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KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

• Kansas City at Oakland has the potential to finish with the highest collective ownership in DraftKings history. It’s not just the slate-leading 53-point over/under or the fact the Chiefs are popular every week. Sammy Watkins’ $2,200 price increase, while substantial, wasn’t enough to reflect his value in the absence of Tyreek Hill. To make matters worse, pricing was released prior to the Raiders playing on Monday Night Football, leaving Josh Jacobs ($4,700), Tyrell Williams ($4,400), and Darren Waller ($3,300) severely underpriced. You’ll be hard-pressed to find a lineup that doesn’t include at least two players from this game and full-game stacks will be commonplace.

• Look for the majority of lineups to spend up at quarterback, where Patrick Mahomes II ($7,500), Lamar Jackson ($6,700), and Tom Brady ($6,400) each have terrific matchups. Punting quarterback will be the exception, but entrants who want to save cap space will look to Josh Allen ($5,300) facing a listless Giants team on the road and Derek Carr ($5,100), who draws the same Kansas City defense that turned Jaguars rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew into an instant cult hero in Week 1.

• Similar to last week, the most obvious running back value lies in the middle price tier. Austin Ekeler ($6,100) scored a slate-busting 39.4 fantasy points in Week 1, yet was only bumped $600 in price. He could take on an even bigger role in the passing game due to injuries in LA’s pass-catching corps. Chris Carson ($6,400) remains moderately priced in a 75-25 workload split with Rashaad Penny. Matt Breida ($5,200) is looking at an expanded role with Tevin Coleman sidelined. And Jacobs’ price is off by at least $1,500 after we saw him handle 24 touches Monday night.

• The soft running back pricing, coupled with the Raiders players being mispriced, could lead to lots of balanced lineups, but also leaves plenty of room for running back spending. Whereas the field might be a bit nervous to splurge on Saquon Barkley ($9,200) and Ezekiel Elliott ($8,700) after ho-hum Week 1 performances, Alvin Kamara ($8,200) should be highly sought after in a road game against the Rams (52.5-point over/under).

• If the stock build includes an expensive quarterback, Jacobs, Ekeler, Kamara, and Watkins, there won’t be room for another wide receiver over $7,000. But those who pass up on Kamara are likely to look to Michael Thomas ($8,000) and Keenan Allen ($7,600) in the top tier of wideouts, each of whom is in line for massive target volume. Mid-priced receivers like Tyrell Williams, Larry Fitzgerald ($4,600), John Brown ($5,200), and possibly Mecole Hardman ($4,800) are the top candidates to fill in the remaining spots in the most common roster construction.

• At least 20% of the field will roster Travis Kelce (and you should do the same). The easiest way to squeeze Kelce in with the rest of the chalk is to step down from Kamara to Carson and punt WR3. Evan Engram ($5,200) will rival Kelce’s ownership at a $2,100 discount and appear in the most common construction more frequently. Waller ($3,300) and T.J. Hockenson ($3,000) will be popular in lineups that look to maximize spending at running back and wide receiver.

• The spread in New England at Miami is creeping towards 20 points in favor of the Patriots. New England’s defense ($3,700) will get piled on as a result, though they should be followed closely by the Texans. Houston ($2,800) is facing the unproven Minshew at home and the $900 savings are needed to fit a stud receiver alongside Jacobs, Ekeler, Kamara, Engram, and Watkins.

TAKING A STAND ON THE CHALK

These players are the odds-on favorites to score the most fantasy points relative to their respective salaries. The problem is most of your opponents are well aware. Fading popular plays entirely for the sake of differentiating your lineups is rarely the best decision when multi-entering tournaments. Instead, decide how much exposure you are comfortable with for each player in comparison to their projected ownership percentage. Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s highest-owned players:

QB: Lamar Jackson (vs. ARI, $6,700, 14% owned)
Jackson will see inflated ownership following his virtuoso Week 1 performance in Miami. While 324 passing yards, an 85% completion rate, and five touchdowns shouldn’t be expected this week, another top-3 quarterback finish for Jackson is more likely than not. Arizona’s defense allowed the Lions’ yawn-inducing offense to rack up 477 total yards in Week 1 (fifth-most in the league). Now they’re two-touchdown road underdogs, facing an electric dual-threat quarterback, in a game that will be played up in pace by both teams. Jackson ran the ball at least 11 times per start as a rookie, compared to only three rushing attempts last week. There is plenty of room for his passing numbers to regress without impacting his fantasy performance in a significant way. Make him one of the quarterbacks you build lineups around.

RB: Josh Jacobs (@KC, $4,700, 30% owned)
There’s no denying Jacobs is flagrantly mispriced. He was a workhorse from the opening whistle in his NFL debut, handling 74% of the Raiders running back snaps and 88% of the team’s total backfield touches. Kansas City allowed 27.2% more fantasy points to opposing running backs than league average last season and is down a pair of Pro Bowl-caliber outside linebackers from 2018. Price, projected workload, and matchup are all in Jacobs’ favor, but what happens if Oakland faces a negative game script this week? Jacobs ran just 10 pass routes in Week 1 and received a single target from Derek Carr. Granted, Jacobs wasn’t needed in the passing game with the Raiders getting out to an early lead, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see Jon Gruden turn back to Jalen Richard if Oakland is forced into hurry-up mode. Cash-game plays don’t come much better than Jacobs, but his tournament ownership is prohibitive for a player with a one-game track record. Play him at about half the field’s exposure.

WR: Sammy Watkins (vs. OAK, $7,300, 21% owned)
We may not see a better receiving line all year than the 11-9-198-3 (49.8 DraftKings points) Watkins hung on the Jaguars in Week 1. It’s doubtful a $7,200 price tag will be enough to make the crowd forget his highlight-reel downfield catches, especially in a meeting with the Raiders defense. Oakland’s secondary was a punching bag for enemy wideouts last year. Now, rookie safety Johnathan Abram (the No. 27 pick in this year’s draft) is out for the season and cornerback Gareon Conley won’t be playing at 100% after getting carted off with a neck injury in Week 1. Tyreek Hill’s absence opens up 25% of Kansas City’s targets from a year ago. While Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, and Damien Williams will account for a portion of those looks, Watkins is the clear beneficiary. At this time next week, he’ll cost $8,000 or more. Reserve a spot for Watkins in at least 20% of your lineups.

TE: Evan Engram (vs. BUF, $5,200, 11% owned)
We should expect Engram's ownership to rise by the time lineups lock on Sunday. Engram received a whopping 14 targets in Week 1 and is once again in line to receive all the opportunities he can handle. Golden Tate remains suspended, Sterling Shepard (concussion) has been ruled out, and even Cody Latimer (calf) is looking iffy for this week’s matchup with the Bills. The Giants shouldn’t have to pass as much at home against Buffalo as they did in last week’s shellacking at the hands of the Cowboys, but Engram’s volume may hold steady simply because Eli Manning has no one else to throw to. There isn’t a wide receiver in Engram’s price change with close to a similar target projection, making him near-impossible to fade. If he tops out around 20%, you’ll want to be at least even with the field.

DST: Houston Texans (vs. JAX, $2,800, 12% owned)
We don’t know much about the Jaguars sixth-round pick out of East Carolina, Garnder Minshew, besides he has a fabulous mustache and the ability to get the ball out quickly. Minshew was impressive in his first NFL action last week, completing 88% of his passes for 275 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs. The admirable performance came with Kansas City up big on the scoreboard, however, and Minshew won’t be the last quarterback the Chiefs struggle to defend this season. Playing on the road, in a division game, against a defense that boasts J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus up front, will be a far stiffer test. The crowd has it right if the Texans’ ownership remains around 10%.

MORE CHALK:

MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

You won’t be sneaking these players past your opponents. But their projected ownership percentage is lower than the probability they will score more fantasy points than their salary implies. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their ownership projection.

QB: Jared Goff (vs. NO, $5,900, 6% owned)
With the crowd focused on Mahomes, Jackson, and Brady, Goff will go somewhat overlooked despite the massive scoring potential in Saints at Rams. It’s usually a smart idea to go overweight on Goff when he’s at home. Last season, he averaged an absurd 342 passing yards per game with a 22:3 TD:INT ratio in eight home games, compared to 243 yards and a 10:9 TD:INT ratio on the road. Each Saints cornerback -- Marshon Lattimore, P.J. Williams, and Eli Apple -- gave up a pass play of at least 37 yards in Week 1. They’ll be put to the test again this week by Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Cooper Kupp. Stack the Rams’ passing game in about 15% of your tournament lineups.

RB: Damien Williams (@OAK, $5,800, 5% owned)
Who would have thought the leverage play in Chiefs at Raiders would be the starting running back on the league’s highest-scoring team? LeSean McCoy’s pair of 30+ yard runs in Week 1 has taken the shine off Williams, but he remains an excellent tournament play. Williams was in on two-thirds of the offensive snaps against the Jaguars, caught all six of his targets in the passing game, and touched the ball seven times when Kansas City got inside the red zone. McCoy’s presence keeps Williams out of the overall RB1 discussion, but certainly not out of returning 4x his salary at middling ownership. It would take about five receptions, 80 total yards, and two touchdowns, which still remains below Williams’ peak range of outcomes, especially with Hill’s targets near the line of scrimmage up for grabs.

WR: Christian Kirk (vs. BAL, $4,500, 5% owned)
Larry Fitzgerald looked rejuvenated catching downfield lasers from Kyler Murray in Week 1. The future Hall of Famer popped in the boxscore with a 13-8-113-1 receiving line (28.3 DraftKings points), which shaded Kirk, who underwhelmed with four catches for 32 yards. A look under the hood, however, reveals better times are ahead for Kirk. He was on the field for 93% of Arizona’s snaps, lined up in the slot (a critical position in Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense) 89% of the time, commanded 12 targets, and finished with 139 air yards. Baltimore lost starting nickel corner, Tavon Young, to a neck injury before the start of the season, and their best perimeter cornerback, Jimmy Smith, will miss this game with a sprained knee. The matchup for Kirk (and Fitzgerald) is better than it appears on the surface and the opportunities should be there as well, given the sheer volume of plays we can expect the Cardinals to run.

TE: Mark Andrews (vs. ARI, $3,800, 10% owned)
Andrews is far from sneaky after he made good on the preseason hype with eight catches, 108 yards, and a touchdown in Baltimore’s blowout win over Miami. But with both Waller and Hockensen available for less, many entrants will talk themselves out of chasing Andrews’ Week 1 stat line due to his three-way timeshare with Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle. Andrews was targeted on 43% of his routes, which led all tight ends last week. There is no doubt that rate regresses (he was targeted on 18% of his routes in Jackson’s seven starts in 2018), but Andrews has great rapport with Jackson dating back to last year and he’s playing against the same defense Hockenson (9-6-131-1) dusted in his first NFL game a week ago. The odds Andrews has another huge game are close to even with this being the week his low snap-share catches up with him.

DST: New York Giants (vs. BUF, $2,500, 4% owned)
The Giants field one of the worst defenses in the league, but it’s open season on Josh Allen until further notice. The mistake-prone second-year quarterback was picked off twice last week by the Jets (including once for a touchdown), fumbled twice (none lost), and was sacked once. New York doesn’t offer any type of floor here. Buffalo is likely to score 20+ points and the Giants defensive front won’t bring a ton of pressure. But no other defense priced below $3,000 has a better chance of producing multiple turnovers.

MORE MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

Hitting on one-or-more of these players will gain you massive leverage on the field. Due to their low ownership, the better they perform, the faster your roster separates in the standings. Keep in mind, using a 5%-owned player in only 2-out-of-10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament. Be careful not to over-invest in these players, but you’ll need at least two from this ownership tier in your lineup for a shot at first place in most large-field GPPs.

QB: Andy Dalton (vs. SF, $5,400, 3% owned)
While Cincinnati won’t call a pass on 80% of their plays again, as long as they’re keeping it close with San Francisco, new head coach Zac Taylor seems sharp enough to realize passing gives his team the best chance of moving the ball in this matchup. The 49ers defensive line has rounded into one of the league’s best while the Bengals offensive line is once again in shambles. Dalton will be forced to get the ball out quickly, which favors short-area targets like Tyler Boyd, Tyler Eifert, and whoever starts at running back for Cincinnati. The wild card for Dalton is John Ross. Ross has a massive speed advantage over Richard Sherman. He averaged 4.4 yards of separation at the catch-point last week, ran a diverse route tree, and can easily take a short slant to the house if the offensive line doesn’t allow enough time for plays to develop downfield. The odds of the Bengals passing attack being for real under Taylor are greater than 2%, making Dalton a solid play.

RB: David Johnson (@BAL, $7,100, 5% owned)
The matchup against Baltimore’s defensive front isn’t a good one, especially with the Cardinals already troublesome offensive line down a starter from last week. If this were 2018, Johnson would warrant low ownership but Kliff Kingsbury has restored his game-flow independence. These tweets from Pro Football Focus’ Scott Barrett tell the story best. Johnson should be on your list any time we can safely project him to be low-owned.

David Johnson lined up as a wide receiver 15 times in Week 1

Only once in all of 2018 did a RB line up as a WR over 15 times in a single game (Kamara, Week 1)

Johnson lined up as a WR only 16 times all of last year

In 2016, he lined up as a WR 182 times (11.4 per game)

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 11, 2019

WR: DeVante Parker (vs. NE, $4,100, 2% owned)
The Dolphins were forced to pass on 75% of their dropbacks last week and face a similar game script against the Patriots. Albert Wilson is a likely scratch, which leaves Parker as Miami’s de facto WR1. Parker didn’t light the world on fire in Week 1 (7-3-75-0) but he did have a 49-yard catch and was the Dolphins’ busiest receiver. He led Miami’s wide receiver corps in snaps (76%), routes tun, targets, and air yards (163) in the blowout loss to Baltimore. Shadow coverage from Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore is less than ideal, but Parker is cheap, athletic, and a darkhorse candidate to reach double-digit targets.

TE: Mike Gesicki (vs. NE, $2,700, 2% owned)
Two Dolphins in one lineup is at least one too many, but Gesicki is another young, athletic Miami pass-catcher with the potential to see volume this week. Gesicki’s 6-2-31-0 stat line from Week 1 was unimpressive, but like Parker, his underlying usage was encouraging. He was the clear starter over Nick O’Leary and ran 27 pass routes, which ranked 14th among tight ends. Most interestingly, Gesicki led all NFL pass-catchers (not just tight ends) in yards of separation at the catch point in Week 1. Even if he never becomes a nuanced player with a great feel for the position, Gesicki is basically George Kittle’s athletic equal. If he continues getting six opportunities per game, he will eventually run fast downfield and jump over a safety for a long touchdown catch.

DST: Tennesee Titans (vs. IND, $3,100, 3% owned)
The Colts offensive line did a nice job protecting Jacoby Brissett in LA last week, but let’s see it happen one more time -- in a division road game -- before we’re sure Brissett isn’t one of the most sack-prone quarterbacks in the league. Even if Indianapolis’ offensive line can handle the Titans pass-rush, this will be a tougher game for their offense on the whole. Tennessee was one of the stingiest teams against the run last season and they picked up where they left off in 2018 by shutting down Nick Chubb in their opener. If Maron Mack isn’t able to dominate the way he did against the Chargers, it will fall on Brissett to carry the offense, which he hasn’t yet proven capable of.

MORE CONTRARIAN PLAYS

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