DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 1

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KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

• The highest Vegas-implied team totals on the slate belong to the Chiefs (28), Eagles (27.5), Rams (27) and Cowboys (27) but save for Travis Kelce, no players from these teams project to be particularly high-owned. Strangely, it appears there is some leverage to be gained in Week 1 by simply chasing the offenses expected to score the most points.

• Our opponents seem fixated on Minnesota, where Kirk Cousins ($5,500) and Dalvin Cook ($6,000) both look like bargains at home against a Falcons team that allowed 26.4 points per game last season. As usual, it’s easy to project where Cousins’ passes will be aimed. Adam Thielen ($6,800) and Stefon Diggs ($6,700) will both be popular as a result (keep an eye on Diggs' hamstring injury) and Julio Jones ($8,000) will receive an ownership bump due to game stacks, as long as he’s not seriously considering sitting out.

• Tampa Bay is a short favorite at home against San Francisco and the over/under is up to 49.5 points. Jameis Winston ($6,600) should end up the most popular quarterback in the top salary tier and will take Chris Godwin ($6,200) along for the ride. The 49ers, however, are being ignored on the other side of the potential shootout, which makes their every-down players interesting targets.

• Winston aside, the crowd is likely to target quarterbacks in the $6K tier, where Cousins, Lamar Jackson ($6,000), Carson Wentz ($5,700), and Kyler Murray ($5,600) are attractively priced relative to their respective ceilings. Jacoby Brissett ($4,400), who took over for the retired Andrew Luck after Week 1 pricing was released, will also draw some attention at his backup salary.

• Top tier running backs like Saquon Barkley ($9,000) and Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) won’t be forgotten but look for the common roster construction to include at least two running backs in the $6K range. Cook, Nick Chubb ($6,400), Leonard Fournette ($6,100), Kerryon Johnson ($5,800), and Chris Carson ($5,700) all appear underpriced.

• Similar to running back, there is a soft spot for wide receivers in the $5K-$6K range, which could lead to a lot of balanced lineups this week. Sterling Shepard ($5,000), Tyler Boyd ($5,800), Tyler Lockett ($6,000), and Chris Godwin ($6,200) are each in line for at least a 20% share of their team’s targets. Luxury spending at wide receiver will be significant as well, but Jones ($8,000), Beckham ($8,100), and Tyreek Hill ($7,600) figure to cannibalize each other’s ownership. The sub-$5K wide receiver tier is where you can gain the most leverage on the field.

• At tight end, there is Travis Kelce ($7,100) and then everyone else. Most non-Kelce lineups are likely to feature a moderately priced upside play. Evan Engram ($4,800), and Hunter Henry ($3,900) are the usual suspects.

• Expect the crowd to pile on the Ravens DST ($3,800) in a road matchup against Miami’s tank-mode offense. Those without enough cap space to fit Baltimore will flock to one of the heavy home favorites. Philadelphia ($3,600), Dallas ($3,500), Seattle ($3,100), and the LA Chargers ($3,000) stand out. Spending less than $3K at defense will be the exception.

TAKING A STAND ON THE CHALK

These players are the odds-on favorites to score the most fantasy points relative to their respective salaries. The problem is most of your opponents are well aware. Fading popular plays entirely for the sake of differentiating your lineups is rarely the best decision when multi-entering tournaments. Instead, decide how much exposure you are comfortable with for each player in comparison to their projected ownership percentage. Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s highest-owned players:

IMPORTANT: All ownership percentages cited below are based on Steve Buzzard’s projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

QB: Jameis Winston (vs. SF, $6,600, 10% owned)
We can safely assume Tampa Bay will skew pass-heavy under Bruce Arians, whose last two Cardinals offenses finished third and fifth in pass attempts, respectively. Pro Football Focus ranked the 49ers defensive backfield dead last in the NFL in 2018 and the team did little to address the liability over the offseason. Winston’s top receiving weapons -- Mike Evans, Godwin, and O.J. Howard -- give him a clear leg up in this matchup. Doubt starts to creep in, however, when you consider this is Winston’s first regular-season game under Arians, who loves to push the ball vertically. Last year, Winston’s 32.6% adjusted completion rate on passes that traveled at least 20 yards through the air ranked 47th out of 50 qualifying quarterbacks. He also ranked sixth in the league in deep-pass interceptions despite appearing in only 11 games. The probability Winston appears in a first-place lineup isn’t too far removed from the likelihood he implodes, leading to an ugly game between two potentially bad teams. You’ll want exposure to Winston’s ceiling this week, but it’s unnecessary to come in higher than the field.

RB: Dalvin Cook (vs. ATL, $6,000 34% owned)
Cook is as close to game-script independent as they come in a home matchup against Atlanta. If Minnesota wins by more than a field goal, as the Vegas line implies, Cook should have ample opportunity to wear down the Falcons’ defensive front. The possibility also exists Ryan and co. can turn this game into a shootout indoors, raising Cook’s touchdown probability and volume as a pass-catcher. In fact, the game flow is probably not even a factor in Cook’s receiving outlook. Atlanta has allowed the most running back receptions in four consecutive seasons dating back to 2015. That’s what we call a trend. Cook, who is as healthy entering this game as he has been since his first NFL start, is mispriced by at least $1,100 (LeVeon Bell’s salary) and as much as $1,700 (David Johnson’s salary). The field has it right.

WR: Tyler Lockett (vs. CIN, $6,000, 18% owned)
Last year, Lockett became just the third wide receiver since 1992 to score 10 touchdowns on 70 or fewer targets in a season. While Lockett’s remarkable efficiency resulted in double-digit scoring on DraftKings in all but two games, he exceeded 20 fantasy points only once due to lack of volume. Entering Week 1 against Cincinnati, Lockett is now the only viable wide receiver on Seattle’s roster and he’s set to run more high-percentage slot routes to supplement the downfield bombs he and Russell Wilson seem to connect on at least once a game. The Bengals secondary doesn’t present an easy matchup, but if this game plays out anything like the mismatch it looks like on paper, it’s hard to imagine Lockett failing to impact the box score. Play Lockett in tournaments with impunity until further notice.

TE: Evan Engram (@ DAL, $4,800, 14% owned)
Engram’s target and yardage projections aren’t too far off those of George Kittle ($6,600) and Zach Ertz ($6,100). If the crowd wasn’t tempted to take the discount before, they will be after mid-week reports stated the obvious -- the Giants passing offense is "expected to revolve around" Engram and Saquon Barkley. In most weeks, the variance inherent to the position makes fading high-owned tight ends the right move in large fields. But Engram’s spot atop the tight end H-Value rankings on our Lineup Optimizer is justified. There might not be another player, at any position, who will command more targets per dollar and Engram’s all-world athleticism adds upside to every opportunity he receives. Don’t fade him.

DST: Baltimore Ravens (@MIA, $3,800, 15% owned)
Miami brought up the rear in Matt Bitonti’s most recent offensive line rankings and that was before they traded franchise left tackle, Laremy Tunsil, to the Texans. The Ravens’ defensive line, on the other hand, was a top-5 pass-rush unit in 2018 according to Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate metric. Hot knife, meet butter. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s seven interceptions while under pressure last year were just one short of the league lead and he appeared in only eight games. The Ravens have the highest floor and touchdown probability on the slate but they will be playing in unfamiliar 90-degree heat with high humidity -- a variable that baseline projections don’t typically account for. Don’t exceed the field’s exposure.

MORE CHALK:

CORE PLAYS

You won’t be sneaking these players past your opponents. But their projected ownership percentage is lower than the probability they will score more fantasy points than their salary implies. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their ownership projection.

QB: Carson Wentz (vs. WAS, $5,700, 8% owned)

When Wentz played Washington in Week 13 last year:

• The Eagles were seven-point home favorites
• He was already dealing with a back injury that would end his season just a week later
• His price on DraftKings was $6,500.

Wentz playing Washington in Week 1 this year:

• The Eagles are 10-point home favorites
• He is fully-healthy
• His offensive weapons are significantly improved
• His price is $5,800 on DraftKings?

It’s unclear what we owe the discount to (aside from generally soft pricing), but it makes Wentz the best projected point-per-dollar play on the slate at any position. When healthy last season, Wentz reeled off seven consecutive games with at least 22 DraftKings points, and that was without a field-stretcher of DeSean Jackson’s caliber adding big-play upside to his pass attempts. A potentially run-heavy game-script in the second half is a mild concern, but if Philadelphia begins salting away an easy win in the third quarter, it’s likely Wentz will have racked up 250+ yards and multiple touchdowns already.

RB: Leonard Fournette (vs. KC, $6,100, 14% owned)
For most of August, it appeared Fournette would make an excellent contrarian play in Week 1. But as the preseason progressed, it became impossible to ignore the stories about Fournette being more engaged, dropping weight, and getting more involved as a pass-catcher under new pass-first offensive coordinator, John DeFilippo. An impressive preseason, in which Fournette ran hard and was indeed a fixture in the Jaguars passing game, has eliminated any possibility he’ll fly below the crowd’s radar against the Chiefs. Kansas City allowed 27.2% more fantasy points to opposing running backs than league average last season and lost a pair of Pro Bowl-caliber outside linebackers in the off-season. Fournette is at home, the matchup is in his favor, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he handled ~90% of Jacksonville’s backfield touches, including on passing-downs and at the goal-line. Double the field on your exposure.

WR: Dede Westbrook (vs. KC, $4,800, 10% owned)
Building lineups around a pair of Jaguars won’t give you the warm and fuzzies, but as Buzzard said on this week’s Ownership Report, if you feel good about your GPP lineup when you click submit, you can probably expect it to min-cash. Like his teammate Fournette, Westbook’s stock rose in the preseason, which culminated in a 7-4-29-1 receiving line in Week 3 against the Dolphins. If Nick Foles’ past tendencies are any indication, Westbrook might be the cheapest source of double-digit targets on the slate. Foles has targeted his slot receiver at the sixth-highest rate over the last two seasons and he’ll likely be dropping back plenty in an effort to keep pace with the Chiefs offense.

TE: Zach Ertz (vs. WAS, $6,100, 9% owned)
With the majority of the crowd paying up to Kelce or down to Engram and Hunter Henry, we’re able to get Ertz at a bargain ownership rate. Ertz may not lead all tight ends in targets this season, but many analysts are talking as if he’ll be marginalized because Philadelphia improved their wide receiver corps. Wentz isn’t going to forget about Ertz, and even if his reception total isn’t quite as high as usual, there might not be a tight end more likely to score multiple touchdowns this week. The Eagles are huge home favorites, their Vegas team total implies the possibility of four offensive touchdowns, and Ertz’s 27 red-zone targets from a year ago were double those of the next closest Philadelphia pass-catcher (Alshon Jeffery).

DST: Los Angeles Chargers (vs. IND, $3,000, 11% owned)
Jacoby Brissett was sacked a league-leading 52 times as a starter in 2017. He’ll be playing behind a much better offensive line in his second go-round as the Colts starting quarterback, but our Adam Harstad has provided compelling evidence sack rate is more closely correlated to the player, versus their situation. If Brissett hasn’t broken his habit of holding onto the ball too long, the Chargers stud defensive ends -- Melvin Ingram III and Joey Bosa -- will make him pay. Sacks and off-target throws (Brissett is a 59% career passer) are precursors to turnovers, giving LA’s defense a similar ceiling to the Ravens’ at an $800 discount.

MORE CORE PLAYS

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

Hitting on one-or-more of these players will gain you massive leverage on the field. Due to their low ownership, the better they perform, the faster your roster separates in the standings. Keep in mind, using a 5%-owned player in only 2-out-of-10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament. Be careful not to over-invest in these players, but you’ll need at least two from this ownership tier in your lineup for a shot at first place in most large-field GPPs.

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo (@TB, $5,800, 4% owned)
Winston and Godwin are the chalk while Garoppolo, and the rest of the 49ers offensive pieces (outside of George Kittle), are coming in at 5% owned or less? Something doesn’t add up. Tampa Bay allowed nearly 25 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season. The Buccaneers no longer have defensive tackle Gerald McCoy or linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul (cervical fracture) to get pressure on Garoppolo and they remain stuck with the same group of underperforming young cornerbacks as last year. Garoppolo has averaged 282.5 passing yards per game in eight starts since joining San Francisco. His low touchdown rate appears fluky given the high yardage totals and Tampa Bay allowed over two touchdowns per game through the air in 2018. If this game goes back and forth, as expected, stacking the 49ers passing game is likely to help you shoot up the leaderboards.

RB: Todd Gurley (@CAR, $7,900, 6% owned)
Sean McVay may have ruined this one Thursday when he announced Gurley wouldn’t be on a snap count against the Panthers. But even if his ownership crests around 8%, it’s probably still lower than the chance he’ll appear in a first-place lineup. Coming in over the field on Gurley this week is a simple case of being greedy while everyone else is scared:

• Gurley’s arthritic knee won’t feel any better all season than it does in Week 1.
• Carolina isn’t an easy matchup, especially for running backs, but the Rams are implied to score 27 points in a road win.
• Gurley led all running backs in DraftKings points per game last year.
• He’s priced well relative to his upside. Gurley’s lowest price in 2018 was $8,600 and got as high as $10,000.

If he were expensive and high-owned it would be one thing, but the public perception has swung too far against Gurley. We’re unlikely to get a better opportunity to play him in tournaments all year.

WR: John Brown (@NYJ, $4,300, 4% owned)
By all accounts, Brown is coming off a tremendous training camp, and he’ll start for Buffalo on the perimeter. He came out of the gates hot last year with at least 13.5 fantasy points (and as many as 29) in five out of his first seven games with the Ravens but saw his downfield opportunities plummet when Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback. Josh Allen may never be a a viable NFL starter, but he can extend plays and is willing to chuck it deep, which dovetails nicely with Brown’s skillset. The Jets might have the worst group of starting cornerbacks in the league, especially with Trumaine Johnson just getting over a hamstring injury. Allen only needs to be on target once when Brown beats his man deep for him to pay off a $4,300 salary.

TE: Delanie Walker (@CLE, $3,500, 3% owned)
Walker is old, coming off a serious injury, and there is a reason the Titans may collectively end up the most lightly-owned offense on the slate. He’s certainly not a flashy tournament play but he’s a familiar target and safety valve for Marcus Mariota and can probably be relied on for six-to-eight targets. Any time we can pick on Cleveland’s blind spot against tight ends, it’s probably the right idea. The Browns have now finished inside the bottom-5 teams in PPR fantasy points allowed to tight ends in three straight seasons.

DST: Detroit Lions (@ARI, $2,900, 2% owned)
The Lions defense isn’t extremely talented and they’re on the road in a game with a high over/under. Their defensive line is solid, however, which projects as a big problem for the Cardinals, whose offensive line can’t stop anyone. Placing a chip on the low-owned Detroit defense is a bet against a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start and the Lions being able to control the pace of play with Kerryon Johnson and the running game. A Johnson/Lions stack is a great way to gain leverage if you plan on fading Kyler Murray.

MORE CONTRARIAN PLAYS

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