Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
FanDuel: Brady ($7,600) + Edelman ($6,500) = $14,100
DraftKings: Brady ($6,500) + Edelman ($6,300) = $12,800
Facing the No. 26 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 18 ranked pass defense allowing 251.8 yards per game
Game Total - 43.5
Implied Totals - Patriots at 29 points and Redskins at 14.5 points
Game Line - New England Patriots -15
The New England Patriots travel to face the Washington Redskins on Sunday for a Week 4 matchup. The Redskins are struggling in all phases, and they are a huge underdog at home this week. The Patriots have the second-highest implied total (29) of the week, and they are going to put points on the board in this contest.
Brady started the 2019 season on a strong note, throwing for seven touchdowns and 911 yards over the first three games. He also kicked in a rushing touchdown, and the Patriots offense looked potent. He struggled in Buffalo last week, but he should bounce back this week and put up excellent numbers.
The Redskins have allowed 10 scores through the air which is second-most in the NFL. While they have done a relatively adequate job, offenses have been able to hit the Redskins defense to all parts of the field. There is not something standing out as a weakness, and certainly, nothing looks like a strength. Brady and company will be able to pick apart this defense at will.
Also, only one team in the NFL has fewer sacks than the five the Redskins have registered. The Redskins have not been able to apply pressure on the quarterback, and if Brady has extra time to get comfortable, the Redskins secondary is in for a long, bad day.
Edelman is the first option in the Patriots passing attack, but there are plenty of weapons to go around here. Edelman has seen 32 targets in four games. He has converted 21 of those targets into catches for 226 yards and one score. Edelman’s volume was down last week as we played through a lingering chest injury. Edelman is still on the injury report as of Wednesday with the chest injury, so monitor his status throughout the week.
The Patriots use Edelman in the quick-passing game as he runs incredibly precise routes that create separation quickly. It feels like the short passes to Edelman are an extension of the Patriots running attack.
If Edelman is recovered Sunday and can put the chest injury behind him, then his volume should increase and make him a viable option for GPP play in Week 5.
Pivot: Wide receiver Josh Gordon ($6,200 at FanDuel and $6,100 at DraftKings) is an intriguing option, but he is more a swing for the fences type of play with a limited role in the offense. Gordon is questionable with a knee injury, and you’ll want to monitor his status throughout the rest of the week.
Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett ($5,400 at FanDuel and $4,900 at DraftKings) is super intriguing as he saw nine targets last week. He does not need a lot of targets to get to GPP production, and he is almost a no-brainer if Gordon were to miss this game.
Tight end Ben Watson ($5,200 at FanDuel and $3,700 at DraftKings) returns from a four-game suspension, and the first thing we need to know is that he is not replacing Rob Gronkowski, the player. However, the tight end position has been ignored to this point, and the Patriots want to utilize it, and it seems that Watson can come in and handle targets and produce at a high rate immediately.
Patrick Mahomes II + Sammy Watkins
FanDuel: Mahomes ($9,200) + Watkins ($6,600) = $15,800
DraftKings: Mahomes ($7,500) + Watkins ($6,700) = $14,200
Facing the No. 24 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 13 ranked pass defense allowing 230.5 yards per game
Game Total - 56.5
Implied Totals - Chiefs at 33.5 points and Colts at 23 points
Game Line - Kansas City Chiefs -10.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are at home versus the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5, and they are a 10.5-point home favorite over a team that has played fairly well to start the season. This game has the highest total of the week (56.5), and the implied number for the Chiefs has them at almost five scores (33.5). Mahomes and the Chiefs passing attack have a chance to have a big game in this matchup.
Mahomes started the 2019 season on a scorching pace through three games. He threw for 10 scores to go along with 1195 yards in his first three games this season. They traveled to Detroit in Week 4, and the Lions held him in check, but the Chiefs offense is potent, and Mahomes can get right back on track this week.
The Colts are a middle of the pack pass defense because they are not allowing much volume in the passing game. They have defended 127 passes which are eighth-fewest in the NFL. They have played two teams with potent passing games (Chargers in Week 1 and Falcons in Week 3), and in both games they have allowed 300-plus yards passing and three scores.
The Colts have allowed nine touchdowns in 2019 which are third-most in the NFL. When looking game-by-game, it seems reasonably realistic to see Mahomes hit the Colts for three-plus touchdowns and 300-plus yards.
Watkins has had a hot start to the season in 2019, as he has seen 38 targets in four games. He has registered 23 catches for 365 yards and three scores this season, and he has been one of the Chiefs primary weapons with receiver Tyreek Hill out.
The game script is very positive for the offense overall, and Mahomes and Watkins can put up points quickly which makes them a very intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 5.
Pivot: Wide receiver Tyreek Hill ($7,600 at FanDuel and $7,000 at DraftKings) practiced on a limited fashion Wednesday, but his status for this week’s game is unclear. Starting him would be incredibly risky.
Wide receiver Mecole Hardman ($6,100 at FanDuel and $5,000 at DraftKings) is a vertical threat, capable of taking the top off the defense quickly. If Hill is in the starting lineup, then it is safe to remove Hardman from consideration.
Wide receiver Demarcus Robinson ($6,500 at FanDuel and $5,300 at DraftKings) is making the most of his targets as he is scoring touchdowns at a remarkable rate. He also led the Chiefs in targets last week with nine, and he remains a threat within this offense.
Tight end Travis Kelce ($7,500 at FanDuel and $7,300 at DraftKings) continues his stellar and consistent play in 2019. He has been targeted 33 times (three games with eight targets and one game with nine), and he has caught 24 passes (seven in each of the past three games) for 369 yards and a score.
Deshaun Watson + DeAndre Hopkins
FanDuel: Watson ($8,000) + Hopkins ($8,500) = $16,500
DraftKings: Watson ($6,700) + Hopkins ($7,800) = $14,500
Facing the No. 21 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 7 ranked pass defense allowing 215.2 yards per game
Game Total - 49
Implied Totals - Texans at 27 points and Falcons at 22 points
Game Line - Houston Texans -5
The Houston Texans are home versus the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday for a Week 5 matchup that has the potential to be a high-scoring affair. This game has the third-highest total of the week (49), and the Texans have the fourth-highest implied total of the week (27) and are forecast to score almost four touchdowns in this matchup.
Watson has come out of the gate in a bit of an up and down fashion. He has gone off for big numbers in Week 1 versus New Orleans and Week 3 versus the Chargers. He was slowed in Week 2 versus Jacksonville and Week 4 versus Carolina.
His rushing yardage and scores are keeping his floor elevated, and expanding his ceiling in those big games. He gets a very favorable matchup this week, one that looks like the Week 1 and Week 3 matchups. He should have a big game this week and is a very safe GPP option in Week 5.
He draws a Falcons defense that was just torched by Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota for three sores. Two weeks ago, it was Brissett and the Colts that hit the Falcons for two scores. The Falcons pass defense is trending negatively, and the Texans can exploit them with their passing attack.
Also, the Falcons are struggling to generate pressure and have only registered five sacks in 2019. Only one team in the NFL has fewer sacks to start this season, and that means Watson will have time to allow routes to develop, and he will pick apart this secondary.
Hopkins is one of the game’s best receivers, capable of winning to all areas of the field via his route running skills. He is also a monster with the ball in the air, and that makes him a weapon in the vertical game, and in the red zone.
Hopkins has been targeted 36 times through the season’s first four games, catching 24 passes for 259 yards and two scores (both in Week 1). The game script is very positive for Hopkins, and he should be able to take advantage and make plays down the field and in the red zone this week.
The Falcons offense has the potential to be potent, and it can push the Texans to keep throwing the football. If that happens, it means great things for this stack, making it worthy of selection for GPP play in Week 5.
Pivot: Wide receivers Will Fuller ($5,700 at FanDuel and $4,500 at DraftKings) and Kenny Stills ($5,300 at FanDuel and $4,300 at DraftKings) are both intriguing options in this matchup, and both are worthy of selection. Note that Stills is questionable with a hamstring injury, and you will need to monitor his status as the week unfolds.
Wide receiver Keke Coutee ($4,500 at FanDuel and $3,400 at DraftKings) is an absolute steal of a play if Stills does not play in this contest. He is like a free square on a bingo card, and the savings you get from rostering him allows for spending up elsewhere.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Brissett ($7,300) + Hilton ($7,400) = $14,700
DraftKings: Brissett ($5,300) + Hilton ($6,200) = $11,500
Facing the No. 9 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 20 ranked pass defense allowing 258.8 yards per game
Game Total - 56.5
Implied Totals - Colts at 23 points and Chiefs at 33.5 points
Game Line - Indianapolis Colts +10.5
The Indianapolis Colts are on the road as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs for a Week 5 AFC showdown. This game has the highest total of the week (56.5) and is a matchup that has shootout potential.
The Colts are expected to score a shade over three touchdowns, but a close look at the Chiefs game logs might tell us they could go over that number, and that is where you will find value. Three of the four teams the Chiefs have faced have gone over their implied total. One could say the Chiefs offense is forcing the opposition to throw the ball to keep pace or play catch up late in games.
The Chiefs have given up seven scores through the air which is eleventh-most in the NFL. Also, they have given up 17 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only five teams in the NFL have yielded more. Brissett is going to have to challenge this defense down the field, and the Chiefs are susceptible.
Hilton is easily the first option in the Colts passing attack, and he is capable of making plays all over the field. However, he has an injured quad and did not practice on Wednesday, and that brings risk to this stack. Does he re-injure himself if he plays?
Hilton did not play last week, but he was 25 times in the season’s first three weeks. He has caught 20 passes for 195 yards, and he has scored in each game he has played this year. He scored twice in Week 1, once in Week 2, and once in Week 3.
The Colts have a relatively low implied total, and if they struggle to get things going, they will have a long day, and that brings risk too. Adding more risk is that Hilton is injured, and there is always a chance he may re-injure himself during the game which would crush a lineup.
His status must be monitored throughout the week to ensure he will play on Sunday. However, you must be comfortable with all of the risk here before deciding to roster this stack.
Pivot: Wide receiver Parris Campbell ($5,400 at FanDuel and $4,600 at DraftKings) saw eight targets last week with Hilton out, but he is dealing with an abdominal injury and has not practiced this week. He needs to practice in full to be a viable option, and even then, he brings risk too.
Wide receiver Zach Pascal ($5,500 at FanDuel and $4,800 at DraftKings) is a super intriguing option in this high-scoring matchup. He saw seven targets last week and caught four passes for 72 yards. Pascal could have a big week if Hilton is out, or limited. He is worthy of the throw of the dart.
Tight end Eric Ebron ($5,300 at FanDuel and $4,000 at DraftKings) is struggling with his hands and is reported to have had multiple drops last week. However, he caught a 48-yard touchdown to salvage his stat line. The Colts need him with multiple weapons banged up.
FanDuel: Winston ($7,600) + Evans ($7,700) = $14,300
DraftKings: Winston ($6,200) + Evans ($7,100) = $13,300
Facing the No. 26 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 24 ranked pass defense allowing 279.2 yards per game
Game Total - 47
Implied Totals - Buccaneers at 22 points and Saints at 25 points
Game Line - Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on the road in Week 5 as they face the New Orleans Saints in a pivotal NFC South matchup. This game has the fourth-highest total of the week (47), but the Buccaneers are only expected to score three touchdowns in this contest. This game represents value if you think the
Buccaneers are going to score more points than that.
Both teams are going to give up yards to each team’s passing attack. Tampa Bay gives up the second-most yards, and New Orleans gives up the ninth-most in the NFL. It seems the Saints want to be more conservative with Bridgewater at quarterback, but there is meat on the bone here for the Buccaneers to go over their implied number.
There is risk though if the Saints take the air out of the ball and get conservative on offense to reduce the number of possessions they give to the Buccaneers. A conservative Saints offense puts a cap on the Buccaneers offensive ceiling.
Winston has looked relatively sharp over the past few games in head coach Bruce Arians' vertical passing attack. He has back-to-back weeks of 380-plus passing yards and seven passing touchdowns over that span. The Buccaneers have to firepower to be an incredibly potent offense if they can keep things going in the right direction.
The Saints are surrendering an 8.4-yard average which is sixth-highest in the NFL. They have given up 16 passing plays of 20+ yards and only nine teams in the NFL have allowed more. The Saints have also allowed five passing plays of 40-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL. Those are good numbers for the Buccaneers vertical attack.
Evans and wide receiver Chris Godwin are 1A and 1B in the Buccaneers passing attack. Both are heavily involved, and the recommendation is to choose one of them as both have been incredibly productive. Evans has 35 targets through four games, and he has converted 18 into catches. He has 368 yards receiving and four touchdowns in 2019, and he sees enough volume that he should be a safe start this week.
Pivot: Godwin ($7,800 at FanDuel and $6,900 at DraftKings) is just as viable a play as Evans is, and he has been heavily involved as well. He has 33 targets through four games, 14 of them coming last week. Godwin has 26 catches and 386 yards to go along with four scores. Godwin is dealing with a hip injury, and you want to see him practice before rostering him.
RB/DST Stacks
David Montgomery + Bears Defense
FanDuel: Montgomery ($5,700) + Bears ($5,000) = $10,700
DraftKings: Montgomery ($5,200) + Bears ($3,800) = $9,000
Facing the No. 9 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 16 ranked run defense allowing 104.5 yards per game
Game Total - 40
Implied Totals - Bears at 22 points and Raiders at 18 points
Game Line - Chicago Bears -4.5
The Chicago Bears are on the road versus the Oakland Raiders on Sunday for a Week 5 matchup. The Bears are a 4.5-point road favorite, and Montgomery and the running game should have plenty of opportunities to make plays in this game.
The Raiders have yielded four runs of 20-plus yards, and only five teams across the league have allowed more. The Raiders have surrendered three scores on the ground, and that is in the middle of the pack in the NFL. However, the Bears ground game will be leaned on heavily, and there should be more volume for the rushing attack this week.
The Raiders are going to struggle to handle the Bears defense, specifically when they try to throw the ball. The Bears defense should be able to generate production through pressure, and some of that will come through pass rusher Kahlil Mack. Mack returns to the team that traded him a year ago, and he should have his way in this matchup.
The game script looks excellent for Montgomery and the Bears defense, and it is not difficult to see the Bears ahead in this game and chewing up clock via the rushing attack. Both sides of this stack have a chance to be extremely productive, and it is an excellent option for GPP play in Week 5.
Sony Michel + Patriots Defense
FanDuel: Michel ($6,300) + Patriots ($5,500) = $11,800
DraftKings: Michel ($5,500) + Patriots ($4,300) = $9,800
Facing the No. 17 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 29 ranked run defense allowing 147.5 yards per game
Game Total - 43.5
Implied Totals - Patriots at 29 points and Redskins at 14.5 points
Game Line - New England Patriots -15
The New England Patriots are on the road versus the Washington Redskins on Sunday for a Week 5 matchup. The Patriots are a 15-point road favorite, and they should have no trouble putting points on the board via their offense. Their defense is capable of scoring too, and the Patriots are in a great spot in this matchup as the Redskins come into this game winless in 2019.
The Redskins have yielded a 4.7-yard per carry average which is eleventh-highest in the NFL. They have also given up five rushing plays of 20-plus yards, and no team in the NFL has allowed more. They have also allowed one rushing plays of 40-plus yards which are most in the NFL, and only four teams league-wide have given up more.
The game script is very positive for the Patriots ground game as they enter the contest as a 15-point point favorite, and they are going to run the ball effectively. Where they will generate their production is through heavy volume for the running backs, and that means big things for Michel in this game.
The Patriots defense has been phenomenal to this point in the season. They have registered 10 interceptions through four games and paired that with 18 sacks. Both are most in the NFL, and it is easy to see the Patriots defense having an easy time in this game.
The game script looks incredibly positive for Michel and the Patriots defense, and it is not difficult to see both sides of this stack as an excellent option for GPP play in Week 5.
