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The best month on the dynasty calendar has arrived. The spotlight in May is on rookie drafts and that will be the primary focus of this edition of the dynasty trade value chart. Instead of going through my own personal rookie rankings, we will go into more depth on the following items related to rookie drafts:

1. Putting together a process to build a draft board specific to your league.
2. A look at the biggest decision-points in 2019 rookie drafts.
3. Assigning trade value to specific picks and thoughts on an overall draft strategy.

In addition, we will take a position-by-position look at some of the veteran players who emerged from the draft as winners or losers.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes values for Superflex leagues. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Rookie Pick Value and Draft Strategy

The Top Tier

We may not be quite there yet but expect Josh Jacobs to emerge as the consensus 1.01 over the next few weeks, especially after the Isaiah Crowell injury. There is just too much opportunity for him and he went off the board before any wide receivers and 29 picks ahead of the second running back. As of now, there isn’t a huge premium on the 1.01 in single quarterback leagues but it is possible that changes for later drafts. As predicted, there is starting to be much more of a premium on the 1.01 in Superflex leagues. Kyler Murray is an extremely exciting prospect and if you didn’t position yourself to take him over the past couple months, it is probably too late now unless you are willing to give up serious assets. Dwayne Haskins will also likely settle into the top tier in Superflex leagues. Running backs Miles Sanders and David Montgomery are also in the top tier. In terms of opportunity, there is a huge gap between the top three backs and anyone else in the class. N’Keal Harry seems to have enough support to also be included in the top tier. In tight end premium formats, Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson are probably in the top tier.

The Second Tier

In typical PPR leagues, there is a tier drop after the top four (Jacobs, Sanders, Montgomery, and Sanders). As we’ve discussed for months, the top of the 2019 class is mediocre. There is above-average depth, however. In fact, due to the favorable landing spots of some of the lower-ranked wide receivers, the second tier has only expanded post-draft.

We are left with a situation in which there is very little practical difference between the 1.05 and a pick at the 2.02. Everyone is going to stack these second-tier wide receivers differently based upon what they value most (more about this below). It is a great scenario for those picking late in the first round. You have a realistic shot at landing your 5th or 6th ranked player outside of the top 10. It is a rough spot to be in for teams picking 1.05 (or 1.07 in Superflex). You aren’t going to be getting a player of the caliber you typically expect to land at that part of the draft. Every draft is going to look extremely different from league to league, which will make things fun.

Just check out the Footballguys staff rookie rankings to get an idea of the lack of consensus beyond the top few guys. A.J. Brown ranks as high as #2 and as low as #15. D.K. Metcalf ranks as high as #4 and as low as #16. Deebo Samuel ranks as high as 4 and as low as 10. T.J. Hockenson is as low as 16 and as high as 5. I can’t remember a year where nearly all of the top prospects had such a wide range in rankings. Marquise Brown is regularly falling to the second round of early rookie drafts. Has the top wide receiver drafted ever fallen so deep into drafts?

Draft Strategy

In terms of strategy, if you are picking in the middle of the first round, trading down a handful of spots would be ideal. You should still get a similar caliber of player. The issue is there might not be much of a market to move down. If the market is tepid, perhaps it makes sense to accept much less than typical if someone wants to move up.

If drafting later in the first, patience would seem a virtue. Instead of falling in love with one guy in the second tier and giving up value to move up, it may make sense to just stay put and see how the board shakes out.

Even more than most years, the key will be getting multiple bites at the apple if possible. Some of the wide receivers in this class are going to emerge as prime dynasty assets. There is too much talent and too many intriguing situations for all of these guys to fail. The lack of anything resembling a sure thing amongst the second tier also means that many of these guys will have minimal value in a couple of years.

Rookie Draft Process

Dynasty players should take into account opinions from the fantasy analysts they trust but put a process in place to make their own rookie draft boards and then try to improve that process each year. In this vein, I want to quickly describe my personal process when I start putting together my rookie board. It will hopefully at least provide some food for thought when you are putting your own board together. Mine is a four-step process that I detail below along with some examples from this class:

1. Figure out what role the team expects the player to play. Draft capital spent on the player is a huge clue into how big a role the team is expecting a player to fill. From this perspective, it is important to keep in mind that the value curve on draft picks isn’t a straight line and earlier picks are exponentially more valuable. As one example, the Cincinnati Bengals gave up two 6th-round picks to move up six spots (from 110 to 104) in the 4th round. The value NFL teams place on 6th round picks is extremely minimal, even in comparison to 4th round picks. Even within the same round, the difference in draft capital is huge. For example, the Raiders traded two late-4th round picks ((#129 and #135) for a single higher 4th-round pick (#109). It is logical to look closely at the exact opportunity cost teams paid to acquire players because these costs give us a lot of insight into how much value they expect the player to provide.

Looking at an NFL Draft trade value chart, the draft capital Baltimore spent on Marquise Brown was 720 points, almost three times as much as Seattle spent to acquire K.K. Metcalf (270). Pittsburgh spent 260 points on Diontae Johnson at #66 overall, approximately three times the draft capital Arizona spent on Hakeem Butler (88). Washington spent just 9 points worth of draft capital on Kelvin Harmon. Draft capital spent isn’t the end all and be all but it is a decent starting point.

In terms of expected role, it is also important to look at skillset. The Bengals used a valuable mid-2nd round pick on tight end Drew Sample but described his receiving ability as merely “adequate” in the post-draft press conference. Speaking of post-draft press conferences, they are a valuable insight into each team’s thinking. While you never take the post-draft spin 100% at face value, it is worth listening to in terms of what role a team expects they are filling. For example, Howie Roseman and Doug Pederson were glowing in their assessment of Miles Sanders. There’s no doubt they expect him to play a huge role in Philadelphia.

2. Assume the team is correct about the expected role, consider how much fantasy value there would be in my specific league.

After figuring out what role the team expects the player to fill, the next step is determining what fantasy value that role would have in my dynasty league’s specific scoring. The biggest mistake novice dynasty players make is not adjusting their draft boards to account for unique twists in league scoring. With this draft class, you want to be especially aware of how your league scores tight end production. Is your league TE-premium (1.5 PPR)? Super-premium (2.0 PPR or 1.5 PPR plus yardage bonuses)? In any TE-premium scoring format, T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant have to be considered in the top half of the 1st round, especially in super-premium formats.

As an example of focusing in on fantasy value of a given role, let’s take a closer look at Josh Jacobs. In the Raiders post-draft press conference, John Gruden talked about Jacobs as a “centerpiece of the offense” and “three-down back.” When asked if Jacobs could carry a heavy load, Gruden replied, “my expectation for him is…if you’re listening, Josh, I’d encourage you to get some rest because we’re going to run you a lot.” This was even before Isaiah Crowell went down with a season-ending injury.

What would a major role in the Raiders offense look like from a fantasy perspective in the PPR format?

Despite major offensive struggles in 2018, Raiders running backs still put up 2,289 total yards, caught 102 passes, and scored 8 touchdowns (379 fantasy points). It is easy to see those numbers increasing given the improved talent across the board for the Raiders offense (Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, Trent Brown, etc.), which should increase scoring opportunities. This looks like a backfield that should produce 400+ fantasy points. Oakland is clearly planning on Jacobs having a major role, both as the go-to guy in the red zone and as a pass catcher. Can he score 75% of the fantasy points in the Raiders backfield? More? If so, there’s a clear path to his putting up 300 fantasy points as a 21-year old rookie. That sounds like the dynasty 1.01 and the type of player who could see his dynasty trade value blow up over the next six months.

3. Assess the odds that the team is right.

In the second step, I’ve assumed the player will be what the team expects. We know that is often not the case. Also, even if the player’s talent level isn’t an issue, he can still fail to meet expectations due to the surrounding talent. This is where things get really difficult.

For this class, a big key to accurately ranking the rookies is going to be your general assessments of some key offenses and coaching staffs. Do you believe in what Arizona is building? If so, how much do you push Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler up the board? The Patriots haven’t done a good job of identifying wide receiver talent in the draft. Do you drop N’Keal Harry a little bit? The Steelers have nailed their assessments, do you bump Diontae Johnson up a little bit?

This is where seeking out the opinions of sharp draft analysts is important and can help you determine how likely it is that the assessment of the NFL team was correct or not.

4. Decide if the player is even better than his own team realizes.

In somewhat rare cases, the player exceeds even his own team’s expectations and carves out a bigger role than expected. One year after drafting JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers GM Kevin Colbert admitted he was surprised how good Smith-Schuster was and he outperformed even their own scouting reports. The Dallas Cowboys settled for Dak Prescott in the late-4th round after failing to complete a trade up for top target Paxton Lynch and then missing out on secondary target Connor Cook at the top of the 4th round. Clearly, they weren’t counting on having landed their long-term franchise quarterback, but Prescott outplayed his evaluation.

It can be dangerous to put too much weight on this factor because teams are working with a lot more information than we are. However, it is something to consider. From my perspective, there’s nothing wrong with occasionally bumping up a player or two each year a tier or two higher on your board on the assumption they will be even better than the team who drafted them is expecting. More than that, you start chasing too much and burn too much rookie draft capital over the long haul.

The 2019 Rookie Class: Key Decision Points

In all my years as a dynasty player, this is the toughest class I have seen to rank. Stacking up a board involves not only forming opinions on the talent level of the specific players but also much more fundamental issues when it comes to assessing value. Thus, the focus above on process and trying to figure out where the value lies. Let’s look at some of the factors that make this class so difficult to figure out:

1. Positional Value. Even more than in past years, some of the toughest choices while on the clock in rookie drafts will come down to positional value. Here are some of the tough choices facing dynasty owners. Deciding between N’Keal Harry, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, T.J. Hockenson, and Noah Fant is largely a decision about positional value. It’s not universal (is anything in this draft class?) but Harry does seem to be the consensus top receiver on most boards. The tougher call is where to rank him against the top running backs. Josh Jacobs is a fairly easy choice for me personally and I’ve been on the Jacobs at 1.01 bandwagon since January. However, comparing Harry to the next tier is much more difficult. Harry was drafted in the first round, has a very PPR-friendly skillset, and landed on a team that has been top-10 in passing attempts year after year. On the other hand, there is an argument in favor of the running backs simply based upon scarcity. With 3-WR sets becoming the standard for most offenses, there are basically 96 starting wide receivers in the NFL now. On the other hand, there are only 32 starting running backs — even less of whom have the pass-catching ability and three-down upside of Sanders and Montgomery.

Complicating matters further is the presence of a pair of elite tight end prospects, T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant. In an in-depth study of who should have been the top picks in a 2016 dynasty startup, it was somewhat surprising to find that two of the Top 21 should have been tight ends and Travis Kelce was a top-5 overall fantasy asset over the past three seasons. That wasn’t even in a TE-Premium format. Are Hockenson and Fant top-6 picks in TE-Premium? Probably. There’s also an argument they shouldn’t be going off the board too much later in all other formats.

2. The difference between NFL value and fantasy value. Another complicating factor in figuring out what to do with this rookie class — especially the wide receivers — is trying to separate out NFL value that doesn’t translate to fantasy points when assessing draft capital. Specifically, when it comes to wide receivers with elite speed, much of their real NFL value comes from their overall impact above and beyond their actual production. Deep speed changes the geometry for defenses. Fear of getting beat over the top forces the safety to play more conservatively and opens up the underneath passing and running games.

Thus, we could see players like Marquise Brown, Mecole Hardman, Parris Campbell, DK Metcalf, and Andy Isabella provide a solid return on investment to their NFL teams in terms of overall impact while at the same time not developing into impact fantasy performers. On the other hand, high-volume possession receivers and slot guys sometimes are more valuable to fantasy teams than they are on the field.

3. Talent versus situation. One of the big reasons the picture only got cloudier after the draft is that so many lesser-regarded prospects landed in fantastic fantasy situations while many of the pre-draft darlings landed in spots which could hinder their fantasy impact. Tennessee (A.J. Brown) and Seattle (DK Metcalf) ranked 32nd and 31st, respectively, in passing attempts last season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (Diontae Johnson) ranked #1 in passing attempts, throwing approximately 16 passes per game more than Tennessee and Seattle. Mecole Hardman will step into a Kansas City offense that scored an incredible 4.4 touchdowns per game.

Ranking these wide receivers comes down in large part to a philosophical exercise of perceived talent versus (if you buy the scouting reports) versus situation, which is a decision each dynasty owner is going to have to wrestle with to figure out where they stand on the issue.

Running Back

Winners

Leonard Fournette We knew Jacksonville would add depth at running back in the draft. But waiting all the way until pick #140 (Ryquell Armstead) to address the position was a positive sign the Jaguars are all in on Fournette. Plus, the Jaguars added one of the best run-blockers in the draft (Jawaan Taylor) at the top of the second round. Expect Fournette’s value to rise slowly and steadily this offseason.

Christian McCaffrey The Panthers were going to take a running back at some point to complement McCaffrey. It was mildly surprising they waited all the way until pick #154 to do so, taking Jordan Scarlett. McCaffrey looks primed for another massive workload in 2019 and looks deserving of being the 1.02 in startups.

Joe Mixon The Bengals did add a couple of backup options in the 6th round (Trayveon Williams and Rodney Anderson) but the story of the draft for Cincinnati was the commitment to building the team around the run game (and subsequent play action). Offensive lineman Jonah Williams was the top pick and top run-blocking tight end Drew Sample was the Bengals second selection.

Losers

Todd Gurley Gurley was listed last month here as one of seven running backs who could see a value hit from the early selection of a running back. Darrell Henderson is a talented young runner and should carve out a solid role as a change of pace back behind Gurley. There are some similarities here with the other team in Los Angeles, where Austin Ekeler has had a consistent role behind Melvin Gordon. Certainly nothing to panic about but if Gurley is going to project similarly to Gordon, he should be valued more in that range as opposed to alongside the top four backs.

Tarik Cohen Cohen was also one of the seven backs listed last month as a potential draft loser. When Chicago traded up for David Montgomery, it certainly wasn’t good news for Cohen. From a fantasy perspective, Montgomery’s top-notch receiving skills could be especially damaging to Cohen’s prospects. We knew the Bears would draft a back but the best case scenario for Cohen would have been a one-dimensional bruiser.

Sony Michel The third-round selection of Damien Harris was a real surprise. It is interesting to see New England investing so much draft capital at the running back position, which seems to go against what seems to be accepted wisdom amongst the analytics crowd. It is hard to know what to make of Michel. He looked great down the stretch and in the playoffs for the Patriots. However, he was barely used in the passing game. Now, he will have to fight both James White and Harris for targets.

Wide Receiver

Winners

No news is good news when it comes to top receivers poised to see massive workloads. New Orleans and Green Bay were possibilities for early-round wide receivers but didn’t pull the trigger. It wouldn’t have had a big impact on Michael Thomas or Davante Adams but the lack of any early-round competition means even more targets for these elite players. Pittsburgh took Diontae Johnson at the top of the third round but a receiver of that caliber was a realistic best-case scenario for JuJu Smith-Schuster, who should also see a massive share of targets.

Further down the list, D.J. Moore, Chris Godwin, and Mike Williams are beneficiaries of the status quo. The value of these three seems to tick up just slightly every month and are amongst the top candidates for breakout seasons.

Further down depth the rankings, Curtis Samuel, John Ross, Robby Anderson, Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Dede Westbrook, Jamison Crowder, Kenny Stills, and Albert Wilson all get slight boosts due to their teams not adding any serious competition to threaten their roles.

Draft Losers

Unlike some other positions, there aren’t any huge losers at wide receiver because so many can see the field at once. However, there are a limited number of targets to go around so some guys did see their fantasy value impacted negatively by certain draft additions.

Dante Pettis We knew San Francisco would add at least one wide receiver to the mix. However, the 49ers actually used two Day 2 picks to upgrade the position — Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd. Statements from the coaching staff also pointed toward Samuel as the favorite for the flanker position, which has been the best fantasy spot for Kyle Shanahan wide receivers.

Corey Davis The Tennessee pass offense is low volume to start with, so the addition of A.J. Brown is a real negative in turns of expected volume for Davis. Brown is talented enough to emerge as the top target for the Titans and this isn’t an offense where there is likely to be much fantasy value in the WR2.

Courtland Sutton Tight end Noah Fant is more like a big-bodied wide receiver in playing style. There certainly are some areas where his skillset will overlap with Sutton’s, especially in terms of red zone opportunities. Plus, it’s hard to get excited about a Denver offense led by Joe Flacco or Drew Lock over the next few years.

Alshon Jeffery JJ Arcega-Whiteside is a big Alshon Jeffery fan and plays a similar game. While the addition of the rookie doesn’t have too much of a short-term impact on Jeffery’s prospects, it could have an impact in 2020 and beyond. Jeffery turns 30-years old next February and will carry a cap hit of $16M next season and in 2021. If his production slips at all, Jeffery could become expendable and the Eagles now have a replacement waiting in the wings.

Shifting Values in Kansas City

The going rate for Tyreek Hill seems to be a