This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week. I will also try to sort them in order of most favorable or least favorable where possible, but obviously, the quality of the player needs to be factored in as well when making your decisions.
FAVORABLE MATCHUPS
WR Odell Beckham, CLE vs TEN – The Titans boast one of the league’s more underrated cover men, Logan Ryan, in the slot. But their outside guys are shaky, and they’ll contend with world-class deep threat Beckham in Week 1. Beckham is gifted enough to beat any NFL cornerback, of course, but a date with Malcolm Butler and Adoree Jackson surely has his mouth watering.
WR Amari Cooper, DAL vs NYG – Cooper will see a good bit of shadow coverage from Janoris Jenkins, but that simply doesn't mean what it used to mean. Last season, No. 1 wideouts from Mike Evans to Alshon Jeffery to Josh Doctson put up big lines in Jenkins’ jurisdiction. When these two faced off in Week 17 of last year, Cooper only managed 31 yards, but routinely got behind Jenkins down the field. If he and Prescott are on the same page this Sunday, it will be another long one for the Giants secondary.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET vs ARI – Under normal circumstances, all-world Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson would likely follow Golladay all over the field. But Peterson is suspended, and fellow starter Robert Alford was placed on injured reserve last weekend. As a result, the Cardinals will trot out a secondary packed with backups. Tramaine Brock is a mediocre cover man on his best day, while special-teamer Christopher Jones will be seeing the first meaningful action of his NFL career. In the slot, it’ll be rookie Byron Murphy leading the way. They’ll all have their hands full with size/speed specimen Golladay, who’s moved around plenty to create big mismatches all over the formation.
WR Dante Pettis, SF vs TB – As a rookie, Pettis played both inside and out; he’s a weapon that the team wants to get downfield however possible. In Week 1, he’ll draw most of his coverage from Carlton Davis and M.J. Stewart, neither of whom is much of a deterrent. Both are subpar cover men, and if Pettis is unleashed as a No. 1 option, he’ll create mismatches with both across the field. Stewart looks like a particularly tasty matchup: he struggled mightily in 2018, giving up huge slot games to the likes of Jarvis Landry, Nelson Agholor, and Mohamed Sanu.
TE Hunter Henry, LAC vs IND – The Colts’ improved defense operated like a funnel in 2018, dominating outside coverage and forcing the ball inside. As a result, they were one of the juiciest matchups for opposing tight ends. Over 18 games, they allowed 11 different tight ends to post double-digit PPR points. The Chargers have usage up for grabs with Tyrell Williams cut loose and not adequately replaced. If Philip Rivers decides to play against the Colts’ weaknesses, Henry could win big over the middle.
WR Josh Gordon, NE vs PIT – The Steelers tend to keep their cornerbacks in place, with top cover man Joe Haden lining up almost exclusively on the defense’s left. That will glue him to Demaryius Thomas for most of Sunday’s game, with Gordon drawing new addition Steven Nelson across the field. Nelson was targeted more than any other cornerback in football last year, and for good reason: he’s a thoroughly mediocre cover man. Gordon may not yet be fully up to speed, but he boasts more than enough natural dynamism to win this battle on a handful of impact catches.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN vs OAK – By all accounts, Sutton posted yet another impressive camp, routinely making tough downfield catches as the Broncos’ most dynamic threat. Against the Raiders, he’ll see most of his action against journeyman Daryl Worley, who was victimized often on deep balls last year. Sutton’s size/speed blend and ability to track off-target throws should be a huge boon Sunday.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU vs NO – Coutee is still nursing a preseason ankle sprain, and his Week 1 availability needs to be tracked through the weekend. The Texans don’t play until Monday, which will make it difficult to wait around for news. But if he’s cleared early, he’ll loom as a sneaky PPR play, lining up against one of 2018’s shakiest slot cornerbacks in Patrick Robinson.
UNFAVORABLE MATCHUPS
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ vs BUF – This would be a frightening matchup for Anderson even if he weren’t nursing a calf injury. TreDavious White has developed into one of football’s most dominant cornerbacks, capable of either locking down his man or baiting the quarterback into a playable throw. Last year, he was the driving force behind a smothering Buffalo pass defense that allowed just three 100-yard receivers. Anderson is dynamic, but White is not the cover man he wants to see while on the mend.
WR Corey Davis, TEN vs CLE – Davis enters 2019 with several factors working against a true breakout: shaky quarterback play, yet another coordinator change, and the return of Delanie Walker to the lineup. He could probably do without a Week 1 test from budding star cornerback Denzel Ward. Ward was fantastic as a rookie, and the Browns even experimented with sending him to shadow a few top receivers. Davis is the Titans’ only proven difference-maker on the outside, so he’ll see all the Ward he can handle. And it’s hard to trust Marcus Mariota to throw him open much downfield. Davis is a talented player, but his Week 1 upside is capped hard.
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND vs LAC – Hilton’s value took a sizeable hit when Andrew Luck retired: the Colts’ offensive volume, efficiency, and touchdown opportunity will all nosedive this year. It doesn’t help that he’ll open the year against arguably the league’s best group of cornerbacks. Casey Hayward isn’t strictly a shadow cornerback, but with the Colts’ wideout stable so thin, he’ll spend most of his day tracking Hilton around the field.
WR Julio Jones, ATL vs MIN – It’s never wise to sit Jones – even when his week is filled with uncertainty. But it’s also unwise to project huge numbers against the Vikings secondary. Last year, apart from a dumpster-fire game against the Rams, only 2 wideouts topped 70 yards in this matchup. It’s worth noting that, over the last two years, this is one of only two secondaries to hold Jones under 50 yards in a full game.
WR D.J. Moore, CAR vs LAR – Moore’s rookie year featured a lot of dynamism, both from outside and in the slot. But the Rams boast a star-studded pass defense, one that came together nicely late in 2018. Moving Moore around might not spring many openings in Week 1. Aqib Talib remains an elite cover man, and Nickell Robey-Coleman flashes as a lockdown presence in the slot. Even the much-maligned Marcus Peters came on strong down the 2018 stretch. Moore is plenty capable of winning from all over the field, but he’ll have his hands full with proven shutdown guys in Week 1.
WRs Tyrell Williams & Hunter Renfrow, OAK vs DEN – The enigmatic Antonio Brown won’t suit up for the foreseeable future, pushing Williams into the No. 1 role. But his Week 1 outlook against the Broncos’ stacked secondary isn’t particularly attractive. With strong cover men on the outside – and quarterback Derek Carr loath to push the ball downfield – Williams may be little more than a decoy for much of this game. That would normally bode well for Renfrow, but he’ll kick off his career in the slot against Chris Harris, who remains one of football’s best.
TE David Njoku, CLE vs TEN – For all of the Titans’ warts in 2018, locking down opposing tight ends wasn’t one of them. They allowed football’s fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position; in fact, only 3 opponents (Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, and Eric Ebron) even topped 45 yards. Njoku is a gifted young talent, but the Titans’ stout safeties make for a poor Week 1 matchup. It’s likely Baker Mayfield will look to air the ball out against the Tennessee cornerbacks instead.
