Photo: Imagn Images

Disclaimer:

Phil Alexander is out this week due to personal reasons. This article will be an abridged version. He will be back next week for the full article.

IMPORTANT: All ownership percentages cited below are based on Steve Buzzard’s projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

TAKING A STAND ON THE CHALK

These players are the odds-on favorites to score the most fantasy points relative to their respective salaries. The problem is most of your opponents are well aware. Fading popular plays entirely for the sake of differentiating your lineups is rarely the best decision when multi-entering tournaments. Instead, decide how much exposure you are comfortable with for each player in comparison to their projected ownership percentage. Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s highest-owned players:

QB: Russell Wilson (vs. TB, $8,600, 21% owned)

Russell Wilson is going to be extremely popular this week as Seattle is projected to be the highest scoring team on the slate. Wilson has tremendous upside each and every time he touches the field, but his passing volume numbers leave a lot to be desired. On the season, Wilson has thrown the ball 31.75 times per game, which is the sixth-fewest in the NFL this season. In contests that the Seahawks have won, Wilson has thrown the ball just 26 times per contest. This is a team that wants to be a run-first offense with Chris Carson leading the way. At 21% owned for the highest priced quarterback on the board, this is a clear fade this week.

RB: Jaylen Samuels (@IND, $4,000, 52% owned)

With James Conner and Benny Snell out this week, Jaylen Samuels will be the sole running back in the Steelers backfield. Samuels is shaping up to be one of the highest owned players of the season. What makes Samuels so intriguing is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield as he in college he was primarily a tight end who would also come in and get a few carries per game out of the backfield. It is very rare that someone at 52% would be recommended to play, but this is where we are at this week in which there are not a lot of great options this week at the wide receiver position. If you want to fade Samuels, fade him at your own risk, as in his three games as a starter he has 15 DraftKings points or more in each of those games. He is a fantastic play this week at just $4,000

WR: Tyler Lockett (vs. TB, $7,500, 18% owned)

We discussed Seattle’s run heavy offense in the Russell Wilson section, but the stack of Wilson and Lockett will likely be the most popular stack on the slate. Lockett is a player who is the fourth most expensive wide receiver on the slate which is very high this week for the production that Lockett has had this season. Lockett has been extremely consistent on the season, but the problem is he has not shown the extreme upside that he is going to need at $7,500 salary. Lockett has topped 20 points just once this season and has been in favorable matchups including last week against Atlanta who has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. If Lockett was priced in the mid-high $6k range or if he was lower owned than he would be in play, but this is a clear fade this week.

TE: Darren Waller (@HOU, $6,300, 20% owned)

Darren Waller’s price increases by $400 after a disappointing game last week against the Texans in which he was only able to catch two of his eight targets, but was able to find the end-zone for a touchdown. Waller this week gets a favorable matchup against Detroit who have struggled to defend the tight end position as they have allowed 10 points or more to the tight end position in every game since Week 3. With the Lions trading away Qandree Diggs, they become even more thin at the linebacker/safety positions than they previously were. Waller is a strong play this week especially in cash games, but in a GPP, he does only have three touchdowns on the season and just two targets inside the 10-yard line as the team goes with a run-heavy approach inside the red zone. He is a player that you should not go overweight on when it comes to ownership and if you want to be lower than the field this is certainly a spot that you could do so based on how touchdown dependent the tight end position is.

DST: Buffalo Bills (vs. NYG, $3,800, 17% owned)

The Bills get the luxury of facing the rookie who likely still is not ready to play in Dwayne Haskins. Haskins has looked lost in the two games he has come in during the middle of the contest as he has thrown four interceptions on just 22 attempts. The issue for Buffalo is that they have a reputation that they are an elite passing defense based on what they did last season allowing just 179 yards passing per game. However, this season they do not appear as dominant as they are allowing 194 yards per game, and from a competition standpoint have faced poor competition in Jets, Giants, Bengals, Patriots, Titans, Dolphins, Eagles (New England being the outlier here). Even more concerning is that for how many bad quarterbacks the Bills have faced, they only have six interceptions on the season and just 16 sacks which is 9^th worst in the NFL. This seems like a clear fade this week as while they may not allow many points, the sack upside and game script suggests that this could be a game in which Buffalo just dominates the clock.

Evaluating MORE CHALK:

MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

You won’t be sneaking these players past your opponents. But their projected ownership percentage is lower than the probability they will score more fantasy points than their salary implies. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their ownership projection.

Great MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

Hitting on one-or-more of these players will gain you massive leverage on the field. Due to their low ownership, the better they perform, the faster your roster separates in the standings. Keep in mind, using a 5%-owned player in only 2-out-of-10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament. Be careful not to over-invest in these players, but you’ll need at least two from this ownership tier in your lineup for a shot at first place in most large-field GPPs.

Great CONTRARIAN PLAYS