DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 8

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KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

• We’ve reached the point in the season where how well we process injury information is almost as important as game theory, projections, or roster construction. The big injuries hanging over this week’s slate belong to Alvin Kamara and David Johnson. Much of what you’re about to read regarding common roster construction will shift if Latavius Murray ($5,800) and Chase Edmonds ($6,200) resume the respective workhorse roles they inherited in Week 7.

• This week’s most sought after game environments are Seattle at Atlanta and Oakland at Houston, both of which opened with 51-point totals. The crowd just watched Aaron Rodgers put up a vintage performance against Oakland’s pass defense, which will inflate Deshaun Watson’s ownership despite his overall QB2 salary ($7,100). DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100) got back on track last week but may not be Watson’s most common stacking partner, as the inexpensive Kenny Stills ($4,700) will replace Will Fuller in the starting lineup. The obvious run-back option in game-stacks is Darren Waller ($5,900), fresh off his second 30+ point output on DraftKings this season. If you want to get sneaky with your exposure to the Texans, consider taking a strong position on Carlos Hyde ($4,700) with Houston favored by nearly a touchdown at home. Keke Coutee ($4,100) is a viable pivot off Stills at about half the projected ownership.

• Like Watson, Russell Wilson ($7,200) is also priced way up to account for his matchup. The Falcons are allowing 32 points per game this season, which paves the way to heavy ownership for Wilson, Chris Carson ($7,000), and Tyler Lockett ($7,000). How the crowd reacts to the Atlanta side will depend upon Matt Ryan’s ($6,000) status. Assuming Ryan can play through an ankle sprain, Julio Jones ($7,700), Calvin Ridley ($5,600), and Austin Hooper ($5,500) should reach moderate ownership, especially with the Mohamed Sanu trade opening up an additional six targets per game.

• Watson and Wilson will be joined by Jared Goff ($6,800) in the top ownership tier. Goff, who faces the dismal Cincinnati defense in London, was surprisingly the highest-owned quarterback in last week’s Milly Maker. The high-priced trio could account for about 40% of the total ownership at the position.

• As usual, expect heavy running back spending to be a common theme. Even if Murray and/or Edmonds open things up a bit, bell-cows like Leonard Fournette ($7,800), Chris Carson ($7,000), and Saquon Barkley ($8,900) will be in high demand. If the ownership of recent running backs playing against the Bengals is any indication, Todd Gurley ($7,400) will have some fans as well. Christian McCaffrey ($9,200) probably won’t dip below ~15% ownership but should provide some leverage on the other top-tier backs due to his price tag and perceived poor matchup in San Francisco. The entirety of the running back field between $5K and $6.9K should get largely glossed over (save for potentially Murray and Edmonds). If you’re aiming for a contrarian build, there are few better places to start.

• While some will prioritize Hopkins or Michael Thomas ($8,000), splurging at quarterback and running back means most entrants will be looking for at least two wide receiver bargains. Stills (5-4-105-0) played the Fuller role well last week and gets to face the Raiders flammable secondary. Corey Davis ($4,400) was revived by competent quarterback play last week and gets another winnable matchup against Tampa Bay. At the low end, DaeSean Hamilton ($3,300) has renewed PPR appeal following the early-week trade of Emmanuel Sanders. WR1 options in stock roster builds will top out in the $6K range, where Allen Robinson ($6,000) and John Brown ($5,900) stand out as the usual suspects.

• Thrifty spending at wide receiver leaves room for our opponents to play the tight end chalk. Waller, Hooper, and Hunter Henry ($4,900), whose price couldn’t be rising more slowly, will be the most popular options. Paying way up to George Kittle ($6,500) in a nice spot as a heavy home favorite or down to anyone below Gerald Everett ($4,300) will force a unique build.

• DraftKings did a nice job pricing up the most attractive DST matchups this week. The Patriots ($4,300), Rams ($3,800), and Saints ($3,200) will be popular but most entrants will have trouble coming up with enough funds to squeeze them in. Look for the most ownership to concentrate between $2,400 to $3,200, where Carolina ($2,400), Detroit, ($2,800), Indianapolis ($2,900), and Jacksonville ($2,900) are priced well in plus matchups.

TAKING A STAND ON THE CHALK

These players are the odds-on favorites to score the most fantasy points relative to their respective salaries. The problem is most of your opponents are well aware. Fading popular plays entirely for the sake of differentiating your lineups is rarely the best decision when multi-entering tournaments. Instead, decide how much exposure you are comfortable with for each player in comparison to their projected ownership percentage. Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s highest-owned players:

QB: Deshaun Watson (vs. OAK, $7,100, 15% owned)

The crowd doesn’t need an excuse to get on Watson, who has scored at least 30 DraftKings points (and as many as 45) in four out of seven games this season. But they’ll have one this week since visiting Oakland has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. When faced with an above-average quarterback, the Raiders pass-defense has wilted. Both Aaron Rodgers (429-5-0) and Patrick Mahomes II (443-4-0) reached their respective ceilings against Oakland and Watson is set up to do the same. In the two games he failed to put up respectable fantasy numbers this season, Watson was rattled by fierce pass-rushes (Carolina and Jacksonville). The Raiders have gotten zero heat on opposing quarterbacks, checking in at 27th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate metric. Between the excellent matchup and high probability he gets to ~40 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground, there isn’t an obvious reason to fade Watson, whose ownership will be high but not prohibitive. Make him one of the core quarterbacks in your player pool.

RB: Chris Carson (@ATL, $7,000, 23% owned)

Atlanta’s defense hasn’t been quite the fantasy bonanza for enemy running backs many people assume. They rank 13th in normalized fantasy points allowed to opposing rushers (though we have to wonder how much of that is owed to their deficiencies defending the pass). Even if the on-paper matchup isn’t everything it’s cracked up to be, it shouldn’t matter since Seattle calls a run on 47% of their plays -- the fourth-highest rate in the league. The overwhelming majority of those rushes are going to Carson. Over the last four weeks, he has handled 86% of the Seahawks’ running back touches, good for an average of 26.5 total touches per game. Priced a full $800 below Leonard Fournette, there is no question Carson will create a pile-up. His early-week ownership projection is a fine plan for exposure but consider a fade if it’s hovering near 30% by the weekend update. While Carson is capable of playing his way into a first-place lineup, he doesn’t have quite the same slate-busting ceiling as Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey, who should be lower-owned.

WR: DeAndre Hopkins (vs. OAK, $8,100, 21% owned)

Hopkins’ return to prominence was easy to see coming in Week 7, but a large part of his appeal was tied to reduced ownership (12.5% in the Milly Maker). He’ll be more popular this week due to his association with Watson and the Texans’ aforementioned matchup against Oakland’s pass defense, which took another hit when the team traded cornerback Gareon Conley earlier this week. While he’ll have help, rookie corner Trayvon Mullen is making his first NFL start and will draw Hopkins on at least a few plays. When Mullen was last called upon in relief of Conley, Emmanuel Sanders stung him for three catches, 27 yards, and a touchdown on four targets. The matchup is clearly in Hopkins’ favor and his ownership is reasonable given his talent level and target share. He’ll be a better play if David Johnson and Alvin Kamara are active since entrants won’t have an easy time fitting his salary under the cap next to high-priced quarterbacks and running backs.

TE: Darren Waller (@HOU, $5,900, 20% owned)

There are reasons to hope Waller’s ownership projection drops by the weekend. He is more expensive than usual, game-log watchers will note Houston previously held both Austin Hooper (9-6-56-0) and Travis Kelce in check (6-4-58-0), and Tyrell Williams appears set to return. But while Waller is priced $700 above his previous season-high salary, his cost probably hasn’t risen high enough. His 8.3 targets per game trail only Zach Ertz (8.4) for the league-lead among tight ends and he’s the season-to-date TE2 on DraftKings despite already having his bye week. Defense vs. position is another poor argument in favor of a Waller fade. Tight end production is influenced by the game environment more than any other factor. Case in point, both of Waller’s 30-point performances have come in games Oakland lost by 18 points or more. Williams’ return shouldn’t have an effect either. Waller’s target volume actually increases to 9.3 per game in the four games Williams has played this year. Every argument against Waller has holes in it except his ownership projection, which is reason enough to stay below the field’s exposure. Tight end is a high variance position and following the herd is rarely the right play in tournaments.

DST: Detroit Lions (vs. NYG, $2,800, 7% owned)

A bunch of home defenses with attractive matchups are priced up at $3,500 or above, except the Lions, who fit like a Tetris piece into this week’s common roster construction. Daniel Jones has been sacked a whopping 18 times across five starts. The constant defensive pressure has resulted in an ugly 4:7 touchdown to interception ratio for Jones over the last four games. Detroit’s top-12 defensive line gives their DST a high floor against the sack-prone rookie, as well as a high ceiling in a game they’re implied to win by more than a touchdown. The Lions’ ownership shouldn’t be prohibitive enough to warrant a fade.

MORE CHALK:

MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

You won’t be sneaking these players past your opponents. But their projected ownership percentage is lower than the probability they will score more fantasy points than their salary implies. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their ownership projection.

QB: Kyler Murray (@NO, $6,200, 2% owned)

Murray will fly somewhat below the radar this week after he busted as quasi-chalk in an easy matchup against the Giants in Week 7. What happened last week, however, was probably a bottom one-percent outcome. How often can we expect Chase Edmonds to bust three 20+ yard touchdown runs and rob Murray of his scoring opportunities? Edmonds’ breakout game, combined with the Cardinals piling up eight sacks and three turnovers, resulted in Murray throwing the ball a career-low 21 times. He’ll have to make plays this week to keep the Cardinals competitive against New Orleans, who may not present as tough a matchup as it seems. The Saints defense has stiffened up considerably in recent weeks, but since Week 4, they faced Dak Prescott (just in time for the Dallas offense to begin stalling), Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew, and Mitchell Trubisky. Murray is closer stylistically to Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson, each of whom lit up the Saints through the air and on the ground early in the season. With double-digit rush attempts in each of his last three games and a high-scoring game environment in the Superdome, Murray is a bargain-priced, dual-threat pivot off the chalky Wilson and Watson.

RB: Marlon Mack (vs. DEN, $6,100, 7% owned)

There is nothing particularly enticing about Mack’s matchup against Denver’s defensive front. Since getting gashed by Leonard Fournette for 245 total yards in Week 4, the Broncos have allowed 49% fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than league average. Going overweight on Mack is placing a chip on Indianapolis breezing to a blowout win over a Denver team that has combined for 22 points over their last two games and just traded away one of their best offensive weapons (Emmanuel Sanders). As long as Indianapolis remains in control of the game, we can count on Mack getting fed. He’s quietly one of four running backs in the league averaging at least 19.8 rush attempts per game and his involvement as a pass-catcher is on the rise (three targets in each of the last two games). Mack becomes even more intriguing in GPPs if Edmonds and Murray end up hogging the spotlight in the $6K range at running back.

WR: DK Metcalf (@ATL, $5,000, 9% owned)

Metcalf posted a ho-hum 8.3 DraftKings points as a highly-touted play against Baltimore in Week 7. Russell Wilson’s popularity and a matchup against Atlanta will keep Metcalf top of mind for some, but he should still go off at about half of Tyler Lockett’s ownership. Lost in Metcalf’s mediocre box score in the Ravens game were a career-high nine targets and team-leading 108 air yards. It’s only a matter of time before he produces a high-end WR1 stat line and the Falcons secondary could be the catalyst. Metcalf is too big, too physical, and most importantly too fast for any defensive back Atlanta can use to cover him. Wide receivers who can turn on the jets, including Nelson Agholor (11-8-107-1), T.Y. Hilton (10-8-65-1), A.J. Brown (3-3-94-2), and Will Fuller (16-14-217-3) have annihilated the Falcons this season. Look for Metcalf to slip behind his man for at least one long score this week.

TE: Zach Ertz (@BUF, $5,100, 10% owned)

Buffalo’s pass defense is just as menacing to opposing tight ends as it is for wide receivers, Dallas Goedert has begun receiving significant snaps, and the game environment in Buffalo doesn’t scream shootout (o/u 43.5). It’s clearly not a great spot on paper for Ertz, but his season-low salary is too good to pass up for the league’s tight end target leader. A high-scoring game between the Eagles and Bills shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand. Philadelphia’s defense, particularly their secondary, has been flat-out awful. If Josh Allen can connect on a few deep shots early, Carson Wentz will be forced to air it out in an attempt to keep pace, putting Ertz in play for double-digit targets at his middling salary. A big game from Ertz combined with a dud from Hunter Henry, who should be more popular at about the same price, would gain leverage on the field.

DST: Carolina Panthers (@SF, $2,400, 4% owned)

Expect Carolina’s defense to border on chalky by the time the weekend rolls around. Some entrants will avoid the Panthers due to a road matchup against undefeated San Francisco, but their DST unit is clearly mispriced. They may have faced some plus matchups recently, but prior to last week’s bye, Carolina accumulated 22 sacks, eight interceptions, and six fumble recoveries over their previous four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is typically good for a handful of questionable decisions each week, which gives the Panthers an opening to reach double-digit fantasy points for the fifth consecutive game.

MORE MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

Hitting on one-or-more of these players will gain you massive leverage on the field. Due to their low ownership, the better they perform, the faster your roster separates in the standings. Keep in mind, using a 5%-owned player in only 2-out-of-10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament. Be careful not to over-invest in these players, but you’ll need at least two from this ownership tier in your lineup for a shot at first place in most large-field GPPs.

QB: Mitchell Trubisky (vs. LAR, $4,900, 2% owned)

Similar to the Ryan Tannehill play recommended in this space last week, you’ll need to put a clothespin on your nose before clicking Trubisky’s name. But the same reasons Tannehill was a good play against the Chargers in Week 7 all apply to Trubisky this week:

• LA’s defense is one of the most banged-up units in the league. They’ve allowed solid games to every quarterback they’ve faced this year besides Josh Rosen, Joe Flacco, and Devlin Hodges.

• Trubisky is downright terrible. But he has also shown tournament-winning upside with 30+ DraftKings points in four games last season.

• He has weapons at his disposal. Allen Robinson looks like his pre-ACL surgery self, Anthony Miller is becoming more involved, Tarik Cohen is a threat to score on any given touch, and David Montgomery is exactly the type of running back who can wear down the Chargers defensive front.

• While he hasn’t shown it this year, Trubisky has rushing upside as evidenced by his six games with at least 30 yards on the ground in 2018.

• His salary forces a unique lineup construction on a slate where most will spend up at quarterback.
  

Matt Nagy has his back against the wall after calling an awful game last week against New Orleans. The chance he can recapture some of the creativity that worked for Trubisky and the Bears last year in a do-or-die game is greater than 2%.

RB: Derrick Henry (vs. TB, $6,000, 12% owned)

Henry’s early-week ownership projection looks on the heavy side considering how much the crowd usually weighs defensive matchups. While Tampa Bay has allowed over 30 actual points per game this season, they’ve given up the third-fewest PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs -- a feat made more impressive by the opponents they’ve faced. Christian McCaffrey (twice), Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley, and Saquon Barkley have each shown us their respective floors against the Buccaneers this season. There are four reasons this still sets up as a nice spot for Henry:

• His snap-share (75%) and touch-share (96%) were both on the rise in Tannehill’s first start

• Tennessee is a home favorite against a mistake-prone quarterback. Henry seemingly always finds the end zone at home and Jameis Winston’s questionable decision-making can lead to short fields for the Titans.

• Tennessee's passing game is coming off a solid performance, and Tannehill, Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, and Jonnu Smith are still cheap. Henry is a leverage play should Tannehill predictably come crashing down to earth.

• Depending on how the injury news breaks, Henry could be shaded by Edmonds and Murray in the same price range.
  

WR: Golden Tate (@DET, $5,800, 3% owned)

Since returning from suspension, Tate has been on the receiving end of 27% of Daniel Jones’ aimed throws. With Sterling Shepard expected to miss at least another week due to a concussion, we can safely expect Tate’s elite market share to continue. Revenge game narratives are often over-hyped in DFS, but Detroit shipped Tate out last season rather than sign him to an extension. Regardless of what might be going on between Tate's ears, with New York visiting Detroit as seven-point underdogs, there should be plenty of high-percentage targets headed his way and he’ll go overlooked in favor of guys like John Brown, Allen Robinson, and Courtland Sutton in the same price range.

TE: Jacob Hollister (@ATL, $2,900, 1% owned)

Hollister didn’t quite inherit Will Dissly’s vacated role in last week’s loss to Baltimore, but he was on the field for 51% of Seattle’s offensive snaps and quietly notched six targets on his way to an unimpressive 3-20-0 receiving line. If he’s used the same way against Atlanta, we should expect his fortunes to change. Hollister has exceptional speed and burst for a 6’3’’, 240-pound pass-catcher. He’s a potential mismatch for the Falcons’ linebackers and safeties, who have gotten bullied by Darren Fells, Maxx Williams, and Gerald Everett in the red zone over their last three games.

DST: Chicago Bears (vs. LAC, $3,600, 3% owned)

If entrants are going to spend this much on a DST, they’re likely to choose the Patriots, Rams, 49ers, and Saints ahead of the Bears, who have been disappointing recently. The team certainly misses defensive tackle Akiem Hicks up front but it’s doubtful LA’s offensive line can get enough push to exploit Chicago’s newfound liability stopping the run. The Bears defensive line is a mismatch for LA in the trenches, where the struggling Philip Rivers has been sacked 10 times over the last three games. Pay up to be contrarian.

MORE CONTRARIAN PLAYS

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