Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings.
This is the final edition of the 2019 season. Thank you for joining us weekly. Feel free to reach out to the Footballguys Dynasty staff for questions or feedback.
Quarterback
Tefertiller
Cam Newton – While Newton is soon undergoing foot surgery, he should have taken care of months ago, we move him up this week due to the optimism of the veteran coming back at full strength for another organization. The Panthers offense did Newton no favors the past few years with lack of talent at receiver and a conservative offensive game plan.
Ben Roethlisberger – Similar to Newton, there is optimism Roethlisberger comes back in 2020. The Steelers have the weapons to keep the aging veteran as a fantasy starter on a weekly basis. He is a strong “buy” for me in dynasty leagues.
Ryan Tannehill – Tannehill is playing at a high level, carrying the Titans to playoff contention. A contract extension would help his dynasty value as he has flourished in the Tennessee offense.
Drew Lock – The rookie played like his status against the Chiefs but there is no denying that he is the frontrunner for the Broncos starting gig in 2020. Before the loss to Kansas City, Lock put up to stellar performances, leading Denver to consecutive wins in his first two NFL starts.
Mitchell Trubisky – We had Trubisky low, very low. His recent play has caused a re-evaluation and so we moved him up. While far from a reliable fantasy starter, Trubisky is still young and has time to get his play back on track.
Hicks
Dwayne Haskins - Haskins had his best game in the NFL to date against the Eagles. While he only has limited opportunities before the end of the season, at this stage he has not given the franchise a reason to not consider other options heading into the 2020 season. This will only be made worse by a new head coach wanting to have his guy at the helm. At this stage, it is hard to rate Haskins moving forward. With Washington having a probable top-three pick in the draft, conjecture will be rampant.
Drew Lock - After a spectacular start to his NFL career against the Chargers and Texans, Drew Lock came crashing back to earth against Kansas City. He looked rattled, made poor decisions and generally looked like a rookie. The good news is that the Lions and Raiders remain on his schedule, so he should regain his confidence reasonably quickly. Where this leaves his future remains to be seen. He should head into the 2020 season as the unquestioned starter and depending on how that team is built, he could be a fantasy option as early as next year.
Parsons
Daniel Jones - Jones is off to a solid start and is above the starter threshold historically in terms of touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jones has the mobility trump card for fantasy purposes. Jones is one of the better QB2 options in superflex heading into the offseason.
Carson Wentz - Wentz has mired through a tough situation in terms of his surrounding weapons with DeSean Jackson missing essentially the entire season and Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor both missing significant time. However, Wentz has pushed through with a quality season and 25 touchdowns to just seven interceptions with quality rushing numbers. In 2020 the weapons are likely to improve, especially at wide receiver, and Wentz's stock is pointing up.
Running Back
Parsons
Alvin Kamara - While Kamara is still a sturdy dynasty asset, I question his general consensus view as a top-5 dynasty back heading into 2020. Yes, the touchdowns have been down this season, but also Kamara is more of a 1A back in a rotation more than a workhorse type to carry a lofty draft or trade cost. I would be pivoting to other backs or a cornerstone wide receiver this offseason.
Joe Mixon - Mixon is one of the elite breakout running backs for 2020. Mixon is coming into his own over the second half of the season with three games of 150+ total yards and the Bengals are finally getting healthy on the offensive line. Add a quarterback in the offseason and get a healthy A.J. Green (possibly) and John Ross back and Mixon should see a marked situation upgrade to match his high-level talent to become a top-5 consensus back next season.
Tefertiller
Derrick Henry – There is no denying Henry’s spectacular play the past two months. This has led me to move him into elite RB1 status level. A contract extension for quarterback Ryan Tannehill would solidify his standing over the offseason.
Joe Mixon – After a slow start, Mixon has emerged to lead the Bengals offense. Mixon has even added value as a reliable receiver.
Derrius Guice – Guice has been prone to injury throughout his brief career, missing almost all the games with multiple knee injuries. With the new crop of incoming rookies, Guice’s value must fall.
Raheem Mostert – Mostert has seized control of the 49ers running game and does not look to cede control. Dynasty players should make a low offer for Mostert this offseason just to test his owner’s valuation.
Hicks
Chris Carson - After a very good 2018 season, Chris Carson only got better in 2019. He has seen off the challenge from the often-injured higher draft pick in Rashaad Penny and established the backfield in Seattle as his own. He has improved as a receiver and can be considered a reliable bottom end RB1 moving forward. His running is strong and powerful and had at least 15 carries in all but one game, with more than 20 in over half of them.
Carlos Hyde - After seeing more clubs than a DJ in the last year, Carlos Hyde had his best season with the Texans in 2019. At age 29 it is unlikely he will see a huge free-agent deal as he comes off-contract. At best the Texans like what Hyde has done and he gets another one-year deal. At worst he must try and establish himself on another team.
Raheem Mostert - In such a crowded backfield, Raheem Mostert has established himself as the most reliable and potent threat for the 49ers. Mostert has been signed to a very team-friendly deal for another two years and should be moved much higher on dynasty radars. He is unlikely to ever see a full load given the competition and variety available to the team, so his ranking could be quite volatile.
Kenyan Drake - What happens with Kenyan Drake in the offseason will be one of the more interesting stories to follow in 2020. He has given the Cardinals a versatile threat in the backfield culminating in a four-touchdown performance against the Browns. He does, however, come off his rookie deal and will be keen to test the free-agent market.
David Montgomery - Given the amount of touches rookie David Montgomery has seen for the Chicago Bears, it must be disappointing to see the results so far. Montgomery wouldn’t be the first running back to struggle in year one and turn around and have a hall of fame career, but the odds seem stacked against it. Montgomery has to be treated with caution moving forward.
Wide Receiver
Hicks
Breshad Perriman - A former first-round pick for the Baltimore Ravens, Breshad Perriman is taking advantage of the absence of first Mike Evans and now potentially Chris Godwin. Perriman has roughly seen the same snap counts all season but is now catching the eye of Jameis Winston and producing starting fantasy wide receiver stats. What now? He becomes a free agent and a new situation brings considerable risk. Worth monitoring, but a little bit of caution would be advised.
A.J. Brown - To anyone watching A.J. Brown simply is a beast on the field. In a reasonably conservative offense, Brown has simply destroyed opposing defenses all season. He has done this with limited targets, after all, he is barely in the top 50 targeted wide receivers. Long term I worry about his frame. This isn’t the case of a body shape like Dez Bryant or Terrell Owens, he is bigger than those guys. With the right advice and emphasizing him as the focal point of the passing game, he should be a great receiver for years to come. He does have a considerable downside though.
Anthony Miller - A second-round pick from the 2018 draft, Anthony Miller has developed nicely, if slower than what the Bears wanted. In the second half of the 2019 season, he has produced as a good fantasy borderline WR1/WR2 and he will look to build upon that in 2020. The presence of Allen Robinson limits his upside, as does the inconsistent quarterback play, but Miller is making the most of his opportunities.
Sterling Shepard - After suffering two devastating concussions at the start of the year, Sterling Shepard moved right down my board. The emergence of Darius Slayton also didn’t help in the long-term prognostications of Shepard, but since his return to the field, he has looked good and deserves reconsideration. The Giants wisely signed him to a long-term deal before he became a free agent so he should remain an integral part of whoever the head coach is in 2020.
Greg Ward - It is clear that the injuries that have decimated the Eagles wide receiving corps have led to opportunities for others, like Greg Ward. Ward is limited as a receiver, but the former quarterback is smart and has good hands. What opportunities are there beyond 2019 remains to be seen, but at best he presents as a depth option rather than in the regular starting rotation.
Parsons
DK Metcalf - Metcalf is a rare athlete with elite size and speed. Metcalf has already shed the bust label with a historically strong rookie season (819 yards, six touchdowns through Week 15) and will be attached to Russell Wilson for the foreseeable future. At worst, Metcalf is a touchdown-centric WR3 for fantasy purposes with an upside of a WR1 as soon as 2020.
A.J. Brown - Brown has produced despite being on a low-volume Tennessee passing attack and despite Corey Davis being on the same depth chart. Brown was an elite metric prospect and has a shot to hit 1,000 yards as a rookie without strong target numbers. Brown is one of the biggest risers from early 2019 rookie drafts to late in his rookie season this year.
Tefertiller
Odell Beckham - Potential and promotion only go so far. After making noise and exiting New York, Beckham is playing the same tune in Cleveland after a lackluster season. Sure, he is a great player, but how large of a benefit of the doubt should we give year after year? He still is in our WR1 tier, just toward the bottom after starting the season toward the top.
D.J. Moore – Moore has quietly put up an elite fantasy season with Kyle Allen – surprisingly – at quarterback. With an expected quarterback upgrade in 2020, Moore is a player every dynasty player should invest in …. heavily.
A.J. Brown – Brown has become the lone reliable receiver for Tannehill. His big-play ability has made me a believer, pushing him up to fringe WR1 status. The low-volume Tennessee pass offense might limit the short-term upside, but Brown is a star in the making, well worth the perceived short-term risk.
Darius Slayton – In the last three weeks, Slayton has become the top pass-catcher for the Giants. He has quickly surpassed Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard.
Antonio Brown – Brown was moved up the rankings in anticipation of him clearing up the legal worries and playing in 2020. There were reports late last week that many teams are interested in signing Brown once everything is resolved. Expect a short suspension to begin the season. While risky, there is large upside in the right offense.
Deebo Samuel – Samuel has flashed potential the past few weeks. He appears to finally be healthy and is making big plays every game. Samuel will only get better as he focuses on the receiver position. He could be a star.
Tight End
Tefertiller
Mike Gesicki – Gesicki was too low and now sits at the low end of the fantasy TE1 tier. His fantasy production has improved throughout the season. We expect a big leap in 2020 as Gesicki enters year three.
Tyler Higbee – Higbee has flashed potential with Gerald Everett sidelined. He has emerged to become Goff’s second-most reliable target, behind Robert Woods. Locked into a new contract, expect to see Higbee in the Los Angeles starting lineup for the next couple of years. He will be a fringe fantasy starter during that time.
Mark Andrews – Andrews has put up solid fantasy numbers in the run-oriented Ravens offense. Even with three tight ends on the field, and a low number of pass attempts, Andrews is the top pass catcher.
Blake Jarwin – Jarwin is slowly taking over the tight end job from Jason Witten. He has made clutch reception the past few weeks and has earned the trust of quarterback Dak Prescott.
Hicks
Tyler Higbee - After three and a half years of average production as a receiver, Tyler Higbee has benefitted from the absence of Gerald Everett, a change in philosophy by the Rams and been the surprise waiver wire addition of the season. Three, hundred-yard games in a row is a rare feat, but what that means depends on how the Rams offense looks in 2020. Ride the wave while you can but expect it to crash at any time.
Dallas Goedert - After an awful start to 2019, Dallas Goedert has exceeded his numbers from 2018 and somehow ended up as a borderline TE1. The biggest obstacle to further success, however, remains the presence of Zach Ertz. Ertz is locked into the Eagles for another year or two, by which time Goedert will be off his rookie contract. It is an awfully long time to hold Goedert on a roster, but he is clearly an elite Tight End of the future waiting for a full-time gig.
Jonnu Smith - The athletic ability of Jonnu Smith is there in plain sight but transitioning to becoming Delanie Walkers’ replacement is taking longer than expected. He is still only 24 years old and looks ready to make that leap, but then again, he always has. Smith will be an intriguing option to consider and could be obtainable in a lot of leagues. If the Titans commit to using the position, Smith could easily ascend to the elite bracket. If not, well we just see more of the same.
Parsons
Noah Fant - Fant has avoided the bust label track in his rookie season, already passed 500 receiving yards and with two monster games of 100+ yards to his profile. Fant has rare speed for the position yet is valued as a poor man's version of Evan Engram, offering profit potential heading into Year 2.
Darren Waller - Waller is having a career year yet is underrated entering the offseason. Waller is likely in the TE10-15 range for startup drafts despite surpassing 1,000 yards with a couple of games to play. Oakland is likely to upgrade their wide receiver position, but Waller was already resigned to an extension as a vote of confidence for the near-term involvement in the offseason.
If you would like to review our most recent Dynasty rankings, here is a link.
