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KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

• This spotlight is on Houston at Kansas City, which opened with a 55-point over/under. The brand names from this matchup -- Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill (if he plays), Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Fuller -- are sure to attract the crowd. Should Hill and/or Sammy Watkins scratch, Kansas City’s secondary receivers, particularly Byron Pringle ($3,500 fresh off a nationally televised breakout game), will also be popular. Leverage plays from this game will be scarce, but Kansas City’s running game and defense, as well as Houston’s tight ends, are the best places to start looking.

• The Texans and Chiefs aren’t the only teams our opponents have circled. Baltimore’s implied total is sitting at about 30 points in a home matchup against the hapless Bengals defense. Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and Mark Andrews, in particular, will get an ownership bump as a result. Atlanta at Arizona (o/u 51) could rival Houston at Kansas City for total ownership in an up-tempo matchup between two awful defenses. Add Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Austin Hooper, Calvin Ridley, Kyler Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, and David Johnson (assuming he plays) to the list of commonly-owned players.

• Saints at Jaguars has a middling 44.5-point over/under but DraftKings has been painfully slow to raise the price of Jacksonville players. Leonard Fournette and D.J. Chark are in an unusual spot as crowd favorites in a potentially low-scoring game.

• The popularity of Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, Falcons, Cardinals, and Jaguars may allow 49ers at Rams (and its 50.5-point over/under) to fly below the radar. This is a game to stack if you want your builds to stand out.

• Ryan ($6,400), Murray ($6,500), Russell Wilson ($6,600), Jackson ($6,900), and even Mahomes ($7,500) are clustered together so closely in price, it’s easy to nail down how most of our opponents will spend at quarterback. Gardner Minshew ($5,000) is the obvious pay-down option to open up more spending at other positions.

• With Christian McCaffrey off the main slate, it is less obvious than usual how the masses will attack running back. At the top salary tier, Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) hasn’t flashed much of a ceiling this season, Dalvin Cook ($8,400) faces an Eagles defense that has yet to allow 50 rushing yards in a game to a running back, and Alvin Kamara ($8,000) has been ho-hum the last two weeks with Teddy Bridgewater under center. It’s not to say the best running backs will go lightly-owned this week, but more ownership should settle between $6K and $7.6K where Chris Carson ($6,000), Derrick Henry, LeVeon Bell ($6,400), Ingram ($6,600), Fournette ($6,700), Nick Chubb ($7,300), and Johnson ($7,600) give entrants plenty of options to choose from. Look for the most common construction to include at least two from this group.

• Moderate spending at quarterback and both running back spots allows for splurging on a high-end wide receiver. DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400) and Julio Jones ($8,000) should lead the way at the top as the most obvious stacking partners for Watson and Ryan, respectively. While guys like Fuller ($6,000), Fitzgerald ($6,100), and Tyler Boyd ($6,300) should be high-owned, Chark ($5,500) and Courtland Sutton ($5,000) are mispriced relative to their season-to-date production. The two sophomore standouts should appear frequently in lineups next to a high-priced WR1. There isn’t much to grab the crowd’s attention in the sub-$5K range unless Pringle is guaranteed snaps.

• Travis Kelce ($7,000) will command his usual ownership, but he’s priced out of consideration for stock roster builds. Andrews ($4,800), Will Dissly, Hooper ($5,000), and George Kittle ($5,200) can be used interchangeably. Targeting a tight end outside of the $5K range is an easy way to force a unique build.

• There is an interesting twist at DST this week, as DraftKings has dropped the salary floor all the way down to $1,500 for the Jets. Regardless of what you think of New York’s prospects at home against Dallas, a measly six fantasy points from their defense equate to a 4x salary multiple. With the number of teams in great spots this week, we can expect plenty of entrants to take the bait. Those who don’t are likely to pick on the Dolphins by rostering Washington’s defense ($3,200).

TAKING A STAND ON THE CHALK

These players are the odds-on favorites to score the most fantasy points relative to their respective salaries. The problem is most of your opponents are well aware. Fading popular plays entirely for the sake of differentiating your lineups is rarely the best decision when multi-entering tournaments. Instead, decide how much exposure you are comfortable with for each player in comparison to their projected ownership percentage. Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s highest-owned players:

QB: Matt Ryan (@ARI, $6,400, 13% owned)
Ryan has scored 23 DraftKings points in all games but one this season, topping out at 35 last week in a losing effort at Houston. He’s become the type of high-floor/high-ceiling quarterback the crowd (correctly) gravitates towards in GPPs and remains less expensive than the rest of the top-tier options. A matchup against the Cardinals should finally push Ryan’s ownership over the top. Arizona has allowed 26.3% more fantasy points than league average to enemy quarterbacks and multiple passing touchdowns in four out of five games. With both teams playing at a top-5 situation neutral pace, Ryan should also benefit from a few added dropbacks. The only reason to hesitate is that we haven’t seen what Ryan looks like when the Falcons win easily this season. The Cardinals lost convincingly to Baltimore, Carolina, and Seattle thus far and have rarely held up their end of the bargain in projected a shootout. If Atlanta rolls to an easy win, Devonta Freeman and/or Ito Smith could deliver big games at Ryan’s expense. Sprinkle in some Atlanta stacks, but with so many quarterbacks in great spots this week, there aren’t enough reasons to come in over the field on Ryan.

RB: Leonard Fournette (vs. NO, $6,700, 24% owned)
Like Ryan, Fournette offers enough upside for GPPs and a high floor that makes the crowd feel safe when they click his name. Christian McCaffrey is the only running back in the league who isn’t jealous of Fournette’s workload. Through six games, Fournette is up to 90% of the Jaguars' backfield snaps, rush attempts, targets, and touches. He’s also been explosive, notching one run of at least 48 yards in three straight games. Unfortunately, it seems like Fournette’s ownership has finally caught up to his production (even if his season-high salary still hasn’t). The Saints rush defense put the clamps on Chris Carson (15-53-0) and Ezekiel Elliott (18-35-1) in recent weeks and the game environment (o/u 44.5 points) doesn’t scream touchdown potential. Fournette finishing around 15 points is a more likely outcome than seeing him in first-place lineups at elevated ownership. He’s been a great play all season, but it’s time to fade him relative to the field.

WR: D.J. Chark (vs. NO, $5,500, 14% owned)
96% of the field slept on Chark in last week’s Milly Maker, an occurrence we’re unlikely to see again for the foreseeable future. After lighting up a previously stingy Carolina secondary for 39.4 DraftKings points (11-8-164-2), Chark takes on a New Orleans defensive backfield that has been thrashed by DeAndre Hopkins (13-8-111-2), Cooper Kupp (9-5-120-0), Tyler Lockett (14-11-154), and Chris Godwin (9-7-125-2). Those last three names share an important commonality, however. They all run routes primarily from the slot, where Chark has only lined up on 19% of his routes this season. It’s not to say Chark can’t beat any Saints cornerback, including Marshon Lattimore, on the perimeter if he continues making difficult plays look as easy as he has all season. But where to come in on Chark in GPPs depends almost entirely on Buzzard’s final ownership projection update on Sunday morning. If he gets as high as 18-20%, Dede Westbrook becomes the better play on Jacksonville (see below).

TE: Austin Hooper (@ ARI, $5,000, 24% owned)
If a matchup against Arizona’s defense raised Tyler Eifert -- a part-time player -- to 17% owned in last week’s Milly Maker, it’s a mortal lock that Hooper, one of the most productive tight ends in the league, will be chalky at his still-reasonable TE4 salary. As we highlighted in this space last week, opposing defenses are selling out to stop Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. It’s opened things up for Hooper underneath, and poor offensive line play has forced Matt Ryan to look him down 8.4 times per game. It’s impossible to argue he’s a bad point-per-dollar play this week, but if it’s right to wonder if Ryan will be forced to keep the pedal to the floor against the Cardinals defense, there is a case to be made for fading Hooper as well. Don't exceed the field's exposure.

DST: New York Jets (vs. DAL, $1,500, 11% owned)
The Jets $1,500 price tag creates an interesting conundrum. Do we knowingly roster a terrible defense in hopes they can do just enough to pay off their next-to-nothing salary? In cash games, it’s probably not worth thinking about playing a defense other than the Jets this week. But if they’re going to be one of the top-owned units in GPPs, we have to ask ourselves if they have a realistic path to producing a salary multiple well above the 4-5x threshold we’re typically targeting. On one hand, Dallas’ offense has struggled when their opponents were not the Giants, Dolphins, or Redskins. The Jets defense, despite being terrible in the secondary, at least has some play-makers. They’ve recorded at least one sack and a forced turnover in each of their games this season, to go along with three total touchdowns. It’s not out of the realm of possibility New York gets to double-digit DraftKings points in this spot, but the probability is lower than their projected ownership. Even if they get to six or seven points, you’ll have to choose perfectly at every other roster spot to make a deep run. Don’t go overboard here.

MORE CHALK:

MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

You won’t be sneaking these players past your opponents. But their projected ownership percentage is lower than the probability they will score more fantasy points than their salary implies. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their ownership projection.

QB: Jared Goff (vs. SF, $6,100, 7% owned)
Another week, another spot where Goff will go under-owned in a potentially high-scoring home game. Last season, Goff averaged an absurd 342 passing yards per game with a 22:3 TD:INT ratio in eight home games, compared to 243 yards and a 10:9 TD:INT ratio on the road. In two games in LA this season, he cleared 20 DraftKings points on just 29 pass attempts against New Orleans and went for 27.68 points vs. Tampa Bay despite playing poorly in real life. A repeat of the Buccanneers game script doesn’t seem far-fetched for this week’s matchup between San Francisco and LA. The 49ers suffocating defensive front could make life miserable for Goff, and if the Rams' recent defensive performances are any indication, there is a strong chance they’ll be faced with an early deficit. Another 45+ pass attempts could easily be in store for Goff, who can be cheaply stacked with Robert Woods ($5,600) and/or Brandin Cooks ($5,400), assuming the latter is able to clear the concussion protocol.

RB: Alvin Kamara (@JAX, $8,000, 10% owned)
If it weren’t for Todd Gurley’s quad injury, he likely would have been the pick here but Kamara will do just fine anytime his ownership projection is 10% or less. Those questioning Kamara’s ceiling without Drew Brees in the lineup are ignoring a 37-point outburst only three short weeks ago. Since Teddy Bridgewater took over for the Saints, Kamara has handled 74% of the team’s running back snaps, 77% of the rush attempts, and over 20 touches per game. If we assume New Orleans will keep riding Kamara like a bell-cow, and we have every reason to believe they will, doubling the crowd’s projected exposure is an easy call this week. Christian McCaffrey (237 total yards and three touchdowns) just reminded us how far removed the current Jacksonville defense is from the 2017 version.

WR: Dede Westbrook (vs. NO, $5,100, 3% owned)
Scroll back up to the D.J. Chark blurb if you need a refresher on the Saints' struggles against enemy slot wide receivers, then consider Westbrook has lined up in the slot on 89% of his snaps this season. After an awful start to the year (statistical and otherwise), Westbrook has started to come around. He’s averaging a healthy 8.6 targets per game over the last three games and cleared double-digit DraftKings points in all three. He’s not going to deliver the season many fantasy analysts were calling for over the summer, but he’s talented enough and seeing more than enough volume to exploit this soft matchup. If Chark busts and Westbrook scores 20+ fantasy points at a fraction of the ownership, you’ll instantly blow past a chunk of the field.

TE: Will Dissly (@CLE, $4,900, 7% owned)
Kittle, Andrews, and Hooper are shading Dissly a bit, which creates a nice mid-range buying opportunity. Dissly has now scored between 12.8 and 22 Draftkings points in each of his last four games. His early-season production seemed fluky but since Nick Vannett was traded prior to Week 4, Dissly has played on a combined 85% of Seattle’s offensive snaps and is the only tight end on the team running a significant number of pass routes. Russell Wilson has riffed with Dissly in the red zone, where his four receiving touchdowns are tied for the league lead. The duo should have few problems keeping it going against the Browns, who haven’t defended tight ends well for years now. Cleveland has been burned by Delanie Walker (6-5-55-2), Mark Andrews (8-4-31-1), and George Kittle (8-6-70-1) this season and their other matchups came against the Jets and Rams, who don’t usually feature tight ends in the passing game. Look for Dissly to find paydirt at least once in this matchup.

DST: Baltimore Ravens (vs. CIN, $4,100, 8% owned)
The Ravens defense hasn’t scored more than five DraftKings points since Week 1, and they’re priced way up this week, which should result in an ownership discount. Andy Dalton will have a difficult time exploiting Baltimore’s weak secondary if he doesn’t have time for plays to develop downfield. The Ravens defensive line vs. the Bengals offensive line is one of the biggest mismatches on this week’s slate. Football Outsiders ranks Baltimore’s defensive line eighth in their adjusted sack percentage metric while Cincinnati's offensive line has allowed the seventh-highest adjusted sack rate in the league. Rostering the Ravens also helps from a unique lineup construction standpoint on a slate most of the field will be paying down at DST.

MORE MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

Hitting on one-or-more of these players will gain you massive leverage on the field. Due to their low ownership, the better they perform, the faster your roster separates in the standings. Keep in mind, using a 5%-owned player in only 2-out-of-10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament. Be careful not to over-invest in these players, but you’ll need at least two from this ownership tier in your lineup for a shot at first place in most large-field GPPs.

QB: Baker Mayfield (vs. SEA, $5,500, 3% owned)
It’s been ugly for Mayfield this season and head coach Freddie Kitchens doesn’t look any closer to adjusting an offensive scheme that hasn’t played to his young quarterback’s strengths. But Cleveland is in a nice spot as short home underdogs against Seattle’s suspect pass defense. The Seahawks are allowing over 270 passing yards per game, which ranks 26th in the league and their defensive front doesn’t generate nearly as much pressure as the elite 49ers unit that flustered Mayfield last Monday night. With Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham projected in the 13-15% ownership range, Mayfield at 3% doesn’t add up. Browns/Seahawks makes for an interesting contrarian game stack in a matchup more than capable of blowing past its 46.5-point implied total.

RB: LeSean McCoy (vs. HOU, $5,600, 1% owned)
If Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy can be believed, McCoy’s lack of playing time in Week 5 was more the result of game flow and minor issues in pass-protection than a lost fumble and the healthy return of Damien Williams. After attempting only 10 rushes in the loss to Indianapolis, Kansas City may look to overcorrect a bit, which should put McCoy’s snap-share closer to 40% than last week’s 22%. From a point-per-dollar standpoint based on a median projection, McCoy is an admittedly awful play this week, but his implied ownership in comparison to Williams’ (8%) is out of wack. It can just as easily be McCoy who capitalizes on a short scoring opportunity or catches a screen pass for a long touchdown from Mahomes. There is also at least a small chance Williams has an in-game flareup of the leg injuries that have plagued him since the preseason, leaving McCoy as the primary ball-carrier.

WR: Preston Williams (vs. WAS, $4,100, 7% owned)
In Josh Rosen’s two starts this season, Williams has totaled a team-leading 19 targets and 40% market share of the Dolphins’ air yards. His production (19.4 combined DraftKings points), while not close to tournament-winning, hasn’t been terrible considering his low salary and the respectable defenses Miami has played. Coming out of a bye, Williams gets his easiest test to date against a Washington defensive backfield that has been beaten badly by perimeter wide receivers. The healthy return of Albert Wilson could ding his volume, but Rosen has been locked in on Williams since the preseason. Something in the neighborhood of a 7-5-75-1 receiving line is within reach.

TE: Ricky Seals-Jones (vs. SEA, $3,300, 1% owned)
Hat-tip to Footballguys’ Devin Knotts for pointing out Seattle has allowed 34 receptions to opposing running backs and tight ends over the last three weeks. Seals-Jones is a thin play due to his ~30% snap share since David Njoku went down, but Mayfield has looked his way downfield at least once per game over the last two weeks (15.8 average target depth). It wouldn’t be surprising to see him hang a big play on a Seattle defense that just gave up a career-best 11-7-136-0 receiving line to Gerald Everett. Throw Seals-Jones in a Mayfield stack and play chalk at every other position.

DST: Kansas City Chiefs (vs. HOU, $2,500, 4% owned)
Kansas City’s reputation as a lousy defense doesn’t change the fact they consistently show up for big games at Arrowhead. This week’s matchup against Houston should have a playoff atmosphere and the Chiefs lackluster pass rush might finally have an edge to exploit. The Texans are one of four teams to allow their quarterback to get sacked on more than 10% of their offensive plays. Even if the game is as high-scoring as everyone assumes, there is room for the one strip-sack fumble return it would take for Kansas City to appear in first-place lineups. If Mecole Hardman remains a starter, he makes for an interesting contrarian stacking partner with the Chiefs DST. A kick return touchdown would count double if you have both players in your lineup.

MORE CONTRARIAN PLAYS

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