Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
Note: Additions have been made and added to this article to reflect injury concerns for several players. The original article was written Thursday AM and there are multiple situations that require context. All added information is in red and follows the original text.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
FanDuel: Rivers ($7,800) + Allen ($8,100) = $15,900
DraftKings: Rivers ($6,200) + Allen ($7,600) = $13,800
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 28 ranked pass defense allowing 291.3 yards per game
Game Total - 44.5
Implied Totals - Chargers at 30 points and Dolphins at 14.5 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Chargers -16
The Los Angeles Chargers travel to Florida to face the Miami Dolphins on Sunday for an AFC matchup in Week 4. The Dolphins are floundering in all phases, and they are a huge underdog at home this week. The Chargers have the highest implied total (30) of the week, and they are going to put points on the board in this contest.
Rivers has picked apart defenses as the Chargers throw the ball at a very high rate and are comfortable utilizing his arm to move the ball down the field. Rivers will be productive in this game, and he should be able to take apart the porous Dolphins defense on Sunday.
The Dolphins have surrendered 14 passing plays of 20+ yards and only five teams across the league have allowed more. They have also allowed 10 scores through the air which is most in the NFL through three weeks.
Also, only two teams in the NFL have fewer sacks than the (4) the Dolphins have registered. The Dolphins have not been able to apply pressure on the quarterback, and if Rivers has time to get comfortable, he will torch the Dolphins secondary.
Allen has been dominant in the season’s first three games. He has seen 42 targets in three games. He has converted 29 of those targets into catches for 404 yards and three scores, and the target volume should stay at a high level in Week 4.
The Chargers move Allen in their alignments to get him a free release off the line of scrimmage. Allen wins because he is incredibly quick and precise as a route runner, capable of creating easy separation to all parts of the field.
With a script so positive, there is no reason to think that Allen cannot produce numbers this week similar to what we have seen in the first three games, and that makes this stack very worthy in Week 4 for GPP play.
Pivot: Wide receiver Mike Williams ($6,100 at FanDuel and $4,800 at DraftKings) could be a very savvy, inexpensive play in Week 4, given the number of points the Chargers are expected to score. It would be wise to get him into your lineups. He is questionable with a back injury, and you want to see him practice this week to guarantee he is playing Sunday.
Note: Mike Williams has been ruled out for the game with a back injury. Wide receiver Dontrelle Inman ($4,800 at FanDuel and $3,000 at DraftKings) is a natural replacement and an intriguing option at his price. He should see a healthy dose of targets with Williams out and fellow receiver Traves Benjamin doubtful for the contest.
Patrick Mahomes II + Sammy Watkins
FanDuel: Mahomes ($9,200) + Watkins ($6,900) = $16,100
DraftKings: Mahomes ($7,500) + Watkins ($6,700) = $14,200
Facing the No. 10 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 22 ranked pass defense allowing 269.3 yards per game
Game Total - 54
Implied Totals - Chiefs at 30 points and Lions at 24 points
Game Line - Kansas City Chiefs -6
The Kansas City Chiefs are on the road versus the Detroit Lions in Week 4, and they are a six-point road favorite over a team that has played fairly well to start the season. This game has the highest total of the week (54), and the implied number for the Chiefs has them a touch over four scores (30). There will be plenty of opportunities for Mahomes and the passing attack in this contest.
Mahomes has started the 2019 season on a scorching pace. He has thrown for 10 scores to go along with 1195 yards in his first three games this season. The Chiefs offense is potent, and Mahomes is playing lights-out football right now.
The Lions have given up 14 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are sixth-most in the NFL. They have also allowed four passing plays of 40-plus yards which are fourth-most in the NFL. If the Chiefs do anything well, it is attacking the defense vertically, and the Lions have been susceptible in that area in the early stage of the season.
Interestingly, the Lions are doing a pretty solid job of allowing 6.8-yards per reception which ranks 11th best in the NFL. However, they have defended 126 passes which are most in the NFL to this point. Some of that is based on the teams the Lions have played to this point, but it does point to the potential for high volume for the Chiefs passing game this week.
Watkins has had a hot start to the season in 2019 as he has seen 32 targets in three games. He has registered 20 catches for 311 yards and three scores this season, and he looks to be one of the Chiefs primary weapons with receiver Tyreek Hill out.
The game script is very positive for the offense overall, and Mahomes and Watkins can put up points quickly which makes them a very intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 4.
Pivot: Wide receiver Mecole Hardman ($6,500 at FanDuel and $5,100 at DraftKings) is a big-play threat, and he has shown that ability over the past two weeks. He has not seen a bunch of targets, but he is cashing in on them with long touchdowns. He has a 42-yard score and an 83-yard score in the books, and he had another long touchdown called back to a penalty in Week 2. He is capable of getting to GPP value quickly.
Wide receiver Demarcus Robinson ($6,700 at FanDuel and $5,200 at DraftKings) has scored three touchdowns over the past two weeks. He has only caught nine passes, but there is quality here. He should be considered in this high-scoring matchup.
Tight end Travis Kelce ($7,600 at FanDuel and $7,200 at DraftKings) is one of the premier tight ends in the game today. He is a focal point of the Chiefs offense, seeing 25 targets through three games. He has 17 catches for 284 yards and one score to this point of the season.
Note that the Lions may double-team Kelce in this matchup like they did with Eagles tight Zach Ertz last week in the second half. Ertz was very limited in the second half, and if there is merit to the concept, then it would be smart to fade Kelce and start the other options.
FanDuel: Goff ($7,700) + Cooks ($7,300) = $15,000
DraftKings: Goff ($6,300) + Cooks ($6,200) = $12,500
Facing the No. 13 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 21 ranked pass defense allowing 261 yards per game
Game Total - 49.5
Implied Totals - Rams at 30 points and Buccaneers at 19.5 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Rams -10
The Los Angeles Rams are home versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday for a Week 4 NFC matchup. The Rams have the highest implied total of the week (30) and are forecast to score four-plus touchdowns in this matchup.
Goff has come out of the gate slowly, but he looked solid in the second half last week versus the Browns. He draws a Buccaneers defense that was just torched by rookie quarterback Daniel Jones and the New York Giants.
The Buccaneers have allowed 11 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and only 12 teams across the league have yielded more. The Buccaneers have also allowed four passing plays of 40-plus yards which is fourth-most in the NFL. The Rams can hurt the Buccaneers with their vertical passing attack, and that is where Cooks wins.
Cooks has blazing speed, is capable of taking the top off the defense in a flash, and can score fantasy points very quickly. The game script is very positive for Cooks, and he should be able to take advantage and make plays down the field.
The Buccaneers offense is potent, and it can push the Rams to keep throwing the football. If that happens, it means great things for this stack, making it worthy of selection for GPP play in Week 4.
Pivot: Wide receivers Robert Woods ($7,100 at FanDuel and $6,100 at DraftKings) and Cooper Kupp ($7,000 at FanDuel and $6,500 at DraftKings) are also very intriguing options this week. Both can make plays and are essential parts of the Rams passing attack, and rostering them makes sense.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Keenum ($7,200) + McLaurin ($6,300) = $13,500
DraftKings: Keenum ($4,900) + McLaurin ($4,500) = $9,400
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 32 ranked pass defense allowing 332.3 yards per game
Game Total - 49
Implied Totals - Redskins at 23 points and Giants at 26 points
Game Line - New York Giants -3
The Washington Redskins travel to the Meadowlands to take on the New York Giants for a Week 4 NFC East showdown. This game has the potential to be a very high scoring game as both teams have potent offenses and are vulnerable on defense. This game has the third-highest total of the week (49) and is a matchup that has shootout potential.
The Giants defense is struggling to defend the pass, and the Redskins passing attack has been surprisingly potent to start the season. Teams have gashed the Giants through the air and are averaging 10.5 yards per attempt which is worst in the NFL.
The Giants have given up eight scores through the air which is the fourth-most in the NFL. Also, they have given up 16 passing plays of 20+ yards which are second-most in the league. The Giants have given up six passing plays of 40+ yards which are the most allowed in the NFL.
The Giants have yielded a quarterback rating of 124.9 which is second-highest in the NFL. Considering the Giants have only defended 99 passes to date (10th fewest in the NFL) and projecting the Redskins to throw more on Sunday, it is not difficult to see the Redskins have a huge day on Sunday through the air.
Keenum is an aging veteran, but he has a glorious matchup this week, and he should produce at a high level. He has started the season on a tear, throwing for seven touchdowns and 933 yards in three games.
McLaurin has exploded onto the scene and showcased vertical playmaking ability in the season’s first three weeks. He is making plays, and Keenum is looking his way. He has registered 24 targets and caught 16 passes for 257 yards and three scores to date. I suspect McLaurin will be rostered in a lot of lineups this week, and that warrants consideration.
While there is nothing in this matchup that does not point to a big day for the Redskins passing game, there is some risk here that needs to be considered. Keenum is banged up with a foot injury, and there is tremendous risk in playing him. There is risk that he may re-injure himself during the game which would crush a lineup.
His status must be monitored throughout the week to ensure he will play on Sunday. However, you must be comfortable with him blowing up your lineup with a re-injury before your decide to roster this stack.
Note: The good news is that Keenum looks good to go as he practiced Thursday in full. The bad news comes via a hamstring injury that popped up for McLaurin. McLaurin is a game-time decision and while it was already a risky stack, it now becomes a close your eyes and swing for the fences type of stack. Proceed with caution here.
Matthew Stafford + Kenny Golladay
FanDuel: Stafford ($6,900) + Golladay ($6,700) = $13,600
DraftKings: Stafford ($5,500) + Golladay ($5,900) = $11,400
Facing the No. 9 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 19 ranked pass defense allowing 258 yards per game
Game Total - 54
Implied Totals - Lions at 24 points and Chiefs at 30 points
Game Line - Detroit Lions +6
The Detroit Lions are at home in Week 4 as they bring the Kansas City Chiefs to town for a potentially high-scoring matchup. This game has the highest total of the week (54), and it is clear that the expectation is that both teams will put points on the board in this contest.
The Chiefs are going to score points as their offense is virtually unstoppable, but they score at a pace that puts their defense in jeopardy. The Chiefs do a solid job, but they score quickly (and so much) that the defense gives up points later in games because of how many passing plays they have to defend. They have defended 114 passes which are eight-most in the NFL.
The Chiefs do a good job in pass defense, and they have only given up 12 passing plays of 20+ yards and only 10 teams in the NFL have allowed more. That is a good number for them considering how their games have played out. Teams are getting to the Chiefs through volume, and that is the expectation in this matchup.
Stafford has looked relatively sharp in offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell’s offense to start the season, but he will need to make plays in this matchup to keep his team in the game. The Lions are expected to score three-plus touchdowns, and it is not hard to see this game going over the total, with the Lions scoring more points than expected.
If the Lions can get to four touchdowns with the passing attack leading the way, he will be an essential piece to a lineup. The Lions offense has gone to different receivers in each of their three first games. Tight end T.J. Hockenson and receiver Danny Amendola each had a big first week, and Golladay had a giant second week. Last week it was receiver Marvin Jones’ turn, and he delivered.
Golladay is the first option in the Lions passing attack. Golladay has seen 27 targets through three games, and he has converted 14 into catches. He has 176 yards receiving and two touchdowns in 2019, and he sees enough volume that he should be a safe start this week.
Allow me to go over my thought process as to how I think this game might play out, and where the risk may be. The Chiefs are going to come out of the tunnel throwing, and I expect them to get out to a lead in this game. I am not sure how you stop their offense as they have been lights out through three games.
Stafford has been relatively protected in 2019, almost like a pitched on a pitch count. He hasn’t been sacked in the past two games, and he has been productive to a point. Last week the Lions worked out to a lead and got conservative at multiple points in the game when the pass was working. There is a feeling that they are trying to keep him from unnecessary contact, and there is the risk with this stack.
We know the Chiefs are going to come out fast, likely scoring and racing out to a lead. The thought process behind rostering this stack is that forces Stafford to play catch up, taking advantage of a tired Chiefs defense. But, if the Chiefs get out too far, will the Lions get conservative and not expose their quarterback in a game that is out of reach?
Pivot: Wide receivers Marvin Jones Jr ($5,900 at FanDuel and $5,400 at DraftKings) is a very intriguing option at his price. The outlook for the Lions passing attack is very positive, and he can pay dividends if Stafford looks his way.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson ($5,200 at FanDuel and $3,300 at DraftKings) has been quiet the past two weeks after exploding onto the scene in Week 1. He is an important piece of the offense, but the Lions do have answers if the Chiefs take him away. The Chiefs did give up six catches to Raiders tight end Darren Waller in Week 2, and they surrendered nine catches to the trio of tight ends the Ravens deploy in Week 3.
Note: Stafford popped up on the injury report Friday with a back injury. He nursed back problems last season and it limited his mobility and production. The Lions have been very cautious with Stafford this year, going all the way back to training camp. His injury adds extra risk in the scenario laid out above.
RB/DST Stacks
Marlon Mack + Colts Defense
FanDuel: Mack ($7,300) + Colts ($4,200) = $11,500
DraftKings: Mack ($6,100) + Colts ($3,100) = $9,200
Facing the No. 16 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 19 ranked run defense allowing 112.3 yards per game
Game Total - 45
Implied Totals - Colts at 26 points and Raiders at 19 points
Game Line - Indianapolis Colts -7
The Indianapolis Colts are at home versus the Oakland Raiders on Sunday for a Week 4 AFC matchup. The Colts are a seven-point home favorite, and Mack and the running game should have plenty of opportunities to make plays in this game.
The Raiders have yielded four runs of 20-plus yards, and only one team across the league allows more. The Raiders have surrendered three scores on the ground. Only eight teams in the NFL have allowed more rushing touchdowns. With expanded volume, it is easy to see a path for productivity for Mack and the Colts rushing attack.
The Raiders will have to rely on their aerial attack to stay in this game, and that means there is potential for sacks and turnovers for the Colts defense. Only 12 teams in the NFL have registered more sacks than the Colts through three games.
The game script looks outstanding for Mack and the Colts defense, and it is not difficult to see the Colts ahead in this game and chewing up clock via the rushing attack. Both sides of this stack have a chance to be extremely productive, and it is an excellent option for GPP play in Week 4.
Austin Ekeler + Chargers Defense
FanDuel: Ekeler ($8,100) + Chargers ($5,300) = $13,400
DraftKings: Ekeler ($8,000) + Chargers ($3,800) = $11,800
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 32 ranked run defense allowing 208 yards per game
Game Total - 44.5
Implied Totals - Chargers at 30 points and Dolphins at 14.5 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Chargers -16
The Los Angeles Chargers are on the road versus the Miami Dolphins on Sunday for a Week 4 AFC matchup. The Chargers are a 16-point road favorite, and they should have no trouble putting points on the board via their offense. Their defense is capable of production and is in a great spot in this matchup as the Dolphins have been torched in each way in 2019.
The Dolphins have allowed six scores on the ground which is most in the NFL. They have yielded a 5.4-yard per carry average which is second-highest in the NFL. The Dolphins have given up three rushing plays of 20-plus yards, and only six teams in the NFL have allowed more. They have also allowed two rushing plays of 40+ yards which are most in the NFL.
The Chargers have struggled a touch in 2019, but they can generate pressure on the quarterback. That pressure can translate to turnovers, and the Dolphins have allowed 13 sacks through three games which are third-most in the NFL. They have also thrown six interceptions in 2019 which are most in the NFL. The Chargers defense will have chances to get to GPP value in this contest.
The game script looks ultra-positive for Ekeler and the Chargers defense, and it is not difficult to see both sides of this stack as an excellent option for GPP play in Week 4.
