July is our final opportunity to buy low on some undervalued veterans before the reality of trying to win fantasy matchups in the fall really sets in for everyone in August. The dynasty calendar has predictable ebbs and flows in player value. In the offseason, most dynasty owners get caught up in trying to build a pretty roster. In this context, “pretty” means a roster loaded with youth. A team that — at least on paper and with some optimistic assumptions built in — can be dominant over the long haul. That mindset starts to shift in August when we see depth charts solidify and the focus turns to actually trying to win. Some of the hype starts to wear off and veteran players poised to produce big numbers see their value rebound. Highlighting some of these remaining buy-low opportunities that are likely to disappear when training camps open will be a focus of this month’s Dynasty Trade Value Chart.
It may also be our last, best opportunity to cash in on some of the hype and optimism surrounding younger players who aren’t guaranteed to make an impact and who could see their trade value slide over the next few months. For example, we know that a decent percentage of the wide receivers in this rookie class isn’t going to make an impact. We should be willing to cut bait early if the opportunity arises to sell high and we feel there are some signs that our rookie or young veteran might be overvalued. We will also note some of these players this month.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes values for Superflex leagues. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
Quarterback
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
Superflex
|
|
1
|
24
|
60
|
|
|
2
|
10
|
40
|
|
|
3
|
10
|
40
|
|
|
4
|
10
|
40
|
|
|
5
|
9
|
30
|
|
|
6
|
9
|
30
|
|
|
7
|
8
|
26
|
|
|
8
|
6
|
26
|
|
|
9
|
6
|
25
|
|
|
10
|
6
|
22
|
|
|
11
|
6
|
20
|
|
|
12
|
5
|
17
|
|
|
13
|
4
|
17
|
|
|
14
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
4
|
17
|
|
15
|
4
|
16
|
|
|
16
|
4
|
15
|
|
|
17
|
4
|
15
|
|
|
18
|
4
|
15
|
|
|
19
|
3
|
14
|
|
|
20
|
3
|
13
|
|
|
21
|
2
|
12
|
|
|
22
|
3
|
10
|
|
|
23
|
3
|
9
|
|
|
24
|
3
|
9
|
|
|
25
|
3
|
9
|
|
|
26
|
2
|
9
|
|
|
27
|
2
|
9
|
|
|
28
|
2
|
8
|
|
|
29
|
3
|
8
|
|
|
30
|
2
|
8
|
|
|
31
|
2
|
7
|
|
|
32
|
1
|
6
|
|
|
33
|
0
|
5
|
|
|
34
|
0
|
4
|
|
|
35
|
0
|
3
|
|
|
36
|
0
|
3
|
|
|
37
|
0
|
3
|
|
|
38
|
0
|
3
|
News and Notes
Kyler Murray “crushed the offseason” and has generated universally glowing praise from his veteran teammates. As with Patrick Mahomes II last offseason, he could be a guy who sees his dynasty trade value tick up slowly but surely all offseason and the ceiling is extremely high if he even comes close to meeting the hype.
Carson Went signed a massive contract extension. It doesn’t impact his dynasty value much but is at least a good sign that the team believes in his talent and ability to stay healthy over the long haul.
Josh Rosen is running behind Ryan Fitzpatrick early in the Dolphins quarterback battle. There is plenty of time for that to change but it gets harder and harder by the month to get excited about Rosen’s fantasy prospects.
Sell High Opportunities?
Dwayne Haskins is the type of player who at least one dynasty owner in every Superflex league will value highly right now. Someone will believe in his long-term prospects and ignore the risks because there seems to be a general optimism in the dynasty community when it comes to Haskins. He certainly could meet or exceed the hype but it seems as if the possibility of him failing — or at least failing to become an impact fantasy quarterback — isn’t fully priced into his dynasty value. NFL teams obviously had some reservations about Haskins given his slide to the middle of the first round. Plus, from a fantasy perspective, his lack of mobility means he will have to put up huge passing numbers to ever approach fantasy QB1 status. It is hard to envision that happening anytime soon given the lack of weapons in Washington. Daniel Jones provides an interesting alternative target. You could potentially flip Haskins for Jones plus a future pick right now. Despite being drafted higher, possessing a more fantasy-friendly skill set (rushing ability), and joining a team with some decent weapons, there remains a value gap between Haskins and Jones that may not be justified.
Veteran Targets
Cam Newton recently turned 30-years old and has been recovering from shoulder surgery. He is no longer the hyped young player he was a few years ago and has seen his dynasty value slide slowly but surely in recent years. It is worth checking in on his trade availability before camp starts and while there is still some uncertainty about his health in the minds of some. We should remember Newton has the potential to be an elite fantasy performer again given his rushing ability and the much-improved surrounding talent on the Carolina offense. The offensive line is in better shape than it has been in a long time and the speed and talent of Newton’s trio of young weapons (Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel) could be a nightmare for teams to defend against if Moore and Samuel make the leap in 2019. As was noted here around this time last offseason when discussing Andrew Luck, the buy-low window could close quickly, so the time to move is now with a player as talented as Newton.
Running Back
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
66
|
|
|
2
|
57
|
|
|
3
|
56
|
|
|
4
|
50
|
|
|
5
|
38
|
|
|
6
|
Melvin Gordon
|
36
|
|
7
|
35
|
|
|
8
|
32
|
|
|
9
|
30
|
|
|
10
|
LeVeon Bell
|
28
|
|
11
|
28
|
|
|
12
|
28
|
|
|
13
|
26
|
|
|
14
|
26
|
|
|
15
|
22
|
|
|
16
|
18
|
|
|
17
|
16
|
|
|
18
|
16
|
|
|
19
|
16
|
|
|
20
|
16
|
|
|
21
|
16
|
|
|
22
|
14
|
|
|
23
|
13
|
|
|
24
|
13
|
|
|
25
|
12
|
|
|
26
|
11
|
|
|
27
|
11
|
|
|
28
|
11
|
|
|
29
|
Darrell Henderson
|
10
|
|
30
|
10
|
|
|
31
|
10
|
|
|
32
|
9
|
|
|
33
|
9
|
|
|
34
|
Ronald Jones
|
8
|
|
35
|
8
|
|
|
36
|
8
|
|
|
37
|
Mark Ingram
|
7
|
|
38
|
7
|
|
|
39
|
6
|
|
|
40
|
6
|
|
|
41
|
DOnta Foreman
|
6
|
|
42
|
6
|
|
|
43
|
6
|
|
|
44
|
5
|
|
|
45
|
4
|
|
|
46
|
4
|
|
|
47
|
4
|
|
|
48
|
4
|
|
|
49
|
4
|
|
|
50
|
4
|
|
|
51
|
4
|
|
|
52
|
4
|
|
|
53
|
4
|
|
|
54
|
4
|
|
|
55
|
Benny Snell
|
4
|
|
56
|
3
|
|
|
57
|
3
|
|
|
58
|
3
|
|
|
59
|
2
|
|
|
60
|
2
|
|
|
61
|
2
|
|
|
62
|
2
|
|
|
63
|
1
|
|
|
64
|
1
|
|
|
65
|
1
|
|
|
66
|
1
|
News and Notes
Royce Freeman is getting all of the buzz and could make a big move if he can carry his momentum into training camp. The Denver backfield is one we should monitor closely. The dynasty values of Freeman and Phillip Lindsay could flip flop in the blink of an eye come August.
Tevin Coleman is increasingly looking like the favorite to be the lead back for San Francisco and has had a strong start to his 49ers career. The positive buzz on Coleman can only be seen as a negative for Jerick McKinnon.
DOnta Foreman has made “remarkable” progress in his return from a 2017 Achilles injury. It is unclear how much of the good vibes on Foreman are the coaching staff trying to prop up and motivate him versus Foreman making a real move to unseat Lamar Miller. Foreman will be a key player to monitor over the next couple months and a strong candidate to see a big jump in dynasty value.
Kareem Hunt had a “small argument” outside of a Cleveland bar. It doesn’t seem like anything to be overly concerned about but serves as a reminder that Hunt carries real off-field risk going forward. Continuing to put himself in positions where he makes himself and his franchise look bad is not a sustainable path to a long career.
Veteran Targets
Damien Williams might wind up being a prime example of how a focus on youth and draft pedigree in the offseason can offer an extended buy-low window on a player who could make a huge fantasy impact. Williams still seems to be available for a late 1st-round pick (or the equivalent) in most leagues as we enter July. His dynasty trade value has started to creep up ever so slowly and should only accelerate over the next month as hype builds for Williams and the focus of dynasty owners turns toward winning games instead of just constructing lineups that look good on paper. Bet on Williams being a big riser over the next two months as it looks like he should step into a role pretty similar to that of Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs have been clear over the last couple months that Williams is the lead back and expected to be a focal point of the attack. In the league’s best offense, he could have a huge fantasy season. Williams is a great buy for teams ready to contend. He could even be a strong speculative buy for rebuilding teams looking to turn a quick profit over the next few months.
Derrick Henry has seemingly been around forever but is just entering his age-25 season. If last December wasn’t a mirage, Henry is undervalued in dynasty leagues. Don’t forget, he rushed for 625 yards and 8 touchdowns in the final month of the season. Something seemed to click, both for Henry and the Titans coaching staff. Henry realized he needed to run tougher and the Titans coaches realized they needed to feature Henry as a workhorse while designing plays to get him to the edge to maximize his impact. Henry has been hyped before and never fully capitalized, so the lack of dynasty buzz is somewhat understandable. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a real opportunity here. Now may be the last chance to buy low if Henry carries his momentum from the end of last season into August and September.
Chris Carson is being valued as a low-end RB3 or even RB4 in most dynasty rankings and in terms of ADP while Rashaad Penny rides the wave of positive offseason reviews up the rankings. Penny is talented and could certainly make a big move if he shows up in camp and focused. Still, Carson is a buy-low candidate because his 2018 success wasn’t simply a case of Penny dropping the ball. Carson was legitimately excellent for the Seahawks. Carson could maintain value beyond his rookie contract even if Penny does indeed earn a major role in Seattle because Carson looks like a starting-caliber NFL back and could carry his value into his second contract, like Tevin Coleman.
Sell-High Opportunities?
Darrell Henderson saw his dynasty stock catch fire over the summer with huge early buzz due to his strong OTA performances and Todd Gurley being out of sight and out of mind with to his knee problems. Odds are good that Gurley shows up to camp in August and looks like Todd Gurley again, at which point some of the air will come out of the bubble for Henderson’s dynasty trade value.
James Conner was hugely productive last season and is still young. It makes sense that he is a consensus top-12 running back in the dynasty rankings. However, it is worth wondering how much of his value is due to his talent and how much is purely situational. If it is mostly the latter, that is always dangerous because situations can change quickly in the NFL. If you aren’t fully sold on Conner’s talent, it may be worth exploring whether Conner can get you Kerryon Johnson plus a pick or Josh Jacobs plus a couple of decent assets if you are of the belief they are more talented and safer long-term investments.
Wide Receiver
|
Pos Rank
|
Player
|
Value
|
|
1
|
48
|
|
|
2
|
47
|
|
|
3
|
Odell Beckham
|
46
|
|
4
|
45
|
|
|
5
|
42
|
|
|
6
|
38
|
|
|
7
|
32
|
|
|
8
|
28
|
|
|
9
|
27
|
|
|
10
|
26
|
|
|
11
|
25
|
|
|
12
|
25
|
|
|
13
|
24
|
|
|
14
|
22
|
|
|
15
|
22
|
|
|
16
|
22
|
|
|
17
|
D.J. Moore
|
21
|
|
18
|
20
|
|
|
19
|
20
|
|
|
20
|
19
|
|
|
21
|
18
|
|
|
22
|
NKeal Harry
|
17
|
|
23
|
16
|
|
|
24
|
16
|
|
|
25
|
16
|
|
|
26
|
15
|
|
|
27
|
15
|
|
|
28
|
15
|
|
|
29
|
Allen Robinson
|
14
|
|
30
|
14
|
|
|
31
|
13
|
|
|
32
|
13
|
|
|
33
|
12
|
|
|
34
|
11
|
|
|
35
|
11
|
|
|
36
|
10
|
|
|
37
|
Mecole Hardman
|
10
|
|
38
|
10
|
|
|
39
|
10
|
|
|
40
|
10
|
|
|
41
|
10
|
|
|
42
|
Will Fuller
|
9
|
|
43
|
9
|
|
|
44
|
9
|
|
|
45
|
Robby Anderson
|
9
|
|
46
|
8
|
|
|
47
|
8
|
|
|
48
|
8
|
|
|
49
|
7
|
|
|
50
|
7
|
|
|
51
|
7
|
|
|
52
|
7
|
|
|
53
|
6
|
|
|
54
|
Marvin Jones
|
6
|
|
55
|
6
|
|
|
56
|
TreQuan Smith
|
6
|
|
57
|
5
|
|
|
58
|
5
|
|
|
59
|
5
|
|
|
60
|
5
|
|
|
61
|
5
|
|
|
62
|
5
|
|
|
63
|
4
|
|
|
64
|
4
|
|
|
65
|
4
|
|
|
66
|
4
|
|
|
67
|
4
|
|
|
68
|
4
|
|
|
69
|
4
|
|
|
70
|
4
|
|
|
71
|
3
|
|
|
72
|
3
|
|
|
73
|
3
|
|
|
74
|
3
|
|
|
75
|
3
|
|
|
76
|
3
|
|
|
77
|
3
|
|
|
78
|
2
|
|
|
79
|
2
|
|
|
80
|
2
|
|
|
81
|
2
|
|
|
82
|
2
|
|
|
83
|
2
|
|
|
84
|
2
|
|
|
85
|
2
|
|
|
86
|
2
|
|
|
87
|
2
|
|
|
88
|
2
|
|
|
89
|
D.J. Chark
|
1
|
|
90
|
1
|
News and Notes
Tyreek Hill looks headed toward a suspension to open the 2019 season. However, Chiefs officials are now stating they expect it to be just four games or less. With the latest rumors on Hill making it seem only a matter of time until he is back on the field, his dynasty value has sky-rocketed. He will never be valued as highly as he was at the end of the 2018 season because the heightened risk of further off-field problems should always be accounted for. However, if he is back on the field doing Tyreek Hill things in the fall, he could easily see his dynasty trade value bounce back to 80% or more of what it was before the domestic abuse allegations. It may already be difficult to buy for much less than that at this point.
Andy Isabella has been a beneficiary of the hype surrounding the new Arizona offense. Isabella’s stock has risen following reports that have him favored to start in the three-wide receiver base offense. If best ball drafts are any indicator, fantasy drafters are starting to buy into the hype with Isabella. His ADP seems to rise a couple of spots every week and it isn’t uncommon to now see him go off the board in the 10th or 11th round of best ball drafts as the 2nd rookie wide receiver behind only N’Keal Harry.
D.K. Metcalf also is regularly going as the second rookie off the board in recent 2019 season-long drafts. Seattle is notorious for over-hyping players. That being said, it is hard not to get excited when Russell Wilson says he thinks “DK is looking really, really special,” and that he “can do anything and everything and he’s tremendous.” If Metcalf makes some highlight reel plays in the preseason, he could quickly emerge as a top-50 overall dynasty asset before the season starts.
Deebo Samuel is also worth monitoring, though the buzz has been more muted. While none of the reports out of San Francisco have been especially newsworthy, Samuel is quietly having a strong offseason. His value doesn’t seem to have risen in dynasty leagues and he is still going off the board outside of the top-15 rounds in season-long leagues. However, it is hard to figure out why and probably a good idea to expect that to change sooner than later. Samuel has already locked down a starting job across from Dante Pettis in what has the potential to be a potent San Francisco offense. The WR1 job is there for the taking. According to one recent poll of 49ers fans, 25% expect Samuel to lead the team’s wide receivers in targets. Would any other rookie wide receiver in this year’s class garner 25% of their team’s fan vote in a similar poll? Keep an eye on Samuel as a potential riser over the next two months, especially if he is able to quickly force a 1A/1B type of split with Pettis.
Veteran Targets
Marvin Jones has been a poster child for the viability of a “Zero RB” dynasty strategy, in which you focus on acquiring elite running backs and a top tight end and don’t go overboard trying to land big names for your WR2 and WR3 spots. Jones remains in his prime and a decent bet for WR2 or strong WR3 fantasy numbers, yet is typically going outside the top 100 overall in startup drafts. If you are looking to add a starting-caliber wide receiver while keeping all of your prime assets at other positions, Jones is an ideal target.
Tyler Lockett has seen his dynasty trade value rise slowly but steadily over the past few months. He might still be a bargain. Just 26-years old and locked in alongside a hyper-efficient quarterback, Lockett looks like a strong WR2 option in 2019 and beyond.
Sterling Shepard has a good shot to emerge as the top pass catcher for the Giants. He isn’t the most exciting name at this point of his career, but the 26-year old should be a productive addition for contenders in need of a startable depth option at the wide receiver position.
Sell High Opportunities?
There is no reason whatsoever to panic sell any of the following young players. However, it may be at least exploring their trade value this month if you are a contender in need of a veteran boost. Even non-contenders would be wise to explore the market. Any 2020 1st-rounder would be worth considering given the strength of that class.
A.J. Brown is getting harder and harder to muster enthusiasm for in the short term. He is going
