The running back landscape is littered with potential big values or landmines depending on your take on their outlook. Any positive outlooks for Week 4?
PHIL ALEXANDER
Following the Raiders one-sided loss to Minnesota, Jon Gruden told reporters, "We've got to get more out of Josh (Jacobs) as a receiver." It's easy to write off anything Gruden says as coach speak, but consider the facts:
- Jacobs was a polished pass-catcher coming out of Alabama
- He was routinely split out wide during offseason practices
- The Raiders haven't gotten anywhere by taking him off the field in hurry-up situations in favor of Jalen Richard or DeAndre Washington.
JASON WOOD
As I mentioned in another DFS roundtable, this is the last week to strongly consider regression plays based on what's happened this year versus what we saw from players in 2018. There are a few excellent candidates, and having exposure to Todd Gurley, Chris Carson, and Sony Michel makes a ton of sense this week. They're not top options but are worth considering in a diversified field.
JAMES BRIMACOMBE
Kenyan Drake on the radar as his role grows in Miami rotation? Only 16-point underdogs this week?
Tampa Bay has allowed the least fantasy points to running backs through the first three weeks. This is probably not the week you want to roll with Gurley.
WILL GRANT
I am not going anywhere near the Miami offense in DFS. They are averaging 10 points per game as a team - so anyone on offense can be counted on for one score at most and only if you guess right. Best case scenario is they get down early and have to pass a ton - but that favors the wide receivers, not the running backs.
It's not Josh Jacobs that's the issue in Oakland - they don't throw to running backs at all. Over the first three games, running backs have just 8 total receptions. Jacobs has the most yards with his lone catch for 28. The Raiders have a tough match on the road against the Colts who refuse to lay down even though Andrew Luck retired. With less than 20 points as a projected total for the Raiders, it's hard to see Jacobs reaching the end zone once, much less multiple times.
James White missed last week due to his wife giving birth, but he may be back in the lineup this week. The Patriots didn't miss him though with Rex Burkhead getting the biggest lift. Michel still leads the team with 45 rushing attempts, but he's not involved in the passing game and is averaging only 2.4 YPC. Buffalo's defense is averaging less than 88 rushing yards per game this season, meaning anyone who runs the ball in New England this week will have limited upside. I'd fade Michel this week.
With Ito Smith still not practicing due to his concussion last week, Devonta Freeman is a safe bet to play this week and should get a majority of the running opportunities. The Falcons are struggling and this week's game against the Titans gives them a chance to get back to .500. While his salary isn't bargain basement, it's low enough for you to plug him in a couple of lineups.
This is a make or break week for Todd Gurley. With a 30-point projected total, the Rams are expected to roll all over Tampa Bay. Gurley's averagng 4.6 YPC - the problem is the Rams are just not giving him the ball enough. With just 16 touches a game, there hasn't been enough opportunity for him to really go off. I think he breaks the '20 touches' mark this week and he has an opportunity to reach value based on his relatively low salary compared to previous seasons. Don't expect buckets of scoring though - Tampa's run defense is #7 in the league, with nearly identical stats to Chicago's. Gurley's another guy you want a couple shares of this week but temper your expectations.
Rashaad Penny is still not practicing due to a Hamstring injury, and his status for this weekend is in question. Carson's fumbling is causing folks to question his status as the lead back, but at this point, he still looks like the best option. Arizona is allowing almost 5 yards per carry and the Seahawks will want to control the clock and keep the Cardinal offense off the field. I think Carson is a safe (ish) play this week - just hope like hell that he holds on to the ball. If he can, he'll have a decent game and should post some decent numbers.
JUSTIN HOWE
When it comes to the New England backfield, I’m not buying too heavily into last week. Ever. Recent trends mean little to this brain trust, so I don’t think their value fluctuates that much. Sony Michel carries a weekly, matchup-proof ceiling of 100+ yards and multiple touchdowns. James White could catch nine passes and two touchdowns at a moment’s notice. Rex Burkhead could be the week’s super-secret weapon and take on 15 touches. So, week after week, I’ll sprinkle all three into a GPP buffet based on those ceilings.
