Over the last few years, the proliferation of the zero or late-round draft strategies for any of the skill positions has led to a boom of activity around team-building and draft capital optimization in fantasy football drafts. The late-round approach to any position is a two-way street as a drafter would be centering their attention on the back-half of the draft (plus more attention to the waiver wire) but also pointing to avoidance of the position in the early rounds. While any strategy of positional drafting can work with the right players, the late-round approach works hand-in-hand with the entire value structure of the position for a particular year.
ASSESS THE LATE ROUND LANDSCAPE
When getting up to speed on the new landscape of positional value for a fantasy football season - or simply recalibrating for a new wave of upcoming drafts - my first task is simply highlighting late-round players of interest. This can be done on an overall (mix of positions) sheet of the Top 200 or so, but I prefer to separate the positions into distinct columns.
Next, I simply highlight - starting at the bottom - the players of interest. This is especially important outside the first 10 rounds or so as they are all affordable and any singular player can be drafted in most of your leagues if aggressive enough.
There are bound to be highlighted players at every position in the low-cost bucket, but the key is looking at your confidence level and the sheer number of options. For example, the quarterback position is low-hanging fruit this year. Even when a league fades the position as a whole, waiting until at least 10-15 quarterbacks are gone is a sound approach. Based on the August myfantasyleague.com average draft position (ADP), here are the options outside QB15:
- Lamar Jackson
- Kirk Cousins
- Philip Rivers
- Mitchell Trubisky
- Josh Allen
- Derek Carr
- Matthew Stafford
- Andy Dalton
There are others, but this list alone screams wait on the position. There are steady veterans (Cousins, Rivers), rushing-centric young guns (Jackson, Trubisky, Allen) and rebound candidates with a reason for optimism (Carr, Stafford, Dalton).
Tight end is similar to quarterback in start-one-tight-end formats. Beyond the Top 12, which puts a player into the double-digit rounds of ADP, here are Week 1 starters of intrigue:
Walker is a fringe Round 9-10 by ADP but the rest provide ample cracks in the double-digit rounds to start the season with a streamer and upside as a weekly starter from there. Reed and Eifert are especially interesting considering their cost and career production when healthy.
The rules for running backs are targeting potential starters without an injury in front of them to clarify the depth chart. Secondly, target high-upside primary backups where a single injury can fuel a top-18 or even RB1 stretch of production. These are underrated backs in committees which could break their way or veterans with beaten-down stocks near or beyond RB40 in ADP:
- Kenyan Drake
- Latavius Murray
- LeSean McCoy
- Jaylen Samuels
- Adrian Peterson
- Royce Freeman
- Kalen Ballage
- Tony Pollard
- Damien Harris
- Alexander Mattison
- Giovani Bernard
- C.J. Anderson
- Ty Montgomery
- Chase Edmonds
- Malcolm Brown
- Alfred Blue
There is plenty of risk building a running back mainly from this subset, eschewing the position in the early rounds. However, Miami, Buffalo, possibly Washington and Dallas could have their Week 1 starter on this list. Also, running backs is an inherently fungible position for fantasy production where the substitute can replicate a higher percentage of the starter's production by volume-usage alone, which is not the case at the other skill positions. Also, telling the story of how each of each running backs turn into a starter for a stretch of the season is not a complicated one - typically an injury in front of them on the depth chart is all they need.
Finally, at wide receiver, like running back, the goal is to find strong depth chart roles and potential No.1 options on their team, or at least No.2 options with the elite quarterbacks.
The landscape is more barren than in 2018 for these later-round receiver targets. However, all four are quality names to consider when building a draft plan in reverse as WR2 types with strong quarterbacks attached.
BLENDING THE DRAFT BOARD
Knowing the above list of target players for the late rounds for each position, an owner can project the outline of their team for the back-half of a draft. On my example above, a quarterback is by far the most accessible in the late rounds - quality NFL starters with projectable floors. Next on the list is running back by the sheer volume of quality starters with a single injury ahead of them or ambiguous depth charts (holdouts, committee, etc) to open the season.
Tight ends are similar to quarterbacks, except the depth is more shallow of appealing later-round options. As mentioned above, Jordan Reed and especially Tyler Eifert stand out as early-season plays. If they are injured (again), then go back to streaming on the waiver wire in short order without much draft capital expended.
Wide receiver is the glaring position to stand out by doing this exercise for 2019. In formats where starting 3-4 per week is the lineup, using a later-round approach is a dicey game, especially when there are plentiful options in the Round 3-6 zone to acquire a strong core and minimizing the need for many later options. Quality benchmark thresholds in 2019 ADP would be a WR1 acquired by Mike Evans (around the Round 2-3 turn), WR2 by Amari Cooper-Brandin Cooks (Round 4 ADP) and WR3 by Jarvis Landry, Corey Davis, and D.J. Moore (Round 6-7 ADP range).
The final result is exiting the first 6-7 rounds with 3-4 wide receivers and one cornerstone running back, likely within the first two rounds. There is a flexible nature to the other pick or two within the core draft zone to secure another stable receiver, pair two top running backs together, or find value with a sliding elite quarterback or tight end.
