Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
FanDuel: Prescott ($8,100) + Cooper ($8,100) = $16,200
DraftKings: Prescott ($6,700) + Cooper ($7,700) = $14,400
Facing the No. 23 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 28 ranked pass defense allowing 272.4 yards per game
Game Total - 51.5
Implied Totals - Cowboys at 28 points and Lions at 23.5 points
Game Line - Dallas Cowboys -4.5
The Dallas Cowboys are on the road this weekend as they face the Detroit Lions on Sunday for a Week 11 NFC matchup. This game carries the second-highest total of the week, and points are expected here. The Cowboys are expected to hit four touchdowns in the game, and it is not all that difficult to see Prescott and company going over in this game because the Lions are struggling in all phases on defense.
Prescott is playing excellent football in 2019, throwing for 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions through nine games. He has thrown for 2777 yards, and on the ground, he has accumulated 175 yards to go with three scores. Prescott is beating teams in a variety of ways, and he has a chance to have a huge game this week as the Lions are struggling to defend the pass.
The Lions have allowed 19 scores through the air which are fifth-most in the NFL. They have surrendered a 7.7-yard average which is ninth-highest in the league. They have also yielded 40 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only four teams in the NFL allow more. They have also given up six passing plays of 40-plus yards which are tenth-most in the NFL.
The Lions have struggled to generate pressure on the quarterback, registering only 19 sacks to date. Only four teams in the league have fewer sacks in 2019. Prescott can be very dangerous when given time in the pocket, and he will have that in this game which will allow routes to develop.
The Lions are struggling to defend the pass, and they are not able to cover receivers for long periods. The Cowboys protect their quarterback exceptionally well, allowing only 11 sacks in 2019, and no team has allowed fewer sacks to this point in the season. The Lions are not generating pressure, and that means big things for the Cowboys game.
Cooper is the first option in the Cowboys passing attack. He has 28 targets over the past four games, catching 21 passes for 336 yards and two scores over that span. He is a tough receiver to cover with his size and route-running chops, and the Lions will have their hands full against him this week.
The Prescott and Cooper stack is an excellent GPP option for Week 11, and one that could pay off in a big way. However, Cooper is questionable with a knee injury as of this writing, and you will want to pay attention to his status throughout the week to guarantee he will play on Sunday.
Pivot: Wide receiver Michael Gallup ($6,700 at FanDuel and $6,500 at DraftKings) may be an incredibly savvy GPP play in this matchup as he will likely avoid star cornerback Darius Slay. He is a big-play weapon, and he has a chance to have a monster game in this high-scoring affair.
Tight end Jason Witten ($5,600 at FanDuel and $3,700 at DraftKings) is worth a dart’s throw at his price while considering the extremely positive script for the Cowboys passing attack.
FanDuel: Brees ($8,300) + Thomas ($9,000) = $17,300
DraftKings: Brees ($6,900) + Thomas ($9,900) = $16,800
Facing the No. 27 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 32 ranked pass defense allowing 298.9 yards per game
Game Total - 50.5
Implied Totals - Saints at 28 points and Buccaneers at 22.5 points
Game Line - New Orleans Saints -5.5
The New Orleans Saints are at home versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a Week 11 NFC South contest, and they are a 5.5-point home favorite in this matchup. This game has the second-highest total of the week (50.5), and the implied number for the Saints has them at four scores (28). The Saints have the opportunity to put up big numbers against an underperforming Buccaneers defense this week.
Brees tore a ligament in his thumb and missed almost six weeks of action before returning in Week 8 versus the Arizona Cardinals. He went off in Week 8, throwing for 373 yards and three scores to go along with an interception. The Saints had a bye in Week 9, and they saw the Falcons in Week 10. Brees threw the ball 45 times last week but did not throw a touchdown. That should change this week.
The Buccaneers have given up 22 scores through the air which are third-most in the NFL. They allow a 7.7-yard average which is ninth-highest in the NFL. They have given up 38 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are seventh-most in the NFL. Also, they have yielded eight plays of 40-plus yards which are fifth-most in the league.
The game script is calling for plenty of passing in this contest, and the numbers the Buccaneers have defended back that up. The Buccaneers have defended an average of 41.2 passes per game, and no team in the NFL has defended more. It is safe to assume a high volume of passing for Brees and the Saints aerial attack in Week 11.
Thomas is easily the first option in the Saints passing attack, and he saw 11 targets in Brees’ return in Week 8, catching 11 passes for 112 yards and a score. Thomas saw 14 targets last week versus Atlanta, catching 13 balls for 152 yards. The volume he sees makes him worthy of consideration every week.
The script is incredibly positive for the Saints passing attack, and Thomas should be able to exploit this matchup in a significant way. Yes, he is expensive, but the combination of volume and matchup makes him worthy of GPP play in Week 11.
Pivot: Wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr Jr. ($5,200 at FanDuel and $4,100 at DraftKings) is a volatile option, but it will not take much target volume to get to GPP value. He can take the top off the defense in a flash and can score from long distance quickly. He is worth rostering due to the matchup against a porous Buccaneers secondary.
Tight end Jared Cook ($6,000 at FanDuel and $4,400 at DraftKings) is starting to emerge as a weapon for the Saints after starting the season slowly. Cook scored a touchdown in Week 5 and Week 6, but missed the next two games due to injury. He returned last week and saw 10 targets from Brees, catching six passes for 74 yards. He is a fantastic option for GPP play in Week 11.
Jimmy Garoppolo + Deebo Samuel
FanDuel: Garoppolo ($8,000) + Samuel ($5,600) = $13,600
DraftKings: Garoppolo ($6,700) + Samuel ($4,000) = $10,700
Facing the No. 26 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 31 ranked pass defense allowing 286.5 yards per game
Game Total - 46
Implied Totals - 49ers at 29 points and Cardinals at 17 points
Game Line - San Francisco 49ers -11.5
The San Francisco 49ers are at home versus the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday for a Week 11 NFC West matchup. The 49ers have the second-highest implied number of the week (29), and the expectation is they’ll go over four scores.
Garoppolo has been solid this year, but he has only had one big game in 2019. That game came back in Week 9 against this same Cardinals team on the road. Garoppolo threw for 317 yards and four scores in that game, and that’s the blueprint for this week. If the 49ers are going over four scores, it is entirely reasonable to expect Garoppolo to be heavily involved in that.
The Cardinals have given up 25 scores through the air which are most in the NFL. They are surrendering an 8.2-yard average which is fourth-highest in the NFL. The Cardinals have given up 43 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL. Garoppolo can torch the Cardinals at home this week.
Samuel is a very savvy route runner capable of creating separation quickly in his route. He can also create separation down the field as his footwork is fantastic, and he can beat the Cardinals secondary in this contest. He is starting to emerge as a primary option for the 49ers, and he starting to see enough target volume to consider for GPP play.
Samuel has 21 targets over the past three games since the 49ers traded for wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. He has caught 15 passes in that span while registering 171 yards. He also has a rushing touchdown, and it appears the 49ers are trying to get the ball into his hands as he is like a bowling ball, challenging to bring down.
There is a definite path to GPP productivity for Samuel, and he should be able to exploit this matchup in Week 11.
Pivot: Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders ($6,900 at FanDuel and $7,200 at DraftKings) is an elite route runner, and he is a fantastic option in this matchup. He has 18 targets since coming to San Francisco (he missed the majority of the game last week), and he has caught 13 passes for 161 yards and two scores. He is questionable with a rib injury, but if he plays, he has a chance to have a massive game against a defense that cannot defend the pass. He saw nine targets against the Cardinals two weeks ago, catching seven passes for 112 yards and a score. Monitor his status throughout the week and look for a practice, which is an indication that he will play.
Wide receiver Kendrick Bourne ($4,800 at FanDuel and $3,000 at DraftKings) is an extremely viable option is Sanders missed the game. He has scored in back-to-back weeks, and he could explode with an expanded role in the 49ers offense given the matchup.
Tight end Ross Dwelley ($4,900 at FanDuel and $3,400 at DraftKings) will fill in for tight end George Kittle as he battles a knee injury. Dwelley has a definitive pathway for success in GPP play in Week 11 as the Cardinals have been torched by the tight end throughout the 2019 season.
The Cardinals struggle to handle the tight end, and let’s look at what they have done this year. They gave up six catches, 131 yards, and a score to T.J. Hockenson in Week 1 against the Lions. Ravens tight end Mark Andrews lit them up for eight catches, 112 yards, and a score in Week 2.
Panthers tight end Greg Olsen hit the Cardinals for 75 yards, two scores, and six catches in Week 3. In Week 4, it was Seahawks tight end Will Dissly’s turn. He went for seven catches, 57 yards, and a score. The Cardinals slowed the Bengals tight ends in Week 5, but Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton did miss tight end Tyler Eifert in the red zone.
It was Falcons tight end Austin Hooper’s turn to light up the Cardinals defense in Week 6, and he delivered. He had eight catches for 117 yards and a score. In Week 8, backup quarterback Taysom Hill and tight end Josh Hill took advantage of this matchup.
Kittle caught six passes for 79 yards and a score against the Cardinals two weeks ago, and Buccaneers tight end O.J. Howard caught four passes for 47 yards and scored a touchdown against the Cardinals last week. Rostering a tight end playing against Arizona has been a roadmap to production in 2019, and it is Dwelley’s turn this week.
FanDuel: Allen ($7,200) + Samuel ($6,300) = $13,500
DraftKings: Allen ($5,300) + Samuel ($5,300) = $10,600
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 25 ranked pass defense allowing 260.8 yards per game
Game Total - 50
Implied Totals - Panthers at 28 points and Falcons at 22 points
Game Line - Carolina Panthers -5.5
The Carolina Panthers are at home versus the Atlanta Falcons for a Week 11 NFC South contest, and they are a 5.5-point home favorite in this matchup. This game has the fourth-highest total of the week (50), and the implied number for the Panthers has them at four scores (28). The Panthers have the opportunity to put up big numbers against a poor Falcons secondary this week.
Allen stepped in for injured starter Cam Newton in Week 3, and he has played admirably, guiding the Panthers to five wins in the seven games he has started. He has thrown for 10 scores, five interceptions, and 1598 yards in those seven games. He should be able to build on those numbers in Week 11.
The Falcons have given up 19 scores through the air which are fifth-most in the NFL. They allow an 8.2-yard average which is fourth-highest across the league. They have given up 33 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only eleven teams have yielded more of these plays.
Now consider that the Falcons have only defended 32.9 passes per game (eight teams across the league have defended fewer), and those numbers show how easy they are to beat with the pass. Another consideration here is the Falcons cannot pressure the quarterback. The Falcons have generated 13 sacks in 2019, and only one team in the NFL has fewer sacks in 2019.
Allen should have time in the pocket, and that time will let routes develop in this game. The Panthers receivers should be able to exploit the Falcons secondary with that expanded time, and Allen and the Panthers receiving options should be able to generate excellent production in Week 11.
Samuel has seen 31 targets in the past four games, and he has caught 15 passes for 215 yards, but he has scored three touchdowns over that span. He is getting into the end zone, and there is significant value in that. The script is exceptionally favorable for the Panthers passing attack, and Samuel should continue to score touchdowns in Week 11.
Pivot: Wide receiver D.J. Moore ($6,000 at FanDuel and $5,900 at DraftKings) is seeing more targets than any other Panthers receiver, and if he can get into the end zone he will be of great value. He has seen 40 targets in the past four games, and he has caught 28 passes for 332 yards, but he has not scored. The Panthers continue to feed Moore, and it is only a matter of time before he breaks out with touchdowns to match the excellent season he is having. Moore is on pace to catch 96 passes and register 1216 yards, and he should have opportunities to get into the end zone this week, and that makes him a fantastic GPP play in Week 11.
Tight end Greg Olsen ($5,100 at FanDuel and $3,900 at DraftKings) is an intriguing GPP option against the Falcons as he can make good things happen in the red zone. The game script is very favorable for the Panthers receiving weapons, and Olsen has a chance to have a big game on Sunday which makes him an excellent GPP option in Week 11.
RB/DST Stacks
Ezekiel Elliott + Cowboys Defense
FanDuel: Elliott ($8,400) + Cowboys ($4,100) = $12,500
DraftKings: Elliott ($9,000) + Cowboys ($3,600) = $12,600
Facing the No. 20 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 26 ranked run defense allowing 129.7 yards per game
Game Total - 51.5
Implied Totals - Cowboys at 28 points and Lions at 22.5 points
Game Line - Dallas Cowboys -4.5
The Dallas Cowboys are on the road versus the Detroit Lions on Sunday for a Week 11 NFC matchup. The Cowboys are a 4.5-point road favorite, and they should be able to take advantage of the Lions defense via the run on Sunday. Elliott could have a massive game versus the Lions in Week 11 as the game script is extremely favorable for the Cowboys running game.
The Lions allow a 4.6-yard average, and only seven teams across the league allow a higher average. The Lions have allowed nine scores on the ground which is eighth-most in the NFL. They have also yielded six runs of 20-plus yards which are seventh-most in the NFL. Also, they have yielded two runs of 40-plus yards which are fifth-most in the NFL.
Lions starting quarterback Matthew Stafford missed last week’s game with a back injury, and his status is very much up in the air for Week 11. Backup quarterback Jeff Driskel is a different type of quarterback than Stafford, and he is prone to staring down his receiver which led to an interception last week.
The script calls for the Cowboys to jump out to a lead, and that will force the Lions to utilize their aerial attack to stay in the game. Driskel is a bit of a liability as a passer, and if he is forced to throw a lot here, it means the potential for fantasy points via sacks and turnovers for the Cowboys defense.
We will likely see the Cowboys up and utilizing the running game to run out the clock while forcing the Lions to throw the ball to hang in this contest. That means great things for this stack, and it has a chance to put up big numbers on Sunday, making it an excellent option for GPP play in Week 11.
Josh Jacobs + Raiders Defense
FanDuel: Jacobs ($8,000) + Raiders ($5,000) = $13,000
DraftKings: Jacobs ($6,900) + Raiders ($3,300) = $10,200
Facing the No. 29 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 32 ranked run defense allowing 173 yards per game
Game Total - 49
Implied Totals - Raiders at 30 points and Bengals at 19 points
Game Line - Oakland Raiders -10.5
The Oakland Raiders are at home versus the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday for a Week 11 AFC matchup. The Raiders are a 10.5-point home favorite, and they will attack their opponents’ weakness in this game, and that happens to be the Bengals run defense.
The Bengals allow a 5.2-yard average which is the highest average allowed in the NFL in 2019. The Bengals have allowed 12 scores in the ground which are second-most in the NFL. They have surrendered 16 runs of 20-plus yards which are most in the NFL.
The Bengals have defended the second-most runs in the NFL (302), and they defend the highest number of runs on a per-game basis (33.6). The game script is calling for a heavy dose of running by the Raiders in this game, and Jacobs has a chance to have a massive game on Sunday.
The Bengals have surrendered the seventh-most sacks (31) in the NFL, and the game script has the Raiders up and forcing the Bengals to open up the offense and throw the ball to stay in the game. Rookie quarterback Ryan Finley is starting for the Bengals, and there will be opportunities for the Raiders defense to take advantage of him this week.
That means more chances for sacks, and while the Raiders have been a middle of the pack defense in terms of sacks, they will have more opportunities there this week. Both sides of this stack should be very productive on Sunday, and it makes for a super intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 11.
Note that Jacobs is questionable as of this writing with a shoulder injury, and you want to watch the practice reports and injury updates throughout the week to make sure he will play.
