling, Darwin Thompson have all shown some degree of success. Until a true back emerges, this situation is a cloudy mess with uncertainty for weekly production.
- Sony Michel, NE - Michel was projected to be the Patriots primary rushing threat in 2019, but he has struggled out of the gate with a dim 2.4 yards per rush (on 45 carries!) and 110 rushing yards in three games. He has zero receptions and if it wasn't for two goal-line plunge touchdowns, he would be outside of the Top 50. And that was against the Steelers, Dolphins, Jets (combined 0-9 record). There is hope that he will turn it around, but his teammate, Rex Burkhead, is waiting in the wings with a better track record.
Wide Receiver
- T.Y. Hilton is proving his worth as a truly productive receiver. His 5th place ranking with Jacoby Brissett (not Andrew Luck) is admirable and impressive. His recent quad injury dampens the excitement, but he has played through pain before and excelled. If he doesn't miss time, he should still be able to keep pace in a crowded Top 10.
- Cooper Kupp's 6th place ranking shows that he is over his knee injury that shelved him midway through 2018. The injury is behind him and the Rams are utilizing him exactly like they were pre-injury. Jared Goff hasn't taken flight yet either, which bodes well for Kupp's 2019 outlook.
- D.J. Chark inside the Top 10 is a surprise. He is third on his team in targets with 18, which is tied for 46th among all wide receivers. His place among the Top 10 is largely due to his three touchdowns (one in each game). Chark has been impressive, but the numbers suggest he'll drop off and return to earth sooner rather than later. If I am wrong about Chark, it's because his yards per target is 15.4, which is third-best in the league. He is also catching 83% of his targets with 238 of his 277 yards coming as air yards. If those numbers hold or even slightly decline, he could stay in the Top 20.
- John Ross - see Chark with better yards after the catch - 136 to be exact (3rd most in the league). I generally prefer a receiver with better YAC than a receiver with high air yards. In that regard, I see Ross in a brighter light than Chark. Ross could see a drop-off when A.J. Green returns, but for now, he's is holding his own.
- Terry McLaurin may be the fantasy darling at wide receiver this year. He is in the conversation up to this point. What separates him from Chark and Ross? He is a good combination of the two - he can make contested catches at distance and he runs well after the catch. Although it hasn't shown up in the advanced stats yet, his separation skills are excellent, but his quarterback is failing to have enough time to get him the ball. When he is targeted, his quarterback has a 141.9 quarterback rating - 12th best among wide receivers. He is averaging over 5 receptions per game and Washington is 4th in pass plays per game. If those numbers continue, McLaurin should continue to be the team's biggest receiving weapon, which will translate to fantasy success.
- Deebo Samuel, SF - 101 of Samuel's 148 yards receiving have come after the catch. He has scored only one touchdown this year, but more is on the way. The 49ers have scored 96 points (5th in the league). Only George Kittle (21) has more targets than Samuel (14) for the 49ers.
- Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate, NYG - The addition of Daniel Jones and the loss of Saquon Barkley means the Giants are going to pass more and pass with production. When Shepard is targeted, the quarterback rating is 124.5. Golden Tate will command some of the target share when he returns in Week 5, but the trio of Evan Engram, Tate, and Shepard will make up the majority of the Giants pass production.
- Demarcus Robinson, KC - Tyreek Hill will return in a few weeks, which will take away some of the production that has gone Robinson's way. However, the Chiefs offense is strong enough to give value to three, if not four players any given week. Until Hill returns Robinson is a weekly starter. After he returns, he's still a flex option with scoring appeal.
- D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, CAR - The presence of Kyle Allen has given life to the Panthers offense and their playmakers. Both Moore and Samuel should benefit from an accurate arm while Cam Newton is out nursing a foot injury.
Needle pointing down
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT - The Steelers offense is struggling and Smith-Schuster's numbers are slipping as a result. He has only 8 receptions in three games and Mason Rudolph has not cracked 200 yards in a game yet. The future should definitely be better for Smith-Schuster, but the days of him being a dominant force are on hold.
- Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, MIN - The Vikings offense, led by Kevin Stefanski, is favoring the running game, which is affecting the pass offense. Only one player has over 10 receptions on the team (Thielen). Diggs is dealing with a sore hamstring, but only 6 catches in three games on an offense that does not need to pass is a big concern.
- Kenny Golladay, DET - Golladay has 14 catches on 27 targets (51%) and is showing that he is struggling against opposing team's top corner. As a result, he is not catching his targets, while Marvin Jones is 15 catches on 19 targets (79%). That's a concern for Golladay.
- Michael Thomas, NO - The lack of Drew Brees has a negative impact on all Saints receivers. Teddy Bridgewater has not thrown over 200 yards in a game in two games, and he is averaging a mere 6 yards per attempt. It all points to a decrease in production for Thomas.
Tight end
What stands out?
Evan Engram is the top tight end after three games and now he has an upgrade at quarterback thanks to Daniel Jones. After Engram, the rankings could go either way with approximately five players. The preseason Top 3 of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle have not hit their stride just yet, but you have to believe their time is coming. After the Top 8, there is a drop-off of production that doesn't appear to have many takers who could make a jump into the Top 10. Eric Ebron, O.J. Howard, and T.J. Hockenson could make a move, but there appears to be little else.
Players I like moving forward
- Darren Waller, OAK has burst onto the scene and is a candidate to be this year's George Kittle. I'd like to see him get in the end zone, but his numbers have been outstanding so far. The future is bright for Waller.
- Dawson Knox, BUF Knox is a player who could see a spike in targets moving forward. I don't necessarily see him as a Top 10 player, but he's on my radar.
- Austin Hooper, ATL - Hooper is quickly becoming one of Matt Ryan's top targets. Only Julio Jones has more team targets than Hooper. As long as the scores keep coming, Hooper has Top 5 potential.
- T.J. Hockenson, DET - Hockenson benefited from a Cardinal defense who has been horrendous against opposing tight ends this year. Outside of that, Hockenson has been on a milk carton. In his defense, he was targeted four times last week, two of which were end zone targets. One of those he caught for a touchdown that was ruled that he stepped out of bounds before making the catch. The score was negated. He is still leading all tight ends on the team in snaps and should see a jump in production in the coming weeks.
Players I'm shying away from
- Jimmy Graham, GB - In Week 3, Graham had only 24 snaps while Marcedes Lewis had 31. The Packers already shy away from using a tight end in their offense, and now Graham is losing ground to Lewis. The future isn't looking bright for a guy who looked like a Hall of Famer on the Saints.
- Trey Burton, CHI - The Bears offense has sputtered in the first three games and they are using a two-tight end approach with Burton and Adam Shaheen. It points to a drop-off in production for Burton, who was supposed to be a key contributor for Matt Nagy's offense.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com