DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 13

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KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

• With three games already played on Thanksgiving and two more scheduled for prime time, the main slate features only 11 games this week. Some of our favorite offenses to target -- Dallas, New Orleans, Atlanta, Houston, and Seattle -- are off the board, leaving Oakland at Kansas City (over/under 51) as the marquee game for stacking purposes. Contrarian ways to gain access to the high total include LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams for the Chiefs, and perhaps Zay Jones or Keelan Doss for the Raiders with Hunter Renfrow nursing a punctured lung. Other popular matchup-based offenses to stack include Green Bay, Carolina, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville.

• Patrick Mahomes II ($7,400), Lamar Jackson ($7,000), and Jameis Winston ($6,300) should top most entrants’ quarterback wishlists, yet we appear headed for Andy Dalton ($4,700) chalk week. The news Dalton would be back behind the wheel for the Bengals broke after DraftKings released Week 13 pricing, leaving him with a backup salary in a matchup against the Jets’ talent-deficient secondary. Dalton and his cheap stacking partners make it easy to splurge on Christian McCaffrey ($10,500), which will vault all parties involved to inflated ownership levels.

• Spending up to McCaffrey should have lots of folks searching for a low-to-mid-range RB2, though Derrick Henry ($7,600), Leonard Fournette ($7,500), Saquon Barkley ($7,400), and Josh Jacobs ($6,900) will be popular standalone plays. The most common cap-saving options include Phillip Lindsay ($5,000), Jonathan Williams ($5,300), and Miles Sanders ($5,400).

• A look at the top wide receiver choices makes it clear why the majority of the field will shop for a thrifty RB2. Tyreek Hill ($8,900), Chris Godwin ($7,700), Mike Evans ($6,900), Davante Adams ($7,00), and D.J. Moore ($6,800) each have highly-exploitable matchups. Tyler Boyd ($5,500) will be chalky as a mid-range WR2 whether he’s stacked with Dalton or not, which is where common roster construction will begin to diverge.

• A portion of the crowd will be tempted to pay a premium for Travis Kelce ($7,200) and Zach Ertz ($6,700) at tight end, while others will assume Jack Doyle’s ($3,300) production will rise with Eric Ebron now on injured reserve. Kelce/Ertz lineups are most likely to have a dollar-store WR3 like Auden Tate ($3,800) or Allen Hurns ($4,00), while those who punt with Doyle can get up to guys like Adams, Evans, and D.J. Chark ($6,600).

• Common roster construction rarely features heavy spending at DST and this week should be no different. The Panthers ($3,800) will attract the crowd against Washington as 10-point home favorites, but $2.5-$3K is the maximum budget most people will allocate to the position. Cleveland ($2,600), Baltimore ($2,800), and the LA Chargers ($3,100) look like the usual suspects.

TAKING A STAND ON THE CHALK

These players are the odds-on favorites to score the most fantasy points relative to their respective salaries. The problem is most of your opponents are well aware. Fading popular plays entirely for the sake of differentiating your lineups is rarely the best decision when multi-entering tournaments. Instead, decide how much exposure you are comfortable with for each player in comparison to their projected ownership percentage. Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s highest-owned players:

QB: Andy Dalton (vs. NYJ, $4,700, 3% owned)

Saturday update: Buzzard's Friday update still showed Dalton low-owned. Taking the over on 3% remains a fair bet, but it's safe to say he won't be chalky. He shapes up as a solid tournament play at low-to-moderate ownership, but you may want to avoid playing Dalton with McCaffrey since most people punting quarterback will be doing so to afford a $10,500 running back.

It’s dangerous to stray too far from Buzzard’s early-week ownership projections when trying to peg the chalk, but it feels safe to assume Dalton will pick up steam as we head towards the weekend. Dalton’s demotion had little to do with his play, which was actually quite admirable as the Bengals crumbled to pieces around him. He scored between 18 and 25 DraftKings points in six-out-of-eight starts this season, with his two poor games coming on the road in tough division matchups against the Steelers and Ravens, respectively. The Jets represent one of the softest opponents Dalton will get this season. They’ve allowed the third-most normalized fantasy points per game to enemy quarterbacks over the last five weeks, even with their Week 12 annihilation of Derek Carr included in the sample. Stacking Dalton with Boyd and/or Tate makes a lot of things work this week, but his ownership projection will be key. If he ends up near the top of the charts alongside Mahomes, Jackson, and Winston, fade him as if your life depended on it.

RB: Christian McCaffrey (vs. WAS, $10,500, 30% owned)

No need to spill much digital ink on why the crowd will chase McCaffrey. DraftKings seems to have found his salary ceiling at $10,500. He’s delivered at least 29 fantasy points at that price in three straight games and now finds himself in an unfamiliar position as a 10-point home favorite against a Washington defense that nearly allowed Bo Scarbrough to rush for 100 yards in Week 12. McCaffrey is an auto-play in cash games, but if one-third of the crowd is going to sink $10,500 on any one player, going in the opposite direction is the correct play in tournaments. Passing on McCaffrey is scary but it’s also the clearest path to a unique lineup on this slate.

WR: Tyler Boyd (vs. NYJ, $5,500, 13% owned)

Boyd has it all going in his favor this week. He is coming off a dominant (and spirited) performance against a stingy Steelers pass defense in Week 12 (9-5-101-1), gets to catch passes from a quarterback who actually belongs in the NFL (sorry Ryan Finley), and will enjoy one of the best matchups a wide receiver can ask for at home against the Jets. But if we assume Dalton’s ownership gains momentum, Boyd becomes chalky by association despite a $500 price increase from last week. Boyd’s salary remains far from prohibitive but we have to be concerned about his ceiling in a game with a 41-point total. He’s in the same boat as Dalton in terms of tournament viability. If his early-week ownership projection holds, he’s a fine play. But if he’s 20% or more by Buzzard’s Saturday update, there will be plenty of wide receivers in his price range with lesser ownership and better odds of landing in a first-place lineup.

TE: Zach Ertz (@MIA, $6,700, 12% owned)

Saturday Update: Ertz is nursing a hamstring injury and the Eagles signed a tight end off their practice squad. It seems increasingly likely Ertz will miss the game against Miami, positioning Dallas Goedert to overtake Jack Doyle as the chalkiest tight end on the slate. Goedert is a great play against the Dolphins but lacks the moderate ownership profile that made Ertz so attractive.

Ertz costs a full $2,000 more than he did in Week 9, which speaks to how convincingly he’s bounced back from a mediocre first half. The key to his turnaround, which includes three straight games with 10+ targets and 90+ yards, has been the deterioration of Philadelphia’s wide receiver corps. Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are expected back this week, making it possible Ertz sees fewer targets, but Carson Wentz doesn’t appear to trust any other pass-catcher on the team and the entire Eagles offense gets an efficiency boost playing at Miami. Ertz is best viewed as a wide receiver this week (he costs the same as Odell Beckham against the Steelers by comparison). He’s one of several high-priced tight ends that can also be used in the flex. Don’t sweat his ownership too much or be afraid to play more lineups with two tight ends this week.

DST: Cleveland Browns (@PIT, $2,600, 13% owned)

The price is right for Cleveland’s defense but this would be a much better play if Mason Rudolph hadn’t lost Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback job. Devlin Hodges is no great shakes either, but we can expect the Steelers to come out with a super-conservative gameplan that limits the Browns’ potential to force turnovers. In his only other start this season, Hodges took zero sacks, threw one interception, and averaged just 5.35 adjusted yards per attempt. DST is almost always where you want to fade the chalk and there are plenty of options with a higher ceiling than the Browns this week. Fade Cleveland on the road.

MORE CHALK:

MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUE

You won’t be sneaking these players past your opponents. But their projected ownership percentage is lower than the probability they will score more fantasy points than their salary implies. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their ownership projection.

QB: Kyler Murray (vs. LAR, $6,400, 6% owned)

Murray entered Arizona’s Week 12 bye as one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league, posting between 23 and 31 DraftKings points in each of his last three games (two of which came against the 49ers’ elite pass defense). While Murray is always a threat to generate fantasy points with his legs, it’s encouraging his recent rushing production has been the gravy. He’s completed 67% of his pass attempts over the last three games with seven passing touchdowns against zero interceptions. The visiting Rams were exposed by fellow dual-threat quarterback, Lamar Jackson, last week after facing one of the league’s friendlier schedules against the pass this season. Murray has demonstrated 30+ fantasy point upside in multiple games and LA at Arizona has the potential to breeze past its 47.5-point over/under. He shouldn’t be checking in with less projected ownership than Nick Foles.

RB: Aaron Jones (@NYG, $6,800, 9% owned)

Green Bay is coming off a disastrous primetime loss on the road in San Francisco, which limited Jones to 13 empty carries while Jamaal Williams handled the obvious passing situations. The team couldn’t ask for a better get-right opponent than the Giants, who allow 28 points per game. Whereas the game script favored Williams in Week 12, this one sets up as a Jones game. The crowd is expecting Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to carve up New York’s suspect secondary, but Adams isn’t more than twice as likely to reach his ceiling than Jones, which is what the ownership projections currently imply. Even if Rodgers-Adams is one of the better stacks on the slate, Jones should still shoulder a heavy workload in the second half as the Packers look to chew up the clock, leaving him multiple outs to reach tournament value.

WR: Christian Kirk (vs. LAR, $5,700, 18% owned)

With 19 targets in his last two games (and a slate-breaking 40-point explosion in Week 10), Kirk has emerged as the preferred stacking partner for Murray. A mid-season trade for star cornerback Jalen Ramsey was supposed to shore up LA’s secondary, but the former Jaguar has been a disappointment thus far. Since coming over to the Rams in Week 7, Ramsey’s 253 yards allowed in coverage ranks inside the bottom-20 cornerbacks. If we’re operating under the assumption LA at Arizona will be high-scoring, doubling the field on your exposure to Kirk is the right idea. He’s locked in for double-digit targets and possesses the splash-play explosiveness that helps win GPPs.

TE: Hunter Henry (@DEN, $5,500, 7% owned)

Henry is priced in No Man’s Land with most of the crowd looking to spend all the way up to Kelce/Ertz or all the way down to Jack Doyle. We know what to expect from Henry most weeks -- about 7-10 targets, 5-7 receptions, 60-90 yards, and a 50/50 shot at scoring a touchdown. While defense vs. position matchups are especially tricky to figure out for tight ends, a date with the Broncos could offer Henry some additional upside. Opponents target tight ends on 24% of their pass attempts when facing Denver, which is the fourth-highest rate in the league. Their 55% pass success rate allowed to the position is also a bottom-10 ranking. The Chargers are favored on the road in Denver with Drew Lock possibly making his first NFL start. Philip Rivers should enjoy some short fields in this game and Henry is dominant in the red zone.

DST: Baltimore Ravens (vs. SF, $2,800, 8% owned)

The Ravens salary is one of the stranger ones on the slate. They’re 5.5-point home favorites against the 49ers and haven’t scored fewer than 13 DraftKings points in a game since Week 6, yet their price dropped $700 from Week 12. As effective as the 49ers offense has been, Jimmy Garoppolo makes a handful of questionable decisions in every game. He has 10 interceptions and a pair of touchdown throws to the wrong team this season. The pressure will be on Garoppolo to keep pace with Lamar Jackson, creating an opening for Baltimore’s opportunistic defense to force multiple turnovers, as usual.

MORE MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

Hitting on one-or-more of these players will gain you massive leverage on the field. Due to their low ownership, the better they perform, the faster your roster separates in the standings. Keep in mind, using a 5%-owned player in only 2-out-of-10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament. Be careful not to over-invest in these players, but you’ll need at least two from this ownership tier in your lineup for a shot at first place in most large-field GPPs.

QB: Kyle Allen (vs. WAS, $5,500, 2% owned)

If you believe Vegas set the right line for Washington at Carolina (Panthers -10), Allen’s projected ownership is a miscalculation by the crowd. With Christian McCaffrey projected for roughly 15x as much ownership, Allen is the definition of a leverage play:

• McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel are explosive receivers, more than capable of burning Washington’s secondary. The 25 points Carolina is implied to score can easily come via the pass.

• Allen is coming off one of his best showings of the season, a 256-3-0 passing line on the road in a near-upset of New Orleans.

• Washington has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt this season and was smoked by Sam Darnold (294-4-1) prior to last week’s decent showing against Jeff Driskel and the Lions.
  

RB: Derrius Guice (@CAR, $4,500, 1% owned)

Guice saw his snap-share increase to 43% last week from 29% in his Week 11 return from injury. He’s a thin play splitting reps down the middle with Adrian Peterson (33% snap share last week), but he’s worthy of 5-7% exposure in a matchup against the Panthers. Carolina has allowed 25 runs of 15+ yards this season, which is the second-most in the league. Guice is an explosive runner, has fresh legs, and Washington coach Bill Callahan’s only game plan is to stick with the run for as long as he can.

WR: Chris Conley (vs. TB, $4,500, 9% owned)

In three games played with Nick Foles this season, Conley has 24 targets to D.J. Chark’s 25. Chark has earned his standing as one of the chalkiest wide receivers on the slate headed into a matchup against one of the league’s worst defensive backfields, but he isn’t twice as likely as Conley, who led the team with 176 air yards last week at Tennessee, to be the Jaguars receiver who hangs a big game on Tampa Bay. Conley will line up opposite Buccaneers cornerback Jamel Dean on the majority of his routes. Per Pro Football Focus, only two cornerbacks playing on the main slate have allowed more fantasy points per route covered than Dean this season.

TE: Mark Andrews (vs. SF, $5,700, 4% owned)

Andrews is in the same bucket as Henry this week -- an elite producer priced too close to the chalk to command the attention he deserves. The crowd will shy away from Andrews more so than Henry due to a Week 12 dud (6.5 fantasy points on three targets) and his Week 13 opponent. Assuming San Francisco can stay competitive for most of the game though, Andrews should be relied upon for about seven targets, a number he’s reached in eight-out-of-eleven games this season. The matchup against the 49ers isn’t a great one but game environment trumps defensive matchups, especially for tight ends, and Andrews is in a great spot for high-end production. Baltimore is favored by 5.5 points at home, implied to score over 25 points, and Andrews’ five red-zone touchdowns are the most on the team.

DST: Kansas City Chiefs (vs. OAK, $2,700, 5% owned)

Oakland has been one of the worst matchups to target for opposing defenses this season. They’ve allowed just 16 sacks, which is tied for the fewest in the league, and Derek Carr doesn’t take enough risks to throw many interceptions. Going overweight on Kansas City’s defense is all about game flow. If the Chiefs win by double-digits, as Vegas is predicting, they should get an opportunity to pin their ears back and get after Carr while the Raiders are in hurry-up mode. In their 28-10 road win over Oakland in Week 2, Kansas City scored 11 DraftKings points and they’re always friskier at home. As an added bonus, the odds the Chiefs DST is able to run back a kick are higher than most other teams thanks to lightning-fast Mecole Hardman.

MORE CONTRARIAN PLAYS

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