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KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

• Most of the field will be fixated on two games this week — Arizona at Tampa Bay and Atlanta at New Orleans. The key contributors from all four teams will be mainstays in tournament lineups. If you’re looking for sneaky exposure to the 50+ point implied totals in each game, David Johnson, O.J. Howard, Ted Ginn Jr, and the returning Tre’Quan Smith have high enough ceilings and low enough projected ownership to qualify.

• Quarterback ownership will be flat but bunched together at the top price tier, where Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Kyler Murray, Drew Brees, and Patrick Mahomes II will be among the most popular plays. We can safely expect the majority of our opponents to spend at least $6,500 at the position. Ryan Tannehill ($5,100) profiles as the most common punt option as he tries to keep up with Kansas City at home.

• About 25% of the field in last week’s Milly Maker spent $10,000 of their cap on Christian McCaffrey in a poor on-paper matchup. After watching McCaffrey shred the Titans for 40.6 DraftKings points, it’s hard to imagine less than 30% of entrants squeezing him in at $10,500 this week. Saquon Barkley ($8,800) will join McCaffrey as high-priced chalk, leaving little room for spending at RB2. Common roster construction should inflate the ownership of low-to-mid price backs like David Montgomery ($5,300), Devin Singletary ($5,000), and Ronald Jones II ($4,300).

• One expensive wide receiver will appear on most rosters, with Mike Evans or Michael Thomas the leading candidates. Heavy spending at quarterback, RB1, and WR1 means the majority of our opponents will be combing the $4K-$5K range to fill their other two wide receiver spots. Expect to see guys like Zach Pascal ($5,300), D.J. Moore ($5,200), Christian Kirk ($5,200), Jamison Crowder ($5,000), DeVante Parker ($4,800), and Curtis Samuel ($4,600) rounding out plenty of rosters this week. The easiest path to a contrarian lineup might be to build around multiple wide receivers in the $6K-$7K range.

• Zach Ertz, George Kittle, Darren Waller, and Hunter Henry are missing from the slate and Travis Kelce’s production hasn’t matched his TE1 salary all season. Austin Hooper ($5,500) and Mark Andrews ($5,200) will attract significant ownership as a result, but this week’s stock rosters won’t have enough room to fit them. Bargain tight ends like Jack Doyle ($3,600), Greg Olsen ($3,600), and possibly even Mike Gesicki ($3,100) should command more attention than they probably warrant as entrants look for ways to keep their McCaffrey lineups under the cap.

• Baltimore and Indianapolis jump out as high-priced defenses to target, but similar to tight end, DST is a difficult position to splurge on if you’re trying to fit McCaffrey, Evans/Thomas, and an expensive quarterback. Lower-priced options that should attract the crowd include the Rams ($3,000), Giants ($2,800), and Browns ($2,500).

TAKING A STAND ON THE CHALK

These players are the odds-on favorites to score the most fantasy points relative to their respective salaries. The problem is most of your opponents are well aware. Fading popular plays entirely for the sake of differentiating your lineups is rarely the best decision when multi-entering tournaments. Instead, decide how much exposure you are comfortable with for each player in comparison to their projected ownership percentage. Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s highest-owned players:

QB: Jameis Winston (vs. ARI, $6,800, 13% owned)

Lamar Jackson should command more ownership at only $500 more, but the popularity of both Evans and Chris Godwin will help push Winston into chalk territory. The matchup validates Winston as a strong play. No team has allowed more normalized fantasy points per game to enemy quarterbacks over the last five weeks than the Cardinals, who were last seen giving up season-highs of 317 yards and four touchdowns to Jimmy Garoppolo on Thursday Night Football. Winston has gotten his act together since Tampa’s Week 7 bye, with a pair of 24+ point performances (and only two total interceptions) on the road. He’s as high-variance as quarterbacks come, so you’ll have to live with mega-bust potential any time you roster him, but there is no good reason to fade Winston in this spot. Come in with at least as much exposure as the field.

RB: David Montgomery (vs. DET, $5,300, 20% owned)

Our opponents will need a thrift store RB2 to pair with McCaffrey’s huge salary. Montgomery’s price-point, recent production, and enticing matchup check all the boxes. The Lions have allowed the third-most normalized fantasy points to opposing running backs over the last five weeks. It isn’t hard to imagine Montgomery replicating Josh Jacobs’ Week 9 rushing line against Detroit (28-120-2) with Chicago favored at home. The only problem with following the crowd on Montgomery is the Bears’ bottom-five scoring offense. Chicago averages just over 17 points per game, yet Montgomery has seen a league-high 6 carries from inside the five-yard line over the last two weeks and converted those attempts into touchdowns at an above-average 50% rate. Unless you believe Vegas’ 41.5-point implied total for this game is too low, Montgomery’s scoring opportunities are due to regress. He looks like bad chalk.

WR: Mike Evans (vs. ARI, $7,600, 22% owned)

The only reason Michael Thomas might come in higher-owned than Evans this week is Arizona cornerback Patrick Peterson’s reputation for shutting down the opposition. But Peterson’s return from a six-game suspension hasn’t stopped the Cardinals from hemorrhaging fantasy points to enemy wideouts. Last week, Emmanuel Sanders caught four-out-of-five targets for 90 yards while in Peterson’s coverage. And Michael Thomas caught all four of his targets for 40 yards and a touchdown on his routes against Peterson the week prior. Evans has accumulated 105.4 DraftKings points over his last three games, on the strength of a staggering 15 targets per game. Unless you’re irrationally confident we’re headed into a Jameis Winston implosion game, Evans’ salary and projected ownership are more than fair. Make him one of your core players.

TE: Mark Andrews (@CIN, $5,200, 17% owned)

It’s strange a player who hasn’t exceeded six DraftKings points since Week 6 is the chalk, but such is the landscape of the tight end position on this slate. Andrews is in a great spot to bounce back in Cincinnati. Last week was the first time all season he failed to command at least seven targets in a game, which isn’t surprising considering no Ravens pass-catcher was required to run more than 17 pass routes in an easy win over New England. When Andrews last played the Bengals in Week 6, he posted an 8-6-99-0 receiving line, which isn’t too far off a baseline projection for what we should expect this week. On a slate almost completely devoid of high-ceiling tight ends, taking a strong stand on Andrews is defensible. But there is so much variance in week-to-week scoring at the position, it’s usually best to fade the chalk. Don’t exceed the crowd’s exposure.

DST: Indianapolis Colts (vs. MIA, $3,500, 10% owned)

The Colts have a middle of the road defensive unit, but they’ve shown a nice floor over their last four games and have what looks like a can’t miss matchup at home against Miami. Everyone knows the Dolphins are terrible, but their lack of talent on the offensive line can’t be overstated. Miami has allowed at least three sacks in all games but one this year, and at least four in six-out-of-eight. Indianapolis is essentially starting the game at a 1x salary multiple before factoring in a single turnover or the possibility of a defensive touchdown. They’re a fine choice this week, but you should rarely overplay any DST.

MORE CHALK:

MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUE

You won’t be sneaking these players past your opponents. But their projected ownership percentage is lower than the probability they will score more fantasy points than their salary implies. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their ownership projection.

QB: Matt Ryan (@NO, $6,100, 6% owned)

Hopefully, recency bias and fear of New Orleans’ excellent all-around defense conspire to keep Ryan below the public’s radar. The Saints are unquestionably a difficult matchup, but Ryan has thrived in negative scripts all season. Despite Atlanta’s 1-7 record, he ranks just outside the top-5 quarterbacks in fantasy points per game and has been one of the position’s most reliable producers. Prior to leaving early in Week 7 due to a sprained ankle, Ryan had scored between 20 and 36 DraftKings points in every game this season and cleared 25 in four-out-of-six. He was back at practice and feeling “pretty good” on Wednesday, so it appears the bye week gave his ankle enough time to recover. Assuming he’s at or near full health, Ryan’s baseline projection would put him close to a 3x salary multiple in a high-scoring game environment.

RB: Nick Chubb (vs. BUF, $8,200, 17% owned)

Football Outsiders ranks the Bills fifth in pass defense efficiency but 30th against the run. Chubb represents Cleveland’s only hope of moving the ball on Buffalo and his ownership will be shaded by the return of Kareem Hunt. Earlier this week, head coach Freddie Kitchens declared Hunt would definitely have a role, which was perceived by some as the end of Chubb’s days as a bell-cow. Kitchens’ quotes from Thursday’s press conference didn’t get the same media attention but painted a clearer picture of his anticipated usage. Specifically, Kitchens compared Hunt to Antonio Callaway, who also missed most of training camp with an injury before serving a suspension. Callaway returned to a 43% snap-share in his first game back before regaining his usual role. Chubb ceded 40% of the snaps to Dontrell Hilliard last week but still ended up handling 77% of Cleveland’s backfield touches. For this week at least, Hilliard’s Week 9 usage (seven touches) represents Hunt’s ceiling, leaving Chubb all the opportunity he needs to shred the Bills’ suspect rush defense at home.

WR: Cooper Kupp (@ PIT, $7,300, 11% owned)

The Rams aren’t getting much hype on the road against the Steelers and those spending up at wide receiver are looking at Evans, Godwin, and Julio Jones ahead of Kupp in the same price range. With a pair of slate-breaking games already under his belt this season, Kupp — the cumulative WR3 in PPR scoring — is set up nicely for another ceiling game in Pittsburgh. Slot receivers and tight ends have gotten over on the Steelers all season and Kupp (one of the game’s premier slot receivers) is often deployed like a field-stretching tight end by head coach Sean McVay. Per Pro Football Focus, only three cornerbacks expected to be active this week have allowed more yards per route covered than Pittsburgh nickel corner, Mike Hilton. Jared Goff doesn’t need to spot the mismatch to force the ball to Kupp 10-12 times, but it certainly can’t hurt.

TE: Mike Gesicki (@IND, $3,100, 9% owned)

Gesicki’s early-week ownership projection is reasonable, but he might not stick in the mid-range. Tweets like this one are likely to move the needle for the crowd and threaten to make Gesicki a poor tournament play:

Mike Gesicki looks quietly positioned for a second-half breakout:

* Huge opportunity opening post-Preston Williams ACL tear
* 40+ yards in 3 of last 4
* No. 3 among all TEs in Air Yards since #Dolphins bye
* FitzMagic showing willingness to force it to him up the seam

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) November 7, 2019

Everything Silva tweeted about Gesicki’s opportunity in the wake of Preston Williams’ ACL tear is true. He’s much better equipped to get downfield and make for contested catches than any of Miami’s replacement wide receivers. Athletic tight ends have also generally performed well against the Colts, who have allowed 17% more PPR fantasy points to the position than league average this season. But if Gesicki’s ownership projection doubles by the weekend, it’s going to take more than theoretical upside and a decent matchup to make him a worthy play in tournaments. Make sure to check Steve Buzzard’s projections on Sunday morning before deciding on your exposure.

DST: Green Bay Packers (vs. CAR, $3,200, 3% owned)

The Packers are in an ideal bounce-back spot after getting embarrassed by an inferior Chargers team last week. Kyle Allen has performed admirably in place of Cam Newton, but he’s starting to look more like an inexperienced quarterback without much pocket presence. Over the last three games, Allen has been sacked 12 times, thrown four interceptions, and lost a fumble. He’s in over his head in Green Bay’s first game at Lambeau Field since Week 7. This has all the makings of a blowout Packers win, which should propel the defense to their first double-digit scoring performance on DraftKings since Week 3.

MORE MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

Hitting on one-or-more of these players will gain you massive leverage on the field. Due to their low ownership, the better they perform, the faster your roster separates in the standings. Keep in mind, using a 5%-owned player in only 2-out-of-10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament. Be careful not to over-invest in these players, but you’ll need at least two from this ownership tier in your lineup for a shot at first place in most large-field GPPs.

QB: Sam Darnold (vs. NYG, $5,800, 1% owned)

Darnold couldn’t capitalize on a cupcake matchup against Miami last week, so why should we trust him here? The short answer is we shouldn’t. The Jets can’t protect him, Adam Gase is coaching himself out of a job, and for his own part, Darnold’s terrible decision making has been difficult to watch. But his 260-1-1 passing line (69% completion rate) would have looked much better against the Dolphins had a bang-bang Ryan Griffin touchdown catch not been overturned upon review. The Giants have allowed three touchdown passes in back-to-back games and their secondary has consistently been one of the easiest for opposing wide receivers to beat downfield. Give the Darnold-Robby Anderson stack one last chance. If it fails again, you can erase the idea from your playbook for the duration of the season.

RB: Jamaal Williams (vs. CAR, $5,200, 2% owned)

Williams doesn’t exactly scream GPP upside, but playing him this week could provide all sorts of leverage:

• Williams has handled 40% of Green Bay’s running back touches over the last four weeks and scored at least 13 DraftKings points in every game. He’s not operating as a backup.

• His 29% share of Green Bay’s red-zone targets leads all running backs since Week 6. Williams has been overly reliant on touchdowns but Green Bay is clearly scheming to pass him the ball when they get within striking distance.

• Carolina has allowed the second-most normalized fantasy points to enemy running backs over the last five weeks.

• His backfield mate Aaron Jones is projected for six times the ownership but is not six times as likely to deliver tournament value, especially when considering their respective salaries.

• David Montgomery and Devin Singletary are slated for massive ownership in the $5K salary range. If one or both busts and Williams hits 20 DraftKings points, your lineup will fly past large chunks of the field.
  

WR: Chester Rogers (vs. MIA, $4,100, 2% owned)

T.Y. Hilton, Devin Funchess, and Parris Campbell are all on the shelf, leaving the Colts without many options at wide receiver. Rogers’ usual ~60% snap-share should increase by about one-third, which sets him up as a pivot-play away from the trendy Zach Pascal. 86% of Rogers’ routes have come from the slot this season. He’ll line up across from Miami nickel corner, Chris Lammons, who has allowed a 133.9 passer rating on throws into his coverage this season. Expect Rogers to convert a bunch of short-area targets. If he manages to find the end zone while Pascal or Jack Doyle fails to, he may just find his way onto first-place lineups.

TE: Gerald Everett (@PIT, $4,500, 4% owned)

Everett is priced in no man’s land, as most entrants will either spend up to Andrews or Austin Hooper or down to Jack Doyle or Mike Gesicki. Prior to a Week 8 dud against Cincinnati in which the Rams were able to take their foot off the gas, Everett had commanded at least eight targets in three out of his previous four games. As mentioned in the Cooper Kupp blurb above, the best way to attack Pittsburgh’s pass defense is with tight ends and slot receivers. He’s not a high-exposure play but makes for a high-upside lineup differentiator in about 10% of your lineups.

DST: Kansas City Chiefs (@TEN, $2,700, 6% owned)

We saw what happened last week when Ryan Tannehill was forced to play from behind against an aggressive defense — four sacks, one fumble recovery, and two interceptions. With Patrick Mahomes II set to return, we’re almost assured of a game script that includes 35+ Tannehill dropbacks. The Chiefs defense may let up 20+ points, but they’ve flashed a ceiling in plus matchups this year, most recently with a 24-point Week 7 performance against the Broncos in Denver. Tannehill may actually garner a fair amount of ownership due to his low salary, which adds a bit of leverage to playing Kansas City in the event he implodes.

MORE CONTRARIAN PLAYS

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